New York Mets – USMAIL24.COM https://usmail24.com News Portal from USA Fri, 15 Mar 2024 15:45:48 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.4.4 https://usmail24.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/Untitled-design-1-100x100.png New York Mets – USMAIL24.COM https://usmail24.com 32 32 195427244 2024 MLB ‘Wild-Card Era’ Franchise Rankings: Rangers break into top 10, Cubs fall out https://usmail24.com/mlb-franchise-rankings-wild-card-era/ https://usmail24.com/mlb-franchise-rankings-wild-card-era/#respond Fri, 15 Mar 2024 15:45:48 +0000 https://usmail24.com/mlb-franchise-rankings-wild-card-era/

As Jonah Heim squeezed the final strike of the 2023 postseason and Josh Sborz spiked his mitt on the mound to celebrate the Texas Rangers’ first World Series title, a thought crossed my mind: How will this change the franchise rankings? See, the Wild-Card Era (1995 to present) franchise rankings are not a creation of […]

The post 2024 MLB ‘Wild-Card Era’ Franchise Rankings: Rangers break into top 10, Cubs fall out appeared first on USMAIL24.COM.

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As Jonah Heim squeezed the final strike of the 2023 postseason and Josh Sborz spiked his mitt on the mound to celebrate the Texas Rangers’ first World Series title, a thought crossed my mind: How will this change the franchise rankings?

See, the Wild-Card Era (1995 to present) franchise rankings are not a creation of my fallible mind. They are borne from a tested, trusted, completely objective, never-been-questioned, all-math, no-bias formula borrowed from football writer Bob Sturm and tweaked to fit baseball’s postseason structure.

Winning the World Series (WS): 9 points
Losing in the World Series (WSL): 6 points
Losing in the Championship Series (CS): 3 points
Losing in Division Series (DS): 2 points
Losing in Wild Card (WC): 1 point

As of last year, the scoring system also incentivizes division titles (+1 point) and penalizes prolonged losing cycles, docking teams (-1 point) each time they lose at least 90 games in consecutive seasons.

Tally the point totals for the past 29 seasons, from 1995 to 2023, and the result is the franchise rankings as listed below — along with each team’s point totals from the past decade, and average points per season. Tiebreakers are World Series wins, then World Series losses, then Championship Series appearances, then Division Series appearances, then division titles.


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The Pirates’ 76-86 season in 2023 didn’t dig their hole deeper, but it didn’t get them out of it, either. Since winning the 1979 World Series, they have reached the postseason six times — three-year runs from 1990-92 and 2013-15. The team is hoping its next core will author another such run. After signing Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller to extensions, the Pirates need continued progression from young big leaguers — Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinki, Henry Davis — and top prospects Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Termarr Johnson.

Total playoff years: 13DS, 14WC, 15WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

8

Last decade: 1 point (MLB rank: t-26th)

Average: -.14 points per season

The Royals bottomed out at 106 losses last season, tying the 2005 Royals for most losses in franchise history, and fell to 29th in this year’s franchise ranking as they were vaulted by the Orioles. After seven consecutive losing seasons, the Royals clearly are trying to turn a corner now. This winter, they guaranteed Bobby Witt Jr. $288.7 million, filled out their bench and pitching staff with free agents, and unveiled plans for a proposed downtown Kansas City ballpark. This fall marks a decade since the Royals ended their 29-year playoff drought and reached the World Series — then won it a year later. It remains the case that no team has made the playoffs fewer times in the Wild-Card Era than the Royals.

Total playoff years: 14WSL, 15WS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

9

Last decade: 14 points (MLB rank: t-10th)

Average: .24 points per season

With the Detroit Lions defeating the Los Angeles Rams in January for their first playoff win since 1992, the Reds now own the longest active streak of not advancing in the playoffs among the four major US men’s sports leagues. Cincinnati swept the Dodgers in the 1995 NLDS, then were swept by the Braves in the NLCS, and they haven’t advanced in any of their four playoff seasons since. The current Reds core has a chance to remove themselves from that trivia answer. The lineup has several potential stars and only one projected starter over the age of 28.

Total playoff years: 95CS, 10DS, 12DS, 13WC, 20WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

3

Last decade: -2 points (MLB rank: 30th)

The Orioles jumped two spots in this ranking by winning 101 games and the AL East last year, even if their playoff run fizzled fast. Adley Rutschman was AL Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2022, Gunnar Henderson won the award in 2023, and now top prospect Jackson Holliday is one of the favorites to win in 2024. The Orioles still have the best farm system in baseball, according to The Athletic’s Keith Law, even after trading top-100 prospect Joey Ortiz and former top-100 prospect DL Hall to Milwaukee for former Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes.

Total playoff years: 96CS, 97CS, 12DS, 14CS, 16WC, 23DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

8

Last decade: 7 points (MLB rank: t-19th)

The Blue Jays are one of a few teams toward the bottom of this list that would fare better if this exercise included the entire 1990s instead of starting in 1995. Toronto won back-to-back World Series titles in 1992 and 1993, but didn’t return to the playoffs for another 21 years. Though the Blue Jays have been a playoff team five times in the past nine seasons, including 2023, they’ve been swept in the Wild-Card Series in their last three tries. Even after failing to land a premier free agent this offseason, the Blue Jays have the bats, gloves and arms to be a division winner in 2024 — but so do three other teams in the AL East.

Total playoff years: 15CS, 16CS, 20WC, 22WC, 23WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

0

Last decade: 10 points (MLB rank: 15th)

The Rockies stayed in the same spot in the franchise rankings but were deducted a point for having back-to-back 90-loss seasons. They chased 94 losses in 2022 with 103 in 2023 — their first triple-digit loss total in franchise history. Todd Helton is a Hall of Famer, bringing back memories of the Rockies’ magical run to the 2007 World Series. The other bit of good news is that Nolan Jones could be a certified star in Colorado. But this doesn’t look like it’ll be the Rockies’ year to win their first division title. FanGraphs has their current playoff odds at 0.1 percent; their odds of winning the NL West, however, are 0.0 percent.

Total playoff years: 95DS, 07WSL, 09DS, 17WC, 18DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

3

Last decade: 1 point (MLB rank: t-26th)

The Brewers won their division last season yet still have the same points total. What gives? Well, time for a mea culpa. In auditing and updating the franchise rankings spreadsheet last month, I discovered an error. From 2001 to 2004, the Brewers lost 94, 106, 94 and 94 games, respectively, so they should have been deducted three points. I had only deducted one. To Brewers fans: I regret the error, just as the Brewers surely regret that era. As The Athletic’s Tyler Kepner wrote recently, Milwaukee has not finished last in their division since 2004. The Brewers have never won a World Series and have only one pennant (1982), but they’re reliably solid in a small market. They are now without Corbin Burnes, but they still have plenty of talent on the roster, plus Law’s No. 2 farm system.

Total playoff years: 08DS, 11CS, 18CS, 19WC, 20WC, 21DS, 23WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

3

Last decade: 11 points (MLB rank: 14th)

The Mariners had the pieces to be a playoff team again last season, having already exorcized demons in 2023 to end a two-decade postseason drought. But after getting hot in the second half Seattle stumbled in September and was eliminated from the playoffs with one game left in the season. On paper, they have one of the league’s best pitching staffs for 2024. The lineup still features Julio Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh and J.P. Crawford, but it has been overhauled with the additions of a new Mitch (Garver), an old Mitch (Haniger), Luke Raley and Jorge Polanco in hopes of getting more runs and fewer whiffs.

Total playoff years: 95CS, 97DS, 00CS, 01CS, 22DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

2

Last decade: 2 points (MLB rank: t-25th)

Never let it be said that this franchise-ranking formula doesn’t punish teams that subject their fans to prolonged down cycles (see also: Brewers blurb). The Nats/Expos lost five points for consecutive 90-loss seasons in the 1990s and 2000s, which they more than made up for with five playoff seasons (and a World Series title) in the 2010s. But their current rebuild has cost them another two points. There were some positive signs last year, like Lane Thomas’ 20-20 season, CJ Abrams’ second half and the law firm of (Josiah) Gray and (MacKenzie) Gore figuring some things out. Next, we await the arrival of top prospects Dylan Crews, James Wood and Brady House.

Total playoff years: 12DS, 14DS, 16DS, 17DS, 19WS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

7

Last decade: 16 points (MLB rank: 8th)

I ended last year’s blurb this way: Unless Luis Arraez bats .400, offense will likely be an issue again in 2023. He flirted with .400 until July! Offense was indeed an issue, one the Marlins addressed by adding Josh Bell and Jake Burger at the trade deadline. Losing Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara to Tommy John surgery was a massive blow softened by the performances of Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez and Braxton Garrett as the Marlins secured a wild-card spot. The Marlins have never won their division, and odds are against that changing in 2024, but they have enough intriguing talent to stay on the fringe of the playoff picture.

Total playoff years: 97WS, 03WS, 20DS, 23WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

5

Last decade: 1 point (MLB rank: t-26th)

Believers in positive regression will find no finer team to back than the 2024 Padres. The club’s late owner, Peter Seidler, spent big in his final years to bring a World Series to San Diego, and so cutting payroll was a priority this offseason. The team is now without one of the best hitters (Juan Soto), starters (Blake Snell) and closers (Josh Hader) in the game. The amount of talent they’ve lost is staggering, underscoring how strange it was to see them come up short in 2023. The lineup still has Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts locked in long-term and Ha-Seong Kim in the fold for another season. The rotation has Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, depth replenished in the Soto trade and now, after A.J. Preller’s Wednesday night blockbuster, another ace-caliber starter: Dylan Cease.

Total playoff years: 96DS, 98WSL, 05DS, 06DS, 20DS, 22CS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

4

Last decade: 2 points (MLB rank: t-24th)

The Tigers took a surprising second place in the AL Central last season, their best finish since 2016, though few confused them for a contender. They saw encouraging signs in 2023 from Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene (when healthy), Kerry Carpenter and several pitchers, especially Tarik Skubal. They’ve added a handful of veterans this offseason — Mark Canha, Gio Urshela, Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda, Shelby Miller and Andrew Chafin — and have a couple top prospects approaching the majors. Better days should be ahead for an organization that hasn’t gained a franchise-ranking point (and, in fact, has lost two) since 2014.

Total playoff years: 06WSL, 11CS, 12WSL, 13CS, 14DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

7

Last decade: 1 point (MLB rank: t-26th)

We begin the way we always do, with an updated win/loss record since the 2007 name change.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays: 645-972 (.399)

Tampa Bay Rays: 1,366-1,125 (.548)

The 2023 Rays raced out to a record-setting start and still managed to win 99 games despite being without star shortstop Wander Franco and losing starters Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs to elbow surgeries. They’ve continued team-building their way this winter — prioritizing young regulars and undervalued platoon players and relievers — and will, in all likelihood, be a handful for the rest of the AL East in 2024.

Total playoff years: 08WSL, 10DS, 11DS, 13DS, 19DS, 20WSL, 21DS, 22WC, 23WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

9

Last decade: 14 points (MLB rank: t-10th)

When writing a year ago “it’s hard to argue the White Sox are better than they were in 2022, and their farm system is one of the weakest in baseball,” I somehow still fell woefully short of predicting their 2023 season. The White Sox self-destructed. They fired Ken Williams and Rick Hahn, lost 101 games and moved seven veterans at the trade deadline. The positive outcome is that the farm system no longer stinks. Law ranked them 10th and noted, “This is about as good as their system has ever looked.” The same cannot be said of their major-league roster. The White Sox have had consecutive 90-loss seasons only once since 1995; they’re projected to add a second this season. They are playing for the future, as evidenced by the Dylan Cease trade Wednesday night.

Total playoff years: 00DS, 05WS, 08DS, 20WC, 21DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

1

Last decade: 3 points (MLB rank: t-22nd)

The Mets haven’t advanced in the playoffs since their pennant-winning 2015 season. After the Mets won 101 games in 2022, the 2023 season saw Edwin Díaz injured, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer traded, and the Mets missing the playoffs by nine games. They still have the highest payroll in the game, but expectations are lower this season. Spring training started with a sour note as Kodai Senga was diagnosed with a right shoulder strain. FanGraphs gives the Braves a 98.6 percent chance of making the playoffs, the Phillies at 59 percent and the Marlins and Mets tied at 29.5 percent.

Total playoff years: 99CS, 00WSL, 06CS, 15WSL, 16WC, 22WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

1

Last decade: 9 points (MLB rank: 16th)

The Twins blew some long-standing narratives to smithereens last fall by ending their 18-game postseason losing streak and sweeping the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series. Then they lost Sonny Gray to free agency, traded Jorge Polanco and cut payroll. They remain the favorite in the AL Central — a division they’ve won three of the past five years — but may be leaving the door open. The Pablo López-led rotation has upside; Jhoan Duran and the bullpen are nasty; and a lineup that starts with Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Max Kepler is likely to do some serious damage.

Total playoff years: 02CS, 03DS, 04DS, 06DS, 09DS, 10DS, 17WC, 19DS, 20WC, 23DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

6

Last decade: 8 points (MLB rank: t-17th)

Before 2022, the A’s hadn’t endured a 100-loss season since 1979. Now they’ve done it two years in a row for the first time since 1964-65. They lost a rankings point for that, dropped one spot in the rankings and will surely continue in that downward direction. Law ranked their farm system last. In 2023, Brent Rooker had an early breakout, Ryan Noda and Zack Gelof emerged and Esteury Ruiz led the AL with 67 steals. But overshadowing all of that in Oakland is the team’s desire to flee to Las Vegas and fans’ attempts to make their objections heard.

Total playoff years: 00DS, 01DS, 02DS, 03DS, 06CS, 12DS, 13DS, 14WC, 18WC, 19WC, 20DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

2

Last decade: 4 points (MLB rank: 21st)

Let’s break down the Wild-Card Era Angels by decade.

1995-99: 387-405 (.489)

2000s: 900-720 (.556)

2010s: 822-798 (.507)

2020s: 176-208 (.458)

Just as I suspected. The Angels are feeling rather fourth place-ish. They haven’t had a winning record since 2015 (their last “of Anaheim” season), haven’t made the playoffs since 2014, and haven’t won a playoff game since 2009. A 2023 recap: Arte Moreno didn’t sell the team, and GM Perry Minasian didn’t trade Shohei Ohtani before the season, didn’t trade him after the season, made a big bet as a trade deadline buyer and lost. Now the Angels trudge toward whatever is next. They have Mike Trout and Law’s 29th-ranked farm system, and no Ohtani.

Total playoff years: 02WS, 04DS, 05CS, 07DS, 08DS, 09CS, 14DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

0

Last decade: 3 points (MLB rank: t-22nd)

The Cubs hold the third tiebreaker (Championship Series appearances) over the Angels but were knocked out of the top 10 this year after being jumped by the Diamondbacks and Rangers. The Cubs ended the 2023 season one game back of a wild-card spot. The Chicago roster, though, hasn’t changed substantially since. They lost Marcus Stroman, brought back Cody Bellinger, traded for Michael Busch and signed Shota Imanaga and Héctor Neris. They also have the No. 5 farm system, per Law. The NL Central race should be compelling; FanGraphs projects all five teams between 77 and 84 wins.

Total playoff years: 98DS, 03CS, 07DS, 08DS, 15CS, 16WS, 17CS, 18WC, 20WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

3

Last decade: 20 points (MLB rank: 4th)

Snakes alive. They climbed three spots in this year’s ranking. They also didn’t exist at the start of the Wild-Card Era, so if we look at their average points per season they rank 10th, ahead of the Phillies by 0.01. Indeed, here come the D-Backs. They may not have won the offseason like the division-rival Dodgers, but they have Corbin Carroll and Zac Gallen and enough talent surrounding them to make noise again in 2024. As for the new arrivals: Eduardo Rodríguez fortifies a rotation that could have used one more starter last fall, Eugenio Suárez gives Arizona more thump at third base, and Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk are mix-and-match platoon options at DH and in the outfield.

Total playoff years: 99DS, 01WS, 02DS, 07CS, 11DS, 17DS, 23WSL

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

1

Last decade: 8 points (MLB rank: t-17th)

The Phillies in the past two years have played in a World Series and come one win short of appearing in another. After flailing for most of the 2010s, they’ve built a formidable core and so far have spent to keep it mostly intact. They let Rhys Hoskins walk in free agency this winter but brought back Aaron Nola and extended Zack Wheeler. This is more or less a run-it-back year for Philadelphia. They have the horses, and they have them healthy for now. But they’ll need to click from the jump if the Phillies are going to win their first division title since 2011.

Total playoff years: 07DS, 08WS, 09WSL, 10CS, 11DS, 22WSL, 23CS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

3

Last decade: 7 points (MLB rank: t-19th)

A World Series title doesn’t guarantee you a top-10 spot in the franchise rankings, but the nine points the Rangers bagged for winning their first ring last fall got them there. It was far from an ideal season for Texas. Jacob deGrom made only six starts before suffering an elbow injury. Nathan Eovaldi and Corey Seager both missed significant time in the regular season. The team fell out of first place and nearly lost their wild-card spot. But Seager, Adolis García, Josh Jung and Evan Carter led the Rangers lineup in October, and the pitching arms of Eovaldi, Jordan Montgomery, José Leclerc and Josh Sborz did the rest. There are reasons to doubt the Rangers in 2024, but they’re about as good as they were last spring.

Total playoff years: 96DS, 98DS, 99DS, 10WSL, 11WSL, 12WC, 15DS, 16DS, 23WS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

2

Last decade: 14 points (MLB rank: t-10th)

The Guardians couldn’t give Tito Francona a storybook finish to his likely Hall of Fame career. They played .500 ball in the first half, were 10 games worse than that in the second half and finished third (or lower) in the AL Central for the first time since 2015. Their overall position on this list is incredibly respectable, especially since they’re the only one of the top 13 teams without a World Series title juicing their numbers. The Guardians have made the playoffs 13 times in the 29 years of the Wild-Card Era, won the division 11 times and captured three pennants. With José Ramírez, a young cast of hitters and a strong pitching staff, the Guardians have a shot at the AL Central crown this season.

Total playoff years: 95WSL, 96DS, 97WSL, 98CS, 99DS, 01DS, 07CS, 13WC, 16WSL, 17DS, 18DS, 20WC, 22DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

1

Last decade: 17 points (MLB rank: t-6th)

Three World Series titles will take you a long way, so the Giants are still sitting pretty here at No. 7 despite not seeing much playoff success since 2014. They backslid from 107 wins in 2021 to 81 in 2022 to 79 in 2023, leading to manager Gabe Kapler’s ouster. This offseason they signed Jordan Hicks, Jorge Soler and Jung Hoo Lee, traded for former Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray, who’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, and waited out the market to land free agent Matt Chapman on a remarkably palatable three-year contract with two opt-outs. The Giants, however, still seem undermanned as they face an uphill climb in a division led by the Dodgers and the defending NL champs in Arizona.

Total playoff years: 97DS, 00DS, 02WSL, 03DS, 10WS, 12WS, 14WS, 16DS, 21DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

1

Last decade: 14 points (MLB rank: t-10th)

Houston has reached the ALCS in seven consecutive seasons, played in four World Series and twice — including 2023 — fallen one win short. They are tied with the Dodgers for most points in the past decade; Houston holds the tiebreaker. They’d be in the top five in this year’s franchise rankings if not for the three points deducted for 90-loss seasons in the early 2010s. For now, they’re well clear of the Giants and Guardians and nipping at the heels of the Red Sox. In 2024, the Astros return almost the same lineup as last season, but with an offensive upgrade at catcher in Yainer Díaz. They’ll have Justin Verlander back in the rotation, once healthy. And they have two top-end closers in Josh Hader and Ryan Pressly.

Total playoff years: 97DS, 98DS, 99DS, 01DS, 04CS, 05WSL, 15DS, 17WS, 18CS, 19WSL, 20CS, 21WSL, 22WS, 23CS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

3

Last decade: 46 points (MLB rank: t-1st)

The long-term organizational momentum the Red Sox built with four World Series titles in the past 20 years has stalled. They’ve finished last in the AL East the past two seasons, with identical 78-84 records, and now they have a new chief baseball officer, Craig Breslow, but not a significantly upgraded roster. The Red Sox have strong left-handed hitters but could use some thunder from the right side at Fenway Park. With free-agent add Lucas Giolito out for the season, Boston needs another starter or two to lead the pitching staff alongside Brayan Bello. There’s still time to start spending, but the Red Sox so far have shown no urgency.

Total playoff years: 95DS, 98DS, 99CS, 03CS, 04WS, 05DS, 07WS, 08CS, 09DS, 13WS, 16DS, 17DS, 18WS, 21CS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

0

Last decade: 19 points (MLB rank: 5th)

This wasn’t necessarily the top headline of the Dodgers’ offseason, but they finally ran down the Red Sox and stole fourth place in the franchise rankings. They are a Death Star. The Dodgers have an 11-year playoff streak going, with 10 division titles in that stretch. If the franchise rankings covered only the past decade, the Dodgers would be tied with the Astros at No. 1. They’ve operated at a 102-win clip in manager Dave Roberts’ eight years in Los Angeles, and all of that was before they added [huge breath] Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, James Paxton and Teoscar Hernández, and re-signed Clayton Kershaw, Jason Heyward and Kiké Hernández. Probably a team to watch in 2024.

Total playoff years: 95DS, 96DS, 04DS, 06DS, 08CS, 09CS, 13CS, 14DS, 15DS, 16CS, 17WSL, 18WSL, 19DS, 20WS, 21CS, 22DS, 23DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

0

Last decade: 46 points (MLB rank: t-1st)

No movement in our top three for 2024, but a couple teams are in striking distance of the Cardinals this season. After three consecutive wild-card exits, St. Louis had a deeply disappointing 2023, finishing 71-91. It was their first losing season since 2007, and their first 90-loss season since 1990. The Cardinals overhauled their pitching staff this winter, bringing in veterans Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Keynan Middleton and Andrew Kittredge. The talent in their lineup is still eye-popping, so with halfway decent pitching and positive regression from a few hitters the Cardinals could be back in 2024.

Total playoff years: 96CS, 00CS, 01DS, 02CS, 04WSL, 05CS, 06WS, 09DS, 11WS, 12CS, 13WSL, 14CS, 15DS, 19CS, 20WC, 21WC, 22WC

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

0

Last decade: 15 points (MLB rank: 9th)

The only one of our top three teams to reach the postseason in 2023, the Braves won the NL East for the sixth consecutive season before bowing out again in the NLDS. They’ve already won a World Series in this competitive window, but it feels like they’ve left a lot on the table. The good news for Braves fans, and bad for most others, is the team’s current core isn’t going anywhere. The Braves have built a behemoth without a top-five payroll, as reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II all have agreed to long-term extensions.

Total playoff years: 95WS, 96WSL, 97CS, 98CS, 99WSL, 00DS, 01CS, 02DS, 03DS, 04DS, 05DS, 10DS, 12WC, 13DS, 18DS, 19DS, 20CS, 21WS, 22DS, 23DS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

2

Last decade: 24 points (MLB rank: 3rd)

The Yankees are still the class of the Wild-Card Era, though they certainly haven’t been baseball’s top franchise recently. The overall body of work is immensely impressive: In the 29 seasons included in this exercise, the Yankees have 24 playoff berths, 15 division titles, seven AL pennants and five World Series titles. (Only one title and pennant, however, in the past two decades.) In 2023, the Yankees narrowly avoided their first losing season since 1992, but their 80 losses still were their most of the Wild-Card Era. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo and Carlos Rodón all missed significant time with injury. Gerrit Cole was the AL Cy Young and also the Yankees’ only reliable starter last season, but now there’s uncertainty regarding his health for 2024. The Yankees will have Judge, Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo across the outfield. They added Marcus Stroman to the rotation. We’ll see if that’s enough.

Total playoff years: 95DS, 96WS, 97DS, 98WS, 99WS, 00WS, 01WSL, 02DS, 03WSL, 04CS, 05DS, 06DS, 07DS, 09WS, 10CS, 11DS, 12CS, 15WC, 17CS, 18DS, 19CS, 20DS, 21WC, 22CS

Consecutive 90-loss seasons

0

Last decade (since 2014): 17 points (MLB rank: t-6th)


Rank

  

Team

  

Total

  

Average

  

Decade

  

1

110

3.79

17

2

81

2.79

24

3

72

2.48

15

4

68

2.34

46

5

66

2.28

19

6

65

2.24

46

7

48

1.66

14

8

48

1.66

17

9

37

1.28

14

10

33

1.14

7

11

30

1.15

8

12

29

1

20

13

29

1

3

14

25

0.86

4

15

22

0.76

8

16

21

0.72

9

17

19

0.66

3

18

19

0.73

14

19

17

0.59

1

20

17

0.59

2

21

16

0.55

1

22

14

0.48

16

23

14

0.48

2

24

14

0.48

11

25

10

0.34

1

26

10

0.34

10

27

9

0.31

7

28

9

0.31

-2

29

7

0.24

14

30

-4

-0.14

1

(Top illustration by Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos by Justin Berl / Getty Images; Rob Tringali / Sportschrome; Matt Dirksen / Getty Images; Brian Blanco / Getty Images) 

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Top 100 MLB prospects 2024: Keith Law’s rankings, with Jackson Holliday at No. 1 https://usmail24.com/top-100-mlb-prospects-2024-keith-law/ https://usmail24.com/top-100-mlb-prospects-2024-keith-law/#respond Tue, 06 Feb 2024 00:41:50 +0000 https://usmail24.com/top-100-mlb-prospects-2024-keith-law/

Welcome to this year’s ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball. I’ve been compiling and writing such rankings for 17 years now, and those of you who’ve read them before will find the format here similar to those from the recent past. My farm reports covering at least 20 prospects in each team’s system, […]

The post Top 100 MLB prospects 2024: Keith Law’s rankings, with Jackson Holliday at No. 1 appeared first on USMAIL24.COM.

