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Nikki Haley’s exit from the presidential race this morning all but secures former President Donald Trump the Republican nomination, in a battle that has produced remarkably little tension. But that wasn’t always the case. Just a year ago, less than half of Republican voters were in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average called Trump their favorite candidate. Was […]

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Nikki Haley’s exit from the presidential race this morning all but secures former President Donald Trump the Republican nomination, in a battle that has produced remarkably little tension. But that wasn’t always the case.

Just a year ago, less than half of Republican voters were in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average called Trump their favorite candidate. Was that troubled landscape an illusion? Or were there moments on Trump’s path to victory that could have led to a different outcome?

I have presented this thought experiment to several political observers. They reflected on a number of moments that are deeply significant in retrospect, starting in the final days of Trump’s presidency, and discussed how things could have turned out differently.

One scenario would have unequivocally changed the course of the election: a Senate conviction of Trump following his impeachment in the House of Representatives for his role in the January 6 Capitol riot, which would have paved the way for his disqualification from running for office. ever run for office again.

Initially, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell entertained the idea of ​​supporting impeachment. He told colleagues he was glad Democrats would move to impeach Trump, believing that would make it easier to purge him from the party. But when the decisive moment came, he voted to acquit Trump, who escaped conviction in the Senate by ten votes. (McConnell endorsed Trump today.)

The Senate vote was an important early indication that Republican elites, who would have been happy if Trump had disappeared from the political scene, would not take matters into their own hands, hoping that Republican voters would do the work.

“You need the party to coordinate at least to some extent to remove Trump from the stage and then identify a new leader,” John Sides, a political scientist at Vanderbilt University, said in an email. “I think that would have made for a much tougher primary campaign for Trump, rather than the easy ride he had.”

It appears increasingly unlikely that the most serious criminal case against Trump, federal charges of election interference related to the Jan. 6 riot, will be decided by a jury before Election Day. That’s potentially important for the general election: Recent poll suggests that a criminal conviction could turn a small but potentially crucial portion of voters against Trump in November.

Some critics blame Merrick Garland. The Attorney General reportedly decided in early 2021 to continue a “bottom-up” investigation into the riot, which slowly worked its way up from the participants on the ground to Trump and his associates, rather than starting with higher-level numbers. That approach may have delayed Trump’s indictment in August by many months.

“That was a very traditional choice,” says Benjamin Wittes, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and editor-in-chief of Law. “But it was a choice.”

But as Wittes was quick to point out, even if Trump had been convicted of a serious crime by now, it might not have swayed a meaningful number of Republican primary voters, who broadly believe the charges against him are politically motivated. In a February NBC Poll81 percent of Republican respondents said they would vote for Trump even if he were convicted of a crime.

When Ron DeSantis withdrew from the presidential race in January, many of his political obituaries argued that the Florida governor, once Trump’s biggest threat in the primaries, had made the fatal mistake of waiting too long to enter.

The moment DeSantis began to generate excitement, in late 2022 and early 2023, was a period of real vulnerability for Trump. Republicans had performed poorly in the midterm elections, losing several high-profile races in which Trump supported extreme and inexperienced candidates. “Republicans have followed Donald Trump off the edge of a cliff,” one of his longtime advisers said at the time.

Sarah Longwell, the founder of the Republican Accountability Project and a longtime Trump critic, was conducting focus groups with Republican voters at the time. “We asked the question, ‘Do you want Trump to be the nominee in ’24, or run for ’24?'” she said. “That reached its nadir after the 2022 elections.”

Scott Jennings, a Republican political strategist and former adviser to McConnell and George W. Bush, said, “There was a lot of scrutiny within the Republican Party about losing — and DeSantis was the only guy who won. ”

However, instead of immediately declaring his candidacy, DeSantis waited a few crucial months. By the time he entered the race, Trump had been indicted in the first of several criminal cases. As Republican voters rallied around him, Trump began a steady consolidation of his lead in the polls.

“Politics is often about timing,” Jennings said of DeSantis. “And his timing was wrong.”

Longwell argues that a candidacy like DeSantis’s, or Haley’s for that matter, was most likely doomed in the early days of Trump’s presidency, when Republican leaders and voters, initially divided over Trump’s role on January 6, gradually abandoned him came to defend.

