One year ago, NFL executives emerged from the scouting combine thinking the Chicago Bears were open to trading the first pick in the draft. They were right. This year, sentiment from NFL front offices holds that the Bears will use the top pick, acquired from the Carolina Panthers one year ago next week, on USC quarterback Caleb Williams.

Checking in with decision-makers this time of year provides a snapshot of their expectations coming out of the combine. What they think might happen in early March evolves as the draft nears, partly because coaches become more involved in the process. But I find value in taking a snapshot to establish a baseline.

I’ve put together a rough top 10 based on conversations with six executives during and after the combine. Clear themes emerged for quarterbacks, offensive linemen and receivers, with some intrigue surrounding a QB prospect whom teams haven’t assessed as fully.

Last year, execs correctly projected seven of the top 10 players selected. Bijan Robinson, Jalen Carter and Darnell Wright were the three players landing in the actual top 10 without appearing in the March 2023 projection.

Execs narrowly missed on offensive lineman Peter Skoronski (Tennessee picked him 11th). They missed on cornerback Christian Gonzalez, who went 17th to New England. And they whiffed on quarterback Will Levis, who was not selected until the 33rd slot — a reminder that when QBs fall, they can plummet, because only a subset of teams will consider one early in a given year.

This year, the general theme was for quarterbacks to go first, then offensive linemen, then wide receivers, with some overlap between those two final positions. Only a couple of defensive players made the projected top 10.

We are not projecting potential trades below because there are too many possibilities. Finding logical homes for the highest-ranked players based on the order as it stands today captures the general feel at the moment.

Four players appeared in the top 10 on all six ballots: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Joe Alt.

Five players appeared on five of six ballots: Dallas Turner, Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, Olu Fashanu and Malik Nabers.

JC Latham appeared on four ballots. Jared Verse appeared on three. Brock Bowers appeared on two. Chop Robinson and Byron Murphy II each appeared on one.

The top 10 picks below have been formed from a consensus of the six ballots. Nabers and Latham were not selected in the top 10 because there was no consensus on where either would land, but they would be part of any consensus top 10 overall.

Most also thought J.J. McCarthy would be selected among the top 10, probably to a team that traded up, such as the Denver Broncos. But none of the six execs penciled him in for one of the teams already picking in the top 10, at least not yet.

1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB, USC

Vote distribution: Williams 6

All six execs had the Bears selecting Williams and trading incumbent starter Justin Fields. All endorsed Chicago heading down this path.

“I would be evaluating the other quarterbacks like crazy right now and saying, ‘What if I moved down to two or three and got a historic return?’” one of the execs said. “Would I still be getting a franchise quarterback?”

The strongest concern voiced regarding Williams was his tendency to hold onto the ball longer than is ideal for a timing-based offense. In a worst-case scenario, that could lead to more third-and-long situations, robbing an offense of consistency. But the feeling among execs was that Chicago should not hesitate in making Williams the first selection.

2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

Vote distribution: Daniels 5, Maye 1

Five of six execs had Daniels heading to Washington in this slot. One of the five initially had Maye, then changed to Daniels a few days later.

“I think people struggle with Maye’s mechanics,” this exec said.

The one holdout for Maye in this slot said he heard Commanders general manager Adam Peters was “really into” Maye. The fit could be appealing. Maye and incumbent Commanders starter Sam Howell were teammates at North Carolina. Howell could open the 2024 season as the starter if the Commanders wanted to give Maye time to assimilate.

Another exec left open the possibility that Michigan’s McCarthy could compete with Daniels and Maye for this slot.

“If he throws well,” this exec said of McCarthy, “he is competing for the No. 2 spot. I don’t see him overtaking them, though.”

The Athletic’s Randy Mueller predicted months ago that McCarthy could rise into the top five as teams and specifically coaches learned more about him, before it was known whether McCarthy would enter the draft. Mueller, a three-time GM and one-time NFL Executive of the Year, also thinks analysts are overrating Maye based on prototypical size, and that some teams will not have Maye rated as highly.

“I think that whole quarterback thing between McCarthy and Maye is yet to play out,” a former GM said. “The other two I think are more set.”

For now, all six execs projected Maye being selected second or third.

“Could you say McCarthy could go in the top five? Yes,” the former GM said, “because everybody had him on the back burner this fall. And then Michigan was not centered around the quarterback like Oregon or Washington was, so he was not going to put up monster numbers. But then when you start looking at the talent and the makeup, he looks pretty good to people.”

Vote distribution: Maye 5, Daniels 1

Every exec had the Patriots selecting a quarterback in the first round. Maye was the choice more by default than because anyone thought New England was particularly high on him.

“I think they would probably rather have Jayden Daniels, but I’ll put Maye in there,” one exec said.

One GM whose team already has a franchise quarterback thought McCarthy would be “a huge reach” in this spot, but he conceded New England could make a bold selection with Eliot Wolf running the draft room.

“I think they go quarterback,” this GM said. “Do they take a shot at J.J.? Eliot won’t be afraid to if he believes in the player. Just look at what his dad has done.”

Ron Wolf famously acquired Brett Favre from the Atlanta Falcons three decades ago.

“Ron Wolf’s son is going to go for the biggest, fastest, most talented athlete in most cases,” a different exec said.

Vote distribution: Joe Alt 2, Dallas Turner 2, Marvin Harrison Jr. 2

There was zero consensus on Arizona in this slot. I gave Turner to the Cardinals because their defense badly needs reinforcements.

“Turner is squarely in the top 10 now,” one exec said, citing the Alabama product’s 4.46 in the 40-yard dash.

We could have sent Harrison or Alt to the Cardinals just the same.

“I think they have to go pass rush if they stay there,” one of the execs said. “It could be Dallas Turner. Verse might be a safer pick. I would think they will be looking to move down. There is enough rush, even a Chop Robinson, to get him lower. Seven (Titans) and six (Giants) could trade up for a tackle.”

Trading down from this spot makes perfect sense, perhaps regardless of how the top three picks play out.

“I would expect them to trade the pick,” one of the execs said. “Look at how they moved back last year, and then the fact that this is going to be an attractive spot because it allows someone to come up from a distance to get the player they want.”

This exec was picturing one of the quarterback-needy teams vaulting into this spot for McCarthy or Maye. The Cardinals have already committed to Kyler Murray as their quarterback. Moving back to, say, the 12th slot in a trade with Denver could still deliver the eighth-best non-quarterback in the draft for a team already set at the position.

“That is a perfect distance maybe for Arizona to go back, load up on picks, including a first next year, and there are still players there that are going to have equal opportunity to have a significant impact,” the exec said. “They could get the No. 1 corner, the No. 2 edge guy, still a good tackle, still a good receiver.”

Arizona has been a popular destination for Harrison in mock drafts. While four of the six execs projected Harrison to be the first receiver selected, Nabers and Odunze also got votes, and Harrison wasn’t necessarily seen as the best by a wide margin.

“I think they’ll take Marvin Harrison because I think he is the most talented, solid, all-the-way-around guy,” another exec said. “Let me put it to you this way: I see him being the best available player at that time. If you don’t look at him as better than Odunze or Nabers, then yeah, maybe you go with Alt or Dallas Turner. But they gotta keep giving their quarterback some players, too, and I think Marvin Harrison is going to check every box, and is more talented.”

Vote distribution: Alt 2, Fashanu 2, Turner 1, Nabers 1

The first four execs polled sent an offensive lineman to the Chargers, figuring the pick would make sense symbolically for the team’s old-school coach, Jim Harbaugh. But there was some strong pushback against this idea as well, which we’ll get to in a moment.

“Joe Alt might be the safest and most complete of the tackles,” one exec said. “They have a left tackle. They could play him at right tackle. You are going to want to give the quarterback a run game, and then you are going to want to protect him for the first time in his career.”

Solid thinking, but is it solid value?

“That is one thing I just don’t get,” another exec said. “Taking a guy to play right tackle, I just don’t understand that. Alt is clean, and I love Alt, but with pass rushers, there is a big difference in the value of the position to me. We can find a right tackle.”

This exec penciled in Turner for the Chargers. Another leaned toward the offensive line initially but thought Nabers would make the greater impact.

“To get Herbert a guy like Nabers would give them some L.A. fireworks,” he said.

6. New York Giants: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

Vote distribution: Harrison 2, Nabers 1, Odunze 1, Latham 1, Alt 1

Four of the six execs had the Giants selecting a receiver, but there wasn’t strong conviction regarding which receiver would be the choice, partly because the top three wideouts could go in just about any order.

An exec who sent Harrison to the Cardinals at No. 4 settled on Odunze for the Giants.

“Nabers is more speed, while Odunze is more possession, big, strong, physical,” this exec said. “They might go with Odunze just because they took the speed guy out of Tennessee (Jalin Hyatt) last year, and this would be a good complement.”

The Giants need help on their offensive line, but they’ve invested recent high draft choices in the position. The exec sending Latham to the Giants noted that the team seems to like SEC players. What about a quarterback?

“If you are the Giants and J.J. McCarthy is there, I think you have to take him,” one exec said. “That doesn’t mean they will do it. They desperately need offensive line. Let’s just give them Alt. I could see them saying, ‘If Jones doesn’t work this year, we will have another top 10 pick next year and worry about it then.’”

Vote distribution: Fashanu 2, Latham 1, Alt 1, Nabers 1, Verse 1

Four of the six execs sent an offensive lineman to the Titans.

“They have not replaced Taylor Lewan, and they need to do that,” one of the execs said. “The guy they took last year (Skoronski) was really a guard. They need a left tackle.”

The lone exec sending a defensive player to the Titans did so based on what he knows about Tennessee’s GM, Ran Carthon.

“I think they go with the best pass rusher,” this exec said. “Ran would probably rely on his 49er days, probably take Verse. I have not personally studied Verse and Turner enough to have a strong opinion, but that is my gut based on what I have seen.”

8. Atlanta Falcons: Jared Verse, Edge, Florida State

Vote distribution: Verse 2, Turner 2, Robinson 1, Latham 1

The execs generally thought the Falcons would address their quarterback situation in free agency or by trade, although one GM offered up another possibility.

“They are the most likely to trade to 1 and get Caleb Williams, or trade for Fields,” this GM said.

Adding young pass rush help for a veteran defense wouldn’t be as exciting. It could be the best option.

“You can’t take another offensive skill player, can you?” one of the execs said. “I don’t see a quarterback necessarily because I think they are going to sign Russell Wilson. They could go corner, too, but I’ll give them a pass rusher.”

Another exec cautioned against ruling out a receiver, noting that the Falcons could still use help at the position. But he thought defense was more likely.

9. Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

Vote distribution: Odunze 3, Nabers 1, Harrison 1, Byron Murphy II 1

Odunze was the highest-rated receiver available in this scenario and a straightforward pick for a team that targeted its franchise quarterback at the top of the draft. The Bears also could find a defensive player for their defensive-minded coach, Matt Eberflus, under the thinking that Williams would unlock more from their receivers, led by DJ Moore.

“To pair Caleb with a top-tier receiver, both of them young, both with a lot of time, yeah, it would be really hard not to do that,” one exec said.

10. New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

Vote distribution: Bowers 2, Nabers 1, Odunze 1, Fashanu 1, Latham 1

None of the execs thought selecting a tight end in this slot would be a sound move.

“When you are picking in the top 10 and you need offensive line help and you take a tight end, that is malpractice,” the exec sending Fashanu to the Jets said. “You can’t do that. That is just ridiculous.”

Another exec said the Jets needed to select a tackle in this slot, or trade back and select one. But he didn’t necessarily think the Jets would do that.

“It is hard in the top 10 to not take a building-block position, but the Jets are in a unique spot because they have to win this year or they don’t have jobs,” this exec said. “You are getting weapons for Aaron Rodgers and he is going to scheme it for you. They have swung and missed on so many offensive linemen. I would think they go offensive line in free agency.”

(Top photos of, Drake Maye, left, and Jayden Daniels: Grant Halverson, Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images)

Draft season kicks into high gear this week at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis as teams will put prospects under a microscope during private interviews, news conferences and workouts at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Quarterbacks always dominate conversations at the combine, and this year will be no different with USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels expected to be among the first handful of picks come April. But a stellar wide receiver group, headlined by Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU’s Malik Nabers and Washington’s Rome Odunze, will also draw plenty of interest this week.

Beyond the draft prospects, new head coaches, led by the Chargers’ Jim Harbaugh, and GMs, including the Commanders’ Adam Peters, will be in the spotlight. And the futures of quarterbacks Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields will be hot topics.

We asked The Athletic’s team of beat and national writers to fill us in on who or what they’ll be watching or listening for as the NFL world descends upon Indianapolis.

How big of a priority is an upgrade at wide receiver?

The Cardinals need help there. That’s not a question. But they have several needs, and two of the biggest are on the offensive and defensive lines. Like many of his peers, general manager Monti Ossenfort believes the quickest way to build is through the trenches. The popular theory is that if wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is there, you take him. But what if he’s not? Does Arizona select Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze, also considered elite receivers? Or do they go a different route and look to pick up a receiver in later rounds? Ossenfort, who traded back from No. 3 last year, won’t answer these questions, of course, but he might shed light on how he views Arizona’s roster priorities. — Doug Haller

How does Tier 2 of the quarterback class shake out?

The Falcons don’t have a shot at Caleb Williams or Drake Maye picking at No. 8, and trading up to No. 1 or No. 2 in this draft class doesn’t seem realistic for anyone. That means if Atlanta is going to rely on the draft to find its next quarterback, it’s going to have to decide who it likes from a group that includes LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and maybe even Oregon’s Bo Nix. Not only that, the Falcons have to figure out where they’re going to need to pick to get the player they want. McCarthy and Nix almost certainly will be available at eight, but getting Daniels might require a trade up to as high as No. 3. — Josh Kendall

Which agents is general manager Eric DeCosta meeting with?

The Ravens are picking 30th. They have myriad needs, particularly on the offensive line and at running back and edge rusher. However, they’ll stay at 30 and pick the best player available or they’ll trade back to accrue more picks. What they do in the draft is never sexy, but it’s who they are. It’s also why there will be no position focus at the combine. What will be more notable is whether DeCosta can gain any traction in re-signing his own free agents. The Ravens have nearly two dozen, including standouts Justin Madubuike and Patrick Queen. With a tight salary-cap situation, DeCosta will need to get creative to keep the core of a 13-4 team together for another run. — Jeff Zrebiec

How will the Bills navigate their currently nonexistent cap space?

The Bills have their work cut out for them this offseason. The team is in a projected $41 million hole for 2024 cap space, with only 53 players on their roster and a lot of holes to boot. The team will need to make some difficult decisions. Whom might they cut to make room? Which contracts will they restructure? Which players will they extend? How much do they want to negatively influence their 2025 cap sheet with some of their restructurings? General manager Brandon Beane hasn’t had to do anything quite like this since his early years as the team’s GM. — Joe Buscaglia

The team’s new coach and general manager

I’m interested in hearing what Dave Canales and Dan Morgan say at their first combine as the top of the Panthers’ football food chain. The two spoke in mostly general terms at their introductory news conference, where Morgan said the team needs more “dogs.” You might have heard: The Panthers don’t have a first-round pick. But this is an important offseason for a team that needs to get quarterback Bryce Young offensive line help and more weapons while figuring out how to handle a pair of key free agents in edge rusher Brian Burns and linebacker Frankie Luvu. — Joseph Person

How will Caleb Williams handle the limelight?

The most important elements of the combine for the presumptive No. 1 pick will take place behind the scenes during his conversations with teams, starting with the Bears. Most questions about Williams have more to do with what he’s like off the field, and while he’s experienced more fame than most college football players, he hasn’t experienced anything like the media onslaught that will be waiting for him Friday morning in Indianapolis. The Bears, and other teams, will likely take note of how he does in that environment. — Kevin Fishbain

The defensive tackle class

The Bengals need to attack needs at interior defensive line aggressively, so how the measurables (and interviews) shake out will go a long way to deciding if Byron Murphy of Texas and Jer’Zhan Newton of Illinois could connect at No. 18 or if a move up or down the board shakes them out of mid-first range. Will any new candidates enter the equation for Day 2 with a strong combine? The Bengals need to plot the draft path at DT and if they don’t see enough options, they could shift to a free-agent-laden approach. — Paul Dehner Jr.

The wide receivers

The Browns are focused on winning in 2024, so the “good” stuff at the combine will involve Browns GM Andrew Berry talking potential trades with his peers and potentially bumping into agents of upcoming free agents. None of that will be for public consumption. But the Browns need to upgrade their receiving corps — now and into the future — so it’s fair to think they’ll focus on their evaluations of this year’s wide receiver class. The Browns don’t pick until No. 54 of the second round, so they’ll have to determine how many wide receivers will be long gone, which ones they might like in the second or third rounds and how those receivers might fit into their ever-evolving offense. — Zac Jackson

What is the latest with Dak Prescott’s contract?

