Here are 16 cities to watch as New Hampshire's results come in
With results coming in across the state on Tuesday evening, there are several places that could offer clues as to how the race is unfolding for Nikki Haley and former President Donald J. Trump.
In New Hampshire, election results are reported by cities rather than counties. Here are 16 cities to keep an eye on:
Bedford and Londonderry
These two purple cities between Nashua and Manchester are affluent suburbs that have been steadily growing since 2010 — and getting bluer, too.
In Bedford, Mr. Trump won by five points in 2016, but in 2020 the situation was reversed and Joseph R. Biden Jr. won. with three points. Independent voters who supported Mr. Trump in 2016 but favored Mr. Biden in 2020 will be a key contingent for Ms. Haley on Tuesday.
“She should do very well there. If Trump holds his own there or even wins, it will be a better night for him than the polls show,” said Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire who studies state politics and politics. has written about important places to look at.
Derry
Mr Trump easily carried Derry in both the general and primary elections in 2016 and 2020. There is little reason to doubt he will win there again, but exactly how many votes he gets could have interesting implications for the broader race.
If turnout is weak in Derry, it could indicate that enthusiasm for Trump is waning, said Anna Brown, director of Citizens Count, a nonpartisan voter education nonprofit. “Or if their turnout is very high, at that moment I look at: which way is it going? Do we have a lot of people jumping on Nikki Haley, or is this Trump just proving he's as strong as ever? she said.
Just don't confuse Derry with its neighbor, Londonderry. Derry is more conservative and rural than Londonderry, which has an upper middle income.
Sharon, Peterborough and Hancock
John Kasich, the former governor of Ohio who ran for the Republican nomination on a message of bipartisanship, won these three cities in 2016. Sharon went especially strong for Mr. Kasich, who took 31.7 percent of the vote to took home – more than double its statewide tally. result.
Mr. Scala, a professor at the University of New Hampshire, calls them “Kasich towns.”
“She has to do really well in these places,” he said of Ms. Haley. “Higher educated, affluent areas in general are places where she should do very well.”
These three cities are clustered along Route 202 west of Manchester and Nashua. A good night for Mr. Trump could mean he catches up with Ms. Haley there and crosses the western half of Hillsborough County.
Hannover, Lyme and Lebanon
These affluent, highly educated towns around Dartmouth College and the Dartmouth Hitchcock Medical Center should be full of the kind of voters who would support Ms. Haley over Mr. Trump. (He trails Ms. Haley by twelve points among college graduates, according to a CNN/UNH poll of primary voters).
So if Trump overperforms on this front, it could mean that moderate and liberal-leaning independents stayed home Tuesday instead of coming out to support Ms. Haley. Losing these voters, or winning them by only a narrow margin, could indicate that her base of support is much smaller than necessary.
Dr. Scala noted the only county in Iowa where Ms. Haley finished ahead of her rivals.
“The one county she narrowly won was Johnson County, home of the University of Iowa,” he said. “That to me is the worst-case scenario.”
East Kingston, Lancaster, Newmarket, Pembroke, Rochester, Sanbornton and Washington
The winner of the Republican primaries in these seven cities ultimately won statewide in every election since 1952.
That could change, of course – just look at what happened to Dixville Notch's in 2016 stripe of predicting the eventual Republican nominee. But keep an eye on them, if only to see if their streak holds.