That ensured that any candidate hoping to do anything other than a pointless protest candidacy against Trump would make his case not about Trump’s behavior as president, but about his chances of succeeding in November, she said.

“When Republicans made the case against Trump as a candidate, they didn’t say it was because Trump was bad,” she said. “They just said he couldn’t win.” And when polls this fall consistently showed Trump leading Biden in a close contest, that argument quickly disappeared.

After weeks of campaign ads, political speeches and voting in more than two dozen primaries, Americans are coming to terms with a reality many had tried to avoid: President Biden and former President Donald Trump are once again battling it out for months.

Large segments of Democratic, independent and moderate Republican voters have gone through familiar emotional phases. They have faced denial, in the belief that other candidates would emerge, and bargaining, with fantasies of last-minute newcomers, viable third-party candidates, and swift legal action. They fought the depression because the options were not available.

And now, slowly but surely, acceptance is starting to come.

“Have you ever heard people say, ‘You choose, but that’s not the choice you want’?” said Shalonda Horton, 50, as she walked into a polling station in Austin, Texas, on Tuesday to vote for Biden. “When I get in there, I’ll say, ‘Lord, help me.’”

In Los Angeles, Jason Kohler, who calls himself a progressive Democrat, said he would only vote for Biden with resignation. But he made peace.

“Lesser of two evils right now, you know?” said Kohler, 47. “Voting is already a duty for a citizen, so I feel like you have to do it.”

Complaints about politicians are as old as American politics itself. But pollsters and strategists believe something different is happening this year. Rarely have so many Americans been so unhappy with the direction of the country for so long. Rarely have so many voters said for so long that they want different leaders. Voters who hate both Biden and Trump are talked about so much that they now have their own political name: double haters.

And yet, as the primary calendar progresses, it is becoming increasingly clear that these voters can double, even triple, the hate, and yet their choices will not change. The rematch is here.

Lisa Lerer

Read the full article here.

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The Kremlin warns of an ‘inevitable’ war between Russia and NATO if European members send troops to Ukraine after French President Macron warned that the West has not ‘ruled out’ putting boots on the ground https://usmail24.com/kremlin-warns-inevitable-war-russia-nato-european-members-send-troops-ukraine-french-president-macron-warned-west-not-ruled-putting-boots-ground-htmlns_mchannelrssns_campaign1490ito1490/ https://usmail24.com/kremlin-warns-inevitable-war-russia-nato-european-members-send-troops-ukraine-french-president-macron-warned-west-not-ruled-putting-boots-ground-htmlns_mchannelrssns_campaign1490ito1490/#respond Tue, 27 Feb 2024 17:25:59 +0000 https://usmail24.com/kremlin-warns-inevitable-war-russia-nato-european-members-send-troops-ukraine-french-president-macron-warned-west-not-ruled-putting-boots-ground-htmlns_mchannelrssns_campaign1490ito1490/

The Kremlin warned today that conflict between Russia and NATO would be inevitable if European members sent troops to fight in Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron warned yesterday that European countries have not ruled out putting boots on the ground. He said nothing should be ruled out as the West looks for a strategy to […]

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The Kremlin warned today that conflict between Russia and NATO would be inevitable if European members sent troops to fight in Ukraine.

French President Emmanuel Macron warned yesterday that European countries have not ruled out putting boots on the ground.

He said nothing should be ruled out as the West looks for a strategy to counter Russia, which controls just under a fifth of the territory recognized as Ukraine.

“We will do everything we have to do so that Russia does not win,” Macron said.

“The fact that there is talk of the possibility of sending certain contingents from NATO countries to Ukraine is a very important new element,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said when asked about Macron’s comments.

Asked about the risks if NATO members sent their troops to fight in Ukraine, Peskov said: “In that case we should not talk about the probability, but about the inevitability (of a direct conflict).”

The war in Ukraine has created the worst crisis in Russia’s relations with the West since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, and President Vladimir Putin has previously warned of the dangers of a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia

Ukrainian soldiers of the 68th Separate Fighter Infantry Brigade "Oleksa Dovbush" fire a howitzer at Russian positions on Monday, at a secret location in the Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine

Ukrainian soldiers from the 68th Separate Fighter Infantry Brigade “Oleksa Dovbush” fired a howitzer at Russian positions on Monday, at a secret location in the Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine.