There are plenty of areas to address in free agency and the draft, from offensive line to linebacker and defensive tackle. But Prescott’s contract is the No. 1 issue because it affects everything else. The Cowboys have given no indication that they are considering an immediate future without Prescott, who is entering the final season of his current deal. The most likely scenario is that he signs a new contract next month. If the Cowboys leave his deal as is, he’d count just under $60 million against their 2024 cap, making it difficult to do anything to improve the roster outside of the draft. If Dallas is truly “all in,” like Jerry Jones said at the Senior Bowl, they need to figure out Prescott’s future so they can begin improving the rest of the roster. — Jon Machota

Russell Wilson watch

Sean Payton said after the season that a decision on the future of the 35-year-old Wilson would not be “a long, drawn-out process.” A few weeks later, at the Super Bowl, Payton said the decision would come “sooner rather than later.” The Broncos appear ready to move on from Wilson, whose $37 million in 2025 salary becomes guaranteed if he’s still on the roster on March 17, but there has been no movement yet publicly. I’m interested to see whether the activities at the combine reveal anything about what the Broncos will do with Wilson after two underwhelming seasons in Denver and what light will be shed on their quarterback plan to follow. — Nick Kosmider

The cornerback class

This is a really intriguing group of corners, with more than a handful of prospects looking like first-rounders. The Lions obviously could use some young talent at the position, whether it’s at No. 29 on the first night or on Day 2 with three picks — Nos. 61, 73 and 92. I’m curious to see which corners separate themselves in Indianapolis. Testing is obviously part of the equation, but defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn believes you have to be wired a certain way to excel at the position. Hearing from corners at the podium could help us get a better understanding of prospects the Lions might like. — Colton Pouncy

Jordan Love extension talks

I’m going to be parked next to the second-floor Starbucks at the JW Marriott for 96 consecutive hours, waiting for a glimpse of Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst and super-agent David Mulugheta talking with each other. I’d even take just a glance in each other’s direction. Then, I’ll know exactly how much the Packers are paying Love. Gutekunst can’t sign his franchise quarterback until May 3 because that’s 12 months after Love’s last extension, but he and Mulugheta will surely meet in Indianapolis to exchange contract numbers. — Matt Schneidman

Nick Caserio’s plan to build on last season

This was supposed to be a gradual and potentially painful build as Caserio and new coach DeMeco Ryans began laying the foundation last season after the GM spent the two previous years dismantling and setting the table for a true rebuild. But Caserio struck gold with his hiring of Ryans and draft selections both in 2022 and 2023 and Houston came out of nowhere to win its first division title in four years. Now Caserio must further fortify the roster, giving C.J. Stroud additional support by way of consistent weapons and more impactful defensive playmakers. With adequate cap space and eight draft picks, the Texans have resources to build with a blend of free-agent talent and young prospects. Caserio and Ryans surely will not give away any state secrets next week, but they should shed light on some of their highest priorities. — Mike Jones

Who will catch the eye of Colts WRs coach Reggie Wayne?

Beyond the first-round prospects Indianapolis will consider with the No. 15 pick, this year’s draft class is supposed to be loaded with wide receiver talent. Last year, Wayne said he was very impressed with Josh Downs’ route running and sure-handedness during the combine, despite Downs being undersized coming out of North Carolina. Wayne relayed that message to GM Chris Ballard, Downs was drafted in the third round and had a standout rookie season. I’ll use my binoculars to keep a close eye on Wayne’s interactions during combine drills, while also asking several receivers if they’ve met with him and heard any feedback. — James Boyd

How they handle the tricky Calvin Ridley situation

By all accounts, the Jaguars want Ridley back after the 29-year-old receiver had 76 catches for 1,016 yards and eight touchdowns in his first season in Jacksonville. However, Ridley’s contract expired and his situation is fascinating to consider. If the Jaguars re-sign Ridley before free agency begins, it qualifies as an extension and they would owe Atlanta a second-round pick in the 2024 draft as per the terms of their trade. However, if Ridley gets to free agency but still returns to the Jaguars, the new deal wouldn’t be considered an extension — rather a free-agent contract — and the Jaguars would only have to send Atlanta their third-round pick. Allowing Ridley to get to the open market is risky, but if the Jaguars play their cards right, they could bring back Trevor Lawrence’s top weapon without losing a top-50 pick. — Jim Ayello

Tier 2 of the receiver and tight end prospects

A major question for next season is whether Chiefs coach Andy Reid and general manager Brett Veach can return the team’s offense to its previous potent form. One of the fastest ways to do that is to select the best pass-catching prospects available late in the first and second rounds. Travis Kelce will be 35 next season, so adding another tight end should be high on the Chiefs’ priority list. As for the receivers, the Chiefs should have plenty of options, considering the depth of this year’s class. Reid and Veach will use the combine to start identifying which receiver could most excel playing alongside Patrick Mahomes. — Nate Taylor

The quarterback prospects

This isn’t a unique answer, but it’s the most significant roster question for the Raiders in their first full season under general manager Tom Telesco and head coach Antonio Pierce. Quarterback Aidan O’Connell was solid in 10 starts as a rookie, but it’s hard to see the Raiders finishing this offseason without adding competition for the starting job either through the addition of a veteran or a rookie quarterback. Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels are widely considered the top three quarterbacks in this class. The Raiders will do plenty of work on them, but it’ll be difficult for them to draft any of them considering they hold pick No. 13 in the first round. With that in mind, they’ll also need to deeply study J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. and the rest of the class. — Tashan Reed

Their salary-cap situation

The Chargers are effectively $31.7 million over the salary cap as they head into the combine, according to Over the Cap. Crucial decisions loom, particularly regarding receiver Mike Williams, receiver Keenan Allen, edge rusher Joey Bosa and edge rusher Khalil Mack. All four veterans have cap hits exceeding $30 million in 2024. How will new head coach Jim Harbaugh and GM Joe Hortiz navigate these veteran contracts — and their cap situation in general? Who stays? Who goes? Do they inquire into the trade market? Do they offer extensions? Will they use void years? I’ll be looking for answers to these questions in Indy. — Daniel Popper

Sniffing around an offseason plan

The Rams don’t generally attend the NFL combine (here is why) other than their medical staff’s on-site collection of the all-important medical information on prospects. But Indianapolis is still a great place to gather data and tidbits from agents and other league sources about what their offseason plan could be and new trends in contract structures and team-building. The Rams will have approximately $40 million in workable cap space and a lot of needs despite a better-than-expected 2023 season. They also have brought in new assistant coaches — and the combine will be the perfect environment to mine for information about those additions. — Jourdan Rodrigue

Tua Tagovailoa extension talks

It certainly seems like a Tagovailoa extension is a foregone conclusion. But what will it look like and when will it happen? The Dolphins QB enters the 2024 season with a $23.1 million cap charge on the fifth-year option. The Dolphins then have the franchise tag at their disposal, so they don’t have to sign him to a long-term deal now or even next offseason. But for a team that could use some cap relief, lowering his cap figure with an extension could be appealing. But how much is it going to take to retain Tagovailoa? Is he the caliber of quarterback who should be paid in the neighborhood of a Joe Burrow ($55 million AAV)? Would he take less? These are the franchise-defining questions to keep in mind at the combine and beyond. — Jim Ayello

Where things stand between the Vikings and Kirk Cousins

This subject will shape the future of the Vikings organization. Keep Cousins, and Minnesota would likely be signaling its belief that it can contend in the short term. Move on from him, and the Vikings would be indicating that they’d be ready to chart a new path. Cousins’ contract is set to void March 12. If that happens, the Vikings will be on the hook for a hefty $28.5 million dead-cap hit. The only way to extend that money into the future is to come to terms on an extension with Cousins. The NFL combine stands as a prime opportunity for in-person discussions on this subject between the team and Cousins’ representatives. — Alec Lewis

Quarterback Jayden Daniels

The easiest way for the Patriots to address their issues at quarterback is to draft a signal caller — either Daniels or Drake Maye depending on who falls to them at No. 3. With Daniels, there are more unknowns. The Pats aren’t concerned about his height (6-foot-4) or hand size (9 5/8 inches), but scouts want to see him at or above 210 pounds at the combine because there are concerns about his slight frame and the big hits he too often takes. The other question for the Patriots is how Daniels will interview and how he’ll test when they run him through plays on the whiteboard. How Daniels (and Maye) do this week will go a long way in determining whether the Patriots draft a quarterback or wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. with the third pick. — Chad Graff

Offensive tackles and pass catchers

We’ll leave the annual “too far over the salary cap” discussion for after the combine because the Saints always find a way. And this year it should come in mass contract restructurings of several veteran players. As noted in our NFL reporters’ mock draft recently, the need for tackle and/or guard should stand high on the priority list. So you’d imagine players like Olu Fashanu (Penn State), JC Latham (Alabama), Taliese Fuaga (Oregon State), Amarius Mims (Georgia) and Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma) are all on the Saints’ radar. The Saints could also use another piece for Derek Carr at wide receiver (LSU’s Brian Thomas, Florida State’s Keon Coleman, Texas’ Adonai Mitchell) to add some more punch with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. — Larry Holder

Saquon Barkley watch

There’s a lot riding on this next period of the Giants offseason after an already noisy start to the business side of things with coaching changes aplenty. But the spotlight will be tuned to Barkley’s future at the combine as the front office and the running back’s representatives are expected to meet again. Will they be able to hammer out a deal? Will he get tagged again for $12.1 million or will he finally test the open market and venture into the interesting running back market? We’ll get a clearer picture by week’s end of where the two sides stand. — Charlotte Carroll

The pass catchers

The Jets have an obvious need at offensive tackle (and/or at guard, too, depending on some offseason decisions), but they also desperately need help at wide receiver for star Garrett Wilson. Allen Lazard won’t cut it as an option in 2024. There are some extremely talented receivers in this class who could be available at No. 10 when the Jets pick — after Marvin Harrison Jr., who will almost certainly be gone — and even if the Jets still need an offensive lineman, they might be tempted by the likes of Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze — or others later in the draft, when teams have found stars in past years while the Jets sat on their hands, like last year. — Zack Rosenblatt

Are they organized?

Fourth-year coach Nick Sirianni overhauled both coordinator positions, and there’s still not much clarity about how involved he will be in working with newly hired offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to build a less predictable offensive system that supplies a deeply talented roster with more answers this offseason. And what kind of offense is that exactly? A Howie Roseman-led personnel department that remains largely intact must also upgrade several defensive positions. How more favorably positioned will defenders be in a revamped “Fangio System” that will this time be coached by … well, Vic Fangio? — Brooks Kubena

If it’s a clean sweep concerning Kenny Pickett

The Steelers interview every single player they can and they pretty much use the combine as an assurance of what they’ve scouted throughout the year. So there’s not much to glean there. Where there could be some clarification, or at least unity, is what general manager Omar Khan says about Pickett compared with what Mike Tomlin said days after the season and what owner Art Rooney II said two weeks later. Both alluded to Pickett being the No. 1 quarterback entering the season despite not regaining his starting position from Mason Rudolph over the final four games of the season. Will the Steelers triple down on that or walk it back and hammer home that Pickett won’t be entering the offseason as the clear-cut QB1 and either a re-signing of Rudolph or an outside free agent — or a potential trade — will provide legitimate competition? — Mark Kaboly

The offensive linemen

Three of the top center prospects — Oregon’s Jackson Powers-Johnson, Duke’s Graham Barton and West Virginia’s Zach Frazier — should all have multi-positional capability in the NFL. That could be tantalizing to the 49ers, whose biggest weakness to fix lies in the offensive line. More than one spot was a problem this past season. Essentially everyone but left tackle Trent Williams endured significant struggles at one point or another. So perhaps the 49ers, who don’t pick until No. 31, will be looking for an adaptable interior lineman who can immediately fortify their especially problematic right guard position before potentially becoming the long-term solution at center. The 49ers simply need more quality options up front. Imagine the boost that could give QB Brock Purdy. — David Lombardi

John Schneider flying solo

This will be Seattle’s first combine with GM Schneider leading football operations, so his messaging from the podium will be interesting to analyze. While Schneider has long figured prominently into key decisions, coach Pete Carroll set the vision for the franchise previously. Schneider is doing more of that now. We won’t hear from new coach Mike Macdonald at all at the combine; he and his staff are expected to remain behind to install their schemes. That will put additional attention on Schneider. — Mike Sando

How they approach the quarterback position

The Bucs want to re-sign Baker Mayfield, whose contract is up. Mayfield has said he wants to remain in Tampa. But he also told ESPN he wants market value. That probably means a deal similar to the one Geno Smith recently signed with Seattle — $75 million over three years. Whether the Bucs want to pay that is the issue. A franchise tag is an option but not ideal with safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and wide receiver Mike Evans also on expiring contracts. It will be interesting to hear what GM Jason Licht says about the quarterback position, including the prospects in the draft. — Dan Pompei

Three tackles and two receivers

The free-agency picture suggests the Titans can get help at cornerback and interior offensive line before the draft but will likely have to focus their first two picks on their two biggest needs. The absence of a third-round pick increases the urgency. Second-year quarterback Will Levis needs a long-term receiver to grow with and a left tackle to protect him. The board may work out for the Titans to choose between Joe Alt and Olu Fashanu as a foundational tackle — but what about Taliese Fuaga? Does he continue his momentum in Indy? Could the Titans move down, get him and be happy with it? The board may also let Malik Nabers or Rome Odunze slide to No. 7. Would Brian Callahan prefer a playmaker over a blocker as the Bengals did when he was there and they took Ja’Marr Chase over Penei Sewell in 2021? — Joe Rexrode

The quarterbacks

It’s no secret that the holders of the No. 2 pick are expected to select a quarterback from the top group. The trick here is the new braintrust of GM Adam Peters, head coach Dan Quinn, offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and the scouting department holdovers are mostly new to each other. Do they have Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels graded in the same range? If Williams is a cut above, is the gap considered enough to offer the Bears a Godfather trade for the first pick? Has Daniels’ dual-threat shine caught up to Maye or do they prefer the UNC quarterback’s prototypical size? We won’t find out the staff’s hopes and dreams, but this is where the detective work begins by examining the trio on our own. — Ben Standig

(Top photos of J.J. McCarthy, Saquon Barkley and Malik Nabers: Gregory Shamus, Getty Images; Jim McIsaac, Getty Images; Matthew Hinton / USA Today)

NFL free agency is fast approaching, offering the first window for teams to improve this offseason, provided they sign the right players.

These are my rankings and scouting reports of the top 150 free agents available, shaped by a ton of film work and perspective from many years leading NFL personnel departments. This might not be exactly how you see it, but that’s why Baskin-Robbins has 31 flavors.

A few notes:

• While these rankings factor in age (as of Sept. 5, the scheduled date of the 2024 season opener) and known injury history, they do not consider medical or character information, as teams know much more about those subjects behind closed doors.

• At each position, I’ve included some stats I find valuable. At some positions, I’ve estimated play speed from what I can see on tape (not timed 40-yard-dash speed — there is a difference). At times, I’ve used play speed as a differentiator.

• If I were with an NFL team, this would be only one part of a multilevel process to establish consensus within the building. That consensus is missing from any rankings you’ll see, here or elsewhere. You can read more about my criteria and how an NFL GM approaches free agency here.

With that, let’s dive in.

— The Athletic’s James Boyd, Joe Buscaglia, Paul Dehner Jr., Michael-Shawn Dugar, Dan Duggan, Chad Graff, Zac Jackson, Mark Kaboly, Josh Kendall, Brooks Kubena, David Lombardi, Jon Machota, Daniel Popper, Tashan Reed, Matt Schneidman, Ben Standig and Jeff Zrebiec contributed to this story.

(Top illustration: Daniel Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos of, from left, Kirk Cousins, Brian Burns and Saquon Barkley: Stephen Maturen, David Jensen / Getty Images, Michael Owens / Associated Press)

The NFL offseason began Sunday night after the Kansas City Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 to claim the Super Bowl LVIII title and (only slightly less importantly) the top spot in our postseason power rankings.

That means that all the fan bases that have been tuning out as their teams were eliminated from playoff contention or the playoffs are now back in the game. Hope is alive again for everyone with free agency and the draft coming into view.

With that in mind, we’re resetting our power rankings by combining some of the old (last season’s results) and some of the new (who’s getting a stud quarterback back, who might get a new coach lift, who has salary-cap space, etc.) to set the field going forward.

1. Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes, who was 8-for-8 passing on the drive that just won the Super Bowl, won his third Super Bowl MVP trophy and is one of five quarterbacks in NFL history to win at least three Super Bowl titles (and he was behind by double digits in all three of those games). He is 15-3 in the playoffs in his six-year career and has advanced at least to the AFC Championship Game in all six of those seasons. Kansas City has $24 million in salary-cap space but might as well use it all to make sure the defense stays stocked because Mahomes will make it work on offense.

2. San Francisco 49ers

This will be a tough week, but the future will be fine. The 49ers are over the salary cap (by just $3.7 million) but have all of their significant offensive weapons under contract. They also still have Kyle Shanahan, which despite what everyone is saying today, is a good thing. Shanahan is 72-54 as a head coach. San Francisco is second in the league in yards per play (5.9) and seventh in scoring (25.04) since Shanahan became the head coach in 2017, according to TruMedia.

Everyone’s favorite underdog had the 49ers on the ropes in the NFC Championship Game, has money to spend ($47 million in cap space) and, shockingly, still has offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who rebuffed the Washington Commanders to stay in Detroit. Every significant offensive contributor remains under contract on a team that finished fifth in the league in scoring (27.35 ppg). When coach Dan Campbell said after the loss to the Niners that it would be “twice as hard” to get back to that point next season, it wasn’t poor-mouthing, it was just his first motivational speech of the 2024 season.

A disappointing ending (scoring 10 points in the AFC Championship Game against the underdog Chiefs) shouldn’t overshadow the fact the Ravens, who have $7.3 million cap space, remain the class of the AFC’s B flight (which includes any team that doesn’t employ Patrick Mahomes). There won’t be any Lamar Jackson contract drama this offseason, which will allow Jackson and offensive coordinator Todd Monken to strengthen their connection. That’s good news for the Ravens considering Jackson is coming off the second-best season of his career and second NFL MVP award. The quarterback’s yards per attempt (7.9) this year were a career-high and his passer rating (101.6) and touchdown passes (27) were the second best of his career.

The Texans are one of the big movers since the last publication of these rankings. Rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud put 45 points on one of the league’s most aggressive defenses in the playoffs, beating the Browns 45-14 in the wild-card round, and was named offensive rookie of the year. His offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik, is back after taking head coaching interviews, and Houston has $57.4 million in cap space.

A Matt LaFleur Appreciation Post: The Packers head coach somehow is the forgotten man in the Kyle Shanahan-Sean McVay conversation. LaFleur is 56-27 in five seasons in Green Bay. That .675 winning percentage is better than Shanahan or McVay, not to mention every other active coach in the league other than Jim Harbaugh (.695). Until last season, Aaron Rodgers got the credit for LaFleur’s accomplishments, but the Packers (who are $2.9 million above the salary cap) are doing it now with 25-year-old Jordan Love.

