Here’s how the protest vote has played out in recent primaries

While activist groups have urged Michigan Democrats to cast votes for “uncommitted” voters who want to object to President Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, the idea is to cast a protest vote bring nothing new against a shoo-in nominee. In previous non-competitive presidential primaries, the typical protest vote was about 7 percent.

The groups fighting for protest votes have set distinctly different targets for success, with one group aiming for 10 percent and another setting a goal of 10,000 votes – which will likely represent substantially less than 10 percent of the vote.

This chart shows protest votes by state during the 2020 Republican primaries, the 2012 Democratic primaries, and the 2004 Republican primaries. In each of these years, the incumbent president entered the primaries virtually unopposed. The proportion of protest votes includes ballots cast for ‘not recorded’, ‘none of names shown’, ‘no preference’ and minor candidates.

The share of protest votes can vary widely between states and elections.

One factor that could affect this is whether the primaries are open to voters not registered with the party. In 2012, Barack Obama, who ran for re-election with only token opposition in the primaries, won only 59 percent of the vote in the West Virginia primary. His opponent was Keith Judd, who was in prison at the time. West Virginia, like many Southern states, has a large number of registered Democrats who now vote Republican in presidential elections. Because it has a closed primary, those voters can only participate in the Democratic primaries. Michigan’s presidential primaries are open to all voters, regardless of affiliation.

Another factor is whether other statewide races are taking place on the same day, drawing voters who otherwise would not have turned out for the presidential primary contest. There are no other major races on the ballot Tuesday.