Peskov said the West must ask itself whether such a scenario is in the interests of their countries and peoples.

The war in Ukraine has created the worst crisis in Russia’s relations with the West since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, and President Vladimir Putin has previously warned of the dangers of a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia.

Even talk of a confrontation between Russia and NATO – a Cold War nightmare for leaders and populations alike – points to the dangers of escalation as the West grapples with a resurgent Russia, 32 years after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz today rejected the idea of ​​European countries and NATO sending troops to Ukraine, after Macron said the idea could not be ruled out.

“What has been agreed among ourselves and with each other from the beginning also applies to the future, namely that no soldiers will be sent onto Ukrainian territory by European states or NATO states,” Scholz said.

“Britain already has a small number of personnel in the country supporting Ukraine’s armed forces, including for medical training,” Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s spokesman said today.

“We have no plans for a large-scale deployment,” he said, adding: “The UK is also training large numbers of Ukrainian personnel here in Britain. Of course, we also support the Ukrainian troops by supplying equipment and supplies.”

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who has been accused by critics of being too close to Moscow, said after the meeting that there were divisions on the issue among European leaders.

“There are countries that are willing to send their own soldiers to Ukraine, there are countries that say never – Slovakia is one of them – and there are countries that say this proposal should be considered,” he said.

Macron said nothing should be ruled out as the West was looking for a strategy to counter Russia, which controls just under a fifth of the territory recognized as Ukraine.

Macron said nothing should be ruled out as the West was looking for a strategy to counter Russia, which controls just under a fifth of the territory recognized as Ukraine.

Ukrainian soldiers in their fighting position towards Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast

Ukrainian soldiers in their fighting position towards Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson of Sweden, which is about to join NATO, threw cold water on the idea, saying: “It’s not in the plans at all at the moment.”

Italy said international support for Ukraine does not include the presence of ground troops, and warned against giving the impression of being “at war with Russia.”

“Since the start of Russian aggression two years ago, all allies have been united in the support they can offer Kiev,” the government said in a statement.

“This support does not provide for the presence on Ukrainian territory of troops from European or NATO countries.”

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal confirmed Macron’s comments on Tuesday, saying: “You cannot rule out anything in a war.”

He added: “I remember two years ago many around this table said we would offer sleeping bags and helmets, and now they say we need to do more and faster to have missiles and tanks.”

Russia and the United States – the major power behind NATO – have the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons in the world. President Joe Biden has warned that a conflict between Russia and NATO could trigger World War III.

After the Russian invasion in 2022, Western leaders said they would help Ukraine defeat Russian forces on the battlefield and expel Russian forces. But that didn’t happen.

Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive failed to break deeply entrenched Russian lines and Russia has pushed deeper into Ukrainian territory just as American support for Ukraine is embroiled in domestic political debates in the US.

A White House official told Reuters that the United States had no plans to send troops to fight in Ukraine, nor were there any plans to send NATO troops to fight in Ukraine.

Putin describes the United States and its allies as a crumbling empire that wants to destroy Russia and steal its natural resources. The West sees Putin as a dictator and a murderer, and Putin’s Russia as an enemy.

The United States has denied Russian claims that it wants to destroy Russia, but Biden called Putin a “crazy SOB” earlier this month and American sources have said Russia plans to place a nuclear weapon in space.

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What happens if Putin WINS in Ukraine? ‘Catastrophic’ change to world order ‘would lead to the fall of NATO, economic carnage and inevitable nuclear war once autocrats see that US and the West are beatable’ https://usmail24.com/what-happens-putin-wins-ukraine-catastrophic-change-world-order-lead-fall-nato-economic-carnage-inevitable-nuclear-war-autocrats-west-beatable-htmlns_mchannelrssns_campaign1490ito1490/ https://usmail24.com/what-happens-putin-wins-ukraine-catastrophic-change-world-order-lead-fall-nato-economic-carnage-inevitable-nuclear-war-autocrats-west-beatable-htmlns_mchannelrssns_campaign1490ito1490/#respond Sat, 27 Jan 2024 09:14:42 +0000 https://usmail24.com/what-happens-putin-wins-ukraine-catastrophic-change-world-order-lead-fall-nato-economic-carnage-inevitable-nuclear-war-autocrats-west-beatable-htmlns_mchannelrssns_campaign1490ito1490/

With Ukraine’s much anticipated counteroffensive stalling and Western military support waning, there are now real fears that Vladimir Putin could be victorious and destroy the nation.  Any move to halt or reduce aid packages to Ukraine – as we’ve already seen with US Republicans blocking £50billion of funding – would play into Putin’s hands by kneecapping […]

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With Ukraine’s much anticipated counteroffensive stalling and Western military support waning, there are now real fears that Vladimir Putin could be victorious and destroy the nation. 