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Welcome to this year’s ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball. I’ve been compiling and writing such rankings for 17 years now, and those of you who’ve read them before will find the format here similar to those from the recent past. My farm reports covering at least 20 prospects in each team’s system, and notes on prospects who might appear in the majors this year, or who might be breakout prospects for the 2025 rankings, will appear starting the week of Feb. 12.

This year’s list has more players from the most recent draft than any top-100 I’ve ever done (I think), with 20 percent of the list — that’s 20 players, if you’re struggling to do the math here — on this list being 2023 draftees. That’s a combination of what might be the best draft class of my career since I left the Blue Jays and a high degree of turnover from the 2023 top-100 list. We had a ton of graduations from last year’s list: seven of the top 10, plus 25 more from the rest of the list. And we had a few face-plants, too, including one guy who went from the top 10 last year to completely off the list this year, although, in my defense, he had it coming. Five others fell off the list due to injury or illness that either impacted their long-term outlook or hurt their performance so much that they were simply passed by other, healthy players.

To be eligible for this list, a player must still retain Rookie of the Year eligibility for 2024, and have no experience in NPB/KBO, as those are major leagues and calling, say, Yoshinobu Yamamoto a “prospect” is pretty silly (not to mention it takes up the space I’d rather use on an actual prospect). I also don’t include the international free agents who just signed in January, since in nearly all cases those guys haven’t been scouted by other teams in a year or more.

I tend to favor upside in prospects more than certainty, but there is value in both. A player who is all ceiling and no floor isn’t as valuable, in the trade market now or in considering his expected value in the long term, as one who has a somewhat lower ceiling but a much higher floor. I want players who might be stars, and after that I want players who might be above-average big leaguers — but I also try to keep in mind that many of these prospects won’t reach their ceilings, and to consider what other scenarios exist for their futures.

I use “seasonal age” for players (listed as “Age” on the player bios below), which is their age on July 1, 2024, the midpoint of the calendar. I use the 20-80 scale for tools (or 2-8 — same scale, different dialect), where 50 is average, 60 is plus, 40 is well below average, 80 is Ke’Bryan Hayes’ defense, and 20 is Yasmani Grandal’s foot speed. I try to discuss players’ tools, their frames, their level of athleticism and other physical attributes, as well as their skills, their aptitude, and other mental or intellectual attributes as well. This is comparable to how major-league teams evaluate players, although they will always have the advantage of access to more and better data than those of us on the outside can get. The least I can do is try to reflect how the industry thinks about players, and give you the most accurate possible picture of the prospects in these rankings through both the lens of my own evaluations and those of the people within the industry whom I most trust.

When referring to starters, I acknowledge that that role is still evolving and we don’t have 200-inning guys anymore, with a lot of “five-and-dive” (throw five innings and hit the showers) or twice-through-the-order guys, but I will still talk about league-average starters and sometimes refer to back-end (fourth or fifth) starters or above-average (ace, No. 2, and some No. 3) starters. Bear in mind that there is a range around any projection or prediction for a player — if I say I think someone’s a No. 4 starter, he might have a ceiling as a No. 3 or more, and the floor of a middle reliever or a bulk reliever, where the No. 4 starter projection is the most likely or median outcome I see.

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2023 Ranking: 19

Holliday went from “maybe he’s a first-rounder” in the fall of 2021, his senior year of high school, to “oh my God he’s the best prospect in baseball” by May of 2023, an unbelievable rise — you could say meteoric, but I prefer to avoid such clichés — that’s a testament to both his natural talent and his incredible feel for the game. He played at all four full-season levels of the minors in 2023, dominating the first three before a solid stint at Triple-A Norfolk to end the year, with a composite line of .323/.442/.499 on the season and 101 walks against 118 strikeouts. He has exceptional hand-eye coordination, so even when he’s fooled by a pitch he often manages to make contact with it, even hard contact. I do think major-league pitchers will force him to shorten up his swing sometimes, as he nearly always swings full bore and no one has given him any reason to do otherwise. He’s a 50/55 runner, likely to end up average once he fills out, a process that will begin as soon as he starts shaving every day. Holliday is a natural shortstop whose position wouldn’t be in doubt if the Orioles didn’t already have an incumbent there — and Holliday is a better defender than Gunnar Henderson at short — but he’s moved around the infield a little and could come up at third or second if Baltimore doesn’t want to dislodge the AL Rookie of the Year. He reminds me in several ways of Troy Tulowitzki, but has the advantage of the left-handed bat and has a better feel for the strike zone. I think he’ll hit .280-.300 with strong walk rates and 25+ homers a year to go with above-average defense at shortstop, and that’s a profile that can win an MVP award.

2023 Ranking: 3

Chourio came into the year as my No. 3 prospect, behind the two eventual Rookie of the Year winners, but then got off to a slow start when the Brewers started him in Double-A Biloxi despite just 31 games in High A and six in Double A the year before. Whether he was pressing or just adjusting to the tougher level, when the sun rose on June 1, Chourio was hitting .254/.308/.418 and had punched out in a quarter of his plate appearances. The rest of the season, he hit .297/.353/.492 with a 15 percent strikeout rate and spent the final week with Triple-A Nashville. That week went pretty well, as Chourio put 21 balls in play, eight of them with exit velocities of 100 mph or better, peaking at 107.2 mph, and just five below 91 mph. Chourio still finished fifth in the Double-A Southern League in steals and tied for fourth in homers, and has barely begun to fill out physically, getting to that power and hard contact with strong wrists and incredible bat speed. It’s a simple swing with just enough loft in that follow-through for line-drive power, and he projects to hit for high averages as well. He’s a plus runner and at least a 60 defender in center already, likely to end up more. You can make a case for him over Holliday, as Chourio also plays a position up the middle, offers plus defense, has more speed, and is overall a twitchier, more athletic player. I think Holliday has the higher floor, between his position and better feel right now for the strike zone, but, as with the top-two prospects Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll last year, I think both of these guys are superstars.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Salas signed last January when he was 16, was catching Joe Musgrove in a simulated game in spring training in March. He debuted in Low A on May 30, just two days before he turned 17, which, among other things, makes him the first player I’ve ever scouted who was younger than my daughter is. (This is extremely important information, to me, at least.) Salas went off in 48 games in the California League, hitting .267/.350/.487, so the Padres promoted him to High A for nine games, then to Double A to be with the bulk of their prospects for a playoff push for nine more games, after which a minor knee injury ended his season. Salas was born in Kissimmee, Fla., and is the younger brother of Twins farmhand Jose Salas, but spent parts of his childhood in the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, so he’s bilingual and very advanced for his age on both sides of the ball. He’s a smooth catcher who has game-calling experience and is comfortable catching premium velocity already, with a plus arm and quick release, as well. At the plate, he’s surprisingly short to the ball for a 6-foot-2 hitter with easy power already. He has enough pitch recognition that he has an idea of when to reach back a little for a harder but longer swing. Catching’s tough on the body and mind, with prospects behind the dish essentially doing a double major, learning all of the skills for a backstop (receiving, blocking, framing, throwing, game-calling, being nice to umps) while also developing as a hitter. Salas is as advanced at the first major, being a catcher, as any 17 year old I can remember seeing, and he seems to be ready to at least survive in Double A as a hitter already. It’s a potential bat that would play at first base attached to a catcher who might be plus in every meaningful aspect of the position. If he keeps hitting, Krylon might put him in their commercials.

2023 Ranking: 9

Lawlar was the sixth pick in the 2021 draft out of a Dallas high school, but injured his shoulder on a swing — the same injury that befell Corbin Carroll before him and Druw Jones afterward, so I hope Tommy Troy has insurance — and played just two games after signing. Even without a real first summer, he’s raced up to the majors in two seasons, reaching Triple A just a few weeks after he turned 21. He’s got great instincts on both sides of the ball and has now improved his footwork and his throwing to the point where he might be a 55 defender at short, and no worse than average. On offense, he’ll show plus bat speed and should get to 15-20 homer power at his peak, although the 20 homers he hit last year were inflated by playing in two insane hitters’ parks in Amarillo and Reno. When he’s right, he’s very short to the ball but still makes solid contact because of that bat speed and wrist strength, with a swing path that will produce more low line drives than big flies. He’s an easy plus runner who’s a real base-stealing threat, with an 87 percent success rate in the minors. My one concern is that he can come out of his swing at times, lunging and over-rotating to try to force power that isn’t there, which can lead to whiffs or just poor contact, like topping the ball right into the ground. As long as he stays back and sticks to what’s worked so well for him, he should be a star somewhere on the infield, even if he moves off short for a superior defender.

2023 Ranking: 99

Acquired by the Rays in a trade that Guardians fans would prefer I never mention again, Caminero started 2023 in High A and finished it in the majors while getting regular at bats for a playoff team — and smoking the ball, too. Caminero’s a tremendous hitter, combining feel for the barrel, balance, and brute strength to produce a ton of hard contact, peaking at 112 mph in his brief stint in the majors. His swing is simple but still powerful between that upper body strength and his rapid hand acceleration, while he doesn’t chase much and doesn’t miss many pitches in the zone, with some vulnerability to breaking stuff down and away that’s typical for a lot of young hitters. Caminero has primarily played third base in the minors and worked himself into an average glove there, with some experience at short, second, and even first, although that last position shouldn’t be necessary given how much progress he’s made at the hot corner. He hit 31 homers in total last year in 117 games across three levels, and this kind of hard-contact skill and feel to hit should produce that kind of 30+ homer power in the majors too, with .300ish averages in the best outcomes, enough for him to be the impact bat the Rays have needed for ages.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Few draft players have had debuts as good as Langford’s, as he played at four levels last season, hitting .360/.480/.677 in 200 professional PA, and ended the year in Triple A, where he reached base 14 times in 26 trips to the plate. Langford was my preseason No. 1 prospect for the 2023 draft and was No. 2 on draft day after a ruptured testicle took him out for about two weeks in the spring, preventing him from answering scouts’ questions about his outfield defense. He’s an electric offensive player, a 70 runner underway who boasts a smooth, powerful right-handed swing where he stays very steady through contact, rotating his hips on time to transfer his weight without becoming unbalanced, putting the ball in the air with a lot of juice. He’s fast enough for center but played left in Florida, in part because they had a plus defender in center but more because Langford has yet to show even solid instincts in the outfield. That said, if what he did in a modest sample in pro ball is any indication, he could play sixth base or top field or anywhere else and still be an impact player, because he looks like he is really going to hit and put 25-30 balls in the seats, too.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Crews was already on scouts’ radar as a high school junior for his advanced hit tool and potential for power, but a rough start to his senior year followed by a global pandemic that ended the 2020 season and cut the draft short. Well, he ended up at LSU, and things worked out just fine, as he mashed for three years as a Tiger and ended up the second pick in the 2023 draft. Crews can really hit, going .426/.567/.713 last spring for LSU, then hitting .355/.423/.645 in 14 games in Low A after he signed, although an aggressive two-level promotion to Double A finally slowed him down. His swing is really simple and when he’s on time, it’s short and direct and the contact is loud. He’s an average to a tick above-average runner, but so far he’s looked very good in centerfield thanks to great reads, although he may end up pushed to a corner by a superior defender once he’s in the majors. When he was playing with Double-A Harrisburg, pitchers were able to mess with his timing by changing speeds, even getting him to cut through some fastballs in the upper half of the zone, so there are some adjustments for him to make before he races to the majors. It might slow his progress by a few weeks, but his ceiling as a hitter who’s among the league leaders in all three triple-slash categories while playing up the middle or playing plus defense in a corner is still there.

2023 Ranking: 11

Mayer was the fourth pick in the 2021 draft and No. 1 on my final draft board that year. His 2023 season didn’t go according to plan, as Boston’s top prospect hurt his shoulder in May, eventually going on the injured list for the impingement in early August, ending his season. When healthy, Mayer has a beautiful left-handed swing and projects to plus power in his peak years, with plenty of loft in his finish to put the ball over the fence, but he hasn’t been healthy all that often in his two full years in the minors, dealing with some wrist soreness in 2022, as well. He’s got the athleticism and first-step movement to be a plus defender at short, showing the ability to make difficult or distant plays, and needs to work more on consistency to become a 60 or better in the field. He’s a below-average runner and not likely to be a base-stealing threat in the majors. Mayer’s shoulder was already hurt when he got to Double A last year, so his dismal line there (.189/.254/.355, 26 percent K rate) is probably just noise. He needs a full season on the field now to show the huge upside that made him Boston’s first pick in 2021.

2023 Ranking: 53

Carter’s ascent to the majors over the last two years rivals that of anyone other than perhaps Junior Caminero’s, and in some ways is more stunning given that Carter started the 2022 season with just 32 games played beyond high school. The Rangers’ second-round pick in 2020, much-maligned in these quarters as area scouts questioned his contact skills in high school, Carter has shown outstanding plate discipline at every level, including the majors, and the ability to manage an at bat like a major-league veteran. He’s a plus defender and runner who might end up with a 6 hit tool as well, which would make him an All-Star if so. There are some beige flags here; he’s never hit left-handed pitching in the minors or majors, his swing probably isn’t going to produce more than average pull power, and he’s shown more propensity to chase now that he’s facing better quality pitching. Brandon Nimmo didn’t hit lefties much at all until he was 25 or 26, and he’s already produced 21 WAR and made himself a ton of money, so the platoon split issue is far from fatal. Carter’s got a very high floor — the worst-case scenario would appear to be that he’s a high-average/OBP platoon outfielder with plus defense — with the ceiling of a star if he hits southpaws better and gets toward 20-ish homers a year.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Skenes was the first pick in last year’s draft, coming off a spring where he was nearly unhittable as the Friday night starter for the eventual national champion LSU Tigers, punching out 45 percent of batters he faced and pitching regularly at 96-102 mph with a wipeout slider. He’s a pitcher of unusual size, already 6-6 and probably 260 lbs or so, and hides the ball extremely well behind his body thanks to a compact arm action, allowing him to get away with some iffy fastball command and below-average life on the pitch. He offers ace ceiling, with size and arm strength you can’t teach, but has several adjustments to make to get there, including ramping up use of a changeup he never bothered to use in college (why would he do hitters the favor) and working on a two-seamer so hitters don’t cheat and sit on the straight four-seamer instead. His command is probably a 45 or so, although he throws the fastball for strikes enough that I’d be surprised if walks were an issue before he reaches Triple A, where they use the automated ball-strike system (ABS). He’ll need to take a few more steps forward to give the Pirates a real top-of-the-rotation solution, but Pirates fans can take heart in Skenes’ track record of improvements, as he went from a two-way player with an above-average fastball at Air Force in 2022 to the dominant starter we saw last spring at LSU. Look for him to reach Pittsburgh at some point this summer.

2023 Ranking: 12

The top left-handed pitching prospect in baseball, Harrison had a rough go in his Triple-A debut last year, walking 16.3 percent of hitters — at least some of which was likely attributable to the automated ball-strike system that’s used in some Triple-A games — and missing a month with a hamstring injury, but he showed much better in his seven major-league starts, including throwing a lot more strikes than expected. Harrison comes from a low three-quarters arm slot that makes him very tough on left-handed hitters, working 92-97 mph with hard running life, along with a hard slurve that mostly breaks downward and a changeup that’s potentially plus and has good separation from the fastball. It’s not an easy delivery to repeat, so his command will probably always be a question, but the improved control in the majors was a great sign, and his sudden trouble with the longball (eight homers allowed in 34 2/3 major-league innings, four of them in a single start) seems fluky with three coming from left-handed batters. Everyone wants to make pitchers who throw like Harrison into Chris Sale, but I think that’s unfair to both guys; the White Sox gave Sale a new grip that turned his slider into a 70, while Harrison may end up relying much more on the fastball/changeup and saving his breaker for left-on-left crime. Regardless of how he puts it together, he looks like a No. 2 starter and has that ace upside if the command takes a leap or he can tighten up the slurve.

2023 Ranking: 45

Quero spent the entire 2023 season in Double A at age 20, the youngest catcher to get even 300 PA at either of the top two levels of the minors. He showed big progress across the board, including a massive improvement in his conditioning from 2022 to 2023. He’s in way better shape now to handle a full season of work behind the plate, so while he always had the hands and arm for the position, he’s a lot more consistent and could end up a 60 defender there all around. At the plate, he’s got great feel for the barrel, with a swing that’s short to the ball and long through contact, with future 20-homer seasons a possibility when he’s in his mid-20s. He can swing too hard at times but gets away with it because he has such good barrel control within the zone. He did have a reverse platoon split last year, struggling especially when lefties threw him changeups, while right-handers would attack him with spin down and away that he’s still learning to lay off. Other than running, he’s got the potential for above-average or better tools across the board, and he’s already advanced as a catcher for his age. The Brewers don’t need a catcher now, just like they don’t need a center fielder, but they have a future two-way star here in Quero.

2023 Ranking: 22

This is Rocchio’s fourth year on my top-100, and I presume his final one, as he debuted in the majors last year and the Guardians appear to have cleared the path for him to be their opening-day shortstop. Rocchio’s outstanding feel for the game was evident even when he signed at 16, while he’s developed into a plus defender at shortstop and improved his pitch recognition and swing decisions as he’s moved up the chain. He’s a true switch-hitter who hits from both sides of the plate, and he’s become extremely difficult to strike out, ranking in the top 4 percent of all full-season players (minimum 400 PA) last year in contact rate. He’s shown power in the past, with 33 homers in 2021-22 combined, and hits the ball hard for a smaller hitter, with top-end exit velocities higher than Alex Bregman’s were at ages 22-23, although I’d project a more conservative 15-18 homers a year for Rocchio. It’s plus defense, potentially elite plate discipline, quality contact already, and a track record of consistent improvements. Cleveland’s trade of Francisco Lindor should hurt a bit less now that his successor is here.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Clark could have been the first pick in many drafts, but the 2023 draft was loaded at the top, so Clark ended up going third to the Tigers. He’s an actual five-tool prospect, by which I mean he is or projects to be above-average or better in all five tools — hit, power, run, field, throw — not just a great prospect who gets called “five tool” because it sounds good. He’s a 70 runner who plays easy plus defense in center with a strong enough arm for right, and he’s got a pretty yet powerful left-handed swing that gets to plus power already. He starts with a wide base at the plate with just enough room left for a small step forward without much weight transfer, then starts his hands extremely quickly to generate that plus power. The only question about his tools is how good a hitter he is today, as he didn’t face any decent pitching among Indiana high schools; his pro debut included a lot of contact even when he was clearly gassed playing in Low A in September. He’s already strong for his age and size and doesn’t offer a ton of projection, but also doesn’t need it to profile as an above-average regular or better — a 30/30 guy who plays plus defense in center and at least has OBPs in the upper .300s.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Jenkins was the fifth pick last year and part of the quintet of prospects who could have gone first overall in a typical draft, so the Twins picked the right year to select fifth in the draft. Jenkins earns a lot of comparisons to Larry Walker for his size, athleticism, and sweet left-handed swing, leading to hopes he can be another power-hitting right fielder with strong on-base skills and some speed as well. It’s about as textbook a swing as you’ll see, with elite bat speed and great hip rotation for hard contact and what should end up as 25-30 homer power, if not more. He had zero issues in pro ball with contact or plate discipline, although he didn’t show much of the power, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he took a year or two to grow into that part of his game. He played center in every game when he played the field except for one in right, but given his size I think he’s going to end up in a corner, just like his namesake. It may not be a straight line to stardom but I believe Jenkins’ swing and bat speed will carry him for now while we wait for the power to arrive.

2023 Ranking: 46

Winn reached the majors last year at age 21 and just barely still qualifies for this list — one more day on the roster or nine more at bats would have cost him his ROY eligibility for 2024. He’s an elite defender at short with an 80 arm, registering 100.5 mph on a throw at the 2022 Futures Game that set a new Statcast record for velocity for a throw by any infielder. He has outstanding plate discipline for his age, across all dimensions of that term — his pitch selection, his pitch type recognition, and his ball/strike recognition are all above-average or better for someone who’s been young for every level he’s played at in pro ball. He’s also a 70 runner with an 88.4 percent success rate on 104 stolen base attempts in the minors. And he has outstanding bat speed on top of that, rarely missing even plus fastballs, although in his case his bat may be in and out of the zone too quickly for it to translate as plus power or even high exit velocities. That adds up to a pretty high floor: plus defense, high contact rates, solid to plus on-base percentages, added value on the bases, and you hope a little power. Unless his approach completely collapses in the majors, which I have a hard time imagining, he’ll be at least an average regular at short for a long time. The Cards appear to have cleared the way for him to win the job out of spring training, and I don’t think there’s any real benefit to sending him back to Triple A at this point anyway. Just let his defense carry him while he adjusts to big-league pitching and enjoy the show.

2023 Ranking: 49

Marte has always hit even though he’s been young for the level everywhere he’s played, reaching the majors last year at age 21 and hitting .316/.366/.456 in his cup of coffee with just a 20.3 percent strikeout rate and a peak exit velocity over 115 mph. Acquired in the big swap that sent Luis Castillo to Seattle for four players, Marte had fallen out of favor with the Mariners because he’d gotten so big there was — and still is — some question over whether he’ll stay on the dirt, and I think there is no real shot for him to stay at shortstop. To his credit, he’s maintained some of his athleticism and speed even as he’s filled out so quickly, and while he probably won’t be a rangy third baseman he should make all of the necessary plays to be at least average there. His bat isn’t a big question, as he has great instincts at the plate and uses the whole field well, with power from his pull side all the way over to right-center. Playing half his games in Cincinnati should get him to 20-25 homers a year, if not more. His ultimate offensive ceiling depends on his approach, which right now is appropriately aggressive — he doesn’t whiff much or walk much, but chases a little too often right now to project as a star at his peak, with more of a .280/.330/.500 sort of ceiling. That’s a very good regular who makes some All-Star teams, with the chance to become something more if he makes better swing decisions even independent of just walking more. He’s ready for a major-league job right now, and the Reds have one to give him at third; if he wins it, he’s a contender for Rookie of the Year.

2023 Ranking: 26

Crow-Armstrong hadn’t played above A-ball coming into 2023, but hit a combined .283/.365/.511 between Double A and Triple A to reach the majors in September, where then Cubs manager David Ross played him only when both of Earth’s moons were in Sagittarius, possibly contributing to the fact that Crow-Armstrong still has yet to get his first major-league hit. He’ll get that and more this year, as he should spend the season as the Cubs’ center fielder, providing plus defense and I hope some strong on-base skills. Crow-Armstrong might be a 70 defender in center and is certainly plus, enough to give him a high floor as a fourth outfielder in the unlikely event that his bat doesn’t pan out. One reason that might happen is that he’s come into more power than anticipated, and it’s affected his approach, as he sells out to get to that power sometimes, often cutting across the ball and slicing it to left field. He’s strong enough to hit 20 homers, as he did last year in the minors, and a good enough hitter overall to hit .300+, but he’s probably not going to be able to do both with his swing and his size. He’s better served going for contact and letting some power come naturally, in the 10-12 homer a year range, and perhaps in doing so he’ll see his walk rate and thus his OBP creep back up. After a tough, if very brief, stint in the majors, Crow-Armstrong has a little more reason to find that offensive middle ground, and added to the value he’ll provide on defense he could be a 5 WAR player for several years through his peak.

2023 Ranking: 16

Wood has turned out to be the jewel in the trade that sent Juan Soto to San Diego. Wood has shown several elite tools already and reached Double A last year at age 20, but also carries some real risks related primarily to the strike zone. Wood is an outstanding athlete with 70 speed and 80 raw power, and if anything he’s improved his conditioning in pro ball to get even more out of his physical gifts. He can play plus defense in center and I’ve gotten occasional run times from him that grade out at 80. He started last year in High-A Wilmington, generally a tough place for power, and hit .293/.392/.580; his eight homers in 42 games ended up second on the team for the season. When the Nats bumped him to Double-A Harrisburg, which is a better home run park, the power stayed but the sheer size of his strike zone and some of his pitch recognition both led to a big jump in his strikeout rate, from 27 percent to 34 percent, with fastballs up and sliders in the lower third both becoming issues for him. He’s every bit of 6-6, maybe even 6-7 at this point, and between his height and how hard he swings, he’s going to have some whiff; the challenge for him and the Nats will be cutting it down to a manageable level so he hits enough to get to that 40-homer power and isn’t an OBP liability. My guess is there isn’t much middle ground here; the ceiling is that middle-of-the-order offense in a plus right fielder or 50/55 centerfielder, while the floor is another guy who can’t cut his K rate below 30 percent and bounces around for years as teams hope to catch lightning in a tall bottle.

2023 Ranking: Sleeper

The Orioles refused to participate in the annual Latin American free-agent donnybrook for more than a decade, which continues to hurt their farm system even now that they’ve jumped back in because of the lag between when those players sign (typically at age 16) and when they emerge as prospects. Basallo was one of their first big signings in that market, earning a $1.3 million bonus in 2021. He debuted in full-season ball this year, hitting so well in Low A and then High A that he even got a four-game cup of coffee with Double-A Bowie to finish the season. Basallo turned 19 in August and his bat is already very advanced, with a very short but powerful swing and what appears to be very good pitch recognition. While his offense is ahead of his defense, he does project as a catcher, with a cannon of an arm and the hands and athleticism to handle the position; the risk is that his bat might be so advanced that it’s better to move him to another position so he can get to the majors, à la Bryce Harper, Wil Myers or Paul Konerko. The Orioles also have a pretty good young catcher ahead of Basallo, which might change Basallo’s trajectory, although it isn’t relevant for the purposes of this ranking — Basallo projects as a power-hitting catcher with a strong OBP and the ability to control the running game, making him one of the top catching prospects in all of baseball.

