War in Ukraine has weakened Putin, writes CIA director

The war in Ukraine has “quietly eroded” the power of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, CIA Director William J. Burns wrote in an essay published Tuesday.

Although Putin's grip on power was unlikely to weaken anytime soon, Mr. Burns wrote in Foreign Affairsdiscontent had 'gnawed away at the Russian leadership and the Russian people', allowing the CIA to recruit more spies.

The agency has created a series of videos aimed at recruiting Russian officials. The most recent, released last week, encourages the Russians to provide information to the CIA securely using a secure browser on the dark web. The latest video appeals to their anger over corruption within the Russian government.

While the U.S. government would not say how many spies were recruited from the videos, officials said the agency would not have continued pushing them on Telegram and YouTube if they were ineffective. Mr. Burns echoed this sentiment in his article.

“That undercurrent of discontent creates a once-in-a-generation recruiting opportunity for the CIA,” he wrote. “We won't let it go to waste.”

Part of Putin's weakness stems from his handling of last year's mutiny by members of Russia's most powerful mercenary group. He looked “aloof and indecisive” in the face of the mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, Mr. Burns wrote.

Mr. Burns wrote that Mr. Putin “eventually settled his score with Prigozhin,” a reference to the mercenary leader's death in a suspicious plane crash. Still, the criticism of Russia's leadership that Mr. Prigozhin leveled at the Russian people “will not go away anytime soon,” Mr. Burns wrote.

“For many in Russia's elite, the question was not so much whether the emperor had no clothes, but rather why it took so long to get dressed,” Mr Burns said.

Russia has rebuilt its military industrial production, but its economy has been deeply wounded by the war, he said. And in the long run, Russia “seals its fate” as a vassal of China, dependent on Beijing for trade and technology.

Ukraine faces challenges in the war but has achieved dramatic results. Russia's efforts to modernize its military have been “hollowed out” and 315,000 Russians have been killed or wounded, Mr Burns wrote.

Ukraine has also suffered heavy losses, although Mr Burns did not comment directly on that. U.S. officials have struggled to estimate exactly how many lives have been lost in Ukraine.

Putin's strategy is to further crush Ukraine and try to survive Western support. But Ukraine, Mr. Burns wrote, can “pierce Putin's arrogance” by launching attacks deeper behind the hardened front lines of the battlefield. In the past, U.S. officials have worried that Ukraine's attacks could lead Russia to escalate, possibly even conducting a nuclear test as a warning to Ukraine and the West.

Mr Burns acknowledged that concerns about nuclear escalation were valid, but suggested they should not be exaggerated.

“Putin could again engage in nuclear saber-rattling, and it would be foolish to completely dismiss escalating risks,” he wrote. “But it would be just as foolish to be unnecessarily intimidated by them.”

The key to Ukraine's success, Mr. Burns wrote, was continuing to provide American aid.

Congress is considering a new military aid package, but it has become embroiled in the politics of a border and immigration deal on Capitol Hill.

Cutting off Ukraine would be a big mistake, Mr. Burns wrote.

“Maintaining the flow of arms will put Ukraine in a stronger position when an opportunity for serious negotiations arises,” Burns said. “It offers an opportunity to ensure a long-term victory for Ukraine and a strategic loss for Russia; Ukraine could secure and rebuild its sovereignty, while Russia would have to bear the lasting costs of Putin's folly.”

The Russian invasion of Ukraine heralded a new era for the CIA, Burns wrote. He spoke about the early warning of the coming invasion that intelligence agencies gave to the Biden administration, Ukraine and allies.

But the new era, Mr Burns said, was also about harnessing the benefits of new technologies, including artificial intelligence. These have changed the way the CIA collects intelligence, allowing it to analyze information more quickly and efficiently.

“No matter how much the world changes, espionage remains an interaction between people and technology,” he wrote.

While there will be secrets that only humans can collect, Mr. Burns continued, the CIA must “combine mastery of emerging technologies with the people-to-people skills and individual grit that have always been at the heart of our profession.”