Any move to halt or reduce aid packages to Ukraine – as we’ve already seen with US Republicans blocking £50billion of funding – would play into Putin’s hands by kneecapping Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield against advancing Russian troops.

A victory for Russia wouldn’t just mean the ‘destruction’ of Ukraine and its people – it would be ‘catastrophic’ to the West and turn global world order on its head, warns Oleksandr Danylyuk, an associate fellow at the defence and security think tank RUSI. 

Indeed, a win for Russia against Ukraine would ‘undoubtedly’ result in the fall of NATO, ‘economic carnage’ for the West as well as the rise of foes including China, Iran and North Korea, retired US General Ben Hodges tells MailOnline.

At the crux of this is the fact that Russia and the Global South would see a Ukrainian defeat as a military loss for the West – it would show the world that NATO, led by the US, is capable of sacrificing a European nation in order to avoid a nuclear conflict.

And once autocrats realise that the US and the West are beatable, a nuclear war would be ‘inevitable’ and the world would be consumed in bloodshed, Danylyuk says in a terrifying prediction. 

Indeed, Danylyuk says the world will have been watching as Ukraine, which gave up the world’s third-largest arsenal of nuclear weapons in 1993, was defeated by Russia’s military amid daily threats of Moscow incinerating the country with nukes. 

And that would send a strong message: The only way for non-nuclear states to protect themselves against an attack by countries with nukes – like China and Russia – would be to have weapons of mass destruction of their own. 

Yet with the number of nations possessing nuclear arsenals increasing, it would be ‘only a matter of time’ before a state – or terrorist organisation – uses them, Danylyuk says. 

Mortar platoon soldiers with an 82mm mortar perform a combat mission as Ukrainian soldiers hold their positions in the snow-covered Serebryan Forest in temperatures of -15C in Kreminna, Ukraine

Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline take part in a medical training in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on January 14

Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline take part in a medical training in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on January 14

Russian T-72B3 tanks fire at Ukrainian fortified positions in Ukraine in undated footage

Russian T-72B3 tanks fire at Ukrainian fortified positions in Ukraine in undated footage

A Russian Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile launch from Russia in 2022

A Russian Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile launch from Russia in 2022

Indeed, a win for Russia against Ukraine would 'undoubtedly' result in the fall of NATO , 'economic carnage' for the West as well as the rise of foes including China , Iran and North Korea , retired US General Ben Hodges (pictured) tells MailOnline

Indeed, a win for Russia against Ukraine would ‘undoubtedly’ result in the fall of NATO , ‘economic carnage’ for the West as well as the rise of foes including China , Iran and North Korea , retired US General Ben Hodges (pictured) tells MailOnline 

‘Breaking the taboo on the use of nuclear weapons would create a new reality, the tragic characteristics of which are hard to imagine,’ Danylyuk says in the RUSI report.

Ultimately, a victory would see a ‘catastrophic’ change to world order that would have devastating consequences for civilians living across Europe and the US. 

It would destroy the perception of the US as the world’s military power and encourage countries such as China, Iran and North Korea to continue their military expansion, Danylyuk says. 

‘A Russian victory would also force the countries of the Global South to seek special relationships with these countries, displacing the US as an international security broker,’ Danylyuk, who is an expert in multidimensional warfare, says.  

Gen. Hodges, the former Commanding General of US Army Europe, agrees and says a Russian victory would see the rise of the Kremlin’s allies. 

He says Iran and North Korea will most likely manage to develop effective nuclear weapons in the next few years, which will pose a direct threat to the West and could lead to a nuclear war that would see tens of thousands killed. 

‘That’s why it’s so important now to have a nuclear deterrent,’ Gen. Hodges says. ‘If we allow Iran and North Korea to develop nuclear capabilities then we are going to be regretting that forever.’ 

