After four months of war, Biden and Netanyahu have different timetables

President Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel each discussed the future of the Gaza fight this week, speaking just a day apart but worlds apart in a way that captured the essential tension between the two men after more than four months of fighting. to fight.

Mr. Netanyahu spoke of war and how it would continue even if there is a temporary ceasefire to secure the release of hostages. “slightly delayed.” Mr Biden spoke about peace and how such a ceasefire would be possible ‘change the dynamics’ This would lead to a broader realignment that would ultimately end the underlying conflict that has defined the Middle East for generations.

The disparity in views reflects the opposing political calendars on which the two leaders operate. Mr. Netanyahu has a compelling interest in prolonging the war against Hamas to delay the day of judgment when he will be held accountable for failing to prevent the October 7 terrorist attack. Biden, by contrast, has a powerful incentive to end the war as quickly as possible to curb anger among his party’s left wing before the re-election campaign in the fall, when he will need all the support he can get.

At the same time, everyone has reason to think he can get a better deal if the other loses his post. Mr Biden’s advisers are well aware that Netanyahu’s government could fall in response to the terrorist attack, while the Israeli prime minister, who goes by the nickname Bibi, may prefer to buy time until November for in case former President Donald J. Trump regains power. White House.

“It’s absolutely fair to say that Biden and Bibi are on different political timetables regarding the war in Gaza — and I think it’s becoming an increasingly important part of the equation,” said Frank Lowenstein, a former special envoy for peace in the Middle East under President Barack Obama. .

The differing objectives are playing out this week as negotiators try to hammer out a hostage deal before the Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins next month. Mr Biden said on Monday that US-mediated talks were close to an agreement and that he expected a ceasefire to come into effect by the end of this weekend. But that depends on whether Netanyahu agrees to a deal with Hamas.

The relationship between the two men has been complicated over the past four months. While they hugged on an airport tarmac in Tel Aviv When Mr. Biden visited just days after the terrorist attack that killed 1,200 people, their phone conversations became increasingly tense as they argued about the Israeli military operation that has claimed nearly 30,000 lives in Gaza.

At one point in December, the conversation became so heated that Mr. Biden declared he was done and hung up the phone. previously reported by Axios. Publicly, Mr. Biden has resisted a more open split, continuing to support Israel’s right to defend itself and still describing himself as a Zionist, as he did again on Monday, even as he complained that “there is too much there are a lot of innocent people being killed.”

Mr Netanyahu has been more willing to publicly defy Mr Biden, a position that allows him to argue that he is the only person capable of standing up to US pressure for a two-state solution to the Palestinian dispute – and therefore must be preserved. in office, regardless of the shortcomings in the run-up to October 7.

“The further Netanyahu gets away from October 7, the less responsible and accountable he will be held, in his view,” said Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli consul general in New York. “And as time goes beyond October 7, it also gets closer to November 5,” the US elections that could return Trump to power.

“But it goes deeper than that,” he added. “Netanyahu, I think, is looking for a direct confrontation with Biden because that is good for his political interests. He’s trying to change the narrative.”

However, it is a risky game. It has become clearer than ever how dependent Israel really is on the United States – not only for the ammunition it uses in its war against Hamas, but also for its defense in the international arena, where Washington vetoed repeated UN Security Council resolutions and supported Israel at the International Court of Justice against calls for unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank.

Moreover, Mr. Biden is offering Mr. Netanyahu something the Israeli really wants: the prospect of normalizing diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, which would represent a paradigm shift for the Jewish state after three-quarters of a century in a hostile neighborhood and the kind of historic achievement that any Prime Minister would want for his legacy. Mr. Biden’s point is that such a breakthrough can only come if the war is ended and a Palestinian state is on the table.

Mr. Biden appeared to make something of a concession to Mr. Netanyahu on that front an interview on “Late Night With Seth Meyers” He made clear Monday that he was not pushing for “an immediate two-state solution, but a process to reach a two-state solution.” Yet it is unclear whether Mr Netanyahu, who has opposed such a solution for much of his long career, could even accept a trial.

Part of the challenge for Mr. Biden is that when it comes to the military campaign, it is not just a matter of the president versus the prime minister. The Israeli political establishment across the spectrum, from left to center to right, supports the war against Hamas after the terrorist attack that traumatized the country. There is little sympathy for the Palestinians in Gaza, even among Netanyahu’s political opponents.

But there is daylight between Mr Netanyahu and other political figures on the hostage issue. While he has expressed a hard line during the negotiations to pause the fighting to secure the release of some of the approximately 100 people He was captured on October 7 and continues to be held by Hamas. Others in the government, families of the hostages and protesters on the streets have pushed him to do more to free them.

Biden administration officials see this as a way to drive a wedge between Mr. Netanyahu and the rest of his allies of convenience in the War Cabinet. In this view, the prime minister either accepts a ceasefire hostage situation or loses the critical support he has counted on to stay in power.

For his part, Mr. Netanyahu has his own interest in separating Mr. Biden from his own political coalition. “Bibi could even gain by driving a wedge between Biden and the Arab-American community — marginalizing them politically if not defeating Biden,” Mr. Lowenstein said.

That played out on Tuesday in Michigan, where Arab-American voters and other supporters of the Palestinians were present voted ‘uncommitted’ in the Democratic primaries in protest of Mr. Biden’s support for Israel. Some saw Biden’s optimistic statement Monday that a ceasefire was near, which came in response to a reporter’s question during a visit to a New York ice cream shop, as a last-minute attempt to calm anger in Michigan conjure.

Mr. Netanyahu is “entirely motivated by his own political survival — and also by avoiding legal sanctions,” said Mara Rudman, a former deputy special envoy for Middle East policy under Mr. Obama. “And I suspect that Netanyahu would see playing a role in ousting Biden as a win-win situation, no matter how much that actually goes against the interests of the Israeli – and Palestinian – people.”

If he cannot dislodge Mr. Biden, he may blame him, some Israeli analysts said. Netanyahu’s oft-stated goal of destroying Hamas may be militarily unrealistic, according to security analysts, so if he fails to achieve that goal, the prime minister could point to US pressure as the reason.

“Biden goes out, loses votes, people scream genocide at him wherever he goes,” said Mitchell Barak, an Israeli pollster and analyst who worked as an aide to Netanyahu in the 1990s. “And Netanyahu is not giving him any support, because Biden is a good scapegoat for why Netanyahu will not achieve a total victory.”

“We are receiving an unprecedented level of support from Biden, militarily, morally, emotionally and globally,” he added. “For our part, we give it back with petty arguments, internal political statements and extremism to incite people.”

The Biden team has become increasingly frustrated as a result. The president’s advisers had hoped to have the war concluded by early January so everyone could focus on Gaza reconstruction efforts and peace efforts leading to Palestinian autonomy by the summer.

That way, the theory went, left-wing voters and Arab Americans angry at Biden, especially those in swing states like Michigan, might have calmed down to some extent and, albeit reluctantly, been moved to the president’s lap in time have returned to defeat Mr Biden. Trump.

But it hasn’t happened that way, at least not yet. January is over and February is almost as good. The calendar keeps sliding. Biden and Netanyahu’s schedules are in danger of clashing.