Fossil fuels and frustration at COP28
I’m in Dubai at the United Nations climate summit known as COP28, and the mood is decidedly mixed. Delegates arrive with high expectations of making progress in the global fight against climate change, but it’s impossible to ignore that the summit is being held in shiny new facilities built with oil money.
World leaders will begin speaking tomorrow, and over the next two weeks negotiators from nearly every country in the world will work to redouble their efforts to fight climate change.
And while hopes are high that countries will find ways to quickly reduce greenhouse gases and limit the use of coal, oil and gas, the reality is that fossil fuel emissions are still growing. Meanwhile, the destructive effects of climate change are worsening, with floods, fires, droughts and storms ravaging every corner of the world.
Frustrations with the UN process and the slow pace of progress are running high.
“How many years have we had COPs now?” said Avinash Persaud, climate advisor for Barbados. “If people had been forced to act during COP1, COP2 or COP15, we would have a different world.”
‘They went too far’
Many are outraged that the United Arab Emirates, one of the world’s largest oil producers, is hosting this year’s negotiations. The COP28 president, Sultan al-Jaber, is also the head of Adnoc, the state oil company.
An internal document obtained by the Center for Climate Reporting And the BBC showed that the UAE COP team was tasked with promoting oil and gas deals on the sidelines.
“There is skepticism about this COP – where it is located and who is leading it,” said Ani Dasgupta, president of the World Resources Institute, a research organization.
“They went too far by appointing the CEO of one of the largest – and in many ways one of the dirtiest – oil companies in the world to chair this year’s UN climate conference,” said former Vice President Al Gore. told me.
Al Jaber, who also heads the country’s renewable energy company, dismissed the BBC report as “false, untrue, inaccurate and not accurate.” He said he is committed to an ambitious climate pact by the end of the negotiations, but also made it clear that the UAE will continue to produce fossil fuels “as long as the market demands them.”
‘It’s up to us’
Despite the sense of disillusionment hanging over the process, COP28 is expected to attract some 70,000 participants, and negotiators from around the world will try to reach agreements on limiting emissions, increasing renewable energy sources and helping developing countries in dealing with disasters.
Recent developments offer a glimmer of hope. Two weeks ago, the US and China, the world’s two biggest polluters, agreed to accelerate efforts to boost renewable energy sources to replace fossil fuels, although they did not provide a timeline or other details. And rich countries may have finally made good on their pledge to provide $100 billion a year to help developing countries adapt to climate change, albeit four years too late, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said this month.
“I have not lost faith in multilateralism,” John Kerry, President Biden’s special envoy for climate change, told my colleague Lisa Friedman.
Kerry said it was unreasonable to think that an issue like climate change could only be tackled at the COP. “I don’t think the UN or any institution on its own has the capacity to solve the climate crisis,” he said.
On the contrary, he said, COP could help point the global community in the right direction, but individual countries needed to do the hard work to bend the emissions curve and ramp up renewable energy as quickly as possible.
“It’s up to us to get a result,” Kerry said.
John Miller, an analyst who studies the environmental policies of TD Cowen, the investment bank, said the COP process is still “probably the best format to discuss these kinds of global issues..”
“There is progress in these events, but it is happening at a pace that is likely to disappoint,” he added. “That doesn’t mean it’s all a farce.”
What to expect at COP28
You’ll see a lot of climate news over the next two weeks. My colleague Lisa Friedman is having a complete breakdown. Here are a few issues to keep an eye on:
The global inventory: This year’s summit will discuss the first formal assessment of whether countries are on track to achieve the goal set in Paris in 2015: limiting the increase in global average temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius ( 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. This is important because the evaluation could lay the foundation for ambitious actions that countries need to take in the future.
‘Loss and damage’: Negotiators are expected to finalize a fund they agreed last year to compensate the world’s most vulnerable countries for irreversible losses from climate change. Big questions remain about who will pay into the fund and who will have access to the money.
An agreement on fossil fuels: Many countries are pushing for an agreement to replace oil, gas and Goal with renewable energy. This could mean that at the end of the COP, language will be included in an agreement to phase out fossil fuels, although such an agreement is by no means guaranteed. Countries could also sign a deal triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, following the agreement signed by China and the US weeks ago.
Climate finance: Look for new investments and deals in clean energy and agriculture that can help developing countries reduce emissions and adapt to a warming world. Experts say the poorest countries require large amounts of capital, which many investors consider too risky.
— Manuela Andreoni
More about COP28
-
Researchers expect climate disinformation from Russia and China, fossil fuel companies and online provocateurs to peak during the summit.
-
The United Arab Emirates faces an urgent dilemma: it relies heavily on fossil fuel revenues, but climate change could make the country unliveable.
-
Vice President Kamala Harris will attend COP28 on Friday and Saturday.