He said a Russian victory would also mean that nuclear states – Pakistan, India, North Korea, Iran – would become unstable and could result in terrorists getting their hands on nuclear weapons and launching terror attacks on the streets of Europe. 

‘Lots of these countries would become more unsettled and fragile,’ Gen. Hodges says.

And as the West descends into years of instability while Russia casts its iron grip over Ukraine, Gen. Hodges says Putin will set his sights on launching an attack on NATO soil.

He says a Trump presidency would open the door even further for Putin to launch his attack on Europe because of the Republican’s lack of support for NATO. 

Gen. Hodges says if Donald Trump is elected in November, it would weaken NATO and could leave Europe as ‘sitting ducks’ for Putin and his forces without any protection.

Gen. Hodges says if Putin believes that NATO is becoming ‘disunified’ due to a Trump presidency, the Russian warmonger would think ‘we can attack now’. 

Indeed, he believes that if Trump was president, the likelihood of Putin launching an invasion and sparking WW3 would massively increase. 

And without the protection of US troops – especially the US nuclear umbrella – European countries ‘will not be able to defend themselves in the event of a full-scale war’ with a nuclear state such as Russia, Danylyuk says.

Gen. Hodges says it would be ‘foolish’ to assume that Putin could not invade a Baltic country – like Lithuania, Poland or Estonia – and wreak havoc on civilians across Europe.

In one scenario, Gen. Hodges says Moscow could first attack the narrow strip of land known as Suwalki Gap, sandwiched between Poland, Lithuania and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. 

Even a small attack on this weak point – the only land border between mainland Europe and the Baltic States – could cause huge problems for NATO.

Gen. Hodges said if Putin was successful in blocking the Suwalki gap, Russian forces would use that strip of land and Belarus as a launchpad for the second phase of their offensive. 

And that second phase would involve sending thousands of Russian soldiers, tanks and special forces, to attack one of the Baltic states on NATO’s eastern flank – most likely either Lithuania, Poland or Estonia.

NATO is planning to mobilise 90,000 troops in its largest military manoeuvre since the Cold War in a bid to deter Vladimir Putin

NATO is planning to mobilise 90,000 troops in its largest military manoeuvre since the Cold War in a bid to deter Vladimir Putin

Danish soldiers from the eFP battlegroup take part in maneuvers during NATO exercise Hedgehog on the Estonian-Latvian border in 2022

Danish soldiers from the eFP battlegroup take part in maneuvers during NATO exercise Hedgehog on the Estonian-Latvian border in 2022

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to students of the Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University in Kaliningrad, Russia, on Thursday

A Ukrainian anti-aircraft vehicle fires a target at the Bakhmut frontline, in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on January 13

A Ukrainian anti-aircraft vehicle fires a target at the Bakhmut frontline, in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on January 13

Ukrainian soldiers fire with the Archer Artillery System on Russian position on January 3, 2024 in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine

Ukrainian soldiers fire with the Archer Artillery System on Russian position on January 3, 2024 in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine

William Freer, a research fellow at the think tank Geostrategy, says Russia could likely launch a ‘mass hypersonic attack early in the conflict’ to ‘sow chaos and open vulnerabilities’.  

Gen. Hodges says how NATO responded to an attack on an allied soil will determine the future of Western civilisation and could ‘destroy’ the alliance. 

‘If we hesitated, that failure to live up to our obligations under Article 5 to protect member states, it would break the alliance,’ Gen. Hodges tells MailOnline from his home in Frankfurt, Germany.

Indeed, Gen. Hodges said if it just came down to military capabilities, NATO forces –  with their better soldiers and equipment – would defeat Russia in an all-out war. 

But, he said: ‘The way we would lose is if we failed to respond, if we failed to stick together, if we moved too slowly to protect our NATO members.’ 

Gen. Hodges said it ‘worries him a lot’ that NATO forces ‘cannot move very quickly across Europe’ due to the terrain and how built up much of the area is. 

‘The way we would fail would be if we didn’t react quick enough or hesitated,’ Gen Hodges says. 

‘If the Russians were able to accomplish some penetration of a NATO state of the eastern flank – like Estonia or Lithuania – and then Moscow dared us to do something about it, that would be the real test.’

The retired US General says that if NATO did hesitate, Putin would not stop there. He would deploy his Russian Navy for a vital mission: taking control of the northern Arctic route and reaping in the economic benefits while leaving the West out cold. 

