Iceland lives in our future

I spent the first half of this week reporting in Iceland, and came away convinced that the country offers a window into our collective future in at least three important ways.

Iceland uses remarkably little fossil fuels to power its economy and heat its homes. Instead, 85 percent of the country's energy comes from domestically produced renewable energy sources. mainly geothermal energy and hydropower.

Thanks to its unique geology, Iceland can claim such a high percentage of renewable energy sources, the highest of any country in the world. The country sits atop an incredibly active volcanic zone, and six major geothermal power plants tap that underground heat to heat almost all of the country's homes.

Drive through the countryside and you can't miss the steam rising from the ground between the majestic fjords. This morning an active volcano started erupting in a town I visited just a few days ago.

Geothermal energy also produces about 20 percent of the country's electricity, with the rest coming from a robust network of hydroelectric power stations. The oil that Iceland burns is mainly used to power cars and trucks, as well as the boats that make up the country's large fishing fleet.

Iceland is a small and prosperous country that is unique, to say the least, in having such abundant geothermal and hydroelectric resources. But as we recently reported, new developments from the oil and gas sector are making geothermal energy possible in new locations. And as solar and wind power continue to expand at a rapid pace, it may not be long before more countries power their economies not with fossil fuels but with local, clean renewable energy.

Melting glaciers and fewer fish

Although Iceland is not a major emitter of global warming emissions, the effects of climate change are already transforming its landscape and economy.

One of the glaciers, Okjokull, does have that completely melted away. Over the next 200 years, scientists expect the rest – including the enormous Vatnajokull glacier, covering some 3,000 square kilometers – to disappear as well.

As large glaciers melt, research suggests their changing weight could trigger more volcanic and seismic activity. Underground vibrations are already damaging the pipes of some cities causing flash floods.

The warmer weather also has consequences for plants and animals. Iceland's native plants are threatened with extinction as temperatures rise and invasive species arrive. One of the country's most important fish, the capelin, has been disappearing intermittently as waters warmed across the country. And like all coastal cities around the world, Iceland's capital, Reykjavik, is threatened by rising sea levels.

Some of the climate disruptions Iceland faces will be unique, given its remoteness and specific geology and biodiversity. But as we saw this week in Chile, California and beyond, the rapidly warming planet will have profound effects on every corner of the Earth.

“Climate change is no longer something to joke about, in Iceland or anywhere else,” Gudni Johannesson, the president of Iceland, told my colleague Liz Alderman in 2019.

Capturing carbon

There is still a lot of pollution coming from Iceland. The booming tourism sector produces significant emissions through air travel. In fishing, another important industry, overfishing of natural stocks and the rise of open-water salmon farms pose environmental hazards. And heavy industry, including aluminum production, remains a major emitter of greenhouse gases.

That's all the more reason why Icelanders are excited about a small but growing company that's making an early foothold in the country: carbon capture. A local company, Carbfix, is leading the difficult work of capturing captured carbon dioxide and storing it underground. And Climeworks, a Swiss company leading in capturing carbon dioxide directly from the air, has set up its two largest facilities in Iceland, attracted by the promise of cheap, clean geothermal energy, and a suitable partner in Carbfix.

Both companies are just getting started. But in the coming years, carbon removal and storage are expected to become huge businesses, with similar facilities springing up around the world.

Even more record heat

Last year was by far the warmest year on Earth in a century and a half. And 2024 will be even worse.

Last month was the warmest January on record, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service announced today.

It was also the warmest January on record for the oceans, as you can see in the graph above. And sea temperatures continued to rise in the first few days of February, surpassing daily records set last August.

Oceans absorb most of the extra heat captured by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, making them a reliable indicator of how we are warming the planet. Practically speaking, warmer oceans provide more additional fuel for hurricanes and atmospheric river storms, and can disrupt marine life.

January sees average air temperatures, both on the continents and in the seas, surpassing all records for the given time of year for eight months in a row.

The main cause of all this heat is no mystery: fossil fuel burning, deforestation and other human activities have been steadily pushing the mercury up for more than a century. The current El Niño weather cycle is also releasing more ocean heat into the atmosphere.

But exactly why Earth has been so hot for so long in recent months remains a topic of debate among researchers. But there is no doubt about what action is needed if we want to turn the tide.

“Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to stop the rise in global temperatures,” Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus, said in a statement.

— Raymond Zhong and Elena Shao

Related: A global drop in CO2 emissions due to fewer volcanoes may have pushed the planet into its longest ice age, about 717 million years ago.