The data shows that, even though the FED has increased the interest to a reach of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, the highest level in more than twenty years, the increase has not been sufficient to put the economy on the brakes . In fact, growth remains faster than the pace that according to many predictors can be sustained in the longer term.

Fed-functionarissen voorspelden zelf in december dat ze dit jaar drie renteverlagingen zouden doorvoeren naarmate de inflatie gestaag afkoelde. Toch vergt het verlagen van de rente tegen zo'n robuuste achtergrond enige uitleg. Doorgaans probeert de Fed de economie in evenwicht te houden: door de rente te verlagen om de kredietverlening en de uitgaven aan te wakkeren en de zaken te bespoedigen wanneer de groei zwak is, en deze te verhogen om de groei af te koelen om ervoor te zorgen dat de vraag niet oververhit raakt en de inflatie verder opdrijft. .

The economic resilience has led to Wall Street investors suspect that central bankers may wait longer to lower interest rates. Eerder gokten ze zwaar op een daling in maart, maar schatten de kansen nu slechts 50-50 in. But, some economists said, there could be good reasons for the Fed to lower the financing costs, even if the economy continues to move.

The Central Bank will not release any new economic projections on Wednesday, but Jerome H. Powell, chairman of the FED, could give details about the way of thinking of the FED during his press conference after the 2 -hour policy decision.

Let's unpack that. The main edent of the FED is displayed in what economists call 'nominal' terms. That means that if we say that the interest today is around 5.3 percent, that figure does not take into account how quickly prices rise.

Maar veel experts zijn van mening dat wat er werkelijk toe doet voor de economie het niveau van de rentetarieven is, nadat deze zijn gecorrigeerd voor inflatie. Finally, What investors and lenders take into account

As the price pressure decreases, the economically relevant real interest rates rise.

Als de inflatie bijvoorbeeld 4 procent bedraagt ​​en de rente is vastgesteld op 5,4 procent, is de reële rente 1,4 procent. But if inflation falls to 2 percent and the interest rate is set at 5.4 percent, the real interest rate is 3.4 percent.

That could be the key to the Fed's policy in 2024. Inflation has been slowing for months. That means that even though the interest rates are exactly where they were in July, they have increased in inflation -corrected terms – which is increasingly pressing the economy.

“Their goal at the moment is to keep the soft landing going,” says Julia Coronado, founder of Macropolicy Perspectives. “Waarom dan het risico lopen om het beleid aan te scherpen? De uitdaging is nu het balanceren van de risico's.”

It sounds strange, but the concept is simple: 'neutral' is the interest rate that keeps the economy growing at a healthy pace. If interest rates are above neutral, this is expected to weigh on growth. If interest rates are set lower than neutral, they are expected to stimulate growth.

At this point, officials believe the rate is neutral near of 2.5 percent. The fed funds rate is around 5.4 percent, which is well above neutral even after adjusting for inflation.

In short, interest rates are so high that officials expect them to severely burden the economy.

So why isn't growth slowing down more noticeably?

It takes some time for interest rates to take full effect, and these delays may be part of the answer. And the economy has slowed down due to a number of important measures. This way the number of vacancies is falling steadily.

But since consumer spending and overall growth remain firm, FED officials will probably remain on their guard that the interest rates may not weigh the economy as heavy as they had expected.

“The last thing they want to do here is to explain the mission,” says Gennadiy Goldberg, head of the American interest strategy at TD Securities. “I think they're going to be very careful about how they communicate this – and I think they should.”

The Fed will likely proceed cautiously.

“Early interest rate cuts could cause an increase in demand that could cause an upward pressure on prices,” said Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, in a speech on January 18.

At the same time, the current strong growth has been achieved when productivity improves: companies produce more with fewer employees. That could allow the economy to continue growing at a brisk pace without necessarily driving up inflation.

“The question is: can this be sustained?” said Blerina Uruci, chief U.S. economist at T. Rowe Price.

Mrs Uruci does not think that the strong economy will prevent the FED officials from starting with interest rates this spring, although she thinks it will encourage them to try to keep their options open in the future.

“They have the advantage of not having to commit in advance,” Ms. Uruci said of the Fed. “They must be careful.”