Gen Hodges warns that a win for Russia against a NATO state would mean further  ‘economic carnage’ for the West, the rise of foes including China and the end of the international rules-based order as we know it. 

‘If Russia was successful and won the war, from an economic standpoint, it would be carnage,’ Gen. Hodges tells MailOnline. 

‘The international-rules based order from which the US and the UK have benefited for the last 80 years would be turned upside down,’ Hodges says in an ominous prediction. 

‘Financial markets, control of energy resources, all of this would be in a completely precarious and different state,’ Gen. Hodges says. ‘A big part of a successful economy is confidence – and Russia breaking NATO would shift that. 

‘That would be a major problem for the economy and the various international organisations – like the UN – which make up the rules-based order,’ Hodges says, referring to the international liberal order established by the victorious allies after the Second World War.

‘It would all be turned on its head and there would be chaos and we’d have to try to find another way back to stability,’ Hodges says.

He said Putin would focus his efforts on taking control of the northern Arctic route. With the polar ice cap melting due to climate change, new shipping routes are becoming all the more accessible.

‘Russia will want to dominate that northern route, it would make it much quicker for them to sail over the top of the world and benefit Moscow economically,’ Gen. Hodges said. 

‘With their long-range weapons, they would be able to dominate what goes in and out of the North Atlantic from the Arctic,’ he added, saying this would be economically catastrophic for the West. 

The distance from a northwestern European port to the Far East along the Northeast Sea Route is almost 40% shorter than the traditional route via the Suez Canal. Other sea routes are becoming more accessible for more of the year

The distance from a northwestern European port to the Far East along the Northeast Sea Route is almost 40% shorter than the traditional route via the Suez Canal. Other sea routes are becoming more accessible for more of the year

Russia warns the West by releasing chilling new footage showing the launch of an 'unstoppable' Zircon [Tsirkon] nuclear-capable Mach 9 hypersonic missile from the Admiral Gorshkov frigate

Russia warns the West by releasing chilling new footage showing the launch of an ‘unstoppable’ Zircon [Tsirkon] nuclear-capable Mach 9 hypersonic missile from the Admiral Gorshkov frigate

China's President Xi Jinping believes Taiwan is a renegade province that must be brought under Beijing's control

China’s President Xi Jinping believes Taiwan is a renegade province that must be brought under Beijing’s control

Chinese troops from the People's Liberation Army are seen patrolling with the Chinese flag on an exercise

Chinese troops from the People’s Liberation Army are seen patrolling with the Chinese flag on an exercise

A Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile is launched during what North Korea says is a drill at an unknown location December 18, 2023

A Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile is launched during what North Korea says is a drill at an unknown location December 18, 2023

And as West descends into economic turmoil and Russia continues to cast its iron grip over eastern Europe and the Arctic, Gen. Hodges says China will be watching eagerly from the side-lines.

He said Beijing could launch an attack of its own on Taiwan if it saw that the US and its allies had been unsuccessful in defending Baltic states from a Russian invasion. 

‘If China saw that the United States and its allies were unsuccessful against a Russian invasion, that we lost – and the losses that we would have sustained would have been enormous – then I think Beijing will not feel restrained to do what they want,’ Gen. Hodges says.

‘If China saw that Russia could create carnage, China would take advantage of this and could launch their own attack on Taiwan for instance,’ Gen. Hodges adds.

Analysts believe Putin intends to destroy Ukraine – which is relying heavily on support from its allies, particularly the US – before setting his sights beyond Ukraine’s western borders, with the Baltic states in particular under threat. 

With his invasion in Ukraine at a stalemate, Putin has also switched his economy onto a war footing, meaning weapons factories are producing arms around the clock.

What’s more, Putin’s allies in Iran and North Korea are also propping his forces up with arms, meaning Russia can build up its defences faster than previously thought.

A series of military officials from across NATO and Europe have warned that this means that Putin could be ready to wage a war against the West in the next two or three years. 

Meanwhile Admiral Rob Bauer, the chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, warned last week that the alliance must brace itself for an all-out war with Russia in the next two decades. This came as secret plans were leaked revealing that Germany is preparing for Putin‘s forces to attack NATO as early as 2025.

Gen. Hodges said for NATO to be able to respond effectively, the military alliance needs to move more troops to the eastern flank along with equipment and arsenal. 

