Why a major primary challenge for Biden is so unlikely

The Democratic anxiety that has surrounded President Biden for more than a year has accelerated in recent weeks as his approval ratings have remained stubbornly low and polls have shown he may lose to former President Donald J. Trump.

That fear has crystallized into one question, repeated like a drum roll: Can’t some major Democrat challenge him? Someone more prominent than Marianne Williamson or Dean Phillips?

The answer: In theory, certainly. In practice, the prospects are slim.

There are several reasons for this, most of which boil down to the fact that it is very difficult to run a successful primary campaign against a sitting president. And that at this point, just two months before the elections start, wouldn’t be feasible anyway.

What makes it even more difficult for a potential challenger is that Mr. Biden remains relatively popular among Democratic voters. According to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, 79 percent of party voters in six battleground states somewhat or strongly approve of his performance, which doesn’t leave much room for a new Democrat.

“Logistically it’s impossible,” said Tim Hogan, a Democratic strategist who has worked for Hillary Clinton and Amy Klobuchar. “Politically speaking, it is a suicide mission.”

Voting deadlines are approaching or have passed

To appear on each state’s primary ballot, candidates must submit paperwork, along with, in many cases, a hefty filing fee and hundreds or even thousands of voter signatures.

The deadlines for these submissions have already passed in South Carolina and Nevada, the first two states on the Democratic calendar; in New Hampshire, where an unsanctioned primary will be held in January; and in Alabama and Arkansas.

Michigan, another early voting state, released its list of candidates this month. The option to be added to the ballot there will close in mid-December. The deadline is similar for California, which will have more delegates than any other state; and for Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Maine, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia.

So even if a candidate were to enter the race tomorrow, he or she would not be able to get on the ballot in the first two primaries, and likely in many others as well. For example, it would be a tall order to collect 26,000 signatures in California before the December 15 deadline.

Soon, beating Mr. Biden goes from difficult to mathematically impossible.

Biden has a huge financial advantage

Biden’s reelection campaign, the Democratic National Committee and a joint fundraising committee said they raised a combined $71.3 million in the third quarter of this year. They reported having $90.5 million in cash on hand at the end of September.

That would put any new candidate at a huge disadvantage. Consider that on the Republican side, Mr. Trump announced revenue of $45.5 million in the third quarter alone, and his chief rivals, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, reported raising $15 million and had raised $11 million.

Big name politicians think long term

Many voters looking for a savior candidate are naturally looking to people seen as rising stars in the Democratic Party — like Governor Gavin Newsom of California, Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan or Governor JB Pritzker of Illinois.

But emerging stars generally want to maximize their opportunities at the right time.

“Ambitious candidates are risk-averse,” said Casey Dominguez, a professor of political science and international relations at the University of San Diego who studies primaries. “They don’t want to ruin their chances of becoming a successful presidential candidate by becoming a failed presidential candidate, especially when you’re running against a sitting president, potentially dividing the party.”

Crucially, there has been no precedent for candidates to look to for a path in the last fifty years.

Pat Buchanan, who challenged unpopular President George Bush in 1992, gave Bush an unexpectedly close call in New Hampshire, but ultimately failed to win a single primary. Edward M. Kennedy, who challenged unpopular President Jimmy Carter in 1980, won twelve states and contested the nomination all the way to the Democratic Convention, but fell short of a majority.

“History tells a story,” said Barbara Norrander, a professor emeritus at the University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy who studies presidential primaries. “Ted Kennedy versus Jimmy Carter 1980 is what you look back at, and Kennedy had a lot of upside going for him, but he wasn’t able to dethrone Carter. So it is very unlikely that anyone can dethrone a sitting president today.”

Democrats are concerned about Biden’s weakening

The driving force behind many Democrats’ desire to jettison Biden is the fear of a new Trump presidency. But the same driving force is behind other Democrats’ desire to stick with him.

Mr. Biden’s vulnerabilities, including his age and low approval ratings, are very real. But the electoral benefits of an established position, universal name recognition and an established campaign organization are also real.

At this point, there’s “simply no way for a new candidate to build momentum and get the resources they need,” Mr. Hogan said.

Potential challengers must also weigh the possibility that a primary fight could weaken Mr. Biden in the general election, even if he were to prevail. Although there is no consensus, some historians believe that key issues hurt Mr. Bush and Mr. Carter in 1992 and 1980.

“No one wants to be the person who divided the party and helped elect Donald Trump,” Professor Dominguez said.

There is no ‘generic democrat’

Each challenger would come with its own weaknesses that would set off one Democratic faction or the other and be exploited by Republicans over the long months of a general election campaign – a reality not necessarily reflected in polls showing a named Democratic candidate performs better than the other. Mr. Biden.

“You can’t run a generic Democrat,” Mr. Hogan said. “You have to run a person.”

Take Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, who entered the race in October. After a debut of around 7.5 percent in the FiveThirtyEight polling averageit soon dropped to about 4 percent.

That reality played out in 1968, the only time in modern history that an incumbent president was successfully challenged in his party’s primaries.

Two challengers with significant name recognition and support – Eugene McCarthy and Robert F. Kennedy – helped push President Lyndon B. Johnson not to seek re-election. He announced his decision in March 1968, as the primaries were underway. In August, his vice president, Hubert Humphrey, won the nomination against a painfully divided Democratic Party.

Humphrey lost the general election with 191 electoral votes to Richard Nixon’s 301.

What happens if Biden can’t run?

To state the obvious, all considerations are what they are because Mr. Biden is a candidate. If that were to change – if he were to have a health crisis, for example – the party would be in a difficult situation.

If he withdrew just before or early in the primary season, voters would be limited to the other options already in the race. It is highly unlikely that ballot access deadlines, which are set by individual states and not national party officials, will reopen.

If he withdrew later in the primary season — after winning enough delegates in the early primaries that no candidate could surpass him — the nomination would be decided at the Democratic National Convention in August, where delegates have the final say in voting. choosing a candidate. nominee. That would also be the case if he withdrew between the primaries and the convention.