Jeffries considers how to force a vote in Ukraine while keeping Democrats united

The standoff on Capitol Hill over sending vital military aid to Ukraine presents a critical test for Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the New York Democrat and minority leader who may hold the only remaining key to overcoming Republican opposition.

With the far right opposing the measure and Republican Chairman Mike Johnson unwilling to bring it up, Mr. Jeffries and other top Democrats are considering a number of long-term maneuvers to force it into the House. Once there, the $95 billion foreign aid bill, which appropriates $60.1 billion in financing for Ukraine, would almost certainly have enough bipartisan support to pass.

But that would require Mr. Jeffries to quell a backlash against the package in his own party, where left-wing lawmakers are deeply opposed to the $14.1 billion in security aid it would provide to Israel. Their resistance could make it harder for Mr. Jeffries to put an end to Mr. Johnson, which would likely require near-total Democratic unity, as well as some Republican support, to have any chance of success.

The legislation passed the Senate this month with strong bipartisan support and also enjoys broad support in the House of Representatives, where a large majority of Democrats are in favor and dozens of Republicans have consistently voted to strengthen Ukraine’s war effort.

But Mr. Johnson has rejected calls from both parties to put the foreign aid bill to a vote, a move that at least one right-wing lawmaker has said would call for his removal. The speaker and many other Republicans have said they have no intention of considering more aid to Ukraine without first securing the U.S. border with Mexico through tough immigration restrictions. And with former President Donald J. Trump keeping them off the campaign trail, there is a potentially high political price to pay for any Republican who crosses these lines.

That has led Democrats and some Republicans to start talking about the prospect of working together to bypass Mr. Johnson and get the measure on the floor. The options for this all require a majority, or 218 lawmakers, to agree. That threshold has become increasingly feasible for Democrats, given the shrinking Republican majority; the GOP now only has 219 votes, while the Democrats have 212.

But because most Republicans are highly unlikely to thwart their own party on this issue, Jeffries can’t afford much defection. That means he would have to convince most, if not all, of the progressive skeptics in his party to quell their concerns with aid to Israel long enough to get the measure to the floor.

“I want to support Ukraine, but it cannot come at the expense of more Palestinian children,” said Rep. Delia Ramirez, Democrat of Illinois and one of the would-be raiders.

While dozens of liberal Democrats harbor reservations about sending military aid to Israel, they are divided over whether they will simply vote against the bill or try to block it altogether.

“I wouldn’t be willing to sign another discharge petition,” Rep. Summer Lee, Democrat of Pennsylvania, said in an interview, referring to a maneuver that could force a bill to the floor if 218 lawmakers sign a petition demanding it. She said that financing military equipment for Israel as it launches a new attack on Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city, “without debate and without substantial change in behavior from us, and without conditions, I don’t think is the right way to deal with this ongoing problem.” to deal with.” conflict.”

Still others who expressed similar concerns said their doubts about the Israeli offensive could not keep the House from voting on a viable measure to arm Ukraine.

“The only way to get money to Ukraine is to bring up this whole package,” said Representative Jim McGovern of Massachusetts, the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee. He said he might ultimately oppose the bill, but believes “the process needs to move forward.”

In interviews, members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus suspected that most left-leaning Democrats would ultimately side with McGovern.

“I think most will sign it,” Rep. Raul Grijalva, Arizona Democrat and former chairman of the progressive group, said of a discharge request.

Even some of the most outspoken critics of unconditional aid in the House, such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Democrat of New York, hinted that they would not stand in the way of the bill gaining a positive or negative vote in the chamber. to get.

“I think we’re all on the same page here and working together as a caucus,” she said in an interview.

Democratic leaders, eager to support every last vote they can, have not yet determined what mechanism they will use to try to force Johnson’s hand.

Last week, Mr. McGovern introduced a measure that Democrats could use to try to bring the foreign aid bill to a vote through a discharge petition, possibly late next month. Mr. Jeffries has also reached out to some progressive members to ask if they would keep their signatures on an older discharge petition that Democrats drafted last spring to address the debt limit, if that became the mechanism to pass the foreign aid bill to get.

According to aides familiar with the private conversations who described them on condition of anonymity, the thought is that some left-leaning Democrats might find it more difficult to remove their names from a petition they have already signed than to remember their signatures. of a petition they have already signed. new measure.

Yet Democratic leaders are also hedging their bets with Mr. McGovern’s legislation, in case a new petition helps them win the support of mainstream Republicans, whose eventual support is crucial for any gambit to succeed.

At this point, not a single Republican has shown any interest in joining what for them would amount to a mutiny against their own party. Some top targets, such as Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, are promoting alternative legislation to send military aid to Ukraine and Israel without humanitarian assistance for civilians, in exchange for certain border provisions, including a one-year revival of the Trump administration’s Remain in Mexico policy. policy.

Seasoned Republicans in the House of Representatives are skeptical that this will change anytime soon.

“I’ve only seen a dismissal request work once in my 25 years here,” said Rep. Mike Simpson, Republican of Idaho. “It’s just not something where Republicans are willing to run over the speaker.”

Others suggested that Democrats’ maneuvering could increase pressure on Mr. Johnson enough to change his mind.

“Any speaker can get in the way of the will of the majority in the House of Representatives for a while — but not permanently,” Representative Patrick T. McHenry, Republican of North Carolina, said in an interview with CBS News this week. “I hope the speaker will see this in a very sensible way.”