If the alliance does this now, in 2024, it could stop Putin from ever invading one of the countries on NATO’s eastern flank as the despot will know he couldn’t take the West by surprise, Gen. Hodges says. 

Norway’s defence minister Eirik Kristoffersen said last week that Europe has a matter of years – maybe as little as three – to prepare for a war against Russia. 

Kristoffersen pointed out that Moscow has built up its military stockpiles far quicker than expected.

‘Russia has increased production significantly,’ Kristoffersen told NTB.

‘They have also collaborated with countries such as Iran and North Korea, which means that we can get a faster build-up of the Russian defence than what we envisioned just last year,’ he added.

‘So we must use the time well now to strengthen our own defence.’

Norway also shares a border with Russia at Europe’s most northern point and is thus vital to the continent’s defence strategy against Putin’s forces.

Relative peace in Europe was shattered in February 2022 with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and kicked European nations into action. 

Germany, for example, dramatically ramped up its defence spending, while Finland swiftly joined NATO. Sweden is set to follow once its application is approved. 

However, Kristoffersen warns that much of Europe’s military supply is being sunk into Ukraine to support Kyiv’s forces in their fight against the invading Russians.

He points out that the same can be said of Russia, which has sunk vast supplies of military hardware – as well as soldiers – into its war, with limited success.

With Russia having found ways to quickly replenish and expand its supply of weapons, Kristoffersen says it is vital for NATO to continue to support Ukraine – currently Europe’s the first line of defence – ‘for as long as it takes’. 

‘This is a calculated risk,’ he says. ‘If the danger was imminent of an attack by Norway right now, then we could not have given so many weapons. But that is not the case.’

Gen. Hodges echoes this sentiment, and says if we want to ‘avoid this terrible scenario’ of Putin invading a NATO county, ‘we need to help Ukraine win’. 

‘We need to help Ukraine push Russia into the abyss and defeat them,’ Gen. Hodges says, adding that if the West does not increase its spending and supplies to Ukraine, a country on NATO’s eastern flank will be next on Putin’s list. 

Ahead of last week’s NATO meeting in Brussels, NATO Military Committee Admiral Rob Bauer urged countries to ensure they are prepared conflict.

‘We need public and private actors to change their mindset for an era in which everything was plannable, foreseeable, controllable and focused on efficiency to an era in which anything can happen at any time. An era in which we need to expect the unexpected,’ he said as he opened the meeting.

‘In order to be fully effective, also in the future, we need a warfighting transformation of NATO,’ Bauer added.

Kristoffersen echoed this comments when asked what this means for Norway and other NATO countries. 

‘Concretely, this means that we must fill NATO’s plans with content and provide the necessary capacities,’ he told the Norwegian press agency. ‘The challenge for NATO now is that there are some gaps here.’

Ukrainian soldiers load tank ammunition to their tank moments before going to the frontline in the direction of Bakhmut, where clashes between Russia and Ukraine continue to take place, in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on January 23

Ukrainian soldiers load tank ammunition to their tank moments before going to the frontline in the direction of Bakhmut, where clashes between Russia and Ukraine continue to take place, in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine on January 23

Ukrainian servicemen dressed in Russian uniforms attend anti-sabotage mock drills at the border with Belarus, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Chernihiv region

Ukrainian servicemen dressed in Russian uniforms attend anti-sabotage mock drills at the border with Belarus, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Chernihiv region

A Ukrainian serviceman attends an anti-sabotage mock drills at the border with Belarus, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Chernihiv region, Ukraine

A Ukrainian serviceman attends an anti-sabotage mock drills at the border with Belarus, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in Chernihiv region, Ukraine

A Leopard 2 tank is seen in action during a visit of German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius at the Bundeswehr tank battalion 203 at the Field Marshal Rommel Barracks in Augustdorf, Germany

A Leopard 2 tank is seen in action during a visit of German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius at the Bundeswehr tank battalion 203 at the Field Marshal Rommel Barracks in Augustdorf, Germany

Specifically, he warned that air defence and long-range weapons are lacking.

‘More investment must be made in air defence,’ he said. ‘It also means that we have to have more in stock, both when it comes to ammunition and spare parts.’

He also agreed with his Swedish counterpart, Commander-in-Chief Mikael Bydén, who recently called on all Swedes to prepare for war.