2023 Ranking: 32

Domínguez reached the majors last year, just four years removed from signing for a $5.1 million bonus and more hype than any Dominican amateur player since Miguel Sanó a decade earlier, only to have his season end prematurely when he needed Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow. Before that, however, he showed why he was so highly touted, with plenty of hard contact in the majors and in Triple A, topping out around 110 mph and hammering fastballs of any velocity. He has outstanding bat speed and easy plus power, while he’s a 70 runner underway and looks like he’ll be a plus defender in center if he’s given the opportunity out there. He’s a true switch-hitter, although he’s better from the left side, with enough platoon split last year to at least bear watching. He’s improved his pitch recognition by leaps and bounds since he began his pro career in 2021, and while he reached the majors sooner than anyone expected, he wasn’t overmatched and his batted-ball data was even better than the stat line. He’ll probably miss at least the first third of the 2024 season, maybe half, based on typical recovery times for position players with TJ surgeries, and perhaps that gives the Yankees cover to let him go mash in Triple A for a month before he returns to the majors. Once he’s healthy, he offers 20/20 upside with strong batting averages as well and the potential for plus defense in center or, if he loses any throwing strength, maybe 65-70 defense in left. The hype may have died down a bit but he looks like he’s going to be a star right on schedule.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Anthony boasts one of the best-looking swings in the minors, making a number of adjustments between when the Red Sox took him in the second round in 2022 and the start of 2023, turning him into one of the game’s top offensive prospects. Those adjustments included freeing up his hands and helping him keep his lead arm looser through contact for more power, while also using his lower half more to produce harder contact — something Boston cited when promoting him out of Low A despite a mediocre stat line of .228/.376/.316 at the level. He responded by hitting .301/.422/.565 the rest of the way between High A and a 10-game stint in Double A, so, hey, sorry I doubted you guys! He struck out around 28 percent of the time after the promotion but doesn’t chase often at all until he gets to two strikes, so the approach is sound, and the power is already showing up with more to come as he fills out. He’s playing more center now and Boston is working with him to improve his routes and his first-step quickness to give him a chance to remain there, with plus defense in a corner another potential outcome if he has to move. The Red Sox previously had the Greek God of Walks; maybe soon they’ll have Roman, God of Swings.

2023 Ranking: 20

Otherwise known as Jackson Barrel because, well, it’s not because he likes cognac. Merrill transformed his body in the 2021-22 offseason and has spent the last two years making a ton of contact while playing excellent defense at short, working his way up to Double A before his 21st birthday. Only 14 minor-league hitters who played enough to qualify in full-season ball struck out less often than Merrill’s 12.1 percent rate last season, and he actually struck out slightly less in Double A than he had in High A — and way less than he did in 2022. He’s gotten quite a bit stronger since high school, but so far that hasn’t translated into hard contact or high BABIPs, as he was under .300 at both stops last year. Merrill’s typical swing is very short, allowing him to make contact at high rates but at a cost of some of that impact, so the Padres have worked to help him get his lower half involved more and stay back better so that he can at least start to show more pull power. If you look at the body, the swing path through contact, and the feel for the zone, you can project 20+ homers in time, especially if he can start driving the ball the other way as well as to his pull side. He’s a 55 defender at short now who’ll likely end up plus, while he’s fast enough to handle centerfield if that became an option and should have no trouble at third or second. He has a wide range of outcomes despite a high floor; at worst he’s a low-OBP utilityman who plays forever because he can put the ball in play and handle six or seven positions. If the power comes, though, he could be a shortstop with a bat that would profile in right field, hitting for average even with low walk rates and getting to that 20-25 home run upside.

2023 Ranking: 18

Johnson has real plate discipline and excellent feel to hit, leading the full-season minors in walk rate and finishing fifth in total walks drawn with 101. He has excellent pitch selection and developing power but some cracks in the approach and the defense that weren’t apparent before this year. Johnson cleared up the hitch he would flash in high school and his bat path is clean and lets him get to that emerging power, with 18 homers in 2023 after he hit just one in 23 games in his pro debut the year before. He doesn’t chase, a skill that was more evident after he was promoted out of the Florida State League, where the league uses automated ball-strike system for some games, which has produced higher walk rates when it’s in place. However, he’s shown more propensity to whiff in the zone, and a late load seems to be impairing his timing, so even if he picks up the pitch type he’s still showing some swing and miss. Defensively, he’s moved to second base and scouts are very mixed on whether that’s going to be a long-term solution for him, as his footwork isn’t great and he’s getting by on his incredible instincts and baseball IQ — which isn’t a bad thing, mind you, but might not keep him at the position unless his mechanics improve. His range of outcomes has widened in both directions since last offseason; he could be a high-OBP, 18-22 homer second baseman, making a lot of All-Star teams and playing for a long time, but he could also end up in left field and/or miss too much in the zone to get to the high averages and OBPs everyone foresaw in high school.

2023 Ranking: Sleeper

De Paula signed for just under $400,000 as an international free agent in January 2022, and he’s since shown incredible feel for the strike zone as a teenager in Low A along with some high-end exit velocities already that point to a very big OBP/power upside. Born in Brooklyn but signed out of the Dominican Republic, De Paula — who is cousins with Stephon Marbury (tastefully done) — has outstanding bat speed and really controls the zone, with both ball/strike and pitch recognition that led to walk and strikeout rates well above the Low-A average last year. The main concern with him is that he’s a well below-average runner already at age 18, and has so much projection left to his body that he might grow himself right into first base. The combination of bat speed, selectivity, present power, and big physical projection could make him among the best hitters in baseball at his peak, and if so, whether it’s at first base or in an outfield corner won’t really matter.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Shaw was No. 7 on my 2023 pre-draft rankings after a spring when he hit everything hard for the University of Maryland, barreling up balls for a .341/.445/.697 line with some of the best batted-ball data in the class. The Cubs were overjoyed when he fell to the 14th pick, and were aggressive with him after he signed, getting him to Double A in September after he hit .393/.427/.655 in his 20-game stint in High A. Shaw’s swing already puts the ball in the air on a line, in the range that maximizes power and production on contact, with an average launch angle of 26 degrees last spring. He’s also shown the ability to recognize balls and strikes and thus limit his chase rate. He played shortstop in college but struggled with some of the harder throws, so he was always expected to move to second base or maybe the outfield; the Cubs have a more critical need at third base now, so he’s likely to see a lot of time there this year as they try to see if he can provide them with a long-term solution. Wherever he plays, he seems very, very likely to hit, and to end up hitting for more game power than his raw power grades (I’d say 55) might indicate.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Mayo hits the ball really, really hard, and he also hits it pretty often, which is a great starting point for any bat-first prospect; he drew 93 walks last year between Double A and Triple A to go with 29 homers and a 24 percent strikeout rate, which I think demonstrates his floor as “just” a three true outcomes hitter already. He’s 6-5 and listed at 230 pounds, so he’s got a big strike zone and some innate length to the swing just from the size of his arms. To his credit, he’s developed his eye at the plate over the last three years, with help from the Orioles’ staff, allowing him to make better swing decisions and look more for pitches he can drive to take advantage of that natural strength. There may always be some swing and miss here, notably on breaking stuff in the zone, due to his size and his wide setup at the plate, but a team could live with it because what he does on contact is so good — he hits it hard, and in the air, and can go the other way a little bit even though his power is mostly to his pull side. He’s got a 70 arm that would allow him to play anywhere, but third base is probably an uphill battle because of his size — he’s athletic enough for it, but it’s hard for guys that tall to stay on the dirt and consistently get down for groundballs. He could certainly play first right now and I’d like to see him in right field. The left side of the Orioles’ infield is the most densely populated place in America, so a position switch might serve everyone’s needs anyway. He probably won’t add much value on defense, but won’t hurt you, and a 30-homer, 80-walks guy who posts high BABIPs because everything off the bat is 90 mph or better is an above-average regular who plays for every team.

2023 Ranking: 29

Alcántara was part of the return from the Yankees for Anthony Rizzo at the 2021 trade deadline. The trade came right after he turned 19, and turned him almost immediately into one of the Cubs’ top prospects despite his inexperience to that point and the amount of physical projection he still had remaining. He’s still got a fair amount of growth ahead of him, and his game overall remains inconsistent, but he has superstar-level tools and has days where he’s clearly the best player on the field. The ball flies off his bat already, with 20-25 homer power now and the potential for 35-40 when he fills out, while he’s also a plus runner who plays at least solid-average defense in center. After a rough start to last year (including a 21:1 strikeout to walk ratio in May), he hit .329/.404/.551 from June 1 onward around a stint on the injured list and a promotion to Double A for the final five games of his season. Despite his 6-6 frame and a swing that sometimes looks like it’s out of control, he’s kept his strikeout rate around 24 percent, an excellent sign for his long-term outlook given the sheer size of his strike zone. He’s not the Cubs’ No. 1 prospect because he offers so much risk, but he has 30/30 upside in the middle of the field and a lot of other ways he could develop that would still make him an above-average or better everyday player.

2023 Ranking: 82

Jobe missed the first half of 2023 with a back injury, but when he returned, he threw better than he had in all of 2022, throwing 64 innings across four levels, striking out 84, and walking just six batters. Jobe works at 94-98 mph with a four-pitch mix that features a plus changeup, an above-average curveball in the low 80s, and a hard but short slider at 89-92, with huge spin rates on the heater and breaking balls. I have the slower pitch as the better one now and think that if he focuses on it he can get it to plus, as it already has tight rotation and huge vertical break. His delivery has effort to it even though it’s compact, with some head-whack at release, and he whips through the delivery so quickly he might not be generating enough of that velocity from his lower half. He’s a very good athlete, however, and should be able to make some adjustments if the Tigers want to try to reduce the effort involved. It’s No. 1 starter stuff and he at least has shown the kind of control to pitch atop a rotation, as long as he can stay healthy.

2023 Ranking: Sleeper

Listed at just 5-6, 175, Williams had an outstanding full-season debut last year, hitting .263/.425/.451 across three levels while playing solid-ish defense at shortstop and showing plus speed on the bases. Williams has surprising power for his size, which I assume is more accurate than the claimed 5-8 when he was in high school, and hits the ball hard enough to keep his averages up and produce 10-15 homers a year. It’s a compact swing — how could it be otherwise? — that puts the ball in the air a ton, and he uses the whole field well. His shortstop defense gets mixed reviews, with some belief he’ll stay at the position, although it’s easy to imagine him sliding to second base if he can’t stay there.

2023 Ranking: 51

Lee was the eighth pick in the 2022 draft, a very advanced hitter who’d been on scouts’ radar as a top prospect since he was in high school. He confirmed that by going to Double A to start his first full pro season and hitting .292/.365/.476 there before an August promotion to Triple A, setting him up to reach the majors this year. He’s a switch-hitter with some effort to the swing, showing a big split last year between his production from the left side (.287/.366/.494) and right side (.231/.266/.337), with a history of high contact rates, especially on fastballs in the zone. He’s boosted his contact quality in the last year and hits a ton of line drives, as his swing finishes with enough loft to often put him in the ideal launch-angle range for line-drive contact. He’s mostly played shortstop in the minors, getting just seven starts at the hot corner last year, but his long-term position is more likely to be off shortstop — probably third base, as he has plenty of arm for the left side of the infield and soft enough hands for third. He should hit for a .280-.300 average with strong OBPs and homer totals in the teens, playing above-average or better defense at third or second base, or 45 defense at shortstop if he’s forced to stay there by injuries or other circumstances.

2023 Ranking: 37

Rafaela’s one of the most fascinating prospects in the minors, a 5-9 infielder/center fielder from Curaçao who hits the ball harder than you’d expect from someone his size, plays some of the best center-field defense anywhere in professional baseball, and might swing at a butterfly if it flew within 10 feet of him. He started his pro career at shortstop and third base, but he’s too inconsistent for short and ended up moving to second, where he’s plus, and center, where he might be an 80, with easy routes and at least 70 speed to cover huge tracts of land. As a hitter, he­ boasts great bat speed and can connect with a lot of pitches out of the strike zone, which worked well enough in the minors but was an area that major-league pitchers exploited during his 28-game MLB debut. He’ll probably never be much for the free pass, but if he just cuts down on the chase, he has the strength and the loft in his finish to at least hit for line-drive power — balls to the gaps that will become doubles and triples with his speed, plus probably 12-18 homers a year, although he did hit 22 last year across three levels. He’s not the sort of player I typically like with his undisciplined approach, but I think he has a chance to be the most valuable defensive outfielder in baseball, giving him a high floor and thus time to clean up the approach enough for the swing and speed to play.

2023 Ranking: Sleeper

A pitcher and infielder at UNC Pembroke when the Padres drafted him in the 11th round in 2021, Ryan came to the Dodgers in a trade that sent Matt Beaty to San Diego. Once in the Dodgers’ system, Ryan became a full-time pitcher. He’s taken off since then, reaching Triple A last year in his second pro season, striking out almost a quarter of the batters he faced, and throwing four pitches that all at least flash plus. He’s up to 99 mph and pitches at 94-97 with a hammer curveball, sweepy slider, and hard fading changeup, dominating right-handed batters last year while showing some platoon split, particularly in OBP (he allowed a .388 OBP to lefties last year due to a 13 percent walk rate against them). He’s a superb athlete, as you’d expect from a former middle infielder, and his body looks ready to step into a major-league rotation now. He needs reps, as he still has just 152 professional innings on his resume, and in those reps he needs to continue to work on command of all of his pitches as well as his feel for the changeup. Ryan could be a No. 2 starter, and while I don’t think he’s ready for a major-league role just yet, he’s advanced so quickly he could easily make another big leap this spring and see Chavez Ravine before September.

2023 Ranking: 13

I wrote last year that the only thing that could stop Painter’s march to the majors was his injury risk, which unfortunately turned out to be more true than I anticipated — I thought it was just a possibility given his age, how hard he throws, and some very minor mechanical issues, but he ended up missing the year with a torn UCL, undergoing Tommy John surgery in July that will probably keep him out until this fall. When healthy, Painter shows No. 1 starter stuff, bumping 99 mph and sitting 94-97 with a hammer to make Thor jealous in his curveball, along with an above-average changeup he hadn’t begun to use enough and a slider that’s probably an unnecessary fourth pitch right now. He comes from a high three-quarters arm slot that, combined with his 6-7 height, makes it a very uncomfortable look for hitters on both sides of the plate. He’d also shown better control in his time in A-ball than he had even as an amateur, along with the ability to separate those two breaking balls in the curve and slider and use them in different spots. There’s risk with TJ surgery, from the slight chance he loses some velocity to the somewhat greater chance that his curveball isn’t the same afterwards (Lucas Giolito and Jay Groome had this happen). If all goes well with his rehab, perhaps he can throw in instructs or — and I admit to some self-interest here — the Arizona Fall League, which would set him up to start 2025 on something approaching a regular schedule. The ace upside is still there, just with more unknowns until we see him back on a mound and at full strength.

Photo:

Philadelphia Phillies

2023 Ranking: Sleeper

Lesko was cruising towards being a top-10 pick in 2022, maybe even one of the top five, when he tore his UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery after an electric (but, alas, injury-shortened) outing at the NHSI tournament at the USA Baseball complex in Cary, NC. Lesko had been up to 97 mph with a grade-70 changeup and a much improved curveball with incredibly high spin rates, surprising for someone who came into the spring with serious questions about whether he’d ever have a usable breaking ball. He returned in the middle of 2023 and finished the year in High A, throwing 33 innings in total to set him up for a full season of work in 2024. He had most of his stuff back, working 94-98 in short outings with that 70 changeup, while the breaking ball was inconsistent but could flash plus with big depth and that tight rotation again. His delivery has always been repeatable and he should be able to throw strikes and get to above-average command in time, although in his first year back he wasn’t close to average in either category. You can dream on him a little and see an ace because of the three pitches, one a no-doubt swing-and-miss pitch, and a delivery that works for a starter. I’d just like to see what his stuff and command look like over a fuller season in 2023 before going that far, and I’m more comfortable saying he’s a mid-rotation guy with a chance to be a No. 2 starter if he stays healthy.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Keith was the Tigers’ fifth-round pick in the 2020 draft, meaning he was their last one, and he has a good chance to end up their best player from that class — even better than No. 1 pick Spencer Torkelson. Keith has great feel for the barrel and makes a ton of hard contact, improving his typical launch angle this past year to get the ball in the air more. That allowed him to go from 11 homers in 113 games in 2021-22 to 27 homers in 126 games last season. He’s topped 110 mph already despite a short swing that you might think would limit his impact. He’s turned himself into a capable third baseman, good enough to stay there, although he could also end up at second base to minimize any concerns about the arm strength not playing at the hot corner. I don’t think it matters much; even if he’s at first base, which now looks like a real worst-case scenario, he’ll hit enough to be at least a good regular with .280-.300 averages and 25-35 homer power. He’s athletic enough to be an average defender at second base with some work, though, and that could make him an easy 5-win player.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

There’s always at least one guy from every draft who goes out for a month or so after signing and makes people ask why he wasn’t drafted higher — Dalton Rushing was that guy in 2022, Zack Gelof in 2021 — and Emerson certainly did that last summer. The 22nd pick in 2023 went 15 for 28 in a week in the ACL and then hit .302/.436/.444 in 16 games in the Cal League when he was barely 18 years old, wowing scouts with his feel to hit for such a young player from an Ohio high school. Emerson has a loose, easy left-handed swing, favoring contact over power, without a lot of work coming from his lower half yet to drive the ball — something I imagine the Mariners will work on right away — although he already makes solid-average contact quality. He’s a 45 or barely 50 runner, not likely to stay at shortstop, and split time between there and second in his few weeks in the minors. Before the draft, I said he had the upside of a “high-average, 15 to 20-homer sort of hitter at second base,” and pro scouts and analysts seem to agree with that after his pro debut, but with more confidence than I had pre-draft that he’ll get there. It’s early days, but Seattle might have a steal on their hands.

2023 Ranking: Just missed

Williams was Tampa’s first-round pick in 2021, but at the time there were questions about multiple aspects of his game, including his power and even his running. He’s improved in just about every way since then, changing his gait to become a plus runner, building strength to hit 42 homers over the last two years, and developing into an easy plus defender at shortstop. What he does not do, however, is make enough contact, with a 31.4 percent strikeout rate during the regular season in 2023 and then a 36.5 percent rate in the hitter-friendly (and pitching-starved) Arizona Fall League. It’s a pitch recognition issue, as he really struggles against offspeed stuff even in the zone, yet doesn’t chase pitches all that often. When he makes contact, it’s generally high quality, so he doesn’t have to make a huge adjustment to become a star, just better distinguish non-fastballs and perhaps to stop swinging so hard at them. If he played on the other end of the defensive spectrum, he wouldn’t be on the top 100. As it is, though, he’s got four tools that are 6s or better, and if the hit tool just gets to 45, he’s going to be a very good big leaguer.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Jones was the Pirates’ second-round pick in the 2020 draft, a high school pitcher with arm strength and athleticism but a long way to go as a pitcher. Their patience is paying off, as he reached Triple A last year as a four-pitch guy who looks like he’ll at least be a league-average starter with more room to grow. He’s sitting mid-90s now, touching 100 mph, with a slider that’s gone from a 40 to presently close to a 60, getting into the low 90s with high spin and some sharp downward break. He throws all four pitches for strikes, with a changeup that’s good enough to keep lefties in check. His stuff did taper off as the season progressed, not excessively but enough to mention, and he may need to work on pacing himself in the earlier part of the year to stay strong through September in the longer big-league season. He’s the most polished of Pittsburgh’s upper-level pitching prospects and the most likely to come up and help in the majors this year. Whether his ceiling extends beyond that of a mid-rotation guy may come down to his in-season durability more than anything with his stuff or approach.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Signed last January for a $3.2 million bonus, Walcott, who born in The Bahamas, spent most of his first pro season in the U.S., earning huge raves from scouts who saw him launch seven homers in 35 games in the ACL as a 17-year-old. He’s got the potential for 70 power once he fills out, depending on how the hit tool develops from here. He swings very hard, producing the hard contact you’d expect from his swing, but he also struck out 32.3 percent of the time between rookie ball and four games in Low A (he also played nine games in the Dominican Summer League). Scouts felt like he made progress even within the summer in improving his swing decisions, and he did drop his strikeout rate significantly from July (49 percent) to August (22 percent), although that’s some pretty thin slicing there. He’s an average runner and definitely not a shortstop, even though he’ll probably play there a few more years until he outgrows it, with third base the most likely position long-term. There is the potential he gets so big he just ends up in an outfield corner. He’s the second-youngest player on the top 100, after Ethan Salas, and has the risk you’d expect from a teenager with so little experience. The fact that he did as well as he did is a great sign, however, and he has the strength and power to back up the hype.

2023 Ranking: 14

It’s been about as quick a fall from grace as you’ll see for Jones, who was the second pick in 2022 and No. 1 on many draft boards (including my own), but who required shoulder surgery before he even got into a pro game that summer and played just 41 games in 2023, struggling through much of it. Jones is a lot like his father, Andruw Jones, playing elite defense in center and showing plus power and speed on offense, but the comparison doesn’t help the son when the dad was already playing in the World Series at this age. Jones did hit the ball hard when he played last year, but too much of it was on the ground because his swing was a mess after the surgery and an offseason of rehab during which he couldn’t swing a bat. He didn’t look right in spring training, either in his mechanics or his conditioning, stepping in the bucket and barely getting his lower half involved at all. He played just 10 games in Low A in April before hurting his quad, and then hurt his hamstring while rehabbing in June, finally returning to Low-A Visalia on Aug. 15, 118 days after his last game at the level. He hit .296/.412/.437 in the last 19 games before he ran out of season, with a 23.5 percent strikeout rate, which came in a tiny sample but is a lot more consistent with the player everyone thought he’d be coming out of high school. I heard from scouts who buried him off their 2023 looks, and I can understand why. I also don’t think it’s reasonable to give up on a player who is this talented and was so good in high school when he had 14 months of injuries and never got extended playing time to correct what he was doing wrong at the plate. I’m inclined to call it a lost year and see how he looks this spring when he’s had a proper offseason to work on his body and swing.

2023 Ranking: 25

Montgomery missed the first half of 2023 with an oblique strain and then a strained muscle in his mid-back, finally returning to full-season ball on July 4 and to Double A (where he’d finished the previous season) on Aug. 1. He performed well at every level but never quite looked like he did in his torrid 2022 season, when he earned some comps to Corey Seager — another big shortstop who outlasted predictions that he’d move to third, including some from yours truly. Montgomery has a great approach at the plate, walking as much as he struck out last year, but the injury seemed to limit his flexibility and impacted his swing, making him much more dead-pull and causing him to roll over a lot of pitches he might have taken the other way in 2022. The consensus on his defense has shifted for the better, and it’s probably about even-money that he stays there in the eyes of the industry, with good reads and soft hands along with plenty of arm for that side of the dirt. I’m betting that the version Montgomery we saw last year, including the tight, slow look in the Arizona Fall League, is the result of rust and continued recovery. Given the chance to reset and come back as the high-contact, all-fields hitter we saw in his first full pro season, he should resume his march to Chicago and end up their everyday solution at short or third, with 4-5 WAR upside thanks to the hit tool and position.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Crawford was the Phillies’ first-round pick in 2022 out of a Las Vegas high school; he’s the son of Carl Crawford and cousin of J.P. Crawford. He’s a long way from being a finished product, but his tools are so good that he can outplay a lot of his deficiencies. He’s a 70 runner who can really play center field, while at the plate he’s already posted high exit velocities and can show big power the other way in BP that’s starting to emerge in games. He spent most of last year with Low-A Clearwater and hit .344/.399/.478 in 69 games with 40 steals before a late-season promotion to High A. He posted those solid numbers even with a lot of inconsistency in the swing that can cause him to get on top of the ball too often. He’s still got 10-15 pounds of room to fill out, which could make him a 20-homer, 50-steal guy who plays plus or better defense in center. He might be a level-a-year guy, though, as it takes time for him to fill out.