Things get a lot harder for Buffalo starting this offseason because Josh Allen’s cap hit just went from $18.6 million to $47 million, and it will be north of $40 million for the next five seasons. It’s why the Bills already are $51.3 million over the 2024 cap. The good news is they still have Allen, and he’s the reason Buffalo sits with Baltimore on the AFC’s second shelf. Remember, the Bills finished the season fourth in point margin (plus-140) despite six regular-season losses.

8. Cleveland Browns

Deshaun Watson is back, but we’re all still trying to figure out if that’s a good thing. Kevin Stefanski earned NFL coach of the year honors by getting the Browns to the playoffs with no Nick Chubb and with Joe Flacco at quarterback after Watson’s season-ending injury. Watson has started only 12 games since joining the Browns two years ago (8-4 record), and he’s 57th in the league in EPA per attempt (minus-.07) in that time, according to TruMedia. Still, the Browns, who are $19.6 million over the cap, have a great defense and Chubb returning from a devastating knee injury.

Are you ready for a lot of Tua Tagovailoa talk? Well, you better be. The Dolphins quarterback is under contract for 2024 at a $23.2 million cap hit, but that’s the last year of his deal and “Should Miami give Tua a market-setting deal?” is going to be one of the questions of the offseason. The Dolphins aren’t exactly rolling in spending money. They are $51.9 million over the salary cap at the moment and should pay defensive tackle Christian Wilkins this offseason.

Tua Tagovailoa got on stage with Darius Rucker to play the guitar & sing Wagon Wheel in Vegas

Daniel Jones was in the crowd cheering him on

(via @kasideekarsten) pic.twitter.com/LKizs1IVWs

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) February 10, 2024

No team has moved up this list more than the Bengals, who not only have $59.4 million cap space but are getting Joe Burrow back from a season-ending wrist injury. Offensive coordinator Brian Callahan is gone, but Burrow’s return more than makes up for it. Burrow is 27-15 as a starter in the last three seasons and cheap(-ish) for one more year. Burrow’s cap hit for 2024 is $29.7 million. After that, it goes over $46 million for each of the next five seasons.

The Cowboys are allowed to be in the top half of these rankings only because the playoffs are over. Dallas, which is $19.7 million over the salary cap, has won 12 regular-season games in each of the last three years but only one playoff game in that span. Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy are back, looking to move past last month’s embarrassing 48-32 loss to the Packers, but running back Tony Pollard is an unrestricted free agent.

Everyone of note is under contract, and the Rams have $27.7 million in salary-cap space. They won seven of their last nine regular-season games and came within a point of upsetting the Lions in the playoffs. Barring an unexpected (but you could see it at his age) retirement by Matthew Stafford, the Rams will enter 2024 as a dark-horse conference championship contender.

Did we underestimate the Bucs all season long? Did the Eagles just quit? Tampa Bay’s 32-9 win over Philadelphia in the wild-card round raised questions about both teams. Questions that probably won’t be answered until next season starts, but the Buccaneers do at least deserve some recognition here. Tampa Bay — which has $36.9 million in salary-cap space, some of which certainly will go to re-signing Baker Mayfield — has gone to the playoffs each of the last four seasons, winning the division title three times and a Super Bowl once in that span.

In a world where Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud didn’t exist, Indianapolis would be feeling very good about itself right now. The Colts are getting quarterback Anthony Richardson back from his season-ending shoulder surgery and are believers in Shane Steichen after his first year as head coach. Throw in $58.9 million of salary-cap space to plug holes, and Colts fans can talk themselves into a brewing rivalry with Stroud and the Texans.

15. Philadelphia Eagles

A case could be made to put the Eagles just about anywhere on this list. Many of the reasons they went to the Super Bowl a season ago (Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith) are still around, but questions abound. They have $20.2 million in salary-cap space but may lose Jason Kelce, Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham to retirement and/or free agency. Then there’s the coaching staff overhaul that ended with Kellen Moore in charge of the offense and Vic Fangio in charge of the defense. How good are the Eagles? Who knows?

This position is Kirk Cousins dependent. The 35-year-old free agent is coming off a torn Achilles tendon, but he’s still going to be the hottest quarterback commodity on the market. The Vikings have $24.7 million in cap space and will create as much more as they need to to get Cousins back. He’s expressed his contentment with Minnesota, and why not? In his two seasons playing for Kevin O’Connell, Cousins is third in the league in passing yards (275.12) and passing touchdowns (1.88) per game, according to TruMedia.

Robert Saleh should just pretend last year never happened. Seriously. Make it a bit starting now. Pretend this is Aaron Rodgers’ first season with the team. Claim he’s never heard the names Pat McAfee or Zach Wilson. Lean into it. The Jets have $5 million in salary-cap space, the No. 10 pick in the draft and a healthy Rodgers. New York still has Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator, but maybe Saleh can pretend that’s not real either.

Seattle gets a new head coach bump thanks to Mike Macdonald’s hiring, but it’s still in one of the league’s toughest divisions with the 49ers, Rams and perhaps ascendant Cardinals. The Seahawks need to create some salary-cap room (they’re minus-$5.2 million at the moment) and hope Geno Smith has a bounce-back season. The quarterback’s passer rating (100.8 to 92.1), touchdowns (32 to 20) and yards per attempt (7.5 to 7.3) all went down after a surprising 2022, according to TruMedia.

Mike Tomlin checked the “winning season” box again, but that’s about all the Steelers got out of the season. They weren’t competitive against Buffalo in the first round of the playoffs, and they don’t seem to know if Kenny Pickett or Mason Rudolph is the quarterback. Something everyone in Pittsburgh can look forward to, though, are some great sideline shots of new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and mercurial wide receiver George Pickens throughout the season. Pittsburgh is $16 million over the cap.

Yes, Jim Harbaugh is quirky, but only Guy Chamberlin (who coached the Canton Bulldogs among others in the 1920s; I had to look it up), John Madden, Vince Lombardi and George Allen have a better career winning percentage in the NFL than Harbaugh’s .695. He also has Justin Herbert. There are issues, though, including an aging roster and the fact the Chargers are $45.8 million over the cap.

No team will have a longer offseason than the Jaguars, who lost five of their last six games to fall out of playoff contention. Jacksonville, which has $11.3 million in cap space, has only two more cheap years of Trevor Lawrence. The quarterback will be an $11 million cap hit this year and then either play on his fifth-year option or a new deal, either of which will be a bigger number. The Jags pick 17th in the first round.

The Raiders were 5-4 under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, which was good enough to make him full-time head coach Antonio Pierce. Now, he has his work cut out for him. The Raiders have some money to spend ($36 million in cap space) and the No. 13 pick in the upcoming draft, but they probably need a quarterback and are a long way from being able to compete with the division-dominating Chiefs.

It’s hard to see where this team will find a solution at quarterback. Sean Payton still won’t say if Russell Wilson will be back, but things aren’t trending in that direction. The Broncos are set to pick 12th so they’ll either have to trade up or decide they can live with one of the second-tier quarterback prospects if they want a rookie quarterback. They are $23.9 million over the salary cap and will take another big cap hit if they cut Wilson ($85 million in dead money if he’s released before June 1), so attracting a name in free agency seems unlikely.

Matt Eberflus is coming back. Now, what about Justin Fields? Thanks to last year’s trade with the Carolina Panthers, the Bears have the No. 1 pick, which means they can take Caleb Williams (or Drake Maye or even Jayden Daniels, but probably Williams) or bank on more development by Fields. Either way, this is going to be an offseason of additions. The Bears have the Nos. 1 and 9 picks in the first round and $46.9 million of cap space.

Mike Vrabel is out, and Brian Callahan and a more “collaborative” mindset are in. Will that and $68.1 million in salary-cap space be enough to get Tennessee back into the playoff hunt after two years out of the mix? That depends mostly on quarterback Will Levis, who started nine games last year and whom Callahan, the former Bengals offensive coordinator, was hired to elevate. The Titans were 3-6 in Levis’ starts.

26. Washington Commanders

The Commanders’ offseason of optimism — new owner, No. 2 pick, $73.6 million in cap space — lost some momentum when Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson seemed to leave them at the head coaching altar late in the process. It may turn out that Washington stumbled into a great hire with Dan Quinn, whose positive attitude should help a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff game since 2005, or it may be a bust. A lot could depend on whether Quinn’s offensive coordinator hire, Kliff Kingsbury, works out.

Jerod Mayo is on the clock, and it seems as if he’s suddenly in charge of the first round of the NFL Draft. The Patriots pick No. 3. Quarterbacks are considered locks to be taken in the first two picks, but things get interesting at No. 3. Will Mayo decide it’s time to move on from Mac Jones and draft a quarterback or will he take Marvin Harrison Jr. to help Jones’ development? What New England does with its $66 million in cap space in March may give us some clue about that.

Let’s all take a moment to appreciate the Saints for always playing their role. General manager Mickey Loomis scoffs at the salary cap, and thus New Orleans is in the worst cap shape in the league heading into the offseason ($83.9 million over the cap). The other thing Loomis always does is figure it out by the time the fall arrives, although Saints fans might be starting to wonder about the long-term strategy. New Orleans hasn’t made the playoffs or won double-digit games in the last three seasons.

The Falcons have a new head coach, with Raheem Morris taking over for the fired Arthur Smith, and $25.8 million in salary-cap space. What they don’t have is a quarterback. That’s why they will be attached to every available one until the question is settled. Justin Fields? Sure, he could be an option. Kirk Cousins? He’s familiar with the new offensive system. Trading up from No. 8 in the draft to get Jayden Daniels? Might be an option. That’s a preview of the next two months for the Falcons.

Daniel Jones will count at least $41.6 million toward the salary cap each of the next three seasons. The Giants have the No. 6 pick in the first round. They have to at least consider making a change at quarterback. They also have to figure out what to do about Saquon Barkley. They couldn’t get a long-term deal done with their star running back last offseason but have $21.8 million in cap space available they want to try harder this offseason.

31. Arizona Cardinals

This is the offseason the Cardinals have been waiting for since last offseason. Arizona has $41.9 million in cap space and has three picks in the top 35 selections and seven of the top 104. No team will get a bigger facelift before the start of next season. One place where there won’t be a change is quarterback as the Cardinals have committed to keeping Kyler Murray.

32. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers hired a new head coach, Dave Canales, to fix their still-kind-of-new quarterback, Bryce Young. Canales was the surprise hire of the offseason, coming to Carolina after only one year of calling plays at division-rival Tampa Bay. Either he blew the Panthers away in the interview process or mercurial owner David Tepper was worried he wasn’t going to be able to attract a bigger-name hire. Carolina has $28.6 million in cap space heading into the offseason.

(Top photo: Michael Owens / Getty Images)

Like the rest of you, the Power Rankings are trying to make some sense of this NFL year as we head into the final week of the regular season. Nine playoff spots are spoken for — by the Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs and Browns in the AFC and 49ers, Cowboys, Lions, Eagles and Rams in the NFC. That leaves five more to be decided by the results of Week 18.

Before all that, though, we’re going to try to take a lesson from each team’s season, even those seasons that are basically over.

1. Baltimore Ravens (13-3)

(Last week: 1)

Sunday: Beat Miami Dolphins 56-19

The lesson: Hire great assistants

John Harbaugh hit back-to-back home runs by hiring defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald in 2022 and offensive coordinator Todd Monken in 2023. As a result, his Ravens clinched the AFC’s top seed by thumping the Dolphins on Sunday. Well, that, and having Lamar Jackson, who was 18-for-21 for 321 yards and five touchdowns against Miami. Jackson’s plus-28.2 passing EPA was the best single-game performance since Joe Burrow against the Ravens in 2021 (plus-34.1), according to NextGenStats, and probably clinched the MVP award.

Up next: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

2. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)

(Last week: 2)

Sunday: Beat Washington Commanders 27-10

The lesson: Star power matters

The 49ers have made a quarterback nobody else in the league wanted look like a superstar by surrounding him with stars. On Sunday, San Francisco became the first team in league history to have a running back (Christian McCaffrey), two wide receivers (Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk) and a tight end (George Kittle) all surpass 1,000 yards in a single season. The 49ers also clinched the top seed in the NFC, meaning teams that love playing at home on turf (looking at you Dallas and Detroit) probably will have to win in the elements to get to the Super Bowl.

Up next: vs. Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

3. Cleveland Browns (11-5)

(Last week: 8)

Thursday: Beat New York Jets 37-20

The lesson: They didn’t even need Deshaun Watson

The Browns would be one of the feel-good stories in the league this year if not for the fact that they still have a scar from their pursuit of Watson, and it looks like it was a misguided self-inflicted wound. Cleveland has won seven of its last nine games, the last five of which have come with 38-year-old Joe Flacco at quarterback. Flacco has topped 300 yards passing in each of the last four games. He had 309 and three touchdowns against the Jets on Thursday. Why did they do all they did to get Watson again?

Up next: at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

4. Detroit Lions (11-5)

(Last week: 5)

Saturday: Lost to Dallas Cowboys 20-19

The lesson: NFL Draft maxims are flawed

Remember all the grief Detroit got for taking running back Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12 and inside linebacker Jack Campbell at No. 18? Since Week 14, Gibbs is ninth in the league in rushing (72.25 yards per game). Campbell is second on the team in tackles for the season (77). Tight end Sam LaPorta, the No. 34 pick, hasn’t been bad either, catching 81 passes for 860 yards and nine touchdowns. (Sorry about the ref thing guys. We hope leaving you ahead of the Cowboys in these rankings makes it all better.)

Up next: vs. Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

5. Dallas Cowboys (11-5)

(Last week: 6)

Saturday: Beat Detroit Lions 20-19

The lesson: Throw the ball to your best players

Dallas has lost only once this season when CeeDee Lamb gets more than 10 targets in a game. Lamb averaged seven targets and 5.7 catches per game through Week 6, and the Cowboys were 4-2. Since then, he has averaged 12.6 targets and 8.8 catches per game, and Dallas is 7-3 in that span. Saturday night, he had a career-high 227 yards on 13 catches against the Lions.

Up next: at Washington Commanders, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

.@dak said GO LONG @_CeeDeeThree pic.twitter.com/xuP9pBgndi

— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) December 31, 2023

6. Miami Dolphins (11-5)

(Last week: 3)

Sunday: Lost to Baltimore Ravens 56-19

The lesson: Speed kills

Six of the top 10 speeds achieved by ball carriers in the NFL this year have been by Dolphins — Tyreek Hill three times, Devone Achane twice and Raheem Mostert once. They have enough speed that they’ve been able to survive injuries to all three of those players at some point this season and still get to 11 wins. It didn’t help much Sunday, but Achane did have 107 yards on just 14 carries against one of the NFL’s best defenses.

Up next: vs. Buffalo Bills, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

(Last week: 4)

Sunday: Beat New England Patriots 27-21

The lesson: Josh Allen is the MVP runner-up

All the hand-wringing after Allen’s four-turnover start to the season is long gone as the second-most unique player in the league behind Lamar Jackson has the Bills sitting at No. 6 in the AFC playoff race after their fourth straight win Sunday, and Buffalo can win the AFC East by beating Miami on Sunday. Despite a pedestrian statistical performance against the Patriots, Allen is seventh in the NFL in passing yards (3,947) and second in scramble EPA per game (3.47), according to TruMedia.

Up next: at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Only Josh Allen could come up with this

@NFLpic.twitter.com/s60r1P9lUV

— The Athletic NFL (@TheAthleticNFL) December 31, 2023

8. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)

(Last week: 9)

Sunday: Beat Cincinnati Bengals 25-17

The lesson: There are no sure things

The Chiefs may win another Super Bowl, but it’s going to be an uphill climb. All of Patrick Mahomes’ magic could only generate one touchdown against the Bengals on Sunday. Kansas City got the win thanks to six Harrison Butker field goals, and Rashee Rice, who had five catches for 127 yards, remains the only reliable wide receiver. That’s a problem that is made worse by the fact that Travis Kelce had only three catches for 16 yards against the Bengals and hasn’t topped 45 yards in any of the last three games.

Up next: at Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

9. Los Angeles Rams (9-7)

(Last week: 10)

Sunday: Beat New York Giants 26-25

The lesson: Sean McVay shouldn’t do TV

After flirting with retirement and a high-paying television job, McVay has proved he’s still really good at his current high-paying job. Los Angeles has won six of its last seven after holding off the Giants on Sunday, and the Rams will be a tough out in the playoffs as long as Matthew Stafford is playing like this. Stafford had another 317 yards Sunday and is eighth in the league in passing yards per game (264.3).

Up next: at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

(Last week: 13)

Sunday: Beat Tennessee Titans 26-3

The lesson: The right quarterback fixes everything

This was supposed to be a throwaway year in Houston. Instead, rookie C.J. Stroud, the No. 2 pick, is fourth in the NFL with 274.57 passing yards per game, and Houston is in the eighth spot in the AFC, still very much alive in the playoff race. After missing two games because of a concussion, Stroud returned Sunday to complete 24 of 32 passes for 213 yards and a touchdown against the Titans. Defensive end Will Anderson set the Texans’ rookie sack record with his seventh.

Up next: at Indianapolis Colts, Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET

11. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)

(Last week: 7)

Sunday: Lost to Arizona Cardinals 35-31

The lesson: Matt Patricia is never the answer

The Eagles have won 11 games this season and still can’t seem to help but panic. Their most recent abrupt move was to elevate Patricia to defensive play caller. On Sunday, the Eagles’ defensive success rate (40.8 percent) was their worst in a game since 2006, according to TruMedia. The Cardinals finished with 449 yards and marched 70 yards on their fourth-quarter, game-winning drive. The Eagles have lost four of their last five. (More lessons learned about former Patriots assistants below.)