‘What the Norwegian population should think about is their own preparedness, which was actually what Bydén was also talking about. We recommend everyone to have three days (worth of supplies at home) to manage themselves.

‘And we also recommend increasing it if you are very vulnerable,’ he added.

That urgency for governments and civilians to prepare for war has since crossed over the Channel to Britain. 

On Wednesday, General Sir Patrick Sanders, the head of the UK’s army, said Britain should ‘train and equip’ a ‘citizen army’ to ready the country for a potential land war. 

But Sanders, the outgoing Chief of the General Staff (CGS), said even that would be ‘not enough’ as he pointed to allies in eastern and northern Europe ‘laying the foundations for national mobilisation’.

The military top brass said increasing Army numbers in preparation for a potential conflict would need to be a ‘whole-of-nation undertaking’, meaning that men and women across the UK should be ready for a call-up to the armed forces. 

It comes after Defence Secretary Grant Shapps in a speech last week said the world is ‘moving from a post-war to pre-war world’ and the UK must ensure its ‘entire defence ecosystem is ready’ to defend its homeland.

But Downing Street ruled out any move towards a conscription model, saying that Army service would remain voluntary. 

Sir Patrick said on Wednesday Britain could not rely on its navy and air power, arguing ‘we must be able to credibly fight and win wars on land’.

He said: ‘We need an Army designed to expand rapidly to enable the first echelon, resource the second echelon and train and equip the citizen army that must follow.

‘Within the next three years, it must be credible to talk of a British Army of 120,000, folding in our reserve and strategic reserve. But this is not enough.

‘Our friends in eastern and northern Europe, who feel the proximity of the Russian threat more acutely, are already acting prudently, laying the foundations for national mobilisation.

‘As the chairman of the NATO military committee warned just last week, and as the Swedish government has done, preparing Sweden for entry to NATO, taking preparatory steps to enable placing our societies on a war footing when needed are now not merely desirable but essential.

‘We will not be immune and as the pre-war generation we must similarly prepare – and that is a whole-of-nation undertaking.

‘Ukraine brutally illustrates that regular armies start wars; citizen armies win them.’

He also made a pitch for more backing for the Army, saying those serving ‘rightly want the equipment that enables them to deliver lethal capability’.

Last week, a former chief of the general staff of the British Army said the UK risks a repeat of the 1930s unless more is invested in its armed forces.

General Lord Dannatt hit out at the shrinking size of the army, which he said has fallen from 102,000 in 2006 to 74,000 today and is still ‘falling fast’.

He drew parallels with the 1930s when the ‘woeful’ state of the UK’s armed forces failed to deter Adolf Hitler, saying there is ‘a serious danger of history repeating itself’.

It comes as NATO this week mobilised 90,000 troops in its largest military manoeuvre since the Cold War, with the war games aimed at deterring Putin from targeting a member country. 

The alliance announced the exercise would begin this week, with the months of drills aimed at showing the alliance can defend all of its territory up to its border with Russia. 

The exercises – dubbed ‘Steadfast Defender’ – will run until late May and involve units from all 31 NATO member countries plus candidate-member Sweden, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, US General Christopher Cavoli, said.

The exercises will involve 90,000 troops rehearsing how U.S. soldiers could reinforce European allies in countries bordering Russia and on the alliance’s eastern flank if a conflict were to flare up with a ‘near-peer’ adversary. 

The wargames are meant as a fresh show of strength from NATO and its commitment to defend all allied nations from attack.

‘The Alliance will demonstrate its ability to reinforce the Euro-Atlantic area by a transatlantic movement of forces from North America,’ Cavoli told reporters in Brussels after a two-day meeting of national chiefs of defence last week. 

The UK is sending 20,000 troops with the Royal Navy’s two new aircraft carriers, eight warships, as well as the RAF’s F-35 lightning attack aircraft, which will practice flying in imitated conflict scenarios.

In response, Russia said the NATO exercises mark an ‘irrevocable return’ of the alliance to Cold War Schemes. 

‘These exercises are another element of the hybrid war unleashed by the West against Russia,’ Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushk said on Sunday. 

‘An exercise of this scale… marks the final and irrevocable return of NATO to the Cold War schemes, when the military planning process, resources and infrastructure are being prepared for confrontation with Russia.’

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