2023 Ranking: 95

Black is the sort of player you love if he’s on your team and hate if he’s in the other dugout, as he plays hard all the time, and will fight for every out and every ball or strike until the game ends. Drafted 33rd in 2021 out of Wright State, Black has real plate discipline and great feel for the barrel, with a .400+ OBP at High A, Double A, and Triple A over the last two seasons. His hands are quick and he’s short to the ball and through contact, so the swing is more conducive to low line drives and some groundballs than to power. He’s a 70 runner who should be able to play center and is adequate at second, although since shoulder surgery his arm hasn’t been great and the left side of the infield might be out of reach. It’s an unusual profile for first base, but I think he can produce a .400 OBP with 10-15 homers and a ton of value on the bases, which would be enough offense for the position even without huge power, and then the only real question would be if his height holds him back. His floor is a super-utility guy who still gets 400-500 PA a year playing all over the diamond, but I’m in the camp that says he’s a starter at second, in left or — if he’s not with Milwaukee — in center, and he’ll be a favorite of hometown fans once they see how he plays.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Acuña is the younger brother of reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. and went to the Mets as part of the return for Max Scherzer this past July. He’s only 5-8 but he’s ultra-twitchy and shows 60 raw power in BP and 65-70 running speed, although in games he can show more contact than power and might need a small swing adjustment to get to more than 12-15 homers a year. His contact quality improved from 2022 to 2023, which at least sets him up to be a high doubles guy and gives him a strong floor as a regular at some position up the middle. He’s a shortstop now and projects to stay there, with the speed and lateral range to handle it or move to center field if need be. As is, he’s probably a high-average, high-doubles shortstop who steals 40-50 bags a year, although I could see him trading some contact for more power and getting to 20 jacks. Either way, he’s got an above-average regular’s ceiling and a floor that should make Mets fans feel good about the trade.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Young was Seattle’s first-round pick in 2022, going 21st out of a Pittsburgh-area high school, and was their top prospect until Colt Emerson took the field in August. Young is also a left-handed-hitting middle infielder, but it’s a different profile, as Young’s a better athlete, better runner, and has a significantly better chance to stay at shortstop in the long run. He’s got a great feel for the barrel, with a strikeout rate last season under 15 percent. There were 13 minor leaguers who had 600+ plate appearances in 2023, and Young had the lowest strikeout rate of any of them, which is especially impressive since it was his first full pro season and he even moved up to High A after the All-Star break. He’s got a fairly simple swing and plenty of bat speed, although without a lot of loft in his finish he might peak around average power. It could be an elite hit tool, though, and even 8-12 homers a year would be plenty for a high-average, high-OBP shortstop to be an All-Star.

2023 Ranking: 48

Rodriguez missed about 2/3 of the 2022 season after a knee injury, but he impressed scouts with his power and approach in the limited time he played. He showed more of the same in a full season of work in 2023, moving to High A as a 20-year-old and hitting .240/.400/.463 with 92 walks in 99 games, although now it’s time for him to swing more often and convert those good counts into damage. He started out 2023 in horrific fashion, with a .163 average and 38.5 percent strikeout rate through the end of May, so the season line may not do him justice. He’s got a big leg kick, and when he swings, he swings pretty hard, with plus game power already and high exit velocities for his age, offering the possibility of a 30-homer corner bat with high walk totals. He’s a 55 runner who plays center now, with a body that’s probably going to slow down and push him to a corner as he gets into his 20s, with maybe average range up the middle as it is. He doesn’t chase much, with his high strikeout total more a function of running deep counts than poor recognition — he saw 4.29 pitches per PA last year, putting him in the top 5 percent of all minor leaguers with at least 400 PA, but needs to swing a little more at good strikes. There’s real upside with the bat if he translates the selectivity into more of the hard contact he’s already making when he does deign to swing.

2023 Ranking: 100

Chandler finally gave up trying to be a two-way player, and it’s probably not surprising that he made much more progress in 2023 just trying to pitch than he had the year before. Chandler has an incredible fastball, 94-98 mph with huge induced vertical, a pitch that, when he stops trying to be too fine in locating it, will be a wipeout offering. He pairs it with a 70 changeup and can spin two distinct breaking balls, although landing either of them is still a work in progress. As you might expect from a former shortstop/pitcher and high school quarterback, he’s an outstanding athlete and his delivery doesn’t have a ton of effort for the velocity it generates. He had some control issues early in the year, but finished strongly — his final nine starts, one of which came in Double A, had him throwing 48 2/3 innings with 51 strikeouts, 13 walks, and a 1.66 ERA. He’s got the highest ceiling of the Pirates’ trio of starter prospects (not named Paul Skenes) along with Jared Jones and lefty Anthony Solometo.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

In 2022, Horton was about as late a pop-up guy as you’ll ever find in the draft; he missed 2021 with Tommy John surgery, didn’t join the University of Oklahoma’s rotation until partway through the spring, and changed his breaking ball right before their postseason, turning into one of the best pitchers in the NCAA tournament field. The Cubs took him with the seventh-overall pick, a selection I thought was very risky given his scant track record of success, but he’s kept improving since they signed him and right now the pick looks brilliant. Horton was a two-pitch guy in college without anything for lefties, relying on an out-pitch slider up to 89 mph that had very sharp, late downward break, while touching 98 with the fastball. The Cubs helped him dust off his seldom-used changeup, and with more reps it’s become a plus pitch for him and can allow him to get by with a fastball that doesn’t have tremendous movement. He’ll have to work more on fastball command, but the fact that he finished his first full pro year in Double A, just 16 months after his season ERA for Oklahoma hit 7.94 when he got crushed in the Big 10 Tournament, is quite a story for him and for the Cubs. He looks like a mid-rotation starter, although with the speed of his development so far I might still be selling him short.

2023 Ranking: 17

Collier was the 18th pick in the 2022 draft out of Chipola College, where he’d played as a 17-year-old after graduating early from high school and moving to the junior college to enter the draft a year sooner. The son of former big leaguer Lou Collier, Cam is already pushing 6-3 and past his listed 210 pounds, enough that he’ll probably have to work on conditioning now rather than gaining strength so he can stay at third base. He’s a bat-first guy and projects to hit for average and power, showing good feel for the strike zone despite his youth and very rarely missing on pitches in the zone last year (with the caveat that the Florida State League has the ABS in place). After a slow start as one of the youngest players anywhere in full-season ball, Collier picked it up in the second half, hitting .290/.389/.395 with plenty of hard contact, topping out over 110 mph. He’s younger than five of the 11 high school position players taken in the first 30 picks of the 2023 draft, yet already has a full year of pro ball experience. He can still cut through the ball too often, hitting it on the ground way more than he should last year (53 percent in Low A) as he made contact on some pitches he should have let go by, and he has to avoid getting any bigger so he doesn’t end up moving to the outfield. He makes more than enough hard contact to project 25+ homers and strong batting averages as long as he continues to make adjustments as he faces better pitching up the ladder.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Luis hadn’t played in the U.S. before 2023 but finished his season in Low A, hitting four homers in 36 games for Visalia with a .257/.310/.417 line as a true 18 year old. He already shows tremendous bat speed and makes strong contact for his age and size, as he’s about 6 feet and still lean, with plus or better power projection when he fills out. He’s got a great swing for both average and power from both sides of the plate, showing solid swing decisions for his age with room for improvement as he gets older, especially as he faces better offspeed stuff. He’s a shortstop now, probably a 45 defender there when it’s all said and done and better off moving to second base, where he still has All-Star upside because of the bat.

2023 Ranking: 47

Tiedemann threw just 44 innings in the regular season around injuries to his left shoulder and biceps, making four starts in the AFL to try to make up for some of the lost time. He did regain the velocity that had been missing at the end of 2022, bumping 98 mph and pitching at 93-96 in the outing I saw in the desert, with a plus changeup and a big-breaking slider that wasn’t up to its past standard that day. The slider’s pretty high spin and has good tilt, giving him two real weapons, one for lefties and one for righties, which also helps as his fastball doesn’t have a ton of life or movement and hitters square it up more than the velocity might imply. His delivery isn’t ideal for durability, as his shoulder stays open late, with some sling to the arm stroke, and that might be putting undue pressure on the joint. You have to start a guy with these weapons, and if he stays healthy enough for it he’s a mid-rotation starter or better depending on the control (maybe 45 now, but he’s shown better) and command (40). Two years of missed time and suboptimal mechanics give him a lot of reliever risk, though.

2023 Ranking: 84

House was the Nats’ first-round pick in 2021, then he missed more than half of his first full pro season with a back injury and COVID-19, so this past season was more of a proper debut for the slugging third baseman. He hit .297 or better at three different levels, from Low A to Double A, and struck out less than a quarter of the time on the season as he showed much better offspeed recognition than he had previously. He even flashed some power, with 12 homers in 88 games, although I think the expectation for him is even higher than that. Unfortunately, House is over-aggressive at the plate, swinging first and asking questions later, walking less than 5 percent of the time between High A and Double A, so his batting average, while not empty, was also less than full: he hit .312/.365/.497 on the year. He’s awkward at third base at times because he’s so big, but he’s got plenty of arm and when I’ve seen him he’s made the routine plays. He doesn’t have to become a high-walk guy to be an above-average regular — stay at third and up the in-game power and he’ll get there even with a 5 percent walk rate, because he already hits the ball pretty hard and can get the ball in the air, if sometimes too much. There are a number of paths to success here as long as he can tighten up the pitch recognition.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Teel was the best catcher in the 2023 draft class, a three-year starter at UVA who probably would have gotten first-round money out of high school had the pandemic not wiped out his senior season in New Jersey. He’s an unusually good athlete and runner for a backstop, with excellent bat speed and a swing that produces line drives to the gaps with occasional over-the-fence power, although in college he did much more damage against right-handers, with softer contact versus southpaws. He was a solid-average defender in college, very active behind the plate with a plus arm, but was not good in Double A when Boston sent him there at the end of the season — quite likely tired from a long season but also showing he needs to simplify his movements back there to catch better quality stuff than he had to handle in Charlottesville. He could come into some pull-side power with a few small adjustments at the plate, depending on how Boston wants to develop him; a catcher who hits a ton of line drives and is at least an average receiver is good enough to make some All-Star teams, and he’d solve a problem the Red Sox have had for years at that position.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Scott played three years at West Virginia, hitting a composite .254/.368/.419 and never hitting .300 in any of his seasons there, which is probably how an 80 runner at a major-conference school ends up a fifth-round pick. He took off in his full-season debut last year, hitting for a higher average at High A, Double A, and in the Arizona Fall League than he did in any season for the Mountaineers, while also stealing 94 bags to tie for the professional lead. He’s a plus defender in center, closer to a 70 than a 60, and he’s been very hard to strike out in the minors, with just a 15.6 percent strikeout rate between High A and Double A, something that particularly matters when you can turn almost any groundball into a hit. He’s small, but not feeble like a lot of guys who run like he does, and über-athletic, which is part of how he’s been able to make such quick adjustments on both sides of the ball. The floor here seems very high — a plus defender in center who adds this kind of value on the bases would have to be positively anemic with the bat to have no real value — while he could have a long, long run as an everyday guy even with just 8-12-homer-a-year power, which I think is already within reach.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

The Rays took Taylor with the 19th pick in the 2023 draft after a solid year at TCU where he hit a career-high 23 homers but slumped some in the middle of the spring, perhaps pushing him down in a draft loaded with college position players. He has a beautiful left-handed swing with excellent loft in his finish, so he barrels a lot of balls and projects to get to above-average power at his peak. He’s a solid-average defender at third right now and might have a 60 arm, while he’s athletic enough to improve there with work or move to second base. He’s an average runner but a smart base stealer who hasn’t been caught stealing since 2021, going 36 for 36 across college, summer ball, and the minors in the last two calendar years. His low BABIP last spring in college (.307) seemed very fluky based on his hard contact rates and typical launch angles, so it’s possible, even likely, that the Rays landed a top-10 talent here because he had an unlucky spring. I see an average regular who gets to the majors pretty quickly, with the potential to be a 55 or more if the defense improves and he reaches his 20-25 homer ceiling.

2023 Ranking: Just missed

The Jays challenged Martinez with an assignment to Double A to start 2022 when he was just 20 years old and had only 27 games of High-A experience, so it wasn’t a huge shock that he struggled, hitting .203/.286/.446 with a 28.4 percent strikeout rate. The Jays returned him to Double-A New Hampshire in 2023 and he looked like a different guy, improving his swing decisions across the board, posting the best walk rate of his career and his lowest strikeout rate since Rookie ball. He’s always had the raw power, with 86 homers across the last three seasons, but needed to hit enough to get to it, so improving not just the raw contact and walk numbers but getting into better counts and choosing better pitches to attack was and still is the key for him to be more than an extra guy in the majors. He can handle shortstop if need be but at best he’ll be an average defender there; I’ve seen him at third and think he can be above-average at the hot corner, while some scouts think second base will be his eventual home. A 30-homer, .320-330 OBP hitter at either spot is an everyday player on just about any club, and that’s his upside if he keeps working on his approach.

2023 Ranking: 94

Before he was traded to the Brewers in the Corbin Burnes deal last week, I wrote that Ortiz should be someone’s starting shortstop now, but he has the misfortune to play in an organization that has shortstops coming out of its ears — which should make him a very valuable player for hot stove purposes, as he can step into a big-league role right away. He’s a plus defender at short with a strong and accurate arm and he remade his swing and his body during the pandemic, returning much stronger and with a swing that drives the ball effectively to the gaps and gives him a chance for 15-20 homers a year. His exit velocity peaked around 115 mph in Triple A last year, and he makes contact at consistently high rates, under 20 percent strikeout rates everywhere he’s played except for his 34 scattered PA in the majors. A .280/.340/.450-ish hitter who adds 5 or so runs of value on defense is a pretty valuable player, I think, and while there’s no further ceiling or projection here, that ought to be enough to get him a starting job.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Nimmala was one of the youngest players in the 2023 draft class, turning 18 this past October; he fell to the 20th pick, where the Blue Jays were ecstatic to get a player I’d ranked as a top-10 talent. Nimmala offers the upside of a true shortstop with 25+ homer power, with good actions at short and a plus arm, while he can show a powerful and efficient right-handed swing that should launch balls as he fills out. He’s still physically immature, hardly surprising for his age, and as he gets stronger he might start to run a little better and drive the ball harder while also getting more consistent around the bag at short. He showed a little swing and miss in high school, but in a brief stint in the complex league he actually displayed more patience and very little tendency to chase. He’s going to be younger this season than some guys in the upcoming draft, and there’s no rush to send him right to full-season ball. Now that commissioner Rob Manfred has axed the short-season level between Low A and the complexes, there isn’t an ideal spot for a guy like Nimmala, but I hope the Jays play it conservatively given his age and his upside.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Lowder was the second pitcher taken in the 2023 draft, going seventh to the Reds after a tremendous spring for Wake Forest where he finished fourth in Division I with 143 strikeouts. He’s got a funky, deceptive delivery and shows three average or better pitches, with a fastball that can be plus but will probably be more 55 when he’s working on five days’ rest, a 70 changeup that was among the best in the class, and a solid-average slider. Hitters don’t see the ball well out of his hand, so his stuff plays up, and he also was able to get away with 45 command at best in the amateur ranks. There’s a limit to how far he can go with that delivery, as it’s going to be hard for him to be a good command guy and he might see his very low walk rates creep up as he gets to Double A and above, but he should also get to the majors quickly and could pitch for a decade or more as a No. 3 or 4 starter who soaks up innings.

2023 Ranking: 65

The Mariners have had a great run of first-round picks the last six years; starting in 2018, they took Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Emerson Hancock, Ford, Cole Young, and Colt Emerson, so that’s two above-average big-league starters and three guys currently on this top-100. Ford has always been a work-in-progress as a catcher, as he’s super athletic but was really rough at the position as an amateur. He’s made enough progress that it seems like he could stay at the position, although he’s probably still on the low side of average when it comes to receiving and blocking. He may also hit his way off the position, as he shows elite strike zone judgment, ranking third in the minors in walks last year with 103 and striking out less than 20 percent of the time — although even that is surprising given how infrequently he chases. He might be better off sacrificing some contact for more power, as he’s strong enough to at least be a 40 doubles/15 homers guy, but his swing is incredibly short to the ball and right now it’s below-average game power as a result. He hits a lot like he’s always trying to keep his hands inside the ball, which is a great skill to have but not useful for all pitches in all locations. There are multiple paths for Ford to become a big-league starter — he could just improve his defense to the point where he stays there, and then the bat will play immediately; he could move to somewhere on the infield, where the bat would play but you’d like a little more power; or he could take his athleticism and speed to the outfield, easing the defensive concerns and strain on his body but then almost requiring more in-game power. I’ll bet on an athlete who knows the strike zone, though.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Kjerstad reached the majors last year in just his second pro season, and I don’t think enough attention has been paid to how tough a road he had from draft day to the big leagues. Kjerstad developed myocarditis after a bout with COVID-19 in 2020, missing all of 2021 while recovering from the condition, and when he returned in 2022 he looked rusty and had trouble catching up to good velocity — nothing like the player he was at Arkansas in 2019-20. Last year, he was all the way back and then some, making consistent hard contact and more of it than before; when the O’s picked him second in 2020, his high strikeout rates against SEC pitching stood out as a red flag, but last year he showed the best two-strike approach of his career and kept his season strikeout rate under 20 percent until he reached the majors. There’s still more chase than you’d like to see in a corner outfielder whose value is mostly in the bat, and lefties are going to attack him with spin until he shows he can lay off it. Because he hits the ball so hard, so often, I think he can be an above-average hitter even if his strikeout rate drifts north of 25 percent, probably getting to 20-25 homers a year and a high BABIP as well. And maybe then I’ll stop joking about how his name sounds like the lead singer of a melodic death metal band or a storage unit you’d buy at IKEA.

2023 Ranking: 85

Pereira wasn’t ready for the majors last year, but that doesn’t dim his long-term outlook as a potential regular for someone, maybe as a center fielder who can get to 30 homers once his approach catches up with his tools. He has outstanding bat speed, producing a ton of hard contact with a swing that should produce plus power over time and is very short to the ball but explosive once he begins, then with good loft in his finish for some big flies. He’s a 55 runner now with a plus arm and can play center field, although it’s possible that he’ll be pushed to a corner if he loses some speed as he finishes filling out. He struggled with offspeed recognition even in the minors, notably changeups, and that caused him further trouble in the big leagues, as did his habit of expanding the zone too quickly. The Juan Soto trade might be the best thing for him, as it’ll give him plenty of time in Triple A to work on his plan at the plate, laying off more of those pitches out of the zone and better identifying non-fastballs. There’s risk here but if he both stays up the middle and gets to his power peak, he’ll be an All-Star.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Bradfield is an 80 runner and either a 70 or 80 defender in center, depending on who you ask and perhaps when you see him, not that it matters that much in the end — he’s got two top-end tools, and that gives him a high floor and a lot of runway to work on the other aspects of his game. Bradfield seemed like a lock for a top-10 pick after his freshman year at Vanderbilt, when he hit .336/.451/.414 as a 19-year-old in the SEC, stealing 47 bases in 53 attempts, but somewhere, someone convinced him to change his swing to try to hit for power, and while he did go from 1 homer as a freshman to hitting 14 the next two seasons, his overall hitting went backward and I think helped Baltimore land him at pick 15 last season. (It did not help that Bradfield constantly tried to bunt for hits, putting himself behind in the count and doing nothing to right his swing. I have a lot of feelings about this.) He’s not a power hitter, but he’s not powerless, if that makes sense — he is capable of putting 5-10 balls in the seats a year, but the more he tries to do so, the worse he’ll be as a hitter. Last spring, he was loading his hands extremely deep, taking a huge stride, opening his hips way too early, then collapsing his back side to try to lift — or will — the ball out of the park. He needs a simpler approach, like the one he had as a freshman, that focuses on putting the ball in play, as he’ll end up with a lot of extra bases thanks to his speed, and he does have enough strength to drive balls to the gaps and catch up to major-league fastballs. I don’t change players’ rankings or evaluations based on their parent organizations, since that could change at any time, but I think Bradfield is in an organization that will figure out what to do with him very quickly. At worst, you’ve got an elite fourth outfielder/pinch runner, while the ceiling here is huge defensive impact with an average bat.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Troy was the 12th pick in 2023 after a strong junior year at Stanford where he hit .394/.478/.699 as the Cardinal’s primary third baseman — and he did it playing most of the season with a broken bone in his foot that he didn’t get fixed until the fall. He’s an advanced hitter who showed strong exit velocities this spring, although he needed to get the ball in the air more often (again, bearing in mind the broken foot). His bigger question is his ultimate position; he’s athletic enough for the infield, third base or second most likely, but his footwork isn’t great and he may end up in the outfield. The bat should profile anywhere, although he’s quite a bit more valuable if he can just be a 45 defender at second base than he would be in left field.

2023 Ranking: 80

Manzardo was the Rays’ second-round pick in 2021 out of Washington State, where he showed outstanding feel to hit but didn’t put the ball over the fence as much as you’d expect for his size or want for his lack of defensive value. Traded to Cleveland this past July for Aaron Civale, Manzardo started turning on the ball a lot more after he came off the injured list (for a shoulder issue) in August, with six homers in 21 games for Triple-A Columbus and six more in 22 games in the Arizona Fall League. He’s an extremely disciplined hitter who doesn’t chase much and almost never misses on fastballs, destroying right-handed pitching with some trouble with lefties — he makes enough contact but had a .195 BABIP against them last year, which feels fluky given how hard he typically hits the ball. His best position is in the batter’s box and you’ll have to live with some limited defense at first base, which caps his ceiling somewhat, but if he closes that platoon split (or if it turns out to be at least partly bad luck) he’s got a .380-.400 OBP, 30 homer ceiling that will play anywhere.

2023 Ranking: 92

Quero went from the Angels to the White Sox in the Lucas Giolito trade, giving Chicago a bona fide catching prospect for the first time since … Josh Phegley, maybe? It’s been a minute, but they landed a good one in Quero, who has shown exceptional zone awareness for his age and has very real bat-to-ball skills already. He’s a true switch-hitter with high walk and contact rates from both sides, flashing a little pull power but probably maxing out at 10-15 homers a year. He put on a little too much lower-body weight last year, possibly an effort to get him more juice at the plate, but it seemed to slow him down a little defensively. He’s a solid-average catcher overall, improving a little each year and capable of becoming a 55 or better if he continues to work on consistency in receiving and blocking. He has just an average arm, which might be the only drawback to his game. Otherwise, you can project an everyday catcher with 50-55 defense, an OBP north of .350, and a little pop, which is a starter on the majority of MLB teams.

2023 Ranking: 74

Busch is the oldest guy on the list this year and just barely still qualifies — one more day on an MLB roster would have put him over the rookie-eligibility limit — but he’s ready for everyday duty in the majors right now, and after this winter’s trade to the Cubs, it looks like he’ll get that opportunity. He’s hit pretty much everywhere he’s played, showing power and hard contact over the last three seasons between Double A and Triple A, while cutting his K-rate significantly while repeating Triple A this past year (26 percent to 19 percent). Even with 61 homers over the last two years, though, he doesn’t project as a 25-30 homer guy in the majors, with a swing that’s more geared towards low line drives. In his 81 PA with the Dodgers last year, that swing resulted in an uncharacteristically high ground-ball rate (58.7 percent, compared to 38.5 percent in his Triple-A time). He’s played first, second, third, and left field in pro ball, looking rough at third but playable at second, while first base is his best position and, fortunately, it’s where the Cubs will ask him to play. I think he’ll end up with an OBP in the .340-350 range and 18-22 homers a year with 30+ doubles, which would make him a solid to above-average regular at first as long as his defense is right around average.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Ramos missed most of the first two months of the 2023 season with a lower abdomen injury and took a little while to get rolling, but ended up with a .271/.369/.457 line as a 21-year-old in Double A. He hit 14 homers in 77 Double-A games, peaking at 111 mph with consistently hard contact. He swings one way, hard, and it’s very rotational, so that might be how the ab injury happened in the first place. Maintaining that core strength will be key for him going forward; he might naturally come into a little more power but he’s strong enough now for 25 homers, so developing the rest of his game is more important. His approach is solid for his age, as he doesn’t expand the zone too easily and kept his strikeout rate in Double A to just under 22 percent, even though he does swing hard pretty much all the time. He’s also a solid-average defender at third with a 55 arm, and could move to second if need be. Ramos could end up doing a little of everything, hitting for average with a 10 percent walk rate and 20-25 homers, and if the version from late in the Arizona Fall League — using the whole field while looking for pitches to pull — carries over, he might be more of a 30-homer guy who cracks some All-Star teams.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Thompson was Colorado’s second pick in the 2022 draft at No. 31. He arrived in pro ball as an advanced hitter from the University of Florida with an uncertain positional profile. The Rockies have moved him around the diamond a bunch, trying him at third and second while giving him some time in the outfield, although in the end it’s his bat that will carry him. Thompson might have a true plus hit tool already, with a pretty simple swing and excellent bat speed, rotating his hips enough to get to at least average power, and he’s shown he can hit left-handed pitching so far in pro ball. He’s best in an outfield corner who has shown he can make the routine plays at second or third to give him some versatility and open up more paths to the majors. There was concern when he was an amateur that he’d have to play first base and might not have the power to profile there; I don’t think either of those things is true at this point, especially not the positional questions, as he’s fine in the outfield and looks like he’ll at least have the average/doubles power to be a strong regular there. He should see the majors at some point this year and could very quickly become the Rockies’ best hitter for average.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Wilken was the Brewers’ first-round pick in 2023 from a loaded Wake Forest team that had two first-rounders and three more guys taken in the second/third rounds last year, and that might have as many as five first-rounders this upcoming year. Even with a big slump in the middle of last spring, Wilken still hit 31 homers for the Deacons — whose home park is homer-friendly — and shows 55 power right now, with excellent balance and hip rotation that point to the potential for more down the road. He’s a hitter first with very high barrel rates in college and solid ball/strike recognition, so he’s comfortable running deep counts. I’m not saying he’s Jeff Bagwell, but that’s the archetype of the young hitter who hits the ball pretty hard, knows the strike zone, and has to grow into more power, so I could see Wilken becoming a 25-homer guy who still posts high OBPs. He’s a solid-average defender at third with a 55 arm, capable of making some difficult plays but needing more consistency on routine ones, with some concern that as the game speeds up he might have trouble maintaining the glove. Even at first base, where the Brewers do have a long-term need anyway, his bat should still make him a solid regular or more.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Snelling was the 39th pick in the 2022 draft, a pitcher-quarterback-linebacker who enticed scouts with his size, athleticism, and arm strength. He made his full-season debut last year and showed superb control at Low A and High A before a late promotion to Double A, where he walked more guys but remained hard to hit. He’s a very strong, physical kid, not overly muscled up although he’ll have to work to remain that way, working 92-96 mph most of the time with a 55 slider and 55 changeup, but nothing clearly plus right now. There’s some effort to his delivery and head-jerk at release, while he can slow his arm down when he’s not throwing his fastball, something hitters will pick up sooner rather than later. He’s also barely 20 and split his time in high school between two sports, so he should have more room to grow than the typical second-year pitcher would. There’s reliever risk, but a No. 2 or 3 starter ceiling, with the median outcome probably more around a fourth starter who’s got some above-average years and some below-average ones.