Up next: at New York Giants, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

(Last week: 14)

Sunday: Beat Las Vegas Raiders 23-20

The lesson: Shane Steichen has been as good as any new hire

Steichen didn’t get the headlines among this offseason’s hires, but he’s playing Sunday for a spot in the playoffs despite losing starting quarterback Anthony Richardson for the season and not having Jonathan Taylor for seven games. Indianapolis is 10th in the league in scoring (23.56) with the former Eagles offensive coordinator in charge.

Up next: vs. Houston Texans, Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET

(Last week: 20)

Sunday: Beat Minnesota Vikings 33-10

The lesson: Draft quarterbacks early

Jordan Love is third in the NFL in touchdown passes (30) and ninth in EPA per attempt (.19) in his first season as the full-time starter. That’s after spending two seasons on the bench before replacing Aaron Rodgers, who spent three seasons on the bench before replacing Brett Favre. The Packers look like they’re going to end up having three good to very good, long-term quarterbacks, and there’s no secret to why. They draft the quarterbacks they like when that player is available and are patient enough to let him sit until the right time.

Up next: vs. Chicago Bears, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

(Last week: 15)

Sunday: Beat Seattle Seahawks 30-23

The lesson: Mike Tomlin is historically steady

After Sunday’s win, Tomlin is guaranteed his 17th straight season with a .500 or better record. Only Tom Landry (21) and Bill Belichick (19) have more. Steelers fans will point out that Tomlin has missed the playoffs in the last two seasons and in four of the last six. Even after Sunday’s win, in which George Pickens had 131 yards, Pittsburgh is only ninth in the AFC.

Up next: at Baltimore Ravens, Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

(Last week: 11)

Sunday: Lost to New Orleans Saints 23-13

The lesson: The right timing and situation matter

Baker Mayfield didn’t play his best game Sunday, finishing 22-for-33 for 309 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, but he’s been a season-saver for Tampa Bay. Playing on a one-year, $4 million contract, Mayfield is tied for fourth in the NFL in touchdown passes (28) and eighth in EPA per attempt (.19). If he can lead the Buccaneers past Bryce Young and the Panthers, he will take Tampa Bay to the playoffs.

Up next: at Carolina Panthers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 12)

Sunday: Lost to Pittsburgh Steelers 30-23

The lesson: Pete Carroll can really coach

Seattle still has a 23.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s projections, despite Sunday’s loss. If the Seahawks can get there, it will be Carroll’s 10th trip in his last 13 seasons as head coach. There’s a lot of angst in Seattle right now because the Seahawks gave up 468 yards to Mason Rudolph and the Steelers on Sunday, but Seattle could do a lot worse than being in the mix every year under Carroll.

Up next: at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

(Last week: 16)

Sunday: Beat Carolina Panthers 26-0

The lesson: There are two star Josh Allens

The Jaguars linebacker sacked Bryce Young three times on Sunday and now has the team’s single-season record with 16 1/2, which ranks third in the NFL. Allen is second in the league in quarterback hits (33) and eighth in hurries (53), according to TruMedia. He led a defensive effort Sunday that held the Panthers to 124 yards and also had six tackles, and probably should be getting more attention in the defensive player of the year conversation.

Up next: at Tennessee Titans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 19)

Sunday: Beat Los Angeles Chargers 16-9

The lesson: Sean Payton is the dictator

This was mostly known when Payton took the job in the offseason, but the head coach made it official this week when he benched Russell Wilson in favor of Jarrett Stidham. Payton insisted it was a move made for football reasons only, and the Broncos did snap a two-game losing streak Sunday, but the move really was Payton officially winning the power play. Denver general manager George Paton, who gave Wilson his huge contract extension last year, may be next.

Up next: at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

(Last week: 24)

Sunday: Beat Atlanta Falcons 37-17

The lesson: Justin Fields isn’t a quitter

The Bears might still fire Fields, but he’s going to make it as difficult a decision as he can. On Sunday, he made plays with his arms and legs and led Chicago to its fourth win in five games. Falcons defensive end Calais Campbell, a 16-year NFL veteran, said “give him his respect. I think he flashed a lot today. Obviously, it’s a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately business, so he could have a bad game next week and nobody cares, but today he was a premier NFL quarterback.”

Up next: at Green Bay Packers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

“I’m gonna remember this for the rest of my life.”

– Justin Fields talking to @Amanda_Balionis about hearing WE WANT FIELDS chants raining down from @ChicagoBears fans pic.twitter.com/OOXgKEIfBQ

— NFL on CBS (@NFLonCBS) December 31, 2023

20. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)

(Last week: 17)

Sunday: Lost to Kansas City Chiefs 25-17

The lesson: Magical runs eventually end

It took a lot longer than we all thought, but Cincinnati was eliminated from the playoff race Sunday. Everyone assumed that had happened in Week 11 when Joe Burrow was lost for the season with a wrist injury. Instead, backup Jake Browning went on a tear. On Sunday, though, Browning had his lowest-output game since replacing Burrow, completing 57.6 percent of his passes for 197 yards. That came on the heels of a three-interception game. Burrow will be back next season and so will the Bengals.

Up next: vs. Cleveland Browns, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 21)

Sunday: Beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-13

The lesson: The NFC South is a wreck

There’s just nothing else to be taken from this Saints’ season. They have gotten up-and-(mostly)-down play from free-agent quarterback Derek Carr. Alvin Kamara is averaging 3.7 yards per carry and still is New Orleans’ leading rusher. And yet, New Orleans will head to the playoffs if it beats Atlanta and Carolina beats Tampa Bay on Sunday.

Up next: vs. Atlanta Falcons, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 18)

Sunday: Lost to Green Bay Packers 33-10

The lesson: Kirk Cousins is going to get paid

Viking coach Kevin O’Connell is 17-9 with Cousins as his starting quarterback. He is 3-5 without Cousins and is now very aware of what life is like in the NFL when you’re in quarterback limbo. Minnesota has cycled through Jaren Hall, Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens since Cousins tore his Achilles. That memory is going to loom large when Cousins, who will be a free agent, asks for his next deal.

Up next: at Detroit Lions, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 22)

Sunday: Lost to Indianapolis Colts 23-20

The lesson: Hiring Josh McDaniels is a bad idea

The Raiders hired McDaniels after his 11-17 run in Denver, and he went 9-16 in Las Vegas before being fired. The Raiders fell to 4-4 under interim coach Antonio Pierce with Sunday’s loss, but that’s still a better career winning percentage than McDaniels has. Davante Adams was targeted 21 times Sunday against the Colts, catching 13 passes for 126 yards. His 21 targets are the most by any player this season. Second most were Adams’ 20 targets in Week 3.

Up next: vs. Denver Broncos, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

24. Atlanta Falcons (7-9)

(Last week: 23)

Sunday: Lost to Chicago Bears 37-17

The lesson: Quarterback still counts the most

The Falcons paid their offensive line, improved their defense and spent three straight top-10 picks on offensive skill players and still are 26th in the league in scoring (19 points per game). The reason is their quarterbacks — Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke — have turned the ball over 21 times. Coach Arthur Smith, hired for his offensive acumen, is on the hot seat after Sunday’s stinker.

Up next: at New Orleans Saints, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

25. New York Jets (6-10)

(Last week: 25)

Thursday: Lost to Cleveland Browns 37-20

The lesson: Don’t be stubborn

The Jets tried so hard to prove they could make Zach Wilson work that they ruined their season. Aaron Rodgers’ injury was bad luck. Keeping Wilson as the backstop for a Rodgers injury was just hard-headed. Wilson was 34th in the league in EPA per attempt (.04) and 37th in passer rating (77.2) in 12 games before finally being benched. Remember, Joe Flacco was on the Jets’ roster last year and was available with just a phone call until six weeks ago.

Up next: at New England Patriots, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

26. New York Giants (5-11)

(Last week: 26)

Sunday: Lost to Los Angeles Rams 26-25

The lesson: Don’t pay big money for average QB play

Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito both have a better EPA per attempt than Daniel Jones’ minus-.12 this season, according to TruMedia. Jones’ number ranks 44th among quarterbacks who had more than 100 pass attempts this season. Not many people thought it was a good idea for the Giants to give Jones a four-year, $160 million contract in the offseason. New York proved all those people right by playing just as well using players it picked up for next to nothing.

Up next: vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

27. Arizona Cardinals (4-12)

(Last week: 31)

Sunday: Beat Philadelphia Eagles 35-31

The lesson: We’ll see

The Cardinals are getting a pat on the back for beating a playoff team, but they also moved themselves from the No. 2 pick in the draft to the No. 4 pick for now. If that holds, it could be a costly turn of events even if the Cardinals want to hold on to Kyler Murray. A top-two pick in this draft means being able to take Caleb Williams or Drake Maye or shop the pick to someone who wants to do that. That might be worth more in the long run than feeling good on the last Monday of the regular season.

Up next: vs. Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

28. Tennessee Titans (5-11)

(Last week: 27)

Sunday: Lost to Houston Texans 26-3

The lesson: Competitive rebuilds are hard

After three straight trips to the playoffs, Tennessee is 12-21 in the last two seasons. The Titans went back to Ryan Tannehill on Sunday, but it didn’t bring back the good ol’ days. Tennessee had 187 yards of offense, was 1-for-12 on third down and didn’t manage a touchdown against the division-rival Texans, who swept Tennessee this season.

Up next: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

29. Los Angeles Chargers (5-11)

(Last week: 28)

Sunday: Lost to Denver Broncos 16-9

The lesson: Coaching hires are a crap shoot

This is not a new lesson. The Chargers are just the most recent team to highlight it. They hired Brandon Staley in 2021 because he was the hot defensive name. They fired him after 14 games this year because he was 5-9 and his defense stunk. The coaching change hasn’t changed the team’s luck. The Chargers have lost four straight and seven of their last eight heading into the season finale against the Chiefs.

Up next: vs. Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

30. New England Patriots (4-12)

(Last week: 29)

Sunday: Lost to Buffalo Bills 27-21

The lesson: Bill Belichick shouldn’t get another GM job

Taking Mac Jones with the No. 15 pick of the 2021 draft is what got the Patriots into this mess, but Belichick’s drafting miscues don’t stop there. New England used a fourth-round pick on kicker Chad Ryland and he’s 15-for-24 after missing again Sunday. Belichick’s future hasn’t been discussed much of late. Is it possible he stays as head coach in New England but gives up personnel responsibilities?

Up next: vs. New York Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 30)

Sunday: Lost to San Francisco 49ers 27-10

The lesson: The Sam Howell talk was a smokescreen

It seems pretty clear that Ron Rivera was hoping that convincing everyone Howell was the long-term answer at quarterback would buy him some more time in Washington. Howell isn’t and it won’t. After Jacoby Brissett played well in Weeks 15 and 16, Howell was forced back into the lineup Sunday because of Brissett’s hamstring injury. The result was a 17-for-28 day with 169 yards, two interceptions and a touchdown. The Commanders will have a new coach and a new quarterback next season.

Up next: vs. Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

32. Carolina Panthers (2-14)

(Last week: 32)

Sunday: Lost to Jacksonville Jaguars 26-0

The lesson: The coach and QB are not the problem

Owner David Tepper appears to have been busted tossing a drink on a fan late in Sunday’s loss. The NFL is expected to respond with some sort of rebuke for the owner, but the biggest penalty for Tepper is that the incident confirms what everyone had expected — he’s the problem in Carolina. Hiring a coach just got harder and more expensive for the NFL’s heir apparent to Daniel Snyder.

Up next: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Top photo of Joe Flacco: Cooper Neill / Getty Images)

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“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, is on sale now. Order it here.

Scoring touchdowns during each offensive possession is the unspoken goal for every NFL team. For decades, celebrations have been the norm in accompanying touchdowns. It goes back all the way to the 1960s with Homer Jones and his touchdown spike.

Touchdown celebrations have become a choreographed production for some teams. Think back to the 1980s when Washington’s “Fun Bunch” made enemies after its group of players participated in a jumping high-five after a score. And think recently when the Seattle Seahawks did their best New Edition and *NSYNC impersonations, or when the Minnesota Vikings decided to play a game of Duck, Duck, Goose in the end zone.

The 2023 NFL season has had its share of memorable touchdown celebrations. Each team has had its moment. Some moments, however, have been bigger than others. The Athletic’s team of Jason Jones, Matt Barrows and Vic Tafur got together to reminisce over the season and discuss the best touchdown celebration for each team.

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AFC East

Buffalo Bills

“Stone Cold” Steve Austin would be proud of Stefon Diggs’ beer celebration during Week 4 as the Bills faced Miami.

After scoring against the Dolphins, Diggs ran to the fans, grabbed a couple of beers and smashed them together. It was an act similar to what the legendary pro wrestler did in the WWE.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins could be the subject of a celebration piece by themselves. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and the crew have provided several memorable celebrations.

During a Week 6 game against Carolina, Hill’s 41-yard touchdown reception, coupled with the use of a photographer’s phone, resulted in a backflip, as well as a unique selfie. It also ended up with the photographer being disciplined.

New England Patriots

The Patriots haven’t had a lot of opportunities to celebrate on offense this season. After one of their biggest touchdowns of 2023 — Mike Gesicki’s game-winning touchdown catch late to beat Buffalo in Week 7 — multiple players did the Griddy.

While some executed the dance, others still are unsure exactly what Mac Jones was doing. On top of that, former Patriot Rob Gronkowski, a fun-loving player in his day, criticized the team for being so happy about a regular-season win.

New York Jets

The end zone and the Jets haven’t been acquainted most of the season, but their most dramatic touchdown celebration might have come Week 1 against Buffalo.

Xavier Gipson used a 65-yard punt return to beat the Bills in overtime. He was mobbed by teammates and overcome with emotion for the win on the same night Aaron Rodgers left the game with an Achilles injury.

AFC West

Denver Broncos

This team does a lot of ball spinning and chest bumping. Two years ago, Jerry Jeudy was even fined for his bow-and-arrow celebration against Washington and thought about doing it again but had second thoughts in a game against Dallas.

Now, he just rides his horse around every time he scores.

Kansas City Chiefs

There hasn’t been a potato sack race like the one in 2017 or anything that cool this season. And no, we aren’t picking Taylor Swift’s touchdown dance with Patrick Mahomes’ wife, Brittany, from the Week 7 win over the Chargers.

Jerick McKinnon got a lift in after a touchdown during Week 14 against Buffalo. The bench-press celebration capped what was McKinnon’s first rushing touchdown of the season.

Las Vegas Raiders

It took the Christmas spirit — or, maybe, the Grinch spirit — to overtake the Raiders after a season of boring touchdown celebrations. Jack Jones picked off Patrick Mahomes on Christmas morning, and after staring down the Kansas City quarterback while running in for a touchdown, he offered the ball to a young Chiefs fan in the front row of the stands. When the excited fan reached for the ball, Jones pulled it back and merrily scampered off.

Los Angeles Chargers

There haven’t been a lot of reasons to choreograph for a Chargers team sitting at the bottom of the AFC West. Gerald Everett, however, did find a time to do his best Ray Lewis impersonation during Week 12 — against Baltimore, of all teams.

Austin Ekeler actually celebrated a first down with his team trailing Las Vegas by 42 points. But that doesn’t count.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens do a lot because they’re actually throwing talented receivers the ball this season.

There was Odell Beckham Jr.’s Michael Jackson tribute, but top honors should go to Zay Flowers — who did two in one game. We didn’t hate the bouquet throw, but we definitely liked the penalty kick more.

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon proved that there are some Dillon Brooks fans out there.

Against Jacksonville in Week 13, Mixon scored on a 6-yard run to tie the game 7-7. That score — and Mixon’s dance, made popular by Brooks, the Houston Rockets small forward brought with him from his time with the Memphis Grizzlies — was important, as the Bengals needed overtime to beat the Jaguars 34-31.

Cleveland Browns

It’s always fun when the big fellas up front get to celebrate. It’s even better when a player comes home to celebrate.

Browns offensive tackle Dawand Jones sustained a season-ending knee injury early in December, but during an October road matchup against the Indianapolis Colts, Jones had the chance to deliver his own celebration after a Kareem Hunt touchdown run. Jones, who attended Ben Davis High School in Indianapolis, was handed the ball, and the 6-foot-8, 374-pound lineman gave the Lucas Oil Stadium crowd a show with a spike and a dance.

Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s been a tough year for the Steelers wide receivers. And yet, they’re the ones on the team going out of their way to celebrate touchdowns.

We have to give George Pickens some love for his Week 2 performance against the Browns. Pickens took a pass from Kenny Pickett and raced 71 yards for a touchdown. He then celebrated with the Acrisure Stadium crowd by taking a victory lap.

AFC South

Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud was more than three months from being born when the film “Baby Boy” was released. Clearly someone had him watch the movie as he acted out one of the best scenes when Jody (played by Tyrese Gibson) and his friend Sweet Pea (Omar Gooding) tried to find out who stole Jody’s bicycle.

Stroud lined up his teammates and pretended to punch George Fant, who fell out as part of the revenge scene reenactment.

Indianapolis Colts

Fans were denied seeing what Colts tight end Kylen Granson would have done to celebrate his first career touchdown during Week 2, as his 4-yard, second-quarter catch needed an official review before being ruled a score.

But because Gardner Minshew dancing or Zack Moss dunking aren’t exactly unique reactions, Granson gets the nod for thinking outside of the box. He took to Instagram to celebrate his first score, treating the football like a newborn child for a photo shoot.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Christian Kirk gets props for pretending to be an Amazon delivery man in Week 7. But during Week 4, the defense got to have fun with the celebration.

After cornerback Darious Williams’ pick six against Atlanta, the defense reenacted the movie “Toy Story.” The defenders were the toys who were active but fell to the ground once Andy (Williams) walked into the room. Wide receiver Zay Jones said the celebration was his idea.

Tennessee Titans

With all respect to the Titans’ touchdowns this year, the team’s best celebration of the season wasn’t even after a score.

It happened in a Week 4 game after the Titans defense forced a turnover against Cincinnati. The defense had a sack fumble and a recovery, then lined up for its version of a drumline — similar to a scene from the film “Drumline,” starring Nick Cannon.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

Let’s be clear: Salvation Army kettles are for coins and bills, not food items. But we’re fans of the Cowboys’ move to stash a few turkey legs in one of the oversized end zone kettles late in a Thanksgiving romp over the Washington Commanders.

