In the battle for Menendez's Senate seat, the NJ governor's wife is left behind

New Jersey's first lady Tammy Murphy has broad institutional support as she vie for a seat in the U.S. Senate. She has also far outpaced her opponents in the race for campaign cash.

But the first independent poll of the campaign suggests she is significantly behind her main Democratic primary opponent, Rep. Andy Kim.

About 32 percent of New Jersey Democrats support Kim, a third-term congressman from South Jersey, compared with 20 percent support for Ms. Murphy, a first-time candidate, according to the survey released Friday by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

When voters were asked whether they “strongly supported” each of the candidates, Ms. Murphy trailed Mr. Kim by 11 points.

The Democratic primaries aren't until June and the race is only now starting to heat up.

Still, Dan Cassino, a Fairleigh Dickinson professor who conducted the poll, said Ms. Murphy had significant catching up to do, despite her name recognition appearing to surpass Mr. Kim's.

Mrs. Murphy has received support from a host of Democratic Party officials who have extraordinary power in state elections, including many who have financial incentives to remain in the good graces of her husband, Gov. Philip D. Murphy.

“In general, institutional support is sufficient to win a New Jersey primary,” Cassino said in a statement. “With Murphy out, this election is a test of whether provincial organizations still have the power to choose a candidate.”

It's been a decade since New Jersey had a competitive Senate primary, making it difficult to predict turnout. The unusual circumstances surrounding the race for a seat now held by Senator Robert Menendez, who is accused of taking bribes, are adding to the volatility.

Mr. Menendez, an elected official for five decades, has been abandoned by nearly all of the state's Democratic leaders, and his trial is set to begin a month before the June 4 primary. Still, the senator, who has pleaded not guilty to federal charges, has not ruled out running for re-election. Last week he stated that “all options” were on the table.

Menendez was the choice of 9 percent of the 504 Democratic voters Fairleigh Dickinson surveyed between January 21 and 28. A fourth announced candidate, Patricia Campos-Medina, a labor leader, was the choice of just 8 percent of voters. Larry Hamm, a prominent Newark activist who has not reported raising money, was not included in the survey, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Among Latino voters, Mr. Menendez was ahead of Mr. Kim, 15 percent to 10 percent. And Ms. Murphy defeated Mr. Kim among black voters by 24 percent to 16 percent, the poll showed.

Mrs. Murphy, an experienced fundraiser who helped run both of her husband's campaigns for governor, is expected to maintain a large cash advantage.

She grew up $3.2 million since they entered the race in mid-November. Mr. Kim, who took action the day after Mr. Menendez was indicted in September, has signed on $1.7 million in the past three months.

Because Mr. Kim started raising money earlier and was able to transfer money left over from previous congressional races, both candidates have roughly the same amount to spend: $2.7 million.

Both candidates are expected to have enough money to buy sufficient television advertising in the media markets in Philadelphia and New York so that they can reach voters' homes directly to introduce themselves. But Ms. Murphy's marriage could give her an extra advantage.

For the next two years, the governor, a second-term Democrat, will have the final say on all legislation, including a budget that exceeded $54 billion last year. This has created an incentive for people who do business with the state or rely on state funding to donate to Ms. Murphy's campaign.

In her first filing for the federal election on Wednesday, Ms. Murphy reported large donations from dozens of New Jersey lawyers, pharmaceutical and hospital executives and film and television industry officials. Mr. Kim also reported large donations from lawyers, financial executives and academics on Wednesday, but the majority of his donors gave less than $100.