2023 Ranking: 63

Hence was a slight 17-year-old when the Cardinals drafted him in the second round in 2020 — the same draft class that landed them Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, and Alec Burleson. He pitched just eight innings in 2021 around some minor injury stuff and general workload management, but he took off in 2022 and followed that up with a career-high 96 innings in 2023. Hence is an excellent athlete and has a lightning-quick arm, although it hasn’t translated into a plus breaking ball of any sort yet. He sits 94-96 mph and can reach 98, with a plus or plus-plus changeup already and a slurvy low-80s breaker that’s effective now but that he doesn’t command or finish that well. He’s extremely athletic and has continued to fill out and get stronger to hold his stuff and work deeper into games, so there’s hope he can find a better third pitch, but so far he hasn’t shown much ability to spin or manipulate the ball and the slurve works in part because the fastball/changeup discombobulate hitters (except at the Milwaukee airport). Hence has a very high floor in relief, as he has great arm speed on the changeup and it falls right off the table as it approaches the plate, so he has the two pitches to dominate in short bursts. The hope is he can tighten up the breaking ball or try another one, even a cutter, to give him enough of a third weapon to turn a lineup over three times and be a mid-rotation guy.

2023 Ranking: 71

Cavalli reached the majors at the end of 2022, making one start before hitting the injured list and eventually undergoing Tommy John surgery last March that wiped out his 2023 season. Prior to the injury, he showed size, stuff, athleticism, and the need to work on command and sequencing, things that you hope would come with more repetitions. He’s got easy plus velocity on the fastball and works with a four-pitch mix highlighted by a curveball that has power and depth and moves in a different direction than his other pitches, allowing him to play more with sequencing to change hitters’ eye levels and expectations. He has a solid changeup that he uses primarily against left-handed batters, with almost no platoon split in 2022, and a short slider that’s hard and cutter-like in shape and function. Once he returns at some point this spring, he’ll be working to regain his feel, but also to pound the zone more and work on mixing his pitches more effectively. He still has that mid-rotation, innings-eater upside, assuming anyone even remembers what that means at this point.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Seldom has there been a better fit between a player in the draft and the team that took him. Dollander was the best pitcher in college baseball as a sophomore, with a 2.39 ERA for Tennessee that was built on a 35 percent strikeout rate, 4 percent walk rate, and a wipeout slider that looked like it would put him in play for the first pick in 2023. Alas, he changed his grip on the slider to try to make it more of a sweeper — I have heard he did it, Tennessee’s coaches did it, some third party told him to do it, and don’t really know the truth — making it not just worse but often ineffective, as he’d go entire starts without getting a swing and miss on it. The good news is that he’s aware of it and, with the Rockies’ help, the plan is to restore his 2022 slider, which would make him a steal — the sort of high-end starter the team needs, someone who’s probably a No. 2 starter with some small but non-zero chance of becoming an ace. He’s 93-97 mph and fills up the zone with it, touching 99, and if there’s a silver lining to the loss of his slider last year it’s that he used his changeup more, improving his feel to the point where it’s a solid-average third pitch for him. The slider was a legit 70 in 2022, with very tight rotation and late downward break, the opposite of sweep — and hey, I know the “sweeper” is all the rage right now, but traditional sliders are people too, right? I’m very hopeful that he’ll go out to High A to start the year and dominate between that out pitch and the control he’d shown prior to 2023, getting to Double-A Hartford by midyear and banging on the door of the big leagues.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Nastrini went to the White Sox in the trade that sent Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly to the Dodgers, a tremendous deal for the Sox that also netted them power-armed relief prospect Jordan Leasure. Nastrini was the Dodgers’ fourth-round pick in 2021 off a spring at UCLA where he walked 38 guys in 31 innings, a hell of a job by Los Angeles’ amateur scouting group, as he’s improved a ton since the moment he signed and projects as a fourth starter or better depending on how much further his command and control develop. He works with four pitches, sitting 93-96 mph with a plus changeup and plus slider. He has a pretty consistent delivery and traditional three-quarters arm slot that doesn’t give him a ton of deception; he gives up a lot of contact in the air, so there’s a risk he becomes homer-prone or at least prone to extra-base hits as he moves up the ladder. The fastball might be his worst pitch, but he has three other weapons to use, with the changeup possibly a 70 given how much trouble hitters have with it. It doesn’t have terrific action, but it looks just like the heater coming out of his hand, and hitters missed it more than half the time they swung at it last year. There’s still some relief risk as he walked about 11 percent of batters he faced last year and will have to work to limit hard contact. His 2023 season had more positives than negatives, however, and the odds of him remaining a starter went over 50 percent for the first time.

2023 Ranking: 24

A funny thing happened while Mead was working his way to the majors last year: The guy the Rays traded to acquire him, lefty Cristopher Sánchez, moved into the rotation and threw up a 2.2 WAR season for the Phillies, so now that trade doesn’t look as lopsided as it did when the Phillies dealt a top-100 prospect for a fringy reliever. Mead was hit by a pitch on his wrist at the end of April in Triple A, so while he did debut in the majors later in the year he didn’t show the consistent contact quality he’d shown in previous years, although his exit velocity did still peak at 108 mph in the majors. He looked rough defensively at third and second in the majors but didn’t grade out as badly as you’d expect by defensive metrics; I doubt he’ll ever be more than fringy at third, but if he’s just adequate there — no worse than 2-3 runs below average a year — the bat should play. Expect solid averages with a ton of doubles, low walk and strikeout rates, and probably more complaints about his defense than it actually merits.

2023 Ranking: 58

Arroyo had a so-so campaign as a 19-year-old in High A last season, hitting .248/.321/.427 in 119 games with a lot of contact (21 percent strikeout rate) but without any real progress in the quality of contact or his game power over 2022. He’s a bat-first prospect who can handle shortstop, flashing above-average range but grading out around average overall by other teams’ analysts, offering true switch-hit potential and the upside of 15 or so homers a year if he fills out as expected. He’s got a live bat with quick hands and handles fastballs well for someone who isn’t that strong yet, but he has trouble with spin on both sides of the plate, especially when he’s batting left-handed — that is, the more important side. He’s an above-average runner who has good instincts on the bases and should rack up 30 steals a year in the majors. It’s a lot more projection today than it seemed like a year ago, after the Reds added him in the Luis Castillo trade and he hit well in two stops in Low A. He needs to get stronger, to pick up breaking pitches more easily, and to at least get more consistency on defense. He’s also just 20 years old and ready to go to Double A, so his performance looks a lot better in context. The upside of an everyday shortstop and switch-hitter with a little pop is still there; I think he’s just further away from it than I thought he was last offseason.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Schultz was Chicago’s first-round pick in 2022, a local kid who’d missed much of that spring with mono but offered a ton of projection on velocity and his slider — not to mention the upside of a 6-9 lefty with great extension. The projection started to show up in 2023 as he often worked 93-96 mph with huge sink and tail along with a plus slider that, from his lower arm slot, makes him deadly to left-handed batters, with obvious comparisons to Chris Sale, who changed his hand position on his slider after signing and became, well, Chris Sale. There’s a ton of risk here between Schultz’s injury history and his size, so it’s maybe 50/50 whether he remains a starter. Schultz’s 2023 season ended in late August when he suffered a shoulder impingement, although he should be ready to go for spring training, and the history of 6-9 or taller pitchers in general is not great for health or command. You can see No. 1 starter upside, or top-end reliever potential, depending on his health and how his coordination improves as he fills out his huge frame.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Waldrep’s splitter was one of the best pitches in the draft last year, helping him rank third in Division I with 156 strikeouts, but he used the pitch too often and his overall line suffered a little, which may be how a guy who touched 99 mph with a bona fide out-pitch slid to the 24th pick in the draft. Atlanta grabbed him and, bucking every industry trend, had him throw 29 1/3 innings in pro ball in his debut, finishing with a single start in Triple A. The splitter is just sick — it looks like a fastball out of his hand, has good velo separation from the heater at 85-89, and has huge bottom to it, yanked downward by some invisible zombie hand coming out of the ground like in the “Thriller” video. It also finishes out of the zone too often to be his go-to pitch — it’s a chase pitch, and a great one, but that’s all, and he’ll need to use all four pitches together to be a big-league starter. He has a curve and slider, either of which would likely improve with use, as in college he wouldn’t finish them out front, while his fastball sits 95 but doesn’t have great ride or life. He may never have more than average control, so he’ll really have to mix the four pitches to keep hitters off balance and generate more swings and misses. If not, he’s an easy guy to move to the bullpen, where he could junk one of the breaking balls and would be fine using the splitter at a higher rate than he can as a starter.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Delauter missed 15 months with a broken foot he suffered in college in 2022, re-aggravating the injury while rehabbing. He didn’t make his pro debut until a year after the Guardians took him with the 16th pick in the 2022 draft. He’s only played in 57 pro games, plus 23 more in the AFL, but to his credit he’s hit at every level up through a six-game stint in Double A, even with an ugly swing that doesn’t look like it’ll produce power or even let him be consistently on time. He’s an excellent athlete who might be a plus runner at full health and definitely has a plus arm, with the potential for big defensive value in right field. He’s shown great feel for the strike zone everywhere he’s ever played, including his time at James Madison and a summer on Cape Cod, where he was one of just four regulars to walk more than he struck out. It is a really unfortunate swing, though; he opens his hips early and all but drags the bat to the zone that makes it look like he’s trying to scoop the ball with the bat head and poke it to right field. He hasn’t seen much velocity yet in pro ball, so he may not be tested until this year when he’s playing in Double A or Triple A. There’s real upside here with his defense and the contact skills he’s demonstrated, but the bad swing and injury history point to the downside risk that he’s just an extra outfielder. He reminds me some of Brett Jackson, another first-rounder with an awkward swing but great athleticism who hit everywhere he played until the majors.

2023 Ranking: Sleeper

Fernandez destroyed High A last year in just his second season in the U.S., as the Cuban outfielder signed in 2019 and debuted in 2021 in the DSL, finally seeing full-season ball in 2022 in the Cal League. In 2023, he hit .319/.355/.605 for High-A Spokane in 58 games, then struggled after a promotion to Double A, hitting .206/.262/.362 in the more pitcher-friendly Eastern League. He makes very hard contact and projects to 30-homer power in a neutral environment, while he has the easy plus arm to handle right field, although his range will probably be 45ish in either corner. It comes down to discipline, as he chases too many pitches out of the zone, and Double-A arms were able to exploit this with breaking stuff where A-ball guys weren’t. He’s a good enough bad-ball hitter to get away with expanding the zone a little, just not to the extent that he did after his promotion. There’s too much power and strength here to ignore, and the environments he’ll face in Triple A and the majors will help him even if he never gets past 45 plate discipline, with .300+ averages and 30 homers quite possible with Coors Field as his home park.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Lin barely cracked my top-20 Diamondbacks prospects last year, as he wasn’t throwing that hard (around 89-90 mph) and got inexperienced hitters out because he had such good offspeed stuff. He topped out in 2023 at 94, and the secondaries are still there, while he keeps adding and tinkering with his arsenal, throwing a true screwball (which already makes me a fan), a plus changeup, a curve, a slider, and now a cutter as well. He’s very athletic and fiercely competitive, fielding his position extremely well, and now that he’s got a big-league fastball it’s a lot easier to see him staying in the rotation. He doesn’t walk guys because he’s aggressive when he gets to 3-ball counts, but it’s 45 control right now as he gets a lot of chases on the secondaries. He dominated High A and moved up to Double-A Amarillo — an extreme hitter’s park — midseason, becoming homer-prone at home (6 HRA in 34 2/3 innings) but not on the road (1 HRA in 26 1/3 innings). Lin is going to face a lot of bias because he’s small (listed at 5-11, 160, but height don’t measure heart … or changeups) and because he’s from Taiwan, which so far has produced only two successful MLB starters, Chien-Ming Wang and Wei-Yin Chen. Neither of those is a real issue here — he’s got the weapons, the poise, the competitiveness, and the athleticism to start, and if he holds this stuff while improving his command and control, he has mid-rotation potential.

2023 Ranking: 21

Luciano started the year on the IL while recovering from a stress fracture in his lower back, finally got rolling after some time in Double A, then ended up in the big leagues and was mostly overmatched. He did hit the ball very hard in the majors, as he’s done everywhere when healthy, and he’s able to keep up with fastballs, but offspeed stuff was an issue even in Double A, and killed him at the next two stops — he went from a 30 percent strikeout rate in Double A to 35 percent in Triple A to 37 percent in the big leagues, which is all an argument that he should have stayed at Double A until he showed better non-fastball recognition. He’s also not a shortstop, and I think moving him to left field might allow him to focus more on developing the bat while also perhaps keeping him healthy. He’s still quite young, just 22 all season with barely 300 professional games on his resume, and he’s got a strong swing that’s geared for 25-30 homers. I never bought him as a shortstop, or really even a second baseman, but I thought the bat would be more advanced than this. He can still be an above-average regular if the Giants give him the time to develop his pitch recognition.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Eldridge was a two-way prospect in high school who was 91-95 mph off the mound but without an average second pitch, so his future always seemed to be in the batter’s box. He’s 6-7 and can show you the huge power that you associate with those taller guys, but unlike most hitters his size, he has a very short swing and there’s reason to hope he’ll be an outlier among his peers when it comes to contact rate. His technique is geared toward putting the ball in play rather than a dead-pull approach to show off his power, so he goes the other way comfortably and hits the ball very hard when he does so. He was bothered by an ankle injury for the latter half of the spring and wasn’t running that well even over the summer when the Giants moved him to right field from his high school position of first base, although I’d reserve judgment on his outfield defense until this season when we see him at full go. There’s definitely risk here, as the history of hitters 6-7 and up is not great because their size typically means they swing and miss too often; the exceptions have done it with huge power, like Aaron Judge and the late Frank Howard. Eldridge’s ceiling is one where the power comes, but he also maintains a higher contact rate than other lowercase-g giants because of the shape of his swing.

2023 Ranking: 62

Rushing was the Dodgers’ second-round pick in 2022, when they didn’t have a first-round selection. After signing, he hit .424/.539/.778 in 28 games in Low A — a small sample, sure, but early reports from pro scouts were of the “how did the Dodgers get this guy in the second round?” variety. The University of Louisville alum’s full-season debut was more of a mixed bag, as he moved to High A and hit .228/.404/.452 in 89 games, playing average defense with an average arm and working well with pitchers. The low average is a surprise for an ACC product in High A, as he wasn’t young for the level, and some of the concerns from his college days that he had trouble hitting velocity popped back up last year — he didn’t see a ton of big velo, but struggled against it when he did. On the plus side, he has a very disciplined approach with strong ball/strike recognition and a commensurately low chase rate, and he makes hard enough contact that his .276 BABIP may include some bad luck. The bar is low for an everyday catcher; if you can hit 20 homers and draw a bunch of walks with average defense, you may be able to start in the big leagues. I’m just a little more concerned about Rushing’s bat than I was a year ago.

2023 Ranking: 56

Jung was the 12th pick in the 2022 draft after two fantastic years hitting for Texas Tech. He did bring questions about his position and his unorthodox setup at the plate to pro ball, one of which I think has been answered. Jung starts with his hands way back and above his rear shoulder, which you’d expect to cause timing problems, but so far he’s at least shown he can make hard contact, with 28 homers between High A and Double A last year with solid (but not elite) exit velocities. He did show some holes after he moved to Double A, particularly missing fastballs up in the zone and sliders in and below it, which reawakened those concerns about his hand setup and timing, although the Tigers have some positive experience helping hitters simplify their swings (notably Parker Meadows) to reduce those concerns. Of more import is Jung’s need for a position — he’s heavy-footed, far more so than his brother Josh, and while his defense at second graded out well by some team metrics, he’s not very mobile and I don’t think he’ll ever offer much range. If he’s a 45 defender at second with this sort of 60-70 extra-base-hits-a-year profile, he’s an above-average regular. He still has those same two questions to answer this year in Double A, however.

2023 Ranking: 72

It was a lost year for Bleis in 2023, as he hit .230/.282/.325 in his first taste of Low A, but hurt his shoulder after 31 games and underwent season-ending surgery. He’d had previous subluxations in that shoulder, so the hope is the surgery will clear that issue up permanently and let him get back to hitting. He’ll show five tools, with 60 raw power and 55 speed that would allow him to stay in center long-term if he doesn’t lose speed as he fills out, and he has great bat speed that’s undermined by a poor approach and some extra movement before he gets the barrel going toward the zone. He’s looking fastball too often, so he struggled with pitch and ball/strike recognition in 2022 and his brief stint in 2023, chasing secondary stuff out of the zone more than he should, but that’s the sort of thing that only improves with playing time. I wrote last year that I wouldn’t “be shocked or too dismayed if he struggles early in Low A as an inexperienced 19-year-old,” and that did happen, but he never got a chance to make adjustments. There’s still high-average/25-homer potential in a center fielder here. Depending on his shoulder strength — he’s supposed to be full go for spring training, at least — and how much time he needs to shake off the rust, however, any progress might not come until later in the year.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Miller had a chance to go in the top half of the first round in 2023, but a broken hamate bone took him out for almost the entire spring, so he had to make up some ground in pre-draft workouts and ended up going to the Phillies at pick No. 27. He has big power already even with a fairly simple swing, impressing multiple teams in those workouts with how the power played in big-league stadiums, although the sense is that the power tool may be ahead of the hit tool. He likes the ball middle-away so he can get his arms extended, and he had difficulty with pitches on the inner-third when he was playing in games the previous summer. He played shortstop in 18 games after the Phillies signed him, but he’s going to be a third baseman, as he doesn’t have close to the agility or range for short while his hands and arm would play well at third. By spring training he’ll be a year off the hamate injury and should have his full strength back, at which point we’ll see if the Phillies got a steal — maybe an everyday third baseman with 25-30 homer power.

2023 Ranking: Sleeper

I don’t typically put pure relief prospects on my top 100; the exceptions have been, well, exceptional, most recently Josh Hader, who has produced over 11 WAR in six-plus seasons in the majors. Misiorowski is working as a starter now and should continue to do so, but the delivery screams reliever, as he can’t repeat it and won’t get close to average command the way it all works now. He also boasts one of the best two-pitch combinations in baseball, with his fastball and slider at least 7s and you could make an argument either or both is an 8. He can touch 100 mph and regularly works in the upper 90s with high spin and excellent carry on the pitch. The slider has tilt, angle, depth, and tight rotation, running 84-90 when I saw him in a start in May. He doesn’t have a viable pitch for lefties yet, and the delivery, with visible effort, a high elbow, and a head-whack at release, is not conducive to strike-throwing or durability; he walked more than 13 percent of batters on the whole in 2023, including 15 percent in his final stop in Double A. The Brewers are handling him carefully, as he didn’t face more than 20 batters or throw more than 97 pitches in any outing last year. That is the right approach even if you think his future is in the bullpen, as he still needs to work on throwing strikes, figuring out the right weapon for lefties and maybe not throwing 100 percent on every pitch because his stuff moves so well. Multi-inning relief work is coming back into fashion, finally, and Misiorowski certainly has the potential to be a very good reliever in that role. I could see him posting a couple of 3-WAR seasons that way if his control improves.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

Schanuel was the 11th pick in the 2023 draft and became the first player from that draft to reach the majors when the Angels called him up on Aug. 18. He acquitted himself quite well in his major-league debut with a .275/.402/.330 line and more walks than strikeouts. Schanuel’s plate discipline is real, as he rarely chases out of the zone and hammers fastballs, so the question is whether he can get to more power from such a big frame. His hands start high above his head, but that doesn’t inhibit his timing, and he seems to get his hips and legs involved in his swing enough, yet so far it hasn’t resulted in either big in-game power or high exit velocities. He’s probably limited to first base as well, so he could have a Dave Magadan-like career even without more power output (Magadan produced 21.1 WAR and played 16 seasons), but if I’m the Angels I’m all about trying to get a 6-4, 220+ pound hitter to hit like one.

2023 Ranking: Ineligible

The worst thing you can say about Meyer is that he was a high school pitcher taken in the first round, and if you’ve read anything I’ve written in the last 10 years you probably know I’m going to say that is about as high-risk a category as you’ll find in the draft. He’s still just 19 and has to stay healthy the next few years even though he’s already throwing quite hard, but the pure stuff here is pretty impressive, with four pitches that you might grade out as plus depending on when you see him. He hit 101 mph in high school and worked up to 96 in his brief time in pro ball, showing a very high-spin breaking ball that’s his best pitch now along with a tight slider and a changeup that showed very well in the minors after he barely used it in the spring. He comes from a little below three-quarters and his fastball can ride flat up in the zone, so he’ll have to work more with his offspeed stuff and/or tighten up his command significantly. He’s still young and looks like he’s barely begun to mature physically, while on the mound he’s been able to out-stuff hitters and has to work on the other aspects of pitching, from command to sequencing to ancillary things like fielding his position. I had a scout call it a “top of the rotation look,” which sums him up well: This is what a future top-of-the-rotation starter might look like at age 19, although guys who look like Meyer does at age 19 do not always end up top-of-the-rotation starters.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Stewart was one of only two teenagers to walk more than he struck out in full-season ball last year — the other, Pittsburgh’s Jesus Castillo, slugged .251 on the season. Stewart was the Reds’ second pick, 32nd in the 2022 draft, a polished high school first baseman who needed to get stronger for more in-game power. The Reds moved him to third base, where the results have been passable, enough to think he can be a 45 defender there, although his value is still going to reside in his bat. He’s got real plate discipline, picking up balls/strikes as well as recognizing pitch types, and he’s hitting the ball harder already, topping 106 mph in the Florida State League with five of his 12 homers on the season going to the opposite field. He’s very selective, even when ahead in the count, hunting specifically for stuff middle-up he can drive, and he can get away with that because he so rarely whiffs with two strikes. If Stewart keeps getting stronger, and perhaps tries to pull a few more pitches, he’ll be an easy 20-homer guy with high OBPs, which makes him a solid regular at first and a borderline star if he can just stay at third base.

2023 Ranking: 86

Mauricio tore his ACL in winter ball, so he is likely to miss most, if not all, of the 2024 season, which is a shame on two levels — he had a shot at regular playing time in Queens, and he needs at-bats to keep developing. Even though he reached the majors last year, he remains an unfinished product on both sides of the ball. The ball comes off Mauricio’s bat much harder than you’d expect from his frame, but he has very strong wrists and generates a ton of bat speed, hitting a ball 117 mph in the majors and averaging just over 90 mph on his batted balls at the level. If he had any sort of plate discipline, he’d be a top-10 prospect, but he chases stuff out of the zone, especially offspeed, way too often, and can’t make up for it even with a decent rate of contact on those pitches. Major-league pitchers who can throw stuff just off the plate or just above/below the zone will have a field day with him until he tightens up his command of the zone — and that will only happen with more time in the batter’s box. He’s a natural shortstop but too erratic to play there in the majors. He looked promising at second base in the majors, and he could probably handle third if he got more time there, with only 22 professional games, a third between the minors and winter ball, in his career. He always had some volatility because of the lack of polish in his game, and now he’s losing up to a year of playing time, but I still hold out hope he can be an above-average regular at his peak — maybe just later than we’d otherwise thought.

2023 Ranking: 39

It was not the MLB debut Stone or the Dodgers were hoping for, as the team’s fifth-round pick from 2020 was hit hard in 31 innings, with major-league hitters all over his fastball and his supposed out pitch, his changeup, which was extremely effective all the way up through Triple A. The changeup wasn’t quite as devastating as it had been in the minors, but it appears he was tipping the pitch as well, allowing a 45 percent hard-hit rate with the pitch in the big-league stint. That in turn allowed hitters to look fastball, and his four-seamer, which was 93-95 mph but has never had a ton of movement, was close to useless. He’s a lot better than that, by his stuff and by his minor-league results, where his changeup would generate whiff rates near 50 percent or better at every level. He’s got at least an average fastball and slider with a changeup that looked like it’d be a 70 before major-league hitters deemed it somewhat unworthy of that grade. His debut was concerning, but I’m not giving up on his promise after such a small sample.

2023 Ranking: Just missed

Gonzalez went to the Twins in the January trade that sent Jorge Polanco to Seattle, the one significant prospect heading to Minnesota in that swap. Gonzalez offers some real upside with the bat if he can stop swinging at everything within a half-mile of the strike zone. He’s up there to do damage and has such good hand-eye coordination and feel for the barrel that he can hit pitches anywhere in the zone and, to some extent, just outside of it, so he swings early and often. He mashed in Low A, hitting .348/.403/.530 with just a 13.7 percent strikeout rate. When he reached High A, however, pitchers exploited his tendency to chase outside the zone, and he slipped to .215/.290/.387 — still showing power and hard contact, but also swinging at more than a third of non-strikes he saw. His contact quality improved last year over 2022, and he did hit for more power (ISO .147 to .178), although that has to continue to improve so he can get to that 25+ homer range, as he’s a below-average runner and will be limited to a corner outfield spot. There’s above-average upside here given the pure hit ability and potential for 60 or better power; with his defensive limitations and the odds that he’ll never walk 50 times in a season, though, he has to get there to be more than an extra outfielder.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Meadows reached the majors last year and gave a pretty good indication of the kind of player he’ll be in a larger sample — plus defense in center, plus speed, some power, some walks, enough swing and miss to keep him from being a star. A second-round pick in 2018, Meadows — the younger brother of former Tigers outfielder Austin Meadows — had big tools as a high schooler but had a huge hitch in his swing that made it hard for him to get to the ball on time, and he had OBPs below .300 for his first three seasons in pro ball. The Tigers helped him get rid of the big hitch before 2022 and he’s been a different hitter since then, with a .340 OBP across the past two seasons thanks to much better results on balls in play along with a small bump in his walk rates. He’s every bit of 6-5 and has a big strike zone, so there’s going to be some swing and miss, but he doesn’t chase excessively and he makes enough contact in-zone to get to a .240ish average and 15-20 homers a year. His glove and arm were worth 5 runs above average by Statcast last year in less than a quarter of a season, and I believe he’s going to be worth +10 or more if he gets to play 150 games out there this year. Big velocity might end up his main weakness and the obstacle to him becoming a 4+ win player; the defense gives him a great foundation and even if he punches out 30 percent of the time, something he’s never done in the minors, he’d still be a soft regular with the other tools he brings to the table.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

The Yankees signed Arias in January 2022 for a $4 million bonus, their largest bonus since they signed Jasson Domínguez in 2019 for $5.1 million, which was the largest bonus the team has ever given to an international amateur free agent. Arias may not be from Mars, but he turned in a very strong stateside debut last year, hitting .267/.423/.505 in the Florida Complex League last year as an 18-year-old with a 22 percent strikeout rate, well below the league average of 27 percent. It’s outstanding bat speed for an 18-year-old, especially from the left side, where his hands go from 0 to 60 in a flash, although I worry that he’s got a bit of a grooved, uphill swing that’s going to prevent him from squaring up the ball as often as he should. He’s an easy plus runner who should stay at shortstop, with a plus arm that plays up even above that because he’s got such a quick transfer and release; there’s some question of whether his body will stay lithe enough for the position, although the consensus leans toward not just remaining at short but becoming an above-average one. He’s farther from the majors than some of the Yanks’ more famous prospects, but other than Domínguez he may offer the most upside between offense and defense of anyone in the system.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

I guess it wouldn’t be a top-100 without at least two Dodgers catching prospects on it. Liranzo is their latest phenom behind the plate, a switch-hitter who hit .273/.400/.562 in Low A last year with a 26.7 percent strikeout rate, better from the left side, with power either way. He’s got a big frame with plus bat speed already. He’s likely to end up with 30+ homer power as he gets ever stronger. He will have to work to stay agile enough behind the plate, where right now he’s a work in progress, showing enough aptitude even though he’s not very fluid in his actions when receiving or blocking. If he were a sure-thing catcher, he might be a top-50 prospect because the power is real and he’s got an idea at the plate. He’ll move to High-A Great Lakes this year, and the Midwest League is a lesser hitters’ environment than the Cal League, so we’ll get a better read on how advanced his approach is along with seeing how the catching progresses. The high-walks, high-power upside in a switch-hitting catcher could make him shoot up this list in a year.

2023 Ranking: Unranked

Gilbert was Houston’s first-round pick in 2022 out of the University of Tennessee, then headed to the Mets in the Justin Verlander trade this past July along with power-hitting prospect Ryan Clifford. Gilbert’s the more advanced player of the two and took off after the trade, hitting .325/.423/.561 for Double-A Binghamton after scuffling for the Astros’ Double-A affiliate, Corpus Christi, the previous two months. Those struggles are probably just noise but did end up changing how his season looked overall — especially against lefties, where he had a decent platoon split in the first half but ended the year with a slightly higher OPS against southpaws. Gilbert’s a 55 or 60 defender in center, depending on who you ask, with an easy plus arm — he was a two-way player in high school — that would allow him to move to right, where he should be a 65 or 70 defender if he has to do it. He’s a hitter with a little pop, the opposite of the trend towards power-over-hit guys, and that’s even with his occasional tendency to try to pull pitches he should just go with rather than sacrificing some hit for power. He’s been a fan favorite already in the minors for his all-out style of play, which I expect to carry over to the majors when they see his 5-9 frame flying all over the field. At worst, he’s a fourth/platoon outfielder who can play all three spots, but after that strong finish I feel much better about him hitting lefties enough to play every day and hit .280-.300 with a walk rate over 10 percent and 15ish homers a year, whether that’s as an above-average defender in center or an easy plus one in right.

(Photo illustration by Sean Reilly / The Athletic: From left to right Paul Skenes / Chris Bernacchi/Diamond Images via Getty Images; Jackson Holliday / Justin Berl / Getty Images; Jackson Chourio / David Durochik / Diamond Images via Getty Images; Ethan Salas / Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)

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Stark: 5 things we learned from the Baseball Hall of Fame election https://usmail24.com/baseball-hall-of-fame-election-takeaways/ https://usmail24.com/baseball-hall-of-fame-election-takeaways/#respond Wed, 24 Jan 2024 23:11:13 +0000 https://usmail24.com/baseball-hall-of-fame-election-takeaways/

COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. — There were Adrián Beltré and Joe Mauer. This was their first Hall of Fame election. They won’t need a second. On Tuesday, they became baseball’s newest first-ballot Hall of Famers. And that stamps them as baseball royalty, connected forever to this special stamp of greatness. Beltré reeled in 95.1 percent of the […]

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COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. — There were Adrián Beltré and Joe Mauer. This was their first Hall of Fame election. They won’t need a second. On Tuesday, they became baseball’s newest first-ballot Hall of Famers. And that stamps them as baseball royalty, connected forever to this special stamp of greatness.

Beltré reeled in 95.1 percent of the vote. That’s the same percentage as a guy named Babe Ruth. If he ever needs to impress people at a party over the next 40 years, you think Beltré can get some mileage out of that little tidbit?

Mauer’s margin wasn’t quite that hefty, at 76.1 percent. That would be a landslide in the New Hampshire primary. In this election, he cleared the 75 percent bar by just four votes.

Nevertheless, he and Beltré made this the first election in which two first-year position players got elected in the same year since 2018 (Chipper Jones and Jim Thome) — and only the second time since 2007 (Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr.).

On the other hand, there were Todd Helton and Billy Wagner. All the drama of this election night seemed to swirl around them. They were sure — and we were sure — it was going to be close. We were right about one of them anyway.

For those of us following along on Ryan Thibodaux’s indispensable Hall of Fame vote tracker, Helton went into election day looking as though he could be a coin flip. Instead, he wound up with a higher percentage than Mauer, garnering 79.7 percent. The Rockies have been playing baseball for 31 years. Before Tuesday, there had never been any such thing as a Hall of Famer who had spent his entire career as a Colorado Rockie. Not anymore.

Helton and Mauer are only the fifth duo of one-team players in the past half-century to get elected to the Hall by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America in the same election. Maybe you’ve heard of the others: Mariano Rivera (New York Yankees) and Edgar Martinez (Seattle Mariners) in 2019, Gwynn (San Diego Padres) and Ripken (Baltimore Orioles) in 2007, George Brett (Kansas City Royals) and Robin Yount (Milwaukee Brewers) in 1999, Johnny Bench (Cincinnati Reds) and Carl Yastrzemski (Boston Red Sox) in 1989, and Mickey Mantle and Whitey Ford (Yankees) in 1974. Cool group.

And then there was Wagner. After nine elections into his time on the ballot, he’s still trying to stagger up this mountain. In his first year on the ballot, in 2016, he barely cleared 10 percent, and 17 players on that ballot got more votes than him. This time around, he was up to 73.8 percent — and only Beltré, Mauer and Helton tallied more votes. But 73.8 percent wasn’t enough to get him to the summit. So he will be back next year.

He might want to know that, just in the past eight elections, we’ve had three players elected in their 10th and final ride on this Hall of Fame roller coaster: Tim Raines in 2017, Martinez in 2019 and Larry Walker in 2020. Even in the heartbreak of missing nine in a row, there is always hope.

But with Wagner missing election by five votes and Mauer making it by four, this became only the third election in which two players were this close to getting elected and only one of them made it. The others: 1947 (Lefty Grove, in by two, and Pie Traynor, out by two) and 2017 (Pudge Rodríguez, in by four, Trevor Hoffman, out by five).

Finally, there was Gary Sheffield. It was his 10th and final season on this ballot. The good news is, he trampolined from 55.0 percent last year to 63.9 percent this year — the second-largest bump of anyone in this field (behind only Carlos Beltrán). The bad news is, he’s out of time with this group of voters, the baseball writers.

It might brighten his mood to know that for the first 85 years of Hall of Fame voting, every player who reached that high a percentage eventually was elected by some version of the Veterans Committee. It might not brighten his mood to know that Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling broke that streak in 2022. Will a future committee view Sheffield similarly to those guys or as a feared masher who pounded 509 home runs? Hey, ya got me.

But either way, every Hall of Fame election offers us lessons in what just happened and what it all means. We now know who will be on that stage July 21 on Induction Day in Cooperstown. So here come Five Things We Learned from the 2024 Hall of Fame election.

Baseball Hall of Fame 2024 voting

Player Votes Percent

Adrián Beltré

366

95.1

Todd Helton

307

79.7

Joe Mauer

293

76.1

Billy Wagner

284

73.8

Gary Sheffield

246

63.9

Andruw Jones

237

61.6

Carlos Beltran

220

57.1

Alex Rodriguez

134

34.8

Manny Ramirez

125

32.5

Chase Utley

111

28.8

Omar Vizquel

68

17.7

Bobby Abreu

57

14.8

Jimmy Rollins

57

14.8

Andy Pettitte

52

13.5

Mark Buehrle

32

8.3

Francisco Rodriguez

30

7.8

Torii Hunter

28

7.3

David Wright

24

6.2

1. Adrián Beltré hits the Brett/Schmidt/Chipper stratosphere


Adrián Beltré is headed to Cooperstown after receiving more than 95 percent of the vote. (Bob Levey / Getty Images)

Adrián Beltré may not be the answer to the question: Who’s the greatest third baseman in history? But he sure came close to being the answer to the question: Who’s the greatest third baseman in history at collecting Hall of Fame votes?

George Brett has held that record for 25 years. But Beltré gave him a run, winding up with the fourth-best percentage by any third baseman in the history of this election.

VOTE PERCENTAGE PLAYER, YEAR

98.2

George Brett, 1999

97.2

Chipper Jones, 2018

96.5

Mike Schmidt, 1995

95.1

Adrián Beltré, 2024

92.0

Brooks Robinson, 1983

91.9

Wade Boggs, 2005

Beltré appeared on all but two of the ballots that were revealed by voters before election night. He faded among the private voters. But he still wound up only 19 votes away from joining Mariano Rivera in the 100 Percent Club. Back in his day, Brett missed by nine (in a year with about 100 more voters). Chipper missed by 12. Schmidt missed by 16.

For most of Beltré’s career, you would never have expected him to be hanging in that company. But here in 2024, we live in a very different age, with a very different electorate.

First off, would it shock you to hear we’ve never witnessed more groupthink? Yeah, imagine that. But never have more voters stared at the same wins above replacement charts. And (possibly not in this order) never have more voters been wary of social media vote-shaming. So it’s no mystery how it happens.

But beyond that, there’s another important reason: Modern voters are just younger and more connected to the modern game.

You can thank the folks at the Hall for that change. After the ranks of eligible voters began approaching 600 — including dozens who had long since stopped covering baseball — the Hall rewrote the rules for 2016 and lopped more than 100 inactive writers, including many old-school voters (and thinkers), off the list.

So now, if you haven’t covered baseball in the last 10 years, you no longer get a vote. Does anyone miss that crowd that wouldn’t vote for anybody on the first ballot, whether it was Willie Mays or Willie Bloomquist? Thought so!

That’s a huge reason for Beltré’s vote total. But the other reason is obvious: Name any logical reason not to vote for him, unless you’re casting some kind of protest vote.

Then again, what’s a reasonable protest that leaves this guy off your ballot? Did you once vow that you’d never vote for a player unless he let his teammates touch his head? Hey, whatever!

C’mon, man. How many third basemen are walking around our planet with 3,100 hits and five Gold Glove Awards? Precisely one: Adrian Beltré. I’m glad most of us were smart enough to honor that.

2. We underestimated the pull of Mauer power


Joe Mauer, first-ballot Hall of Famer. Not many Hall watchers would have predicted that before this election cycle. (Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)

Raise your hand if you predicted two months ago that Joe Mauer was going to collect the second-highest first-ballot vote percentage of any catcher ever. Right. Thought so. I’m pretty sure not even the Mauer family would have made that bet.

But when the ballot dust settled, that’s where we were. Here’s the stunning modern-day leaderboard (from the past 55 elections).

PCT  CATCHER YEAR YEARS TO ELECTION

96.4

Johnny Bench

1989 

1

76.1

Joe Mauer 

2024

1

76.0

Pudge Rodriguez

2017

1

67.2

Yogi Berra  

1971

2

66.4

Carlton Fisk

1999

2

57.8

Mike Piazza

2013

4

If you look closely at that list, you’ll detect a few unfathomable subplots lurking inside those vote totals. Such as …

• Could it possibly be true that the great Yogi Berra wasn’t a first-ballot Hall of Famer? Nope, he’s not! Because 1971.

• Is it also possible that only two catchers in history — Bench and Pudge — had been elected on the first ballot before Mauer came along? Yep! If you don’t count DH, a thing that didn’t exist for nearly a century of Major League Baseball, catcher had the fewest of any position … until now.

FEWEST FIRST-BALLOT HALL OF FAMERS

DH — 2
Catcher — 3
First base — 3
Second base — 3
Center field — 5

So there was plenty of voting history to suggest that Mauer wasn’t a lock to cruise into the Hall on the first ballot. He also had a career that gave us reason to wonder how much the back end of that career — five seasons as a non-thumper kind of first baseman who averaged just eight homers a year — would hurt him in Year 1.

Turns out, though, those first-base years were a factor with only one small sliver of this voting population: first-time voters. The amazing Jason Sardell, who breaks down this voting in as precise detail as anyone I know, was the first to point this out to me.

Mauer among first-time voters — 77 percent
Mauer among returning voters — 85 percent

(Source: Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Tracker)

First-time voters began covering baseball more recently than the rest. So they would also be the voters most likely to have seen only Mauer’s first-base years with their own eyes — as opposed to his 10 seasons as one of the best-hitting catchers of all time. But fortunately for him, those first-time voters represented only about 6.5 percent of all voters who made their ballots public before election day (13 of 201), according to Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Tracker.

So whaddaya know. Joe Mauer is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. And that’s just one more reminder that “one” has always been his magic number.

No. 1 pick in the draft … one team played for (the Minnesota Twins) in his whole career … one metropolis played in, in his whole baseball-playing life (the Twin Cities) … and now the greatest honor of them all:

One election … one trip to Cooperstown coming right up!

3. Helton’s road to the finish line got a bit rocky


Todd Helton was elected in his sixth year on the ballot, but his vote patterns this time defied expectations. (Brian Bahr / Allsport)

Hall of Fame voting will always have an element of mystery to it. That’s a beautiful thing for election-night drama fans. It’s not quite that beautiful a thing for the actual humans who have to sweat out that drama.

Todd Helton could tell you all about it. He rolled into this election as the top returning vote-collector, at 72.2 percent last year. All he needed to add was about a dozen votes, and he was in. That’s all!

The history of modern Hall of Fame voting tells us that shouldn’t have been a problem. He shouldn’t have had to sweat out election night thinking he might be lucky to sneak in by just a vote or two.

Over the past 50 elections, 12 previous players had gone into a Hall of Fame election after attracting approximately 72 percent of the vote (or more) the year before. One was Jim Bunning, a polarizing candidate who actually lost votes the next year. How’d that work out for the other 11? Every one of them got elected. That’s how.

But that’s not all. For almost all of them, it wasn’t even close. On average, their vote totals jumped by 10.5 percentage points in those elections. Only three of them failed to get a bounce of at least 8 percentage points:

 YEAR PLAYER JUMP

1991

Gaylord Perry

5.1%

2003

Gary Carter

5.3%

2018

Trevor Hoffman

5.9%

So when you’re this close, history tells us there’s always an election-time surge coming. But as Helton learned Tuesday night, in Hall of Fame voting, past is not always prologue.

Helton’s “jump” — wound up at 7.5 percentage points. Only Gaylord Perry (plus-22) added fewer votes than Helton in the year he got elected. Helton was only plus-26. Very odd.

Helton’s “margin” — that 4.7 percentage points he made it by was the third-smallest ever among this group. In fact, before Helton, the only members of that club above who didn’t wind up at 80 percent or higher were Perry (77.2 percent) and Carter (78.0). In terms of total votes, Perry was the closest call, clearing the 75 percent bar by just nine votes.

Scott Rolen made it by only five votes last year, but still picked up 48 votes compared with the year before. Helton, meanwhile, got that 26-vote bump. And that felt small considering that only a year ago, he added a whopping 76 votes — which was more than the total number of votes he was getting as recently as 2019 (70). So it’s safe to say that coming into this year, he didn’t have The Look of a guy who was about to stall at the finish line.

But crazy things can happen in these elections. So what happened in his case? Let’s break it down this way:

The ballot got crowded again — Where did Helton’s big gain come from over the previous four elections? That part is no mystery. When he debuted in 2019, he had to compete with eight players who eventually got elected. But once they were out of the way, it cleared space for a couple of hundred voters who just didn’t have room to check Helton’s name in those early years.

So in only four years, he zoomed from 70 votes to 281, and from 16.5 percent to 72.2 percent. But then …

After a three-year run that produced only one first-ballot Hall of Famer (David Ortiz), this year’s ballot gave us Beltré and Mauer, plus Chase Utley and David Wright. So you can guess what happens in years like this: The more crowded the ballot, the less likely it is that “small Hall” voters add a player like Helton after not voting for him in the past – and on the Hall tracker, we’ve even seen some of those voters drop Helton after voting for him last year.

So that’s part of this. But also …

Coors Field is still a thing — How naïve were we to think that once Larry Walker got elected in 2020, it meant that Cooperstown’s Curse of Coors was finally dead? Wrong! Now we know, thanks to the Helton election returns, that The Curse lives on — at least with some voters.

Is it possible that no longtime Rockie will ever make it to 80 percent? Maybe it is. We should remember, first off, that it took Walker until his final year on the ballot to get elected, and even then he only made it by six votes. So 93 of the 397 voters that year were still “no’s” on him.

But here’s another surprise, uncovered by fantastic research from Anthony Calamis, who works with Thibodaux on the Hall tracker. It turns out Helton has had a tough time drawing votes from writers who did vote for Walker.

Of the first 216 ballots made public this year, 26 were longtime voters who did not vote for Helton — and were also voters in 2020. Stunningly, 42 percent of them (11 of 26) voted for Walker in 2020 but not for Helton this year.

Helton made up some of that shortfall by collecting votes from six of 21 returning voters who were not Walker voters. But does it surprise you that there isn’t nearly total overlap of those Walker/Helton voters? It surprised me — and it’s a big reason Helton’s election night was filled with more drama than we once would have expected.

Once the ballot smoke cleared, though, Todd Helton was a Hall of Famer — forever. And someday, no one will care that he had to sweat out every second of election day.

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‘Could you imagine?’ How a near-trade and leaning into joy shaped Todd Helton’s legacy

4. Billy Wagner is the new Trevor Hoffman


Next election will be Billy Wagner’s final year on the writers’ ballot. (Mike Fiala / AFP via Getty Images)

It’s a good thing, at times like this, that Billy Wagner spent a decade and a half as a big-league closer — because nobody knows better than him that the last out is always the hardest to get. So it’s only fitting that Wagner’s journey to the Hall of Fame would follow the same script.

He missed election last year by a mere 27 votes. But if he thought that meant the hard part was over, well, ho ho ho. ’Fraid not.

While Beltré, Mauer and Helton celebrated Tuesday night, Wagner was still five votes short. So he’s down to one last shot, in his 10th and final spin on this ballot, to clear that Cooperstown bar.

I’m sure he’s looking for reasons to believe right now. So I’ll helpfully give him one, just by dropping this name:

Trevor Hoffman.

What do they have in common, aside from their late-inning job description? Here goes:

LAST 3 ELECTIONS

Hoffman 

2016 — 67.3 percent (34 votes short)
2017 — 74.0 percent (5 votes short)
2018 — 79.9 percent (elected by 20 votes)

Wagner 

2023 — 68.1 percent (27 votes short)
2024 — 73.8 percent (5 votes short)
2025 — (Elected? Stay tuned!)

I should point out, in the interest of clarity, that those were Hoffman’s first three years on the ballot whereas they would be Wagner’s eighth, ninth and 10th years. But that distracts us from the moral of this story:

There are always going to be voters who are allergic to throwing a vote at any closer not named Mariano Rivera.

So even Hoffman, the first member of the 600 Saves Club, needed more than one election to find those last three dozen votes to get elected. And now Wagner is the one hunting for those last few votes, even though he owns the best career ERA, WHIP and strikeout rate of any left-handed pitcher in the modern era.

Are those votes going to be there next year? You’d think so. But there’s reason to worry because, in other ways, Hoffman and Wagner are not so alike at all. If you dig deep enough, you can find the telling voting trends that blew up Wagner’s plans for a Hall of Fame victory party this year.

It would seem logical — to me at least — that the segment of voters Wagner would have the least trouble with are those who had once voted for other closers not named Mariano. Do we agree on that?

But here’s a shocker: That hasn’t been the case. Adam Dore, who works with Thibodaux on the Hall of Fame tracker, found 55 voters heading into this election who had never voted for Wagner — but had once voted for Hoffman or Lee Smith. And how many of those 55 had flipped and added Wagner to their 2024 ballots at last look? Surprisingly, it was just seven.

As of Tuesday afternoon, more than half of those voters still hadn’t revealed their ballots for this year. So it’s possible that Wagner was added on some of those ballots in the final voting. Plus Wagner had made up some of that ground because, at last look, 20 voters were checking his name who didn’t vote for Hoffman in 2018.

Nevertheless, this helps us understand why even a closer as historically significant as Billy Wagner could have so much trouble winning that scavenger hunt for 30 more votes. If even the Trevor Hoffman/Lee Smith voters aren’t lining up to vote for him, this was always going to be harder than it looked.

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How a broken arm — and an unbroken spirit — took Billy Wagner to the doorstep of the Hall

5. Coming in 2026: Carlos Beltrán’s induction day?


Carlos Beltrán appears on track to be elected in two years. (Bob Levey / Getty Images)

I know we only arrived in 2024 like 20 minutes ago. But it’s never too early to start dreaming about Induction Weekend 2026.

OK, maybe for you it is. But not around here, because Hall of Fame elections aren’t only interesting at the top of the ballot. It’s down in the next tier that we start getting clues about what’s ahead. And you know what’s almost certainly ahead for Carlos Beltrán, based on his 2024 vote totals?

A Hall of Fame induction speech!

Beltrán debuted on the ballot last year with 46.5 percent, then jumped to 57.1 percent this year. So of all the top runners-up this year who weren’t Billy Wagner, he emerged from a loaded field better-positioned than anyone else to get elected once the ballot gets less crowded in a couple of years.

What about Andruw Jones, you ask? Yes, he ended up with more votes than Beltrán as he moved up to 61.6 percent. But we’ll circle back to him momentarily.

So why does Beltrán look like a Hall of Fame lock? Because that 10.6 percentage point jump is telling us something. Nobody on the ballot added more votes since last year than him. Isn’t that a sign that a large chunk of voters wanted to wait a year to see how their brethren handled a central figure in the 2017 Astros’ trash-can-lid chorus? Seems like it.

Or maybe those voters opted to withhold a vote for him in Year 1 but then treated him like a “normal” candidate in Year 2. Either way, if you’re not dinging Beltrán for being a nefarious Astro, then his “normal” Hall of Fame credentials are obvious.

One of the greatest center fielders of modern times … one of the greatest switch hitters of the past half-century … one of the greatest postseason difference-makers in the history of his sport. That guy is a Hall of Famer. So why can we safely project that there’s a Cooperstown speech in his future?

Over the past 50 elections, we’ve seen five other players debut on the ballot at 40 percent or higher — and then jump by at least 10 percentage points the next year. Guess what they all have in common?

PLAYER  YEARS JUMP LATER ELECTED?

Jeff Bagwell

2011-12

41.7% to 56.0%

Yes

Ryne Sandberg

2003-04

49.2% to 61.1%

Yes

Barry Larkin

2010-11

51.6% to 62.1%

Yes

Fergie Jenkins

1989-90

52.3% to 66.7%

Yes

Catfish Hunter 

1985-86

53.7% to 68.0%

Yes

Now maybe we’re reading this wrong. Maybe Beltrán will never be fully treated as a “normal” candidate. Maybe there will always be a cap on the number of votes that are out there for a player who makes some of these voters hear trash cans banging in their heads. And maybe that cap sits at somewhere under 75 percent.

But as the above chart shows, this was a big year-over-year jump for a player like him. So, until proven otherwise, let’s assume this one means what all those other jumps meant.

Is it a little too soon to start looking ahead to 2026 when Induction Weekend 2024 is still six months away? Of course it is. First we can look forward to 2025, with Ichiro, CC Sabathia, Félix Hernández, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler, Troy Tulowitzki and more debuting on next year’s ballot. But then comes 2026, which looms as The Year to Watch.

It’s a year with no obvious first-ballot attractions. So that would seem to leave an opening for Beltrán to fill the vacuum. But what about Jones, who would be in his Year 9 cycle then?

His future seems harder to project. Remember that as recently as 2019, he was getting just 32 votes — four fewer than Sammy Sosa. Then came four consecutive years of big gains that took him from under 8 percent to over 58 percent.

But in this election, that Jones Acela train stopped chugging. He inched forward from 58.1 percent last year to 61.6 percent this year. That’s the smallest jump by anyone in the upper tier of this ballot. So it’s fair to wonder whether, after flipping nearly 200 “no” votes to yes in four years, he can now flip those last 62 voters he needs to make it to the plaque gallery.

Sorry, I’m not ready to make that prediction yet. But I’m the same guy who once predicted Bonds and Clemens were going to get elected someday. So how much certainty is there about any of this? About as much as trying to predict who’s going to win the 2026 World Series.

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A look ahead at the 2025 MLB Hall of Fame ballot: Ichiro, Pedroia, Sabathia and more


Hall of Fame ballot columns from The Athletic

• Stark: My 2024 Hall of Fame ballot — how I voted and why

• Rosenthal: Why Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley are both on my Hall ballot

• Kepner: Explaining my Hall ballot — a celebration of greatness

• Nine more The Athletic staffers reveal their Hall ballots


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Weaver: Hall of Famer Adrián Beltré’s journey to joyful abandon felt like magic

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Jim Leyland, Hall of Fame manager: 4 things we learned from the Contemporary Era election

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A distinguished dozen: Saluting the 12 newcomers to the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot

(Top image: John Bradford / The Athletic; Photos: Joe Mauer: Brace Hemmelgarn / Getty Images; Adrián Beltré: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images; Todd Helton: Doug Pensinger / Getty Images)

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Baseball Hall of Fame ballots: The Athletic’s voters explain their selections https://usmail24.com/baseball-hall-of-fame-ballots-2024/ https://usmail24.com/baseball-hall-of-fame-ballots-2024/#respond Thu, 11 Jan 2024 02:28:12 +0000 https://usmail24.com/baseball-hall-of-fame-ballots-2024/

Look, we get it. The Baseball Hall of Fame is a breathtaking idea. It’s a celebration. It’s a history lesson. It’s a pilgrimage. The museum in Cooperstown is home to heroes and memories and the posters on our walls. The very notion can fill a fan with wonder, and actually being there feels like going […]

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Look, we get it.

The Baseball Hall of Fame is a breathtaking idea. It’s a celebration. It’s a history lesson. It’s a pilgrimage. The museum in Cooperstown is home to heroes and memories and the posters on our walls. The very notion can fill a fan with wonder, and actually being there feels like going to church, and the Louvre, and Game 7 of the World Series, all at once.

And so, we care a great deal about who gets in and who does not. Passion and debate come with the territory. In press boxes and clubhouses and postgame hotel bars, we debate these decisions among ourselves. We get it.

You’re not going to agree with all of our ballots. You’re not supposed to. This process is built around people with different opinions coming to an overwhelming consensus without establishing a definitive answer to what makes a Hall of Famer.

This year, I’m serving as president of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, and I’m confident that the vast majority of my colleagues view Hall of Fame voting as one of the great privileges and responsibilities of the job. It’s an honor to play a role in the process. It takes 10 years of BBWAA membership to become a Hall of Fame voter, and last year 389 ballots were submitted. It takes a 75 percent majority for a player to be elected. Each ballot, therefore, is a tiny piece — a little more than one-quarter of 1 percent — of the final product. We all have our say, but no one person tips the scales. The process is built on differing opinions.

Here, we’ve collected some of the ballots — and some of the internal thinking — of many of The Athletic’s Hall of Fame voters. As you can see, we disagree even among ourselves. That’s the way it’s supposed to work. — Chad Jennings


Adrián Beltré is headed toward first-ballot election. But who will join him from this class? (Jesse Beals / Icon SMI /Icon Sport Media via Getty Images)

Daniel Barbarisi’s ballot

Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Joe Mauer, Billy Wagner

Looking at Mauer’s career numbers in aggregate — .306/.388/.439, 143 homers, 428 doubles, amassed over 923 games at catcher, 603 at first base, 310 at DH — it strikes me that he is one of those odd cases where the whole isn’t actually greater than the sum of its parts. The whole is excellent in its own right — those are good numbers. They’re even Hall of Fame numbers, with the right context. But they don’t fully do justice to the individual pieces that comprise it, those superlative seasons early in his career that couldn’t possibly have come from a man playing his position.

Remember what a unicorn he was? Back when he was hitting .328 and .347 and then finally .363 as a catcher, with respectable-to-excellent slugging through that whole period. Mauer and the obviously dissimilar stolen base threat Jason Kendall are always paired up a bit in my mind because they both reside in the neighborhood of “Guys who do things catchers aren’t supposed to do.”

And then he stopped doing so many of those things, and stopped being a catcher really at all, and without that all-important context for a while it felt like everybody had been robbed of watching something special; Mauer at first base was a pale imitation. Safe to say we didn’t understand head injuries well enough then, certainly still don’t, but it’s hard not to wonder how long he could have kept up that brilliant production from the catcher’s spot if injuries hadn’t been an issue.

Grading on a curve when it comes to injuries is tricky — who’s to say what this or that player could have been if it were not for some injury or another, and so it’s cleaner just to say what they actually were. But in Mauer’s case, that’s clear: a special hitter and excellent defensive catcher and pitch framer whose numbers put him among the very best to ever play a demanding position. To me, that’s an easy vote. My semi-informed guess is that Mauer doesn’t get in this year, but hopefully his time is coming soon, if only for a chance to remember how high the highs were.

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Twins great Joe Mauer on the cusp of Hall of Fame with surprising support


Daniel Brown’s ballot

Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Joe Mauer, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Chase Utley, Billy Wagner

As a fan of the Hall of Fame Tracker operated by Ryan Thibodaux (aka @NotMrTibbs on X), I’ve seen how his followers hate “drops” — voting for a player one year but not the next. The justifiably snarky joke is, “I guess (candidate) had a terrible year.” Har-har. For the record, I plan on voting for Bobby Abreu again next year, as he ranks 21st all-time in JAWS among right fielders, sandwiched between Hall of Famers Dave Winfield (20th) and Vladimir Guerrero (22nd). But I dropped Abreu this year as part of some strategic voting. There are players who need every checked box they can get to clear the 75 percent threshold (Sheffield, Wagner) and others who need to generate momentum as their years on the ballot wane. I surprised myself by voting so enthusiastically for Utley, but his JAWS ranks 12th all-time among second basemen and his WAR-7 (the sum of a player’s seven best WAR seasons) trails only Rodriguez among players on the ballot this year.


Steve Buckley’s ballot

Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Joe Mauer, Andy Pettitte, Gary Sheffield, Billy Wagner

The early returns suggest Beltrán won’t be getting into the Hall of Fame this year. That’s the bad news for those of us who believe he belongs in Cooperstown. The good news? He’ll likely get the call in the next two, three or four years. And he darned well better get that call, or else I’m going to be setting a world record for being a broken record.

As I wrote last year, and will do so again next year, Beltrán has already been punished for his role in the 2017 Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal. And the punishment was a whopper: Hired later to manage the New York Mets, he never even made it to spring training. When the sign-stealing verdict came in, Beltrán was out as manager of the Mets.

A.J. Hinch, former Astros manager, sat out during a one-year suspension and then was hired to manage the Detroit Tigers. Alex Cora, the former Astros bench coach who in 2018 managed the Red Sox to a World Series championship, also was handed a one-year suspension after he had already stepped away as Boston’s manager via one of those mutual-parting-of-ways deals.

But Red Sox upper management was practically in tears after making the announcement, all but telegraphing that Cora would be back in 2021. Which is exactly what happened.

Fair enough. Hinch and Cora paid dearly, even if, OK, their punishment was sitting out the 2020 pandemic season. By whatever means one measures their culpability and the ensuing punishments, they should have been invited to return.

And yet here’s Beltrán, stuck in Fly Creek — which is my way of saying he’s just outside of Cooperstown. (Fly Creek, N.Y., is only a few miles from Cooperstown.)


Carlos Beltrán amassed 70.1 WAR in his 20-year career. (Bryan Yablonsky / Getty Images)

Admittedly, we could remove the cheating scandal from the discussion and Beltrán would not be a Willie Mays-like Hall of Fame lock. But he combined power (435 home runs) with speed (312 stolen bases), won three Gold Glove awards, had 70.1 career WAR according to Baseball Reference (identical to Hall of Famers Gary Carter and Scott Rolen), and … let’s stop there because, again, it’s not stats that are keeping Beltrán out of the Hall. It’s bats, or whatever the Astros were using when they banged on trash barrels to pass along the other teams’ signals.

A year ago, I characterized the Astros’ sign-stealing caper as something you might have expected in a 1930s “Little Rascals” short but not in big-league baseball. This year I’m breaking up the routine by suggesting it was something you might have seen in a 1930s Marx Brothers movie, only with Harpo squeezing some kind of horn to relay the signals, and actor Edgar Kennedy as MLB commissioner Rob Manfred doing a slow burn after discovering the scheme. Now unless your name is Ben Mankiewicz of Turner Classic Movies, you probably have no idea what I’m talking about. But that’s the entire point: What the Astros did was something out of old-timey Hollywood slapstick, and it cheapened the game.

Beltrán paid a price for that. He shouldn’t have to pay for the rest of his life.


Marc Carig’s ballot

Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Joe Mauer, Gary Sheffield, Billy Wagner

My holdovers from last year include Sheffield, Beltrán, Jones, Helton, and Wagner, the ahead-of-his-time strikeout machine. Both Mauer and Beltré got my vote in their first year of eligibility. Beltré’s inclusion is about as clear-cut as it gets. And upon reflection so was Mauer’s. Though injury forced him to first base for the end of his career, Mauer dominated during his prime as a catcher. He racked up six All-Star appearances, three batting titles and an American League MVP — feats made more impressive because he did this all while still toiling behind the dish.

Not on the list for now: Chase Utley. With 1,885 hits, Utley finished short of the 2,000-hit mark that serves as a bit of an unofficial threshold for entry into Cooperstown. He also didn’t rack up the accolades (Gold Gloves, MVPs, etc.) that you’d expect from a Hall of Famer. That said, Utley’s career arc was atypical. Also, his peak seasons at second base were awfully impressive. Utley was just short of inclusion. Of course, I once felt that way about Jones, Helton and Wagner.

Over time, I reconsidered. I suspect that one day this might also be the case with Utley.

Two candidacies I am unlikely to reconsider: Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez. While other players have been the subject of whispers and speculation regarding steroid use, I put Rodriguez and Ramirez in a distinct category. Both served multiple suspensions for violating the league’s performance-enhancing drugs policy, and both ran afoul of those rules after the sport’s reckoning with PEDs. In my mind, this is different from mere whispers and speculation, or even being named in a report.


Chad Jennings’ ballot

Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Joe Mauer, Gary Sheffield, Chase Utley, Billy Wagner, David Wright

As a general rule, my Hall of Fame voting tends toward peak over longevity. Jones has always been an easy choice for me, and in the past I thought long and hard about Cliff Lee before deciding the peak was just too short to check his box. That personal preference probably explains much of my ballot this time around.

With research, Mauer became an easier choice than even I expected, and my real-time belief that Utley was a Hall of Famer was only reinforced looking back at his 10-year run of excellence. I covered Utley in Triple A in 2003 and ’04, but I shouldn’t have. He lost two years on the front end of his career because the Phillies inexplicably would not commit to him. His career numbers should speak for themselves more than they do.

Wright, though, was a hard one. His career was just so much shorter than the usual Hall of Fame standard. I left an open spot on my ballot for a week, reading, researching and asking friends for advice before I finally checked the box after seeing Thibodaux’s excellent Hall of Fame tracker had Wright far too close to falling off the ballot (if he received less than 5 percent of the vote). As with Abreu, I can’t say with absolute certainty that Wright belongs in Cooperstown, but I’m confident his inclusion would not diminish the Hall of Fame. For nine years, he was an essential part of the game, and he spent much of the next decade trying like hell to return from a back injury that just wouldn’t let up. When I take my sons to Cooperstown, I won’t hesitate to tell them his story alongside so many others who have been enshrined.

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Stark: One-and-done? No! Why David Wright deserves a long look on the Hall ballot


David O’Brien’s ballot

Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, Billy Wagner

When I checked a few days into January, there were four candidates named on at least 80 percent of writers’ Hall of Fame ballots that had been revealed, according to the tracker that Thibodaux and his staff update — Beltré, Helton, Mauer and Wagner, in that order.

I voted for each of those four along with Jones (10 consecutive Gold Gloves while averaging 34 homers and 103 RBIs per season from 1998-2007), Beltrán and Utley.

This will be my 30th year covering MLB as a beat writer, and I saw each of these players in his prime. That’s not to say I know more than any others who vote or more than attentive fans. But I know which players I saw who looked like future Hall of Famers, and by weighing my observations with copious statistics available on every player and also considering many discussions with players, coaches and managers about whom they believe to be Hall of Famers, I think I have a pretty good handle on which players are Cooperstown-worthy.

I do, however, have a stronger anti-performance-enhancing drugs stance than some voters, and that’s caused the most difficult situation of my time as a voter: leaving Gary Sheffield off my ballot. To be clear, I covered Sheffield as a beat writer both when he played for the Marlins and the Braves, and I rank him with Chipper Jones and Freddie Freeman as the greatest hitters on any teams I’ve covered in my career. (Ronald Acuña Jr. will move into that group if he keeps up his current career pace, and perhaps surpass them all.)

Sheffield has tremendous stats — first-ballot Hall stats — and I believe he would’ve been a Hall of Famer without PEDs. I also tend to believe him when he says that his use of steroid creams and whatnot while working out with Barry Bonds was more a dalliance — he says it was by accident, which I do find hard to believe — than the deep dive into PEDs that I’m convinced Bonds, Roger Clemens, Alex Rodriguez and others took. But the fact that Sheffield was connected to PEDs in a report is enough to make me not vote for him, and he’ll likely fall short of 75 percent this year in his 10th and final year on the ballot.

As much as I liked covering him and admired him as a player, I kept him off my ballot each year because if I made an exception for Sheffield, I can’t justify not doing so for some others. Then I’d also get caught up in weighing evidence and timelines and whether a player tested positive or used before or after MLB cracked down on PEDs. Fact is, using steroids without a prescription was illegal in the United States well before baseball created stiff penalties for it. Players always knew it was wrong to use them, that it was cheating, or else they would’ve done so openly. If they didn’t know it was cheating, they should have.


Gary Sheffield is expected to fall short in his final year on the ballot. (Mark Cunningham / MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Banging on trash cans as part of a team-wide sign-stealing scandal is one thing; Beltrán was great for nearly two decades before that 2017 season when the Astros cheated during home games of his age-40 season, the last and worst year of his career. He’s also paid a price, getting fired by the Mets before he’d managed even one game. But changing one’s actual body composition through banned substances, adding massive amounts of muscle early or midway through a career — or late in one’s career when it would normally be in decline — is another thing entirely.

It allowed Bonds, already a great player before steroids, to become an otherworldly offensive machine from his mid-30s through age 42, and to rewrite and completely distort the record books, setting artificially enhanced marks that blew away many once-hallowed records, and making most career and single-season power-hitting standards all but meaningless, since most of those records will never be broken. That’s just wrong, and steroid enhancement should not be rewarded with a Hall of Fame vote.

PED-implicated players are featured throughout the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown because it’s a museum and they were part of the game. And that’s fine. But it doesn’t mean they should have a bronze plaque there.


C. Trent Rosecrans’ ballot

Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Joe Mauer, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Chase Utley, Billy Wagner

This is my 10th Hall of Fame ballot as a voter, a significant number for a pair of reasons:

• Ten is the number of years it takes as an active BBWAA member to earn a Hall vote, which means I’ve been a member and voting as long as I was a member and not voting. That means I’m old. But it also means I’ve done this a time or two and I’ve more or less settled on a philosophy. On my first ballot, in 2015, I thought about trying to guess how others were voting and worried about the bottom of the ballot. That approach would mean I wouldn’t vote for no-doubt Hall of Famers Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson. The thought of not voting for them shaped my theory, which brings us to the other reason 10 is important …

• The rule of 10. The Hall of Fame limits voters to 10 selections per ballot. This is not a BBWAA rule, but a Hall of Fame rule. As a group, the BBWAA has asked to either take away the governor or increase the limit. Both requests were denied by the Hall of Fame. That means the rule of 10 stands and it has been a major factor in all 10 of my ballots.

So, with all that said, sorry Bobby Abreu. I believe Abreu is a Hall of Famer. I voted for him last year and in a perfect world, I’d have voted for him before (and after) then.

Alas, there are just 10 spots. The process I’ve settled on is to rank the players and draw a line at 10. I don’t necessarily vote for all 10, but all those who pass that imaginary Hall of Fame line, whether it is after two or 15, get (or would get, if there were no rule of 10) a check mark.

And so here we are. I’m not exactly sure where the Hall threshold should be, but I know Abreu is above the line and he’s No. 11 on my list, so no check mark.

Like when voting for MVP, it seems like the bottom of the list is more difficult than the top (well, once you make a decision on PEDs — my belief is all that I know is what happened on the field and the numbers reflect that. While I know some players used PEDs, I don’t know if their competitors did. In the end, MLB still counts the games they played in and their results. So, yeah, Rodriguez was the best player in the game; he gets a check from me, as does Ramirez, like Bonds and Clemens before them).

Anyway, there’s a strange line between Wagner — No. 10 on my list — and Abreu. It’s nearly impossible to compare a reliever and an outfielder, but that’s the exercise and in the end, there’s a leap of faith in my head that puts Wagner just ahead of Abreu, so Wagner gets a check and Abreu doesn’t. Yes, relievers and outfielders are apples and oranges, but the assignment is to compare apples, oranges, watermelons, grapes and the rest of the fruits. If neither player is elected this year, both should be on the ballot next year and it’s possible both get a check a year from now or neither do. That’s not because their careers have changed, but because the competition has. The Hall of Fame can stop this and employ the Binary Ballot (I’m not sure if Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has trademarked the idea of a simple yes/no vote for all players, but he should), but they haven’t yet and I don’t expect them to in the future.

That’s where we are today, as I make my (left-handed) check marks on a piece of white paper.

You can read all sorts of explainers on why a player deserves one of these check marks, and all are valid. I respect many points of view, but in the end, I lean on the theory that I am a voter, not a selector. I vote and I’d rather vote for someone worthy than not vote for someone worthy. Sadly, the rule of 10 takes that out of my hands. So, yeah, I’m sorry Bobby.


Bobby Abreu connects for one of his 2,470 career hits. (George Widman / Associated Press)

Eno Sarris’ ballot

Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Joe Mauer, Gary Sheffield, Chase Utley, Billy Wagner

In a sure-to-fail attempt at brevity, instead of addressing each of my votes, I thought I’d just bullet point the general thought process that begat the selections.

• I believe in being at least as inclusive as we’ve been for previous generations. We’ve voted in fewer and fewer players as a percentage of the whole with every passing decade — down from 2 percent to 3 percent of the whole to around 1.5 percent, as Mike Petriello showed on MLB.com in 2020 — and no matter what you think of the modern game and its training methods, it doesn’t sit right with me to think that players are worse now.

• I believe that before MLB had a testing policy in place in the 2004 season, league leadership was complicit in the steroid issue (the commissioner of the era, Bud Selig, is in the Hall of Fame, and that seems significant), and I’m more lenient toward players in that bucket. After testing was in place, players knew the stakes, and the numbers that I use to judge them are in question.

• I believe in wins above replacement as a framework because it’s unique in its ability to bring together all facets of the game into one number. I also consult Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system because it considers the relationship between a player’s peak abilities and their longevity. I don’t believe batting average or hits (alone) are of outsized importance within the context of all the things a player can do, and stats like RBIs and runs are typically influenced by the team’s situation.

• That said, I believe in offensive stats over defensive stats, since the former have been proven to be more reflective of true talent and the latter have only recently begun improving rapidly. A player like Jimmy Rollins — who was, by some measures, below average with the bat compared to the league when he was in it — has to have all-time elite defense to get my vote.

• I believe league trends in player usage are pushing us away from the volume that used to give players the chance to rack up the traditional benchmarks. A starting pitcher without 250 wins, a position player without 2,000 hits — I’m just not sure these things bother me as much as they might have bothered other members of the electorate in the past.

• I believe that relievers should be compared to relievers. In overall production, relievers pale against their counterparts. But if we ignore the position because of that fact, we dismiss a whole class of players who are currently throwing around half the innings in a given season.

• I believe that a player can be an elite accumulator. Consider someone like Abreu, who, as some people rightly point out, was never a top-five player in the league — in one season. But by being so consistently excellent from 1998 to 2004, he was actually the fifth-best player over that time frame. Posting matters.

Well, so much for being concise. I tried!


Keith Law’s ballot: Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Chase Utley


Hall of Fame ballot columns from The Athletic

• Rosenthal: Why Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley are both on my Hall of Fame ballot

• Kepner: Explaining my Hall of Fame ballot — a celebration of greatness

Note: Jayson Stark’s ballot column will be published next week. 


More Hall of Fame coverage

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A distinguished dozen: Saluting the 12 newcomers to the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot

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Jim Leyland, Hall of Fame manager: 4 things we learned from the Contemporary Era election

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Smoky hotel rooms, 10-minute tirades and fatherly advice: Jim Leyland’s managerial multitudes

(Top image photos: Joe Mauer: Larry Goren / ICON SMI / Corbis/ Getty Images; Adrián Beltré: Jeff Gross / Getty Images; Carlos Beltrán: George Gojkovich / Getty Images)

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The Weirdest Injuries in the 2023 MLB, From a Basketball Accident to a Toilet Misadventure https://usmail24.com/mlb-weird-injuries-2023/ https://usmail24.com/mlb-weird-injuries-2023/#respond Thu, 28 Dec 2023 16:10:07 +0000 https://usmail24.com/mlb-weird-injuries-2023/

Every year we’re amazed at the many creative ways baseball players can appear on the ever-popular Strange But True Injuries of the Year leaderboard. So we’d like to thank this year’s baseball crowd for… cooking breakfast… playing the piano… and doing their best to get in and out of their hotel bathroom safely. But you […]

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Every year we’re amazed at the many creative ways baseball players can appear on the ever-popular Strange But True Injuries of the Year leaderboard.

So we’d like to thank this year’s baseball crowd for… cooking breakfast… playing the piano… and doing their best to get in and out of their hotel bathroom safely. But you know what’s especially great? None of these accidents even topped this list!

Real? Yes really. So here they come: the strangest but truest injuries of 2023.

First Prize: Eye Confession!

We always award Injury of the Year bonus points to guys who manage to get hurt while already hurt. So to the help of Rays warrior Pete Fairbanks, who couldn’t even cover up the Giannis impersonation that got him into this mess.

When Fairbanks met with the Rays media delegation in June after returning from a stint on the injured list with a hip infection, he brought with him a blinding black eye — and one of the great How I Did This stories of the 21st century.

It turns out this can happen to you too, when you try to dunk your 3 year old in the pool.

“I pulled the pool basketball hoop on my face after dunking a three-year-old,” Fairbanks admitted, “to teach him a life lesson at an early age that if you’re in the paint, you can’t get caught. unexpectedly below the edge.”

To which we can only hope his son said: Send it in, Jeroen!

Second prize: It’s all the alarm clock’s fault!


Yusei Kikuchi really needs his Z’s. (Rich Story / USA Today)

We’ve always thought of Blue Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi as a sleeping giant.

We didn’t know!

Why did he retire early from a great start in September at Yankee Stadium? Because he was cramped, he said: after having “only” 11 hours of sleep – unlike his usual one 12 to 14 hours. So he may not lead the league in shutouts. But what does it matter. You’ve got to like his chances to lead the league in shuteye. And if this is a sleep goal of yours, T-shirts are available!

Third prize: If you (and your back) have to go

When Diamondbacks third baseman Evan Longoria strained his back last July, he would only miss a week or so. Then why did it become three weeks? Because he said he aggravated his back getting up from the toilet in a hotel bathroom in San Francisco.

So you thought sex could be dangerous to a baseball player’s career? Beware of the outhouse!

Fourth prize: There goes his step ratio


Tony Gonsolin successfully runs down the hill during a start in July. (Jerome Miron/USA Today)

Need more proof that most spring training drills are overrated? Dodgers pitcher Tony Gonsolin left for a routine fielding exercise during spring training last March — and got through the field section just fine. Turns out it was his exit strategy he should have worked on.

He tripped while walking off the field, sprained his ankle and missed the first four weeks of the season. But was it all worth it? He didn’t make a mistake all season!

Fifth Prize: They had plenty of time to be an even greater father

Finally, there were so many great fatherhood moments this season… which led to not-so-great moments trying to take the field… so we’re rounding them up here. If their families print and frame this, it should make a wonderful Father’s Day gift.

Giants pitcher Anthony DeSclafani broke his toe while playing piano with his son!

Adam Wainwright burned his finger… while cooking breakfast for his son!

Josh Donaldson cut his thumb while putting together a toy for his daughter!

That all seems difficult. But hey, at least they weren’t trying to dunk their kids in the pool.


The year in Strange but true

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The year is strange but true: MLB’s 20 most stunning batting and pitching performances of 2023

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The year in strange but true: MLB’s weirdest and wildest teams and games of 2023

(Top photo of Pete Fairbanks: Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

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The Year in Strange But True: MLB’s 20 most mind-blowing hitting, pitching feats of 2023 https://usmail24.com/mlb-2023-wild-hitting-pitching-stats/ https://usmail24.com/mlb-2023-wild-hitting-pitching-stats/#respond Tue, 26 Dec 2023 20:03:25 +0000 https://usmail24.com/mlb-2023-wild-hitting-pitching-stats/

It’s the most wonderful time of the year … except for one thing: It’s no longer baseball season! But that’s where we come in. It’s our not-so-solemn duty to get you through these long, chilly, baseball-free months by helping you relive the best of the Strange But True baseball season of 2023. Don’t tell us […]

The post The Year in Strange But True: MLB’s 20 most mind-blowing hitting, pitching feats of 2023 appeared first on USMAIL24.COM.

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It’s the most wonderful time of the year … except for one thing:

It’s no longer baseball season!

But that’s where we come in. It’s our not-so-solemn duty to get you through these long, chilly, baseball-free months by helping you relive the best of the Strange But True baseball season of 2023. Don’t tell us you already forgot that …

An unforgettable on-base streak ended even though the man who compiled that streak was standing on first base. … And we really did see a real human being steal third base and home on the same pitch. … And a team pitched a no-hitter despite the minor hindrance of also allowing seven runs — in the same inning!

We’re not making any of that up. We spend the whole year keeping track of wacky stuff like this so you don’t have to. So join us now as we relive The Strange But True Feats of 2023 … in five parts. Today’s installment: the hitters … the pitchers … and that Shohei guy who apparently does both of the above!

The Strangest But Truest Hitter of 2023: The Schwarbino


Kyle Schwarber had 47 homers and 48 singles on the season. (Eric Hartline / USA Today)

“Can you do me a favor?” Kyle Schwarber asked us one day in late September, though not totally seriously. “Can you write a story that tells people I actually had a good year?”

Sure. Why the heck not? It can be hard to know what to make of a leadoff hitter who finished the season hitting .197 with 215 strikeouts. So allow the Strange But True Feats of the Year column to help with that. It beats calculating those December wind-chill factors.

He’s the most unique leadoff monster of all time! Does it seem kinda Strange But True to see a team look at a .197 hitter who leads the league in strikeouts and decide: “Here’s a good way to win the World Series. Let’s have that guy lead off?”

Well, that’s what the Phillies did with the Schwarbino. On one hand, it allowed him to become the first man in the modern era to roll up at least 500 leadoff plate appearances in a season in which his average never made it to the Mendoza Line. (Previous record for lowest full-season average: .211, by Eddie “Sparky” Lake, for the 1947 Tigers.)

But wait. On the other hand, after the Phillies moved Schwarber into that leadoff spot to stay on June 2, they went 65-41 in games in which he led off. Which means they played like a 99-win team when he occupied the top slot in their lineup. So whatever. That worked! Here’s a perfect Strange But True example of how …

He was a leadoff earthquake waiting to happen! For 108 games in 2023, Schwarber was the first Phillies hitter to step into the box. He got a hit to lead off exactly 21 of those games. He hit a single to lead off only six of those games. So you think that was a problem?

Um, not so much. His OPS leading off games still wound up at 1.056. Does that sound good? It should, since it was merely the highest OPS, as the first batter of the game, in the history of a franchise that has been around since 1883 … because, apparently, all those leadoff walks (21) and leadoff Schwarbombs (11) can also be helpful. Which reminds us: If we just talk about his whiffs and his average, we’re leaving out some stuff!

He was also Ruthian! You know what else apparently can be helpful? Piling up massive amounts of homers (47), RBIs (104), runs scored (108) and walks (126). You know who has had that season? Oh, only Babe Ruth (six times), Mark McGwire (twice), Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Barry Bonds and Aaron Judge (once). And also …

Kyle Schwarber.

Which meant even more all-time Strange But True stuff was possible. Such as …

He was pretty much as productive as a guy who hit .306! Let the record show that, according to Baseball Reference, Schwarber finished with an OPS+ of 122. And how Strange But True is it for a guy who batted .197 to have an OPS that was still 22 percent better than league average? Well, it’s the highest OPS+ in history by a qualifying hitter whose average started with a “1.” So there’s that. But there’s also this:

Bo Bichette in 2023 — .306 AVG, 123 OPS+
Schwarber in 2023 — .197 AVG, 122 OPS+

How can that be possible? Excellent question. I’m not in charge of OPS+ calculations, but I’m guessing it has something to do with this: The guy who hit .197, amazingly, had a higher on-base percentage (.343) than the guy who hit .306 (.339)! That can happen when one guy draws 99 more walks than the other guy. But nevertheless, here come more Schwarbarian shockers. …

He hit .197 … and still led his team in runs scored! Does that seem hard to do? You should answer yes, because here’s the complete list of players since 1900 who have done that, on any team, with an average below .200, over any full season:

Kyle Schwarber, 2023 Phillies
List ends here — but not this list …

He had 100 more whiffs (215) than hits (115) … but still led his team in runs scored! You’ll love the rundown of all the special offensive forces who have ever finished a season with at least 100 more strikeouts than hits:

Adam Dunn (twice) … Joey Gallo (three times) … Chris Davis (2018) … and Schwarber (2023). What. A. Group. But … how many of those legendary whiffers also had 108 runs scored or led their team in runs (or both)? Here’s that complete list:

Kyle Schwarber, 2023 Phillies
List ends here

Stay out of the WAR Zone — Not surprisingly, Schwarber says even his teammates had all kinds of fun messing with him over his wacky stat line.

“There was a time,” he recalled fondly, “at some point this year, that I was a negative WAR player. So we were all laughing about that.”

Hey, his good news was that, by season’s end, he did in fact climb out of that negative-WAR zone. The bad news was, thanks to glovemanship issues that the WAR gods couldn’t ignore, he climbed to a final figure of only 0.6 WAR. Which meant …

Was it really possible for a man to mash 47 homers and surpass 100 RBIs and 100 runs scored, yet still be worth less than one win above replacement? Eh, we guess so. But had it ever appeared possible before? That would be no.

Incredibly, the only previous, similar monster season to lead to a WAR number under 3.0 was produced by another Phillies masher of some renown — Ryan Howard, in 2008. Somehow, the Baseball Reference WAR room looked at that Howard season — which included a staggering 48 homers, 146 RBIs and 105 runs — and calculated that to be worth just 1.8 WAR. Clearly, WAR can be confusing like that sometimes.

So in the end, did Kyle Schwarber care about his average or his whiffs or his WAR? Nope!

“I mean, did I picture myself doing this, hitting what I’m hitting? No,” he said. “I’m the first to tell you it’s all kind of interesting. … But you know what? At the end of the day, for me, if we’re getting a win, I’m happy.”

Our favorite Strange But True Ohtani-isms of 2023


What can’t he do? Will Ohtani play quarterback next? (Kirby Lee / USA Today)

It’s almost a reflex action to start every Strange But True column with the regularly scheduled Shohei Ohtani highlight reel. But since you’ve been treated to, like, 988 other Ohtani stories in the past week and a half, we’ll let him hit second in this lineup.

Oh, and also: We’ve already dug deep into the wildness and weirdness of that $700 million contract … and compared him to Mookie Betts/Gerrit Cole … and reminded you how many consecutive hits he’d have to give up before his career batting average would drop below the average of Unhappy Hitters Who Have to Face Ohtani. So no need to do that again.

Which means we can just use this space to shake our heads again over our favorite Strange But True Ohtani moments from 2023. Ready? So … on with the Shoh.

He never stopped making Tungsten Arm O’Doyle jokes possible — Do we need to re-tell, for the final time, the origin of the hilarious saga of Ohtani/Tungsten Arm O’Doyle? OK, we’ll make it quick. It began two years ago, with this then-innocent tweet.

Now, 2 trillion references later, Tungsten Arm O’Doyle can go down as one of the 21st century’s greatest fictitious legends. And Ohtani now can go up the freeway to Chavez Ravine to leave him in the dust. But in 2023, his last season in Orange County, the Angels kept Tungsten Arm on all of our radar screens, with stuff like this:

• Opening day — Ohtani the pitcher: six shutout innings, 10 strikeouts. Ohtani the hitter: reaches base twice. Tungsten Arm subplot: Angels still lose, 2-1, because … Tungsten!

• Aug. 18 — Ohtani the slammer: Hits a single in the first inning and whomps a grand slam an inning after that. Ohtani the teammate: Watches his team turn its first triple play since 1997 to keep this game tied in the ninth. Tungsten Arm subplot: Angels get an Ohtani slam and a game-saving triple play … and still lose to the Rays, 9-6, because … see above.

• Sept. 3 — Ohtani the track star: Steals his 20th base of the season, in what turned out to be the final time he reached base this year. Ohtani the historian: Becomes the first man in National League/American League history to join the 20-Steal/10-Win Club since the unforgettable Adonis Terry did it for the 1890 Brooklyn Bridegrooms. Tungsten Arm subplot: Angels still lose, 10-6, to an Oakland team that was 54 games under .500, because, clearly, this was their final chance to get Tungsten Arm O’Doyle into the fake headlines … so the baseball gods demanded they make it count.

Ohtani, the tri-cyclist — Back on May 9, 1918, someone named Babe Ruth went 5-for-5, with a triple, a single and three doubles, while pitching into extra innings before finally losing to Walter Johnson. The Babe never had another game with a single, double, triple and any pitches thrown. But on April 27, Ohtani had a game like that, in a win over Oakland. Here’s why we mention it:

He was the first pitcher with a single, double and triple in any kind of game in 36 years (since Danny Darwin did it in 1987) — and only the third in the past six decades. You know who didn’t have any games with a single and double and triple this year, despite the fact that they weren’t distracted by having to throw a single pitch? Oh, only Ronald Acuña Jr., Mookie Betts, Julio Rodríguez, Bobby Witt Jr. and about 1,000 other guys who otherwise appear seriously multi-talented.

Ohtani, the box-score filler-upper — Then there was June 27. Ohtani the pitcher: Faces 24 White Sox and strikes out 10 of them. Ohtani the hitter: Takes three swings all night … and gets three hits, two of them homers.

Here, at no extra charge, is your handy-dandy list of dudes in the division-play era with a double-digit strikeout game and a multi-homer eruption in the same game: Rick Wise (1971), Madison Bumgarner (2017), Zack Greinke (2019) and … Ohtani.

Ohtani, the 493-foot delivery man — Then, three days after that two-homer, 10-K game, a man who had a better strikeout ratio than Gerrit Cole this year launched a home run that was projected by Statcast at 493 feet, but actually, according to NASA scientists we just made up, reached Earth’s orbit. Don’t believe us? You can watch it! (And you should.)

Ohtani, the all-time twin-bill king — Finally, what do you say we salute the greatest doubleheader performance in baseball history (as declared by Strange But True World HQ, acclaimed as the ultimate authority on this subject, as of two sentences ago)?

July 27 in Detroit. Ohtani the pitcher: Throws a one-hit shutout in Game 1 of this doubleheader. Ohtani the hitter: Mashes two home runs in Game 2 of this doubleheader.

Question from those of us who write Strange But True Feats of the Year columns: Who the heck does this? Who the heck has ever done this?

The answer, according to the Elias Sports Bureau (via MLB.com’s resident Ohtani historian, Sarah Langs): That would be nobody, of course. How many men have ever thrown any kind of shutout in one game of a doubleheader and hit even one homer in the other game of a doubleheader? One man — named Shohei.

But a one-hit shutout in Game 1 and two home runs in Game 2? That’s not something you would expect to see in the major leagues. That’s out of the Marvel Superhero League.

Special bonus note from Langs: The last human before Ohtani who twirled a shutout in one game of a doubleheader and then started at any other position in the other game? George H. (Bambino) Ruth, on July 17, 1918. But no home runs for the Bambino that day!

Christmas special Strange But True Ohtani video treat — What can’t Shohei Ohtani do? If you watch this video, it’ll be obvious that the answer is: Not a freaking thing.

Our 10 favorite Strange But True Hitting Feats of 2023


No fooling: Trayce Thompson had a day on April 1, but then what happened? (Jonathan Hui / USA Today)

WITHOUT A TRAYCE — Just as we all expected, the first three-homer game of 2023 didn’t come rocketing off the bat of Aaron Judge or Matt Olson. Instead, it was the work of the Dodgers’ Trayce Thompson, a man whose brother (Klay) is slightly more famous for his 3-pointers than he is.

Nevertheless, in his first start of the season, on April 1, Trayce became the first Dodger in history to stuff a grand slam, three-run homer and solo homer into the same box score … and then … to make sure columns like this remain in business … that same guy went 40 days between hits (April 19 to May 30) … batted .148 over the rest of the season … and hit as many big-league home runs over the next six months as he hit that one day … because baseball!

THEIR SECOND FIRST ACT — In an April 13 visit to Yankee Stadium, the Twins just might have fired off the Strangest But Truest back-to-back homers ever. You know what their Nos. 1-2 hitters, Edouard Julien and Carlos Correa, did that day? They went back-to-back in the first inning. But that’s not the Strange But True part … because that has happened before.

You know what had never happened before? That would be a team’s 1-2 hitters going back-to-back in the first inning … but not to lead off the game. Turns out it’s helpful to feats like this if their teammates work a convenient little nine-run first-inning bat-around into their busy schedule. Whaddaya know.

FEEL THE PINCH — In baseball, as in life, it’s never just about how it starts. It’s about what happens when you enter the game. For more proof of that profound, age-old saying, which the great philosophers have been sharing since, oh, about half a paragraph ago, you should look at the 2023 stories of Elias Díaz and Andrew Knizner.

• Elias Díaz is a catcher for the Rockies. He turned 33 years old last month. And since the rules required somebody on the Rockies to be an All-Star, that somebody was him.

Remember his huge All-Star moment? How ’bout a game-winning, lead-flipping pinch home run to hand the NL the All-Star game. Awesome. But here comes the Strange But True part:

Pinch-hit All-Star home runs — one … in one swing.

Pinch-hit regular-season home runs … in 15 pro seasons, nine big-league seasons and 2,166 trips to the plate — zero!

Timing truly is everything.

• Andrew Knizner has spent most of his five-year big-league career as Yadi Molina’s backup catcher in St. Louis. But on May 17, quite the Strange But True plot line busted out. One minute, he was pinch running for Paul Goldschmidt (look it up!) in the eighth inning of a 9-1 game. Next minute, the Cardinals were batting around … and then this happened.

What you just saw was A Man With No Position smoking a grand slam. And only two other players in the past 65 seasons have done that. One was Rajai Davis in 2008. The other (Gene Stephens) did it in 1959 after pinch running for Ted Williams. But that isn’t even the Strange But True part.

The Strange But True part was that Andrew Knizner, a man who has never hit a slam while actually playing a position, hit this slam off Mike Brosseau, who doesn’t normally give those up because he’s an infielder. Which means … a guy with no position pounded a grand slam off a position player. And if you’re not more grateful than ever now for these Strange But True Feats of the Year columns, I don’t know how you made it this far into this one.

PLEASE IGNORE THE VIDEO EVIDENCE — A classic Strange But True thing happened to Padres shortstop Xander Bogaerts on May 3: His career-high 30-game on-base streak was broken despite the weird technicality that he was standing on first base when it ended.

Geez, it sure wasn’t his fault. He hit what looked like a single to right field. It wasn’t caught in the air by an outfielder, just like most hits. But unfortunately for him, the most confused man in San Diego happened to be his teammate Juan Soto. … Who missed the part where the baseball bounced … and hustled back to first base … where he found Bogaerts wasn’t as happy as usual to see him.

And that’s how a man who was standing on a base saw his on-base streak disappear, right before his eyes. However many times Bogaerts wondered in 2023 why he ever left Boston, we’re guessing that was one of them!

NICKEL BACKS — Is Five Hit Fever something a guy could catch just hanging around the batting cage? We ask because Marlins hit machine Luis Arraez definitely caught it this June. How Strange But True is this:

Arraez in June: three five-hit games in 16 days.

Miguel Cabrera in his 21-year career: two five-hit games in 2,797 games.

Strange but 100 percent true.

But we also asked about Five Hit Fever because of …

The Angels: They mysteriously went five years — despite employing Mike Trout and Ohtani for all five of them — without having any stinking hitter on the roster figure out how to get five hits in a game … until Hunter Renfroe finally unfurled their first quintuple since 2018 in a June 24 blowout of the Rockies. How even? But wait, Here comes the …

Strange But True Epilogue: So how long after that would it take for an Angel — any Angel — to deliver their next five-hit game? It was quite the wait … of two batters … until Mickey Moniak got his fifth hit of the day in that same inning. Because … Five Hit Fever! Catch it.

THE WILD BLUE YAN-DER — If you’re familiar with the work of Cubs catcher Yan Gomes, you’re probably aware he’ll never be confused with Usain Bolt, let alone Dee Strange-Gordon. But in the Strange But True world we live in, anything is possible, even for a man who ranked 449th in the majors this year in average “sprint” speed.

So naturally, on July 20, at age 36, Gomes did something no catcher his age (or older) had done in the past 95 years: He hit two triples in one game! But that’s not all, because he actually hit triples in two plate appearances in a row. Now here are two reasons we might be interested in something like that:

1) How many other catchers hit two triples in a game not just this year, but the year before that … and the year before that … and the year before that? Anybody out there guess none? Excellent guess!

2) How many triples has Gomes hit on any of the 201 other days he has been allowed to play baseball by the Cubs over these past two seasons? That, too, would be none … in 708 trips to the plate.

But in the middle of all that, this same guy smacked a triple in two at-bats in a row? C’mon. How can you not love the total random wackiness of …

Baseball!


Reds rookie sensation Elly De La Cruz wasted no time in providing Strange But True material. (Orlando Ramirez / USA Today)

IT’S ALL CYCLICAL — We could have worked the Reds’ human tool kit, Elly De La Cruz, into this column about 12 different ways. Did you know he hit a baseball this year harder (119.2 mph) than any ball hit by Aaron Judge? That seems like a cool thing to do for the fastest dude on the field.

But that’s not even what De La Cruz is doing in this sentence you’re currently reading. Nope. How about this:

On June 23, he hit for the cycle — in the 15th game of his career.

On July 8, he stole for the cycle — by stealing second, third and home in the same inning.

And even though stealing for the cycle is a thing we just invented, it’s still a thing you need to be in awe of, if only because he also stole third and home on the same pitch.

Last Red to steal for the cycle — Greasy Neale, in 1919!

Last Red to hit for the cycle — Eric Davis, in 1989, which meant all the other teams had fit 110 cycles in between Reds’ cycles!

Players in the live-ball era to do both 15 days apart (or quicker) — Elly De La Cruz … and that’ll do it for that list.

Other players in the past 98 seasons who did both in the same year — Exactly one, and it was … um … Wil Myers? He did it in 2017. But that, in this case, is not the Strange But True part.

Because you know what else happened the day De La Cruz hit for the cycle and started all this? The Reds released a guy named … Wil Myers!

VLAD YOU STOPPED BY — Don’t ask us how Vlad Guerrero Jr. didn’t make this column just for fielding a groundball in May, getting the baseball stuck in the webbing and then flipping the whole glove to the pitcher for an out that proved, once again, your glove will not let you down. Except that wasn’t even his Strangest But Truest feat of that week.

For his greatest Strange But True classic, we take you to May 23 in Tampa Bay, when one of the goofiest games of the season busted out … in large part thanks to Vlad.

Ever heard of a team scoring nine runs in one inning — all against position players masquerading as pitchers? That. Really. Happened. In the ninth inning of that game. For the first time in the history of this sport.

And the “pitcher” who was responsible for most of that carnage was Rays first baseman Luke Raley. But in the midst of all those rockets Raley was serving up, he at least shared this nutty little moment with the fearsome Vlad Guerrero Jr., right after taking the mound in the eighth.

So Vladdy could have made the Strange But True Feats of the Year just for that, except … have we mentioned there was a nine-run ninth inning in this game? … So what were the odds of the Jays’ lineup turning and turning and turning … until here came Vlad to bat again in the ninth inning … only to find Raley still pitching, with the bases loaded? Want to guess what happened in the rematch? Yeah, it did.

Does it get much Stranger But Truer than a guy striking out and mashing a slam in the same game against the same position player? That would be hard seeing how it had never, ever happened … until Guerrero showed up at home plate.

SUSPENDED ANIMATION — What’s even stranger (but truer) than a Mookie Betts 5-for-5 game? How about a suspended Mookie Betts 5-for-5 game!

That’s a thing that happened during the Dodgers’ August visit to Cleveland. And here’s the part that propelled it into this column:

Aug. 23 — Mookie goes 2-for-2 (with two singles) before half a billion raindrops cause a slight intermission in his hot streak.

Aug. 24 — Mookie gets three more hits (single, single, double) after the game finally resumes.

All right, now here’s what makes that a Strange But True all-timer: For the rest of time, history will try to convince us that Mookie had a five-hit game on Wednesday the 23rd … even though many human witnesses exist who could tell you that three of those hits actually met the bat on the “wrong” day (Thursday the 24th).

So how Strange But True was that? So strange that, according to our friends from STATS Perform, only one other player since 1901 has ever gotten five hits or more in a suspended game … with more than half of them coming on the “wrong” day. But the other (Tom Paciorek) did it in a 26-inning game (on May 8-9, 1984). Which would be 17 more innings than it took Mookie Betts — our official Strange But True Time Traveler of 2023.


Ozzie Albies and the Braves did a number on the Mets on Aug. 12. (Brad Penner / USA Today)

WE’VE GOT YOUR NUMBER — The Braves’ whole season could have made this list, because in case you missed it, they somehow had a higher slugging percentage as a team (.501) than bashers like Bryce Harper (.499), Rafael Devers (.500) and José Ramírez (.478) had by themselves. But instead, we’re going to zone in on Aug. 12, our favorite Braves Strange But True day of the year.

They scored 21 runs in Game 1 of a doubleheader against the Mets that day. But that wasn’t the Strange But True part. The Strange But True part was how they divvied up those 21 runs. By which we mean they had …

One guy with one RBI (Ronald Acuña Jr.).

Another with two RBIs (Sean Murphy).

Another with three RBIs (Austin Riley).

Another with four RBIs (Matt Olson).

Another with five RBIs (Nicky Lopez).

And yet another with six RBIs (Ozzie Albies).

Which meant everyone else who played had no RBIs. And that caused way too many of you to say to yourselves: Hmmm, could that ever have happened? And also: You know who we should ask? The Strange But True column!

So we reached out to the great Katie Sharp of Baseball Reference to look into that very question. On one hand, she did find one team that ran off that 1-2-3-4-5-6 RBI box-score trick. On the other hand, that team was Kiki Cuyler’s 1925 Pirates (against St. Louis on June 22, 1925). Which means it happened as recently as 98 years ago.

But wait. That team actually had two players with two RBIs and two players with one RBI. So you know what that means? It means that, since RBIs became an official stat in 1920, this Braves game was the first time in history that six hitters on one team went 1-2-3-4-5-6 in the RBI column … while nobody else on their team was driving in any runs. And that, for all of you who played 1-2-3-4-5-6 in the Powerball that night, is why we love …

Baseball!

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Are the Braves the greatest offense in baseball history? They’re making quite a case

Our 10 favorite Strange But True Pitching Feats of 2023


Adam Wainwright tips his cap to the St. Louis crowd on the night of his 200th victory. (Jeff Roberson / Associated Press)

FOUNTAINS OF WAINO — We’ll miss Adam Wainwright. This is, after all, a column dedicated to mixing fun with all the beauties of baseball. And we can’t think of any player, over the past two decades, who got that concept any better than the Cardinals’ curveball king.

So what was more perfectly Strange But True than the 200th and final win of Wainwright’s wonderful career? Here’s what made it the kind of game Strange But True Feats of the Year columns latch onto:

He spun seven shutout innings — for his only scoreless start of the year.

He won this game, 1-0 — for his first 1-0 win in nine years.

His catcher, Willson Contreras, hit a home run to drive in the only run — the first time he’d ever done that as a Cardinal. But now let’s keep going, because we’ve barely scratched the surface of the Strange But Trueness.

• Back on Opening Day of the 2014 season, Wainwright won the 100th game of his career. He went seven shutout innings in that game, too. But hold on. There’s more.

• How do you think the only run scored in that 100th win? Would you believe on a home run by his catcher, Yadi Molina? Yep, the same way he won No. 200.

• But wait. There’s still more. How many other pitchers in history have ever won their 200th game 1-0 on a home run by their catcher? Right. That would be none.

• And how many other 1-0 games in Wainwright’s career did he win on any kind of RBI by his catcher? Right. That would also be none.

Baseball. It’s the best.

NUMBER SCRUNCHING — In baseball, we love big numbers. But here at Strange But True World HQ, we also love little numbers. The littler the better, in fact. So here’s a toast to these tiny numbers from 2023.

1 — Does it seem impossible for a pitcher to record a one-pitch strikeout? Ha. Are