After Dak Prescott hooked up with KaVontae Turpin on a 34-yard touchdown, Turpin hopped into one of the kettles to retrieve the prizes. Then he, Prescott and Jake Ferguson got a head start on their Thanksgiving meals.

New York Giants

No one is quite sure what you call it — maybe not even Tommy DeVito — but the Giants quarterback has MetLife Stadium, Northern New Jersey and the entire tri-state area doing his touchdown celebration.

DeVito started his old-school hand gesture — pinching his fingers together and shaking the wrist — in Week 11, and it’s caught fire since. “I kind of thought it was just the old Italians,” DeVito said. “When they talk, they start doing (the hand gesture). It’s just a little credit to them.” Could there be a more perfect gesture for the DeVito-led G-men?

Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are taking their talents to South Philly. That was the message after Brown scored a 4-yard touchdown against the Cowboys in Week 9. The two receivers took on the roles of former Miami Heat teammates Dwyane Wade and LeBron James with Smith tossing the ball in the air for the bigger Brown to slam.

Note: No crossbars were harmed in the making of this celebration. Brown stopped short of doing a LeBron-like dunk over the bar, an act that was banned in 2014.

Washington Commanders

After running back Brian Robinson scored a 15-yard touchdown in Week 4 against Philadelphia, he hopped to his feet and flapped his arms in wobbly fashion, a dig at Philly’s “Fly Eagles Fly” chant.

Or maybe it was a comment on the Eagles’ rickety defense, which had eight missed tackles that day — including one on Robinson’s touchdown run.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

You’d expect a guy nicknamed “Hollywood” to be a bit of a showman. Marquise Brown didn’t disappoint after catching a 25-yard touchdown pass from Josh Dobbs against the Bengals in Week 5.

After the score, he leaped into the first row of seats and celebrated with fans.

Los Angeles Rams

It might not win an Oscar for Most Original Score, but there seemed to be something behind Puka Nacua’s and Cooper Kupp’s leaping chest bump following Nacua’s 70-yard touchdown against the Browns in Week 13.

It was very similar to the celebrations Kupp used to have with a former teammate — current Houston Texan receiver Robert Woods. Nacua happens to wear the same No. 17 Woods once had in L.A., and the celebration was tantamount to a proclamation that there’s a new receiver duo in town.

San Francisco 49ers

Christian McCaffrey was in the midst of what would become a 17-game scoring streak when he took a shovel pass into the end zone from 13 yards out in Week 6 against Cleveland, then spun the ball in the corner of the end zone. The 49ers tailback was on such a hot streak that George Kittle bent over at the waist and pretended to warm his hands over the spinning football.

Kittle also retrieved the ball, something he usually does after anyone scores, though he said at some point he stopped doing it for McCaffrey. “He scores way too much,” Kittle said.

Seattle Seahawks

Maybe there are better trash talkers in the NFL, but no one is a better trash signer than DK Metcalf.

The Seahawks wideout, who is learning American Sign Language, dissed longtime rival Ahkello Witherspoon by signing “44 is my son” following a Week 11 touchdown against the Rams. After a 31-yard score against the 49ers, he signed, “I’m a dog: w-o-o-f,” which are lyrics from a 2016 Migos song.

NFC North

Chicago Bears

The Bears have had their share of fun this season. Jaylon Johnson brought back Randy Moss’ controversial fake mooning against Moss’ old team, Minnesota, in Week 12. D’Onta Foreman and Khari Blasingame re-enacted a viral video from a slapboxing match during a win over the Raiders.

But their best celebration came from tight end Cole Kmet during Week 4 against Denver. He scored a touchdown, and then had a fan in the end zone pretend to throw him a pitch, which Kmet hit for a home run that another fan tried to catch at the wall behind the end zone.

Detroit Lions

Amon-Ra St. Brown nearly brought a “Key & Peele” skit to life Week 1 with his hip thrust celebration. Detroit’s safe-for-work celebration of the season, however, came against the Raiders during Week 8 on Monday night.

Running back Jahmyr Gibbs scored and took his leap into the stands to a new level. He actually got all the way into the stands and celebrated. He also had to be very careful climbing out the stands, as the wall was not a short climb like Green Bay’s Lambeau Field.

Green Bay Packers

The celebration that followed Malik Heath’s first-ever touchdown stands out because it was so spontaneous, so pure.

After Heath made a late-game catch at the pylon against the Giants in Week 14, he crashed into down judge Tom Stephan, taking him to the ground. That led to a couple of uncertain seconds while Stephan got to his feet. The Packers trailed 21-16 at the time, and everyone was waiting on whether it was ruled a touchdown — including Heath, an undrafted rookie whose helmet was knocked off after crashing into the official.

When Stephan finally signaled touchdown, Heath and the Packers went bonkers, and Heath ran the length of the end zone toward the Green Bay sideline.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings might take first prize for their keg stand celebration that followed Mekhi Blackmon’s fumble recovery late in a Week 14 game against the Raiders. His teammates hoisted Blackmon upside down into the air, and defensive lineman Harrison Phillips even pantomimed pumping the keg.

No, it technically wasn’t a touchdown celebration, but there were no touchdowns in that game. The score was 0-0 at the time, and Minnesota ultimately won 3-0, the lowest-scoring game since 2007.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

Jonnu Smith ran a long way, 60 yards, for a touchdown in Week 9 against Minnesota. When the tight end finally got to the end zone and tried to stop, he slipped on his back.

No worries, Smith played it off with his first-ever snow angel in Atlanta.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers don’t score much, but when their No. 1 draft pick got his first touchdown, they … threw the ball in the stands?

In Carolina’s season opener against Atlanta, quarterback Bryce Young threw a 4-yard touchdown pass to tight end Hayden Hurst, who hurled the ball toward the Mercedes-Benz Stadium crowd after scoring. Important note: The Panthers later got the ball back for Young.

New Orleans Saints

Is the best Saints celebration of the year a Jimmy Graham pump fake?

We mentioned earlier the banning of the crossbar dunking celebration in 2014. Graham was the first person to get penalized for that back in August 2014, as the league fined him $30,000 for dunking twice in a preseason game against the Titans.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers don’t get points for originality, but if it’s not broke, don’t fix it.

The Buccaneers broke out their annual row-the-boat celebration last month against the Titans. Ironically, the first time they did it was in 2018 — against their current quarterback, Baker Mayfield, when they stopped him at the 1-yard line to beat the Browns.

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This series is part of a partnership with Las Vegas.

The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.

(Top photos of DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill: Michael Owens, Peter Nicholls and Megan Briggs / Getty Images)

The NFL’s MVP award is going to dominate much of the conversation in the final two weeks of the regular season, but the Power Rankings think we should be celebrating more than just one player. In that holiday spirit, this week we’re awarding an MVP for each team.

Some of the names are well-known — Lamar Jackson, both Josh Allens, Dak Prescott, etc. — but some might not be. So here they are along with our weekly rankings, and, hey, let’s keep that holiday spirit going in the comments section, what do you say?

(Last week: 2)

Monday: Beat San Francisco 49ers 33-19

MVP: Lamar Jackson

The Ravens’ sixth-year quarterback is playing the way he did when he won the 2019 MVP award. That season, Jackson passed for 3,127 yards, rushed for 1,206 yards and totaled 43 touchdowns. This year, he has 3,357 passing yards, 787 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns. On Monday night, he led Baltimore to points on seven straight drives while leading the team in passing and rushing. He’s not only the MVP of the top team in these power rankings, but he may have captured the league award Monday night.

Up next: vs. Miami Dolphins, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 1)

Monday: Lost to Baltimore Ravens 33-19

MVP: Christian McCaffrey

Even with Monday night’s four-interception game, Brock Purdy’s numbers are absurd (league-leading .37 EPA per attempt), but so were Jimmy Garoppolo’s in this offense. Garoppolo led the league in EPA per attempt (.27) from 2019 to 2022, according to TruMedia. McCaffrey, meanwhile, is the most irreplaceable part of the NFL’s most potent offense. He had 14 carries for 103 yards Monday against the Ravens. For the season, he leads the NFL in rushing (1,395 yards), yards from scrimmage (1,932) and touchdowns (21).

Up next: at Washington Commanders, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 4)

Sunday: Beat Dallas Cowboys 22-20

MVP: Tyreek Hill

Yes, the Dolphins scored 30 points against the Jets without Hill in Week 15, and we know quarterback Tua Tagovailoa says he’s keeping receipts on everyone who says he’s a product of Hill’s addition to the team. Still, it’s impossible to ignore the way that Hill affects the geometry of the field and how much confidence he has given this offense even when he’s not on the field. His numbers aren’t bad either: an NFL-leading 1,641 yards plus 12 touchdowns, which ranks second in the league.

Up next: at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 3)

Saturday: Beat Los Angeles Chargers 24-22

MVP: Josh Allen

Sure, he leads the NFL in turnovers (18), but with plus-1,000 odds at BetMGM, Allen might be the most sensible bet in the field for league MVP. On Saturday, Allen became the first player in NFL history to post four straight seasons of 40-plus touchdowns. He had two rushing scores and one passing touchdown. If he leads Buffalo to the playoffs, no one wants to play this team.

Up next: vs. New England Patriots, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 7)

Sunday: Beat Minnesota Vikings 30-24

MVP: Penei Sewell

This is probably blatant disrespect for Jared Goff, but the Lions have been built around a certain attitude, and nobody represents that attitude more than Sewell, the offensive tackle who came into the weekend as Pro Football Focus’ top-rated pass blocker and run blocker. Goff is having a great year, but we don’t think Detroit is third in the league in yards per game (394.1) without Sewell, who will have his fifth-year option picked up this offseason and then get paid after that.

Up next: at Dallas Cowboys, Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET

(Last week: 5)

Sunday: Lost to Miami Dolphins 22-20

MVP: Dak Prescott

The Cowboys go as Prescott goes. In Dallas’ wins, he is averaging 272.9 passing yards with an EPA per dropback of .26. In Dallas’ losses, he is averaging 232.6 passing yards with an EPA per dropback of minus-.01. On Sunday, he was good (253 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions) but not good enough to get the Cowboys a signature win.

Up next: vs. Detroit Lions, Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET

(Last week: 6)

Monday: Beat New York Giants 33-25

MVP: A.J. Brown

The Eagles haven’t been what they wanted to be on offense this season, but throwing the ball to Brown when all else fails has worked pretty well. Brown is fifth in the league in receiving yards per game (92.9). He’s been targeted at least nine times in Philadelphia’s last five games. On Monday, he got 11 targets and caught six passes for 80 yards against the Giants, and he’s under contract for three more years.

Up next: vs. Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 9)

Sunday: Beat Houston Texans 36-22

MVP: Myles Garrett

Garrett is only 25th in the league in defensive splash plays (38), according to TruMedia, but only because he’s getting more attention than any defender in the league. The Browns have the best defensive success rate (66.8 percent) of any team since at least 2000, according to TruMedia, and Garrett is the No. 1 reason. This team is not in the playoff hunt without him. It’s a threat against anybody with him.

Up next: vs. New York Jets, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

(Last week 8)

Monday: Lost to Las Vegas Raiders 20-14

MVP: Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes won’t win the league award this year for the same reason Michael Jordan didn’t win NBA MVP every year — it just gets too boring. It’s not because he doesn’t deserve it. Mahomes is dragging an offense with an aging (but still great, everybody stay out of the comments) Travis Kelce and only one reliable wide receiver into the playoffs, and no one wants to face him there. After Monday, he is fourth in the league with 3,938 yards.

Up next: vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

(Last week: 10)

Thursday: Beat New Orleans Saints 30-22

MVP: Matthew Stafford

Los Angeles has won five of six games, and in that span, the 35-year-old Stafford has thrown 15 touchdown passes and two interceptions. In each of the last 10 years in which Stafford has played a full season, he has thrown for at least 3,700 yards. He is 11th all time in passing yards with 56,058 in 15 seasons after throwing for 328 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints on Thursday.

Up next: at New York Giants, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Can’t teach this.#NOvsLAR on Prime Video
Also available on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/89phDrOTLt

— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2023

(Last week: 17)

Sunday: Beat Jacksonville Jaguars 30-12

MVP: Baker Mayfield

The six-year veteran is in the running for comeback player of the year. After throwing for 283 yards and two touchdowns Sunday, he is 12th in the league in passing yards (3,598) and seventh in EPA per attempt (.19). All this is after being let go by the Browns after the 2021 season and then being used only for fill-in work by the Panthers and the Rams last season. Tampa Bay got him this year for $4 million. The price next year is going to be a lot higher.

Up next: vs. New Orleans Saints, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 12)

Sunday: Beat Tennessee Titans 20-17

MVP: Jarran Reed

A defensive tackle’s stats usually aren’t that impressive, but Reed’s team-leading seven sacks, 12 quarterback hurries and 49 tackles are. It’s even more impressive considering almost nobody in the league has taken on more than Reed this season. And he’s doing it all on a two-year, $9 million free-agency deal. Geno Smith had a case here but missed two weeks with a groin injury. He did look good in his return Sunday though, posting a 104.7 passer rating.

Up next: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

(Last week: 13)

Sunday: Lost to Cleveland Browns 36-22

MVP: C.J. Stroud

He’s missed the last two weeks because of a concussion, but he sewed up this award long ago. The No. 2 pick in last year’s draft has averaged 279.3 yards per game. He has 20 touchdowns against just five interceptions, and he’s fifth in the league in passer rating (98.7) and fourth in EPA per attempt (.23). Stroud already has six games of 300-plus yards.

Up next: vs. Tennessee Titans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 14)

Sunday: Lost to Atlanta Falcons 29-10

MVP: DeForest Buckner

In his fourth year with the Colts, Buckner is playing as well as ever. Which is saying something considering he’s a two-time Pro Bowler. He already has 17 quarterback hurries, a huge number for a defensive tackle, along with being fifth on the team in tackles (71) and third in sacks (six). Next season, his ninth in the league, will be his last on his current contract.

Up next: vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 20)

Saturday: Beat Cincinnati Bengals 34-11

MVP: T.J. Watt

Death, taxes and a Watt brother terrorizing NFL quarterbacks. Watt leads the league in sacks this season (17). If he finishes the season in first place, it will be the fifth time in the last 12 seasons that T.J. or his brother J.J. has led the league, and T.J. will become the first player in NFL history to lead the league three straight seasons.

Up next: at Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

(Last week: 16)

Sunday: Lost to Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30-12

MVP: Josh Allen

Fellow linebacker Foye Okluokun hasn’t been bad (46 defensive splash plays), but Allen gets the nod because of his ability to get the quarterback to the ground. He is fifth in the league with 13 1/2 sacks. It’s his first double-digit sack season since his rookie year in 2019. He also has 55 tackles, 27 pressures, two forced fumbles and an interception this season.

Up next: vs. Carolina Panthers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 11)

Saturday: Lost to Pittsburgh Steelers 34-11

MVP: Ja’Marr Chase

Yes, Jake Browning was making a push for this spot, and if he gets Cincinnati to the playoffs in Joe Burrow’s absence, he might deserve it, but that looks unlikely after Saturday’s loss, which dropped the Bengals’ postseason chances below 15 percent. So we’re going with the guy who made both quarterbacks look good. Chase, who is in the third year of his rookie deal, didn’t play this week and still is top 10 in the league in receiving yards (1,156).

Up next: at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

(Last week: 19)

Sunday: Lost to Detroit Lions 30-24

MVP: T.J. Hockenson

It’s not Justin Jefferson because Minnesota has a losing record when he plays and a winning one when he doesn’t. Instead, it’s another pass catcher, Hockenson, who was acquired last season via trade with the Lions. Hockenson has been targeted more than any tight end in the NFL (127) and has more receiving yards (960) than all of them except Travis Kelce.

Up next: vs. Green Bay Packers, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

(Last week: 15)

Sunday: Lost to New England Patriots 26-23

MVP: Courtland Sutton

Sutton’s 770 receiving yards don’t rank in the top 30 in the league, but how many times this season has he saved the Broncos with a highlight-reel catch? He’s tied for the NFL lead with four fourth-quarter receiving touchdowns and entered the week as the league’s highest-graded receiver on contested targets by Pro Football Focus.

Up next: vs. Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

(Last week: 18)

Sunday: Beat Carolina Panthers 33-30

MVP: Jordan Love

The Packers may not make the playoffs, but the season has to be counted as a success considering Love’s progress. In his first season since taking over for Aaron Rodgers, Love posted more passing touchdowns in his first 15 starts (26) than either Rodgers or Brett Favre. He is ninth in the league in EPA per attempt (.18) after throwing for 219 yards and two touchdowns Sunday.

Up next: at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Jordan Love gets his second TD of the day

: #GBvsCAR on FOX
: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/ORpITZLD5x

— NFL (@NFL) December 24, 2023

(Last week: 21)

Thursday: Lost to Los Angeles Rams 30-22

MVP: Chris Olave

The second-year wide receiver was targeted 13 times and ended up with nine catches for 123 yards Sunday against the Rams. He is 14th in the league in receiving yards this season (1,041 yards on 91 catches), and he’s carrying a lot of the load for a Saints team that still is sniffing around the playoff race. He gets 24.8 percent of New Orleans’ targets.

Up next: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 22)

Monday: Beat Kansas City Chiefs 20-14

MVP: Maxx Crosby

Crosby is tied for first in the league in defensive splash plays with Khalil Mack (51). He’s been the only consistent bright spot in an all-over-the-place Raiders season, and consistency is maybe his best trait. Crosby has played 95 percent of the defensive snaps for the Raiders this season, a staggering number for a defensive lineman, and the Raiders are suddenly on a two-game winning streak after beating Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on Monday.

Up next: at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 23)

Sunday: Beat Indianapolis Colts 29-10

MVP: Jessie Bates

Not much has gone right in Atlanta this season, but signing Bates in the offseason has proved to be a good choice. The sixth-year safety has a career-high six interceptions and leads the Falcons with 117 tackles. He has also forced three fumbles, all of which explains why he’s first in Pro Bowl fan voting at safety this year. He sealed Sunday’s win over Indianapolis with a fourth-quarter interception.

Up next: at Chicago Bears, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 24)

Sunday: Beat Arizona Cardinals 27-16

MVP: DJ Moore

Acquired in the trade that got Carolina the Bryce Young pick, Moore is having the best season of his career. Despite being held to just three catches for 18 yards because he suffered an ankle injury Sunday, he is 10th in the league in receiving yards (1,141) and just 52 yards short of his single-season high. Whoever plays quarterback for the Bears in 2024 is going to be happy to have Moore on the team.

Up next: vs. Atlanta Falcons, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

25. New York Jets (6-9)

(Last week: 25)

Sunday: Beat Washington Commanders 30-28

MVP: C.J. Mosley

There are a lot of defensive candidates on the Jets (Quincy Williams has 124 tackles and Quinnen Williams has 18 quarterback hurries), but the nod here goes to Mosley, who ties everything together for New York. The ninth-year pro leads the Jets with 137 tackles and has seven deflected passes and a half-sack to go along with it. He’s also one of eight finalists for this season’s Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award.

Up next: at Cleveland Browns, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

C.J. Mosley bringing that Christmas spirit.

: #WASvsNYJ — 1pm ET on CBS
: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/29Y8P1eI5X

— NFL (@NFL) December 24, 2023

26. New York Giants (5-10)

(Last week: 26)

Monday: Lost to Philadelphia Eagles 33-25

MVP: Bobby Okereke

It’s been a really good year for inside linebackers, and Okereke is a prime example. In his first season after signing a four-year, $40 million free-agency deal with the Giants, the fifth-year pro is filling up the stat sheet. Okereke is 10th in the league in defensive splash plays (44) and has nine tackles for loss, nine passes defensed and four forced fumbles.

Up next: vs. Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 27)

Sunday: Lost to Seattle Seahawks 20-17

MVP: DeAndre Hopkins

Nobody was banging down Hopkins’ door during free agency this offseason, but the 11th-year pro has paid off the faith the Titans showed by giving him a two-year, $26 million deal. In a year with uneven quarterback play, Hopkins is 26th in the league with 939 receiving yards. It’s the most receiving yards he’s had since 2020 with the Texans when he had 1,407.

Up next: at Houston Texans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

28. Los Angeles Chargers (5-10)

(Last week: 28)

Saturday: Lost to Buffalo Bills 24-22

MVP: Justin Herbert

There’s one reason the Chargers’ job opening will be the most coveted in the league this offseason, and it’s not the Spanos family’s history of throwing money around. It’s Herbert, who was 11th in the league in passing yards (3,134), 13th in EPA per attempt (.14) and 14th in passer rating (93.2) before a finger injury ended his season after Week 14. The numbers don’t tell Herbert’s story, though. The tape does, and if the right coach lands in Los Angeles, look out.

Up next: at Denver Broncos, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

(Last week: 30)

Sunday: Beat Denver Broncos 26-23

MVP: Jabrill Peppers

The seventh-year safety, who didn’t play Sunday because of a hamstring injury, is one of the few bright spots in New England. After starting just five games for the Patriots last season, Peppers has started all 14 this year and has 76 tackles and seven passes deflected. In a season in which the Patriots lost Christian Gonzalez and Matthew Judon to injury, they have needed everything they’ve gotten from Peppers.

Up next: at Buffalo Bills, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 31)

Sunday: Lost to New York Jets 30-28

MVP: Curtis Samuel

An argument could be made for Montez Sweat, who still leads the Commanders in sacks (six) despite playing there for only eight weeks before being traded to the Bears, but that feels mean. Samuel hasn’t had a stellar season — 565 yards — but he has provided some stability.

Up next: vs. San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 29)

Sunday: Lost to Chicago Bears 27-16

MVP: Trey McBride

It hasn’t been an easy season in Arizona, but McBride has managed to play well enough often enough that the Cardinals felt comfortable letting Zach Ertz leave town. He’s had at least five targets every week since Week 6, and among tight ends in the NFL, he’s seventh in receiving yards (743) and third in yards per route run (2.15). It’s been quite a breakout season for a 2022 second-round pick who had 265 receiving yards last season.

Up next: at Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

32. Carolina Panthers (2-13)

(Last week: 32)

Sunday: Lost to Green Bay Packers 33-30

MVP: Derrick Brown

He has only one sack this season, but Brown has been the most dominant force on a defensive line that also includes Brian Burns. Brown is second on the team in both tackles (88) and quarterback hurries (13). His tackles total, already a career high, is going to get him a big payday as soon as he finishes his fifth-year option season in 2024.

Up next: at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Top photo of Lamar Jackson: Loren Elliott/  Getty Images)

---

“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, is on sale now. Order it here.

The private plane was mostly quiet. There was a nervous energy for the three Oklahoma football coaches onboard. They’d never done what they were about to do.

It was Sunday, Dec. 1, 2002, the first day coaches were allowed to visit high school juniors for recruitment. A day earlier, these coaches had been on the sideline as Oklahoma lost to in-state rival Oklahoma State, effectively dashing their hopes of appearing in the BCS national title game. But on this one-hour flight, they had other concerns.

As the plane neared Texarkana, an appropriately named border town sandwiched between Texas and Arkansas, they talked about the fact that none had never been to a prison before for a recruiting visit. “All I could relate it to was what I saw on TV and in the movies,” said Cale Gundy, Oklahoma’s running backs coach at the time. “We just didn’t know what it would be like.”

They also talked about the player who had them flying to visit a federal prison. He was good enough, they thought, to change an already successful program. But he would require a recruitment unlike any they’d ever experienced. Still, Adrian Peterson was worth it. Thus, the coaches headed to the federal prison where Adrian’s dad, Nelson, was incarcerated.

That flight marked the start of one of the wildest recruitments ever, a whirlwind two years where the top college programs battled for Peterson’s commitment and included a brief period when it was thought Peterson might skip college altogether and go straight to the NFL.

Peterson would eventually make it there and play 15 seasons. He was named NFL MVP in 2012 after an incredible comeback from an ACL tear. In 2014, he pleaded no contest to a misdemeanor charge of recklessly assaulting his son; he had used a “switch” to discipline the 4-year-old. He was put on probation, fined $4,000 and required to do 80 hours of community service. The NFL suspended him, but he returned in 2015 and won his third rushing title.

But before that, he was a coveted high school standout who arrived just as recruiting rankings were rising in popularity. Now, those rankings are obsessed over, followed and debated for years before players even commit to a school, evidenced by the hype around Wednesday’s opening of the early signing period. But Peterson was arguably the first true can’t-miss No. 1 prospect in the modern recruiting era, drawing coaches to the small town of Palestine in East Texas and one federal prison.

Said Gundy: “We knew it was going to be a battle all the way for him.”

---

Jeff Harrell came to Palestine High as the defensive coordinator and head track coach when Peterson was a sophomore. Peterson wasn’t on the varsity football team that year because he was academically ineligible. So Harrell didn’t work with Peterson until the track season that spring. Peterson’s mom, Bonita, was a former track star; his dad was a former college basketball player.

After the school’s first track workout, Harrell decided to have Peterson run on the team’s 4×100-meter relay team in addition to the 100- and 200-meter individual events. But Harrell encountered a problem. Harrell taught relay runners to stand 15 steps behind their starting mark to allow time to gather the baton from the previous runner while getting up to top speed. But when Peterson started running, the sprinters behind him with the baton couldn’t catch him. So Harrell had Peterson move up to 10 steps behind the starting mark. Then five.

“That didn’t work,” Harrell said.

So Peterson was told to stand at the starting mark until he received the baton. Harrell feared a collision. But each time, Peterson grabbed the baton and sprinted away so fast that, somehow, it worked.

“I remember going home every day and telling my wife, ‘I’ve got this kid and I’ve never seen anything like him in my life,’” Harrell said.

Peterson ran a 10.6-second 100-meter dash that year. He set a personal best of 10.26 seconds two years later, a time so fast that if it weren’t for football, Harrell believes Peterson could’ve become an Olympic sprinter.

Peterson played on both sides of the ball as a sophomore on the JV team, playing running back and outside linebacker, but as a junior on the varsity team, Harrell, by then the head coach, put an end to that. Harrell didn’t want to be the coach who got the country’s best football recruit hurt while playing out of position as a linebacker.

Peterson ran for 5,011 yards in his two varsity seasons. He averaged 11.7 yards per carry as a senior. He had 32 touchdowns. And he rarely played after halftime because his team was so dominant.

“I didn’t let him play any more than we needed and didn’t let him return any kicks or play defense,” Harrell said.

When Peterson’s high school career finally came to an end during a playoff loss his senior year, Harrell was filled with relief more than disappointment. “I just thought: Thank God I got through this and he didn’t get hurt,” Harrell said.

In East Texas, Petersons’ exploits were well known. Some members of opposing teams hung around the field after games in full uniform, sharpies in hand, waiting for Peterson to emerge from the locker room so they could get an autograph. But Harrell didn’t get a full grasp of Peterson’s celebrity until a trip together to Ohio after the season, where Peterson was going to be named the national offensive player of the year. As they waited together in the security line at the Dallas-Fort Worth airport, a TSA agent called them over.

“Before he shows an ID or anything, the man says, ‘Oh, you’re Adrian Peterson,’” Harrell said. “That was one of the first times it hit me that, ‘Oh man, everybody knows this kid.’”

---

At the Federal Correctional Institution Texarkana, guards asked the visiting Oklahoma coaches for their IDs and had them walk through a metal detector. They then guided the coaches to a picnic table in a vast courtyard. A water tower in the distance was the only obstruction against the vast East Texas sky.

Nelson came out and was joined by Bonita, Adrian and one of Adrian’s younger brothers. They talked about academics at Oklahoma (Nelson at one point had been committed to play basketball there) and the football program. Aside from the location, it was a normal recruiting visit.

“We sat out at that picnic table in the facility for a couple of hours,” Bob Stoops said. “They were fantastic to be with and visit with.”

Adrian told a few schools how important it was to ensure his dad, who was incarcerated when Adrian was 13 after being convicted on federal charges of laundering money acquired from the distribution of crack cocaine, was involved in the recruiting process.

“We had gone through all kinds of red tape for a couple months leading up to being allowed to get in and visit with them,” Stoops said. “So after that, other people tried. But because of all the logistics those people had to coordinate, (the other recruiters) said to heck with this, we’re not doing this anymore.”

USC had tried unsuccessfully to meet with Nelson. And while Peterson liked coach Pete Carroll and assistant coach Ed Orgeron, he wanted his dad to be able to watch his college games, which would’ve been tough if he chose USC. So Orgeron got resourceful.

“I tried to get the guy transferred to (a prison in) Los Angeles,” Orgeron said on “The Dan Patrick Show” last year. “Yeah, I tried. Couldn’t get it done, but I competed.”

Since Peterson didn’t play as a high school sophomore, some schools wanted to see him in person before believing the hype. When a Texas A&M assistant was led into the school and introduced to Peterson — 6-foot-1 and 210 pounds — wearing a sleeveless shirt and seemingly having muscles atop his muscles, Harrell said the coach uttered: “God almighty.”

Texas A&M offered Peterson a scholarship the next day.

Harrell advised Peterson to be polite and accommodating to every college coach who walked through the door. One day, the Oklahoma coaches visited the high school and had trouble locating Peterson. Eventually, he was found in an empty classroom with coaches from Texas A&M-Kingsville, a Division II school.

“He was being as nice as he could be, doing exactly what I told him,” Harrell said with a laugh.

In the spring of 2003, Peterson visited Oklahoma for the first time. The Sooners were two years removed from a national championship and were coming off a win in the Rose Bowl. They had no reason to change their shotgun offense that had resulted in so much success. But before the spring practice that Peterson attended, Gundy, the running backs coach, went over to offensive coordinator Chuck Long and told him: There’s this recruit, and he needs to see us running out of the I-formation. That’s his specialty.

“Well, we didn’t have any I-formation stuff,” Long said.

But he quickly installed a few new plays they could run in front of Peterson.

The Sooners were in their team hotel in New Orleans on Jan. 3, 2004. It was the night before their BCS national championship game against LSU. They were wrapping up a team meeting when quarterback Jason White saw the coaching staff celebrating. Peterson had just committed to Oklahoma on national TV.

“I’lI never forget seeing coach Gundy so excited jumping up and down,” White said. “And I was thinking to myself, ‘What just happened?’ And then I looked at the TV and I saw what was going on. So at that point, I was like, ‘Wow, this guy must be really, really good for coach Gundy to act like that right before the national title game.’”

---

On Oct. 29, 2003, Peterson watched LeBron James make his highly anticipated NBA debut, dropping 25 points as an 18-year-old. Two nights later, Peterson, who is three months younger than James, ran for 305 yards and six touchdowns on 17 carries in a home win over the Athens Hornets. He had touchdown runs of 46, 50 and 61 yards. Two days after that, Peterson was on the sideline for a Dallas Cowboys game, a guest of safety Roy Williams. “I’m having a great time,” Peterson told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.

That September, Maurice Clarett sued the NFL over its rule that players aren’t eligible for the draft until they’ve been out of high school for three years. The suit, combined with James’ status as an 18-year-old in the NBA, opened the door for an obvious discussion: If Clarett wins his case, if there’s no age limit to enter the NFL, could Peterson make the jump straight to the league?

“Physically, there’s no doubt he could’ve,” Gundy said.

“Absolutely he could have,” Stoops said. “You look at him physically, he’s every bit any of them (in the NFL) even at 19 … But he’s a total outlier compared to everybody else. And that’s where when you open those kinds of rules up, now you’re going to have thousands of kids making bad decisions and it not working out for them. So just because one guy can do it doesn’t mean even 10 other guys could. They couldn’t.”

Peterson avoided the debate while in high school but later conceded he thought about making the jump. While he was with the Minnesota Vikings in 2015 (on his way to a third NFL rushing title), Peterson said in a conference call with reporters: “Not to sound cocky or anything, but yeah, I do feel like I could have come out my senior year of high school and played in the NFL.”

Instead, Peterson arrived at Oklahoma in 2004. The first day of fall camp was used for physical testing and conditioning before putting pads on and practicing on the second day. Coaches put Peterson in a group with White, the quarterback coming off a Heisman Trophy-winning season.

“Adrian walks in, and he’s in these tight biker shorts and a cutoff shirt,” White said. “And we’re all like, ‘Oh, that must be a juco transfer.’ I mean, the dude looked like he’d already played in college for four years.”

The testing started with down-and-backs, 100 yards to the opposite end zone, then back. On the first run, Peterson finished in front by 20 yards. The second, it was 30 yards. Upperclassmen started getting mad that the true freshman was showing them up.

“I can remember seeing (strength coach) Jerry Schmidt in the locker room that day saying that AD measured in at 6-foot-2, 216 pounds, and ran a 4.38 (40-yard dash),” Gundy said. “That got everybody’s attention — especially the older guys.”

The upperclassmen figured he’d slow down when pads came on the next day. That’s how it usually went for freshmen. Instead, Peterson took his first carry for a touchdown, the start of a dominating practice. “We knew right then we had a superstar,” Long said.

---

That freshman season for Peterson was White’s sixth at Oklahoma. He had just won the Heisman. Still, he would have to adjust to the talented freshman now sharing the backfield. White dreaded a few play calls — 18 stretch and 19 stretch. They were rushes out wide off the tackle. White had to sprint out of his stance just to get the ball in Peterson’s arms.

“I used to cringe because my biggest fear was I wasn’t going to be able to get him the ball because he was so fast,” White said. “I probably gave the play away every time we ran it because I felt like I had to get in a special stance under center just to be able to get to Adrian.”

Oklahoma initially taught their running backs to stand 7.5 yards behind the ball. But Peterson reached the line too quickly. He was running into his linemen before they had a chance to reach their blocks. So, coaches told Peterson to stand 9 yards behind the ball.

“That and pass protection are the two things that I worked the hardest with him on for three years,” Gundy said. “Like, I know what you do when you get the ball. But you’ve got to have to learn to have some pace and things will get even easier for you.”

Still, Peterson’s 2004 season is considered one of the greatest ever by a true freshman. He ran for 1,925 yards in 13 games that season. He averaged more than a touchdown per game (15 total) and 5.7 yards per carry. He notched more than 100 rushing yards in each of his first nine collegiate games. He finished second in Heisman voting while presumably splitting votes with White, who finished third. (USC’s Matt Leinart won.)

“That’s why his daddy named him AD — All Day,” Gundy said. “Everything that he did, he was the very best.”

Peterson was a star again in 2005, rushing for 1,104 yards and 14 touchdowns. A year later, as a Heisman front-runner, Peterson opened the season as one of the nation’s top rushers, gaining 100 yards or more in each of the first five games. Before the sixth game, Nelson Peterson was released from an Oklahoma City halfway house. Peterson called it “a real big deal” to get to play in front of his dad for the first time since he was 12.

Against Iowa State with his dad in the stands, Peterson totaled 228 yards of offense and two touchdowns. But on his last carry, a 53-yard touchdown run, Peterson broke his collarbone diving into the end zone, ending his regular season and leaving him just shy of Oklahoma’s all-time rushing record held by Billy Sims.

Peterson was the seventh pick in the 2007 draft. He led the league in rushing three times, and his 14,918 all-time rushing yards are the fourth most in league history. He hasn’t officially retired, but he hasn’t played in a game since the 2021 season ended.

Earlier this year, he sent a long video to Harrell. He thanked him for all their work together. The two connected and chatted about those crazy days in high school with opponents asking for autographs and college coaches lining up outside the school. They also recalled all the games Peterson exited early, discussing how large the legend of Adrian Peterson might have been had Harrell let him play more.

Said Harrell: “I told him, you could’ve set records that would be there forever.”

(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; photos: Ronald Martinez, Joe Robbins / Getty Images; Mike Ehrmann / WireImage)

 

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“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, is on sale now. Order it here.

We’re coming down the stretch of the NFL season, and the playoff seedings and Power Rankings are starting to sort themselves out, but that doesn’t mean there haven’t been some surprises along the way. Today, we’re going to look at one surprising aspect of each team’s season.

And then we’re going to start looking forward to a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup in Week 16 of the season.

(Last week: 1)

Sunday: Beat Arizona Cardinals 45-29

Surprise: Brock Purdy

We’ve let all the talk about whether the second-year quarterback is a top-10 quarterback in the league or even possibly the MVP obscure what remains at its heart the most remarkable story in the league. Purdy, the last pick of the 2022 draft, is now 16-3 as a starting quarterback. His passer rating (119) and expected points added per dropback (.32) lead the NFL and both would rank among the top five in the last 10 years in the league, according to TruMedia.

Up next: vs. Baltimore Ravens, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

(Last week: 3)

Sunday: Beat Jacksonville Jaguars 23-7

Surprise: They’ve clinched a playoff spot

Baltimore didn’t even enter the season as the favorite in its division, and now it’s the only team in the AFC to clinch a postseason berth. Lamar Jackson has been Lamar Jackson and the Todd Monken hire at offensive coordinator looks inspired. The Ravens have won eight of their last nine. Watching their defense, which leads the NFL with just 16.1 points per game allowed, go against the 49ers offense next week will be a treat.

Up next: at San Francisco 49ers, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

(Last week: 5)

Sunday: Beat Dallas Cowboys 31-10

Surprise: That they’ve lost six games

The Bills proved Sunday they’re one of the best teams in the league and a Super Bowl contender. More importantly, they got themselves closer to the playoffs, moving into the No. 9 spot in the AFC. Of course, the answer may be as simple as turnovers. The Bills are plus-11 in turnover margin in their wins (fourth in the league) and minus-eight in their losses (20th in the league). They didn’t turn the ball over against the Cowboys and rushed for 266 yards, their highest total since 2016.

Up next: at Los Angeles Chargers, Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

(Last week: 7)

Sunday: Beat New York Jets 30-0

Surprise: Why nobody else just drafted all the fast guys

Tyreek Hill didn’t play Sunday because of an ankle injury, and Miami still had three of the fastest people in the world on the field. Jaylen Waddle had a season-high 142 receiving yards on eight catches, and Raheem Mostert and Devon Achane had a combined 105 yards. The Dolphins have won four of their last five and can beat anybody in the league with their home run power.

Up next: vs. Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Raheem Mostert’s 20 total touchdowns this year (18 rushing, two receiving) ranks second all time among all players 31 years or older, behind only John Riggins (24)
per @pfref

— Danny Kelly (@DannyBKelly) December 18, 2023

(Last week: 2)

Sunday: Lost to Buffalo Bills 31-10

Surprise: How they play on the road

Dallas, which is 7-0 at home, is now below .500 on the road, dropping to 3-4 with Sunday’s loss. The Cowboys lead the league in scoring (39.86 ppg) and scoring margin (plus-171) at home but are 15th in scoring (21.71 ppg) and have a minus-4 scoring margin on the road. This is not good news for a team that probably is going to have to play at Philadelphia or at San Francisco to get to the Super Bowl. It has played in both of those stadiums this year and lost by a combined score of 70-33.

Up next: at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

(Last week: 4)

Monday: Lost to Seattle Seahawks 20-17

Surprise: The panic

The Eagles are the most hand-wringing 1o-win team in the NFL. They already have clinched a playoff spot and still have a good chance to win the NFC East, yet the team and its fans believe the sky is falling because it has hit a rough patch against talented opponents. The Eagles took control of the defense away from coordinator Sean Desai and handed it to Matt Patricia for Monday’s game. That didn’t work so well on the final drive as Drew Lock took the Seahawks 92 yards for the game-winning touchdown, but Philadelphia still has some of the most talented offensive and defensive lines in the league and will be fine in January.

Up next: vs. New York Giants, Monday, 4:30 p.m. ET

(Last week: 8)

Saturday: Beat Denver Broncos 42-17

Surprise: Sam LaPorta

It’s not shocking that the rookie tight end is good, but this good? LaPorta had three touchdown catches Saturday night and now has nine on the season, the fourth-most receiving touchdowns in the league. LaPorta, the No. 34 pick in the 2023 draft, already has 758 receiving yards, the sixth most by a rookie tight end in the history of the league. If he hits his average the rest of the season, he will end up third behind only Mike Ditka and Kyle Pitts.

Up next: at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 6)

Sunday: Beat New England Patriots 27-17

Surprise: How hard it has been

Kansas City guaranteed its 11th straight winning record under Andy Reid, but it wasn’t without more drama. Kadarius Toney dropped a pass that turned into an interception, and the Patriots led 10-7 until the final minute of the first half. The defending Super Bowl champion is the No. 3 seed in the AFC right now. The good news is rookie receiver Rashee Rice had his fourth straight game with at least seven catches and 64 yards to take some of the pressure off Travis Kelce.

Up next: vs. Las Vegas Raiders, Monday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 12)

Sunday: Beat Chicago Bears 20-17

Surprise: That nobody hired Jim Schwartz earlier

Cleveland’s defensive coordinator spent the last two seasons as a senior defensive assistant in Tennessee. Then the Browns put him back in charge of a defense, and Cleveland leads the NFL in defensive splash plays (363). The Browns have a league-high 65 tackles for loss that aren’t sacks and 41 sacks, which ranks eighth in the league, to go along with it. The defense has saved a season in which the offense lost running back Nick Chubb and quarterback Deshaun Watson.

Up next: at Houston Texans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 11)

Sunday: Beat Washington Commanders 28-20

Surprise: They’re in the playoffs at the moment

This was supposed to be a reset year for the Rams, and it looked like it when they started 3-6. Since then, Sean McVay’s crew is 4-1 with the only loss coming to the Ravens. During the winning streak, the Rams are fourth in the league in scoring (29.8 ppg), and Matthew Stafford is fifth in the league in passer rating (105.2) and second in passing touchdowns (13). It’s been good enough to get them to the seventh seed, for now at least.

Up next: vs. New Orleans Saints, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

(Last week: 14)

Sunday: Beat Minnesota Vikings 27-24

Surprise: They’re still in it

Jake Browning won his third game in a row Saturday, and the Bengals are now 3-1 since Joe Burrow’s season ended because of injury. Cincinnati, which is third in scoring in the last three weeks (31.7 ppg), was written out of the playoff race when Burrow went down but is the No. 6 seed in the AFC as of now. The problem is the Bengals have to play Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Cleveland down the stretch.

Up next: at Pittsburgh Steelers, Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

12. Seattle Seahawks (7-7)

(Last week: 17)

Monday: Beat Philadelphia Eagles 20-17

Surprise: The defense

Pete Carroll is known for defense, but the Seahawks are 27th in the NFL in defensive EPA per snap and have given up more plays of 10-plus yards (190) than all but two teams in the league. However, the defense got the job done Monday night, holding an illness-slowed Jalen Hurts and the Eagles to 17 points to stop a four-game losing streak. They’re just one spot out of a playoff spot with the Titans, Steelers and Cardinals left on their schedule.

Up next: at Tennessee Titans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 13)

Sunday: Beat Tennessee Titans 19-16 in OT

Surprise: Another Kyle Shanahan disciple

Is there no end to the number of really good play callers San Francisco’s head coach can create in his lab? Texans first-year offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is 36 years old and had only one year as a full-fledged member of the 49ers staff before joining DeMeco Ryans in Houston. Before that, Slowik had several secondary roles in San Francisco. On Sunday, he helped backup quarterback Case Keenum to a victory that keeps the Texans in the playoff race and keeps him on the radar for head coaching jobs.

Up next: vs. Cleveland Browns, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 15)

Sunday: Beat Pittsburgh Steelers 30-13

Surprise: This team is in the playoff race

The Colts were 4-12 last season. They lost quarterback Anthony Richardson, the No. 4 pick in the draft, in the fourth game of the year. Jonathan Taylor has played in only seven games. And yet, Indianapolis is eighth in the league in scoring (24.6 ppg) and has the No. 7 spot in the playoff race right now. Shane Steichen is making a strong case for coach of the year.

Up next: at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 9)

Sunday: Lost to Detroit Lions 42-17

Surprise: Sean Payton-Russell Wilson is kind of working

Or at least it was until Saturday night when Payton had a very animated, and seemingly one-way, conversation with Wilson on the sideline. It was what everyone expected from their relationship headed into the season, but things had been going pretty well. After a career-low 84.4 passer rating in his first season in Denver, Wilson has bounced back to a 97.5 this year and has at least made it plausible he could be Denver’s starting quarterback next season.

Up next: vs. New England Patriots, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 16)

Sunday: Lost to Baltimore Ravens 23-7

Surprise: That Trevor Lawrence isn’t better

The No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft is good, but he was expected to be great. Lawrence is ninth in the league in passing yards (3,525) but just 21st in touchdown-to-interception ratio (1.8) and 23rd in EPA per attempt (.08). Sunday’s loss highlighted some of the frustrations with Lawrence, who threw an ill-advised pass at the end of the first half that cost the Jaguars points, and he simply dropped a ball without being touched on a scramble.

Up next: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

(Last week: 20)

Sunday: Beat Green Bay Packers 34-20

Surprise: They’re going to win the division

It’s not set in stone yet, but the odds are now 61.6 percent, according to The Athletic’s NFL betting model. This is the team that had the lowest preseason win prediction in the NFC South and lost six of seven games at one point this season. However, Tampa Bay has now won three in a row. Baker Mayfield, who Sunday became the first opposing quarterback ever to have a perfect passer rating at Lambeau Field, threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns against the Packers.

Up next: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

18. Green Bay Packers (6-8)

(Last week: 10)

Sunday: Lost to Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34-20

Surprise: How inconsistent they are

Beat the Lions and Chiefs? Lose to the Giants and the Buccaneers? Sure, the Packers have done all that in the last month. Oft-analyzed quarterback Jordan Love hasn’t been the biggest problem, either. The defense is 29th in success rate (56.4) and 23rd in yards per play allowed (5.4). On Sunday, the Packers surrendered the only perfect passer rating of Mayfield’s six-year career and 452 yards to the Buccaneers to fall into 11th place in the NFC.

Up next: at Carolina Panthers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 18)

Saturday: Lost to Cincinnati Bengals 27-24

Surprise: The Justin Jefferson mystery

In the seven games Jefferson has played, he’s averaging 97.43 receiving yards per game, which ranks behind only Tyreek Hill. However, after Saturday, Minnesota is 2-5 when he’s in the lineup. In games Jefferson has missed because of injury, the Vikings are 5-2. Nick Mullens became the fourth quarterback to start a game for Minnesota on Saturday. He threw for 303 yards and two touchdowns but also had two interceptions.

Up next: vs. Detroit Lions, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

20. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)

(Last week: 19)

Saturday: Lost to Indianapolis Colts 30-13

Surprise: George Pickens is still on the team

The second-year wide receiver’s attitude has been enough of a problem that coach Mike Tomlin felt the need to tell the team’s official website that he and Pickens had “a great meeting” last week. It must not have been that great because Pickens had two embarrassing clips surface from Saturday’s game — one on which he put hardly any effort into a run block and one on which he seemed to run away from the opposing ball carrier after an interception. He leads the team with 52 catches for 814 yards, but it might not be worth all this.

Up next: vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

(Last week: 22)

Sunday: Beat New York Giants 24-6

Surprise: Derek Carr keeps getting away with it

Last week, the story was the New Orleans quarterback getting into another in-game argument with a teammate (adding center Erik McCoy to a list that includes wide receiver Chris Olave and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael). This week, he threw three touchdown passes and had a 134.8 rating as the Saints won their second straight to stay alive in the playoff race.

Up next: at Los Angeles Rams, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Carr finds Juwan Johnson as he steps into the end zone! TD @Saints

: #NYGvsNO on FOX
: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/ktajaC4VDv

— NFL (@NFL) December 17, 2023

(Last week: 28)

Thursday: Beat Los Angeles Chargers 63-21

Surprise: That offensive showing

Only one team, Miami in this year’s 70-20 win over Denver, has scored more points in a game since at least 2000. The Dolphins have Mike McDaniel calling plays and the fastest skill position group in the league. The Raiders have an interim head coach, Antonio Pierce, and a rookie quarterback, Aidan O’Connell, who even after Thursday is only 30th in the league in passer rating. It’s probably not enough to get Pierce the full-time job, but he’s 3-3 since taking the helm.

Up next: at Kansas City Chiefs, Monday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 21)

Sunday: Lost to Carolina Panthers 9-7

Surprise: The offense is bad

Arthur Smith, who is in his third season, was hired for his offensive acumen. The Falcons have drafted an offensive skill-position player in the top 10 in each of the last three drafts. Their $46.6 million investment in their offensive line is the fourth-highest in the NFL. And yet they are 26th in the NFL in points (18.43) after scoring just seven Sunday against a one-win Carolina team. Now there’s a chance Smith is on his way out in Atlanta.

Up next: vs. Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 23)

Sunday: Lost to Cleveland Browns 20-17

Surprise: There’s still no answer on Justin Fields

With only three games left in the season, Chicago still doesn’t appear to have a clear answer about whether it should stick with Fields at quarterback or use the Panthers’ pick it acquired last March to take Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. Sunday was a “move on” game. Fields completed 19-for-40 passes for 166 yards and had a 46.5 passer rating. For the season, he is 23rd in passer rating (85.6) but is eighth in scramble EPA (17.72), according to TruMedia.

Up next: vs. Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

(Last week: 24)

Sunday: Lost to Miami Dolphins 30-0

Surprise: Garrett Wilson is a top-25 receiver

Despite Zach Wilson and everything else that has gone wrong in New York, Garrett Wilson has 882 receiving yards, the 22nd most in the league. If that doesn’t sound that impressive, remember that the Jets are 30th in the NFL with 170 passing yards per game. Wilson led New York in receiving Sunday, but it was a pretty hollow achievement considering he had only three catches for 29 yards.

Up next: vs. Washington Commanders, Sunday 1 p.m. ET

26. New York Giants (5-9)

(Last week: 25)

Sunday: Lost to New Orleans Saints 24-6

Surprise: They screwed up the 2024 draft

The Tommy DeVito story is great, or at least was until Sunday when New York lost for the first time in a month, but how fondly will it be remembered in New York in the future? The three wins that DeVito led before this have moved the Giants to the No. 7 pick in the 2024 draft at the moment. There’s still hope considering New York has to play the Eagles twice in the final three games, but for now the Giants still don’t have an answer to their quarterback problem.

Up next: at Philadelphia Eagles, Monday, 4:30 p.m. ET

27. Tennessee Titans (5-9)

(Last week: 26)

Sunday: Lost to Houston Texans 19-16 in OT

Surprise: Derrick Henry is human

The last seven seasons had convinced us otherwise, but the Titans and their otherworldly running back are looking like they are near the end of their runs. On Sunday, Henry had the fewest yards (10) for any player with 20 or more touches in NFL history, and after the game, he indicated it could be his last season with the Titans. Tennessee was eliminated from the playoff race when Case Keenum led Houston to 10 points in the final 3:03 and overtime on Sunday.

Up next: vs. Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 27)

Thursday: Lost to Las Vegas Raiders 63-21

Surprise: That it took this long

The Chargers finally fired Brandon Staley, who fell to 24-24 in three seasons with Thursday night’s embarrassing loss. It was the fifth loss in the last six games for Los Angeles, which entered the season with playoff hopes and now is the second-worst team in the AFC, ahead of only the Patriots. Staley was hired because he was supposed to be an up-and-coming defensive guru, but the Chargers are 27th in points (24.6) and yards per play (5.6) allowed.

Up next: vs. Buffalo Bills, Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

29. Arizona Cardinals (3-11)

(Last week: 29)

Sunday: Lost to San Francisco 49ers 45-29

Surprise: Nothing really

This team is exactly what we thought it would be. There was a moment (remember the Week 3 win over Dallas?) when Arizona looked like it might be plucky, but the only wins since have come against the reeling Falcons and Steelers. The Cardinals have ended up where they want to be, in the mix to draft one of the top two quarterbacks in the league.

Up next: at Chicago Bears, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

30. New England Patriots (3-11)

(Last week: 30)

Sunday: Lost to Kansas City Chiefs 27-17

Surprise: The record

Bill Belichick hasn’t had fewer than seven wins in a season since 2000, and he’s on track for the fewest wins in his 29-year head coaching career. The Patriots are 28-36 since Tom Brady left after the 2019 season, but nobody expected things to be this bad. New England is 28th in the league in scoring margin (minus-113) and is in the bottom third of the league in both rushing and passing yards per game.

Up next: at Denver Broncos, Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET

(Last week: 31)

Sunday: Lost to Los Angeles Rams 28-20

Surprise: The Sam Howell lovefest

Ron Rivera said he pulled Howell from Sunday’s game to protect him because the Rams defense was in a position to be very aggressive in its pass rush. Then Jacoby Brissett went 8-for-10 and led two touchdown drives in the fourth quarter. Howell is seventh in the league in passing yards (3,568), but his negative plays have outweighed all that yardage. Howell leads the league in both interceptions (15) and sacks (59).

Up next: at New York Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

32. Carolina Panthers (2-12)

(Last week: 32)

Sunday: Beat Atlanta Falcons 9-7

Surprise: They won a game

In pouring rain in a nearly empty home stadium against an Atlanta team still in the race for the division title, Carolina put together a 90-yard drive and kicked the winning field goal as time expired. It doesn’t change how bad this season has been, but at least it made the Panthers feel a little better about themselves. “Obviously, we’re not gonna clinch anything, but it feels good to mess up their Christmas,” defensive end Brian Burns said.

Up next: vs. Green Bay Packers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Top photo of Bills running back James Cook: Rich Barnes / Getty Images)

---

“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, is on sale now. Order it here.

It’s Week 15 in the NFL, which means millions of Americans are sweating their fantasy football team’s playoff positioning because this is the week the playoffs begin in most leagues. Pride, cash and the dreaded last-place punishments all are on the line.

The Power Rankings is getting into the spirit with a fantasy focus for this week’s theme. We’re going to look at one notable fantasy football player (or unit) from each team and how he is helping — or hurting — the real-life team’s season. (We’re using the standard league scoring points accumulated by TruMedia.)

(Last week: 1)

Sunday: Beat Seattle Seahawks 28-16

Fantasy spotlight: Christian McCaffrey

Just like on the field, it’s tough to pick which 49er to highlight, but McCaffrey is the San Francisco MVP at least in fantasy (259.4 points) with the fourth-most points of any player in the NFL. The 49ers are the only team with two players in the top 10 (Brock Purdy is sixth at 249.9) and four players in the top 50 (add Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk). In real life, Purdy has passed for 368 yards, and McCaffrey, Samuel and Aiyuk all have had more than 100 as San Francisco inches closer to a first-round bye.

Up next: at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

(Last week: 3)

Sunday: Beat Philadelphia Eagles 33-13

Fantasy spotlight: Dak Prescott

The Cowboys quarterback strengthened his MVP candidacy Sunday night by leading Dallas to a resounding win over the Eagles. Thus far, this is the third-best fantasy season of Prescott’s career (20.98 points per game). On the field, it may be his best. He is second in the league in EPA per attempt (.29) and passer rating (107.5) and his touchdown-to-interception ratio (4.7) is the best of any quarterback with more than 250 attempts this season.

Up next: at Buffalo Bills, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

(Last week: 2)

Sunday: Beat Los Angeles Rams 37-31 (OT)

Fantasy spotlight: Odell Beckham Jr.

After a slow start, Beckham has had at least 9.6 fantasy points per game in four of his last five games. He had a season-high 15.7 on Sunday after posting 97 yards and catching four passes that resulted in either a first down or a touchdown. His ascendance has helped the Ravens overcome the loss of tight end Mark Andrews and stay in position for the top seed in the AFC.

Up next: at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

ODELL BECKHAM JR.

: #LARvsBAL on FOX
: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/jXBOn3VhvK

— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2023

4. Philadelphia Eagles (10-3)

(Last week: 5)

Sunday: Lost to Dallas Cowboys 33-13

Fantasy spotlight: A.J. Brown

In the last four weeks, a span in which Philadelphia is 2-2, the Eagles wide receiver is averaging 7.33 fantasy points per game. That’s after averaging 15.17 in Weeks 1-9. During that span, Brown was the second-leading receiver in the league (1,005 yards), and the Eagles had the third-most productive offense in the league (376.8) and an 8-1 record. As he has slumped, so have the Eagles, who are 21st in yards per game in Weeks 10-14 (318.3).

Up next: at Seattle Seahawks, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

(Last week: 8)

Sunday: Beat Kansas City Chiefs 20-17

Fantasy spotlight: Josh Allen

Allen leads all players this season with 307.28 fantasy points. It’s his lowest points-per-game output of the last four years, and it’s still the 13th-best fantasy season of the last five seasons in the NFL. That’s how much of the offense Allen is carrying in Buffalo. He wasn’t spectacular against the Chiefs on Sunday (23-for-42 for 233 yards, one passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown), but the Bills don’t win that game (or many games at all) without him.

Up next: vs. Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

6. Kansas City Chiefs (8-5)

(Last week: 7)

Sunday: Lost to Buffalo Bills 20-17

Fantasy spotlight: Kadarius Toney

All the NFL’s focus is on Toney this week after his offside penalty wiped out what would have been his game-winning touchdown against the Bills on Sunday night, and all the Chiefs freaked out about it. This is not what Kansas City expected when it traded a third- and a sixth-round pick for Toney last season. He is 106th among wide receivers in fantasy points (25.5) this season. In 22 games with the Chiefs, he has only two games with more than 50 receiving yards. This season, he has none with more than 35.

Up next: at New England Patriots, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 4)

Monday: Lost to Tennessee Titans 28-27

Fantasy spotlight: Tyreek Hill

This was going to be De’Von Achane, who is 68th among all players in fantasy points (122.6) despite playing in only seven games this year. That was before Hill’s health came into question after he suffered an ankle injury in the first quarter Monday night against the Titans. Hill was in and out of the lineup the rest of the night but finished with only four catches for 61 yards, his third-lowest total of the season and the first time in a month he’s been held under 100 yards. If Hill is not at full strength, Miami might not be in the top 10 long. He’s still the only wide receiver in the league in the top 20 in fantasy points (225.7)

Up next: vs. New York Jets, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 6)

Sunday: Lost to Chicago Bears 28-13

Fantasy spotlight: The rookies

Running back Jahmyr Gibbs and tight end Sam LaPorta are each top 11 in fantasy points among rookies this season. Only the Houston Texans also have multiple rookies in that group. Gibbs is fifth with 134, and LaPorta is 11th with 110.6. However, each was pedestrian Sunday as Detroit lost for the second time in three games, leaving the Vikings within striking distance of the division lead.

Up next: vs. Denver Broncos, Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET

(Last week: 15)

Sunday: Beat Los Angeles Chargers 24-7

Fantasy spotlight: Courtland Sutton

In the last seven games, a stretch in which Denver has won six games, Sutton is 15th among wide receivers in fantasy points (10.91 per game), and he is carrying the Broncos’ passing game. Since Week 7, Sutton has accounted for 49.7 percent of Denver’s air yards. That ranks second in the NFL behind only Garrett Wilson. He had a 46-yard touchdown catch Sunday, his 10th of the season.

Up next: at Detroit Lions, Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET

(Last week: 12)

Monday: Lost to New York Giants 24-22

Fantasy spotlight: Jordan Love

Since Week 9, Love is the sixth-best quarterback in fantasy football (110.58 points). That stretch coincides with Green Bay winning four of six games. Monday night was a step back as the Giants’ blitz-happy scheme harried him into a 76.7 passer rating (25-for-39 for 218 yards, one touchdown and one interception). Still, Love’s maturation in the last six weeks gives the Packers hope they have hit on a third straight quarterback.

Up next: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 10)

Sunday: Lost to Baltimore Ravens 37-31 (OT)

Fantasy spotlight: Kyren Williams

The No. 3 fantasy running back this season based on points per game (17.67), Williams is as responsible for the Rams’ success or failure as anyone on the roster. Sunday was the first time this season the Rams have lost when he topped 100 rushing yards. A fifth-round pick in 2022, Williams totaled 139 yards last season. This year, he is averaging 89 yards per game, which is second behind only Christian McCaffrey.

Up next: vs. Washington Commanders, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Kyren Williams balling out in his first game back in over a month

: #LARvsAZ on FOX
: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/zn5zWAYKgr

— NFL (@NFL) November 26, 2023

(Last week: 16)

Sunday: Beat Jacksonville Jaguars 31-27

Fantasy spotlight: The defense

Opponents are averaging 57.37 fantasy points per game against the Browns defense this season, which is the lowest total for the season and fourth-lowest total in the last five seasons. It’s also worth noting that Joe Flacco has more fantasy points than all but five quarterbacks in the last two weeks of this wacky NFL season.

Up next: vs. Chicago Bears, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

13. Houston Texans (7-6)

(Last week: 9)

Sunday: Lost to New York Jets 30-6

Fantasy spotlight: C.J. Stroud

The rookie quarterback had his worst game of the season Sunday — 91 yards, a 54.8 passer rating, 4 yards per attempt, zero touchdowns. Still, he’s seventh in the league in fantasy points with 241.5, which leads all other rookies by almost 100 points. Third-year receiver Nico Collins deserves a mention for being the 13th-most productive wide receiver (11.37 ppg) after two pedestrian years in the league.

Up next: at Tennessee Titans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 19)

Sunday: Beat Indianapolis Colts 34-14

Fantasy spotlight: Jake Browning

The undrafted rookie is sixth among quarterbacks in fantasy points in the last three weeks (61.34). When Joe Burrow was lost for the season, the Bengals were written off right along with him, but Browning has led Cincinnati to two straight wins. In the last two weeks, he is first in the league in completion percentage (82 percent), second in passing yards (629) and third in yards per attempt (10.3) and passer rating (119.2).

Up next: vs. Minnesota Vikings, Saturday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 11)

Sunday: Lost 34-14 to Cincinnati Bengals

Fantasy spotlight: Zack Moss

Moss is why no team in the NFL wants to pay running backs. After a preseason full of angst over Jonathan Taylor, Moss, a third-round pick by Buffalo acquired in a trade and counting $1.2 million against the salary cap this season, is second on the team in fantasy points (130.3) behind only quarterback Gardner Minshew. Sunday wasn’t a good day, though. With Taylor out, Moss was held to 28 yards as Indianapolis had a four-game winning streak snapped.

Up next: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

(Last week: 14)

Sunday: Lost 31-27 to Cleveland Browns

Fantasy spotlight: Trevor Lawrence

The No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft is 14th among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game (17.10). That’s not terrible, but it’s not the ceiling he was expected to have. Lawrence threw three interceptions Sunday, which gives him 10 this season, tied for fifth most in the league. In the last three seasons, Lawrence has 35 interceptions. Only Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Mac Jones have thrown more, and Lawrence’s touchdown-to-interception ratio (1.5) is a lot closer to Jones’ than to Allen’s or Mahomes’.

Up next: vs. Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

(Last week: 13)

Sunday: Lost to San Francisco 49ers 28-16

Fantasy spotlight: Geno Smith

Without Smith (out with a groin injury), the Seahawks lost their fourth straight game Sunday and fell to the No. 9 spot in the NFC playoff race. He’s still worth mentioning here because of his career revival. Smith has had more fantasy points in his last 30 games in Seattle (492.52) than he had in his first seven years in the NFL combined (381.8). He’s questionable for this week’s game, but the Seahawks need him back as soon as possible.

Up next: vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

18. Minnesota Vikings (7-6)

(Last week: 20)

Sunday: Beat Las Vegas Raiders 3-0

Fantasy spotlight: T.J. Hockenson

The fifth-year tight end is on pace for a career season and is third among tight ends in fantasy points (111.9). He had five catches for 53 yards Sunday, which accounted for 22.9 percent of Minnesota’s total yards. The Vikings, who became the second team this season to win a game in which they averaged 3.3 yards per play or fewer (joining the Falcons who beat the Jets averaging 3 yards per play in Week 13), are currently the NFC’s No. 6 seed.

Up next: at Cincinnati Bengals, Saturday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 18)

Thursday: Lost to New England Patriots 21-18

Fantasy spotlight: Jaylen Warren

Pittsburgh, which has now lost to Arizona and New England in back-to-back weeks, doesn’t have a lot to feel good about offensively, but Warren is an exception. The 2022 undrafted free agent is third on the team in fantasy points (104.4), which ranks 29th among running backs in the league. Warren has more yards from scrimmage (884) than 2021 first-round pick Najee Harris.

Up next: at Indianapolis Colts, Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

(Last week: 21)

Sunday: Beat Atlanta Falcons 29-25

Fantasy spotlight: Mike Evans

Despite being held to one catch for 8 yards by the Falcons on Sunday, the 10th-year veteran is the No. 5 wide receiver in fantasy points this season (162). He is second in the league in receiving touchdowns (10) and about the only offensive highlight for Tampa Bay, which currently is the NFC No. 4 seed thanks to a tiebreaker lead in the NFC South.

Up next: at Green Bay Packers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

21. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)

(Last week: 17)

Sunday: Lost to Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29-25

Fantasy spotlight: Bijan Robinson

The rookie running back is second among first-year players in fantasy points (149) behind only Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. His 1,110 yards from scrimmage rank second among rookies behind only Puka Nacua, and he has three more touchdowns than Nacua for the season. He leads Atlanta, which fell out of first place in the NFC South with Sunday’s loss, in yards and touchdowns.

Up next: at Carolina Panthers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week 24)

Sunday: Beat Carolina Panthers 28-6

Fantasy spotlight: Taysom Hill

Hill is averaging 7.7 fantasy points per game, which basically makes him as valuable as Garrett Wilson (7.71) even though Hill has no true position. He is the only player in the league with at least 70 yards passing, rushing and receiving — 72 passing, 346 rushing and 229 receiving. In his seventh season, Hill is third in the NFL among players with more than 30 carries in rushing success rate (56.7 percent).

Up next: vs. New York Giants, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 27)

Sunday: Beat Detroit Lions 28-13

Fantasy spotlight: DJ Moore

Moore is seventh among all wide receivers in fantasy points per game (11.94) despite playing with a quarterback (Justin Fields) who is 28th in the league in passing yards (1,810). Moore has 1,071 receiving yards and is 16th in the league in yards per reception (14.1). If the Bears move on from Fields, Moore will be a huge help to a young quarterback.

Up next: at Cleveland Browns, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

24. New York Jets (5-8)

(Last week: 30)

Sunday: Beat Houston Texans 30-6

Fantasy spotlight: The defense

The Jets are sixth in the NFL in fantasy points allowed (62.11) this season, and that should be graded on a curve given how hard the offense has made it on their defense. The Jets held a Houston offense that came into the game sixth in the NFL in yards per game (373.1) to 135 yards Sunday. That’s the third-lowest total of the season. (The lowest, second-lowest and fourth-lowest totals this season came against the Browns.)

Up next: at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 25)

Monday: Beat Green Bay Packers 24-22

Fantasy spotlight: Tommy DeVito

In six games, the last four of which he has started, the UDFA rookie from New Jersey who moved back into his parents’ home after signing with the Giants, has 79.6 fantasy points. That’s 22 points more than Daniel Jones managed in the six games before his injury opened the door for DeVito. This story is equal parts sweet and sad for the Giants, who gave Jones a four-year deal that could be worth up to $160 million in the offseason and now sincerely have to wonder which quarterback is better after DeVito led the Giants to their third straight win Monday night.

Up next: at New Orleans Saints, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

26. Tennessee Titans (5-8)

(Last week: 28)

Monday: Beat Miami Dolphins 28-27

Fantasy spotlight: Derrick Henry

In his eighth year, Henry leads the Titans and is fourth among running backs in the NFL in fantasy points (171.78). Henry had only 34 yards on 17 carries Monday night so this is more of a career appreciation section, but Henry deserves that. He is averaging more than 1,300 yards per season in the last six seasons, and he’s on pace to top 1,000 yards for the fifth time in the last six seasons.

Up next: vs. Houston Texans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

I’m still not sure we appreciate how insane of an athlete this guy is.

That’s 6-3, 250 getting up like that. pic.twitter.com/TeLTdrLSYU

— Robert Mays (@robertmays) December 12, 2023

(Last week: 22)

Sunday: Lost to Denver Broncos 24-7

Fantasy spotlight: Keenan Allen

Along with Mike Evans in Tampa Bay, Allen is leading the way for the old-guy receivers this season. In his 11th year, Allen is third at his position in fantasy points (170.86). His 95.6 yards per game are the highest of his career, and he’s third in the league in target percentage, getting 32 percent of the Chargers’ throws. His only problem is quarterback Justin Herbert might be done for the season with a finger injury suffered Sunday.

Up next: at Las Vegas Raiders, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

(Last week: 23)

Sunday: Lost to Minnesota Vikings 3-0

Fantasy spotlight: Aidan O’Connell

The rookie quarterback showed enough flashes for interim head coach Antonio Pierce to give him the starting job down the stretch, but it hasn’t gone well. O’Connell has fewer fantasy points (59.7) than Jimmy Garoppolo had in six (64.1). His 8.53 fantasy points per game rank 31st among quarterbacks, and he has almost twice as many interceptions as touchdown passes (seven to four). He had a 66 passer rating against the Vikings on Sunday.

Up next: vs. Los Angeles Chargers, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

29. Arizona Cardinals (3-10)

(Last week: 26)

Sunday: Bye

Fantasy spotlight: James Conner

The seventh-year veteran running back quietly is having the best season of his career (6.75 total rushing EPA, the highest of his career) by some measures. He’s the third-most productive Cardinal in terms of fantasy points (90.7). At his current pace, he’ll have 910 rushing yards this season, which would be the second-highest total of his career.

Up next: vs. San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

30. New England Patriots (3-10)

(Last week: 31)

Thursday: Beat Pittsburgh Steelers 21-18

Fantasy spotlight: Mac Jones

Among the quarterbacks with more fantasy points than the 15th pick in the 2021 draft (Jones has 106.4) are Zach Wilson, Kenny Pickett, Bryce Young, Desmond Ridder and Gardner Minshew. The Patriots benched Jones against the Steelers, and Bailey Zappe threw three touchdown passes. It’s hard to imagine Jones ever getting this job back, and now New England owner Robert Kraft has to decide if Bill Belichick gets to pick another quarterback in the first round.

Up next: vs. Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Last week: 29)

Sunday: Bye

Fantasy spotlight: Sam Howell

Not many people would have had the first-year starting quarterback as the No. 7 fantasy quarterback in the league (236.94 points) before the season, but that’s where Howell sits. His surprising production (3,466 passing yards) actually puts Washington in a complicated spot. Count on Howell to iron out the rough spots in his game (14 interceptions, 58 sacks) or take advantage of what should be a high draft position to grab a new starter?

Up next: at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

(Last week: 32)

Sunday: Lost to New Orleans Saints 28-6

Fantasy spotlight: Adam Thielen

Bryce Young could have been listed in this spot, but we’ve piled on Bryce Young a lot here, and Thielen has almost as many fantasy points as his quarterback (109.3 for Thielen to 119.78 for Young). In his 11th year, the 33-year-old is on pace for his best season since 2018 and just the third 1,000-yard season of his career. At the moment, he’s 20th in the league with 827 yards.

Up next: vs. Atlanta Falcons, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

(Top photo of Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert: Rich Storry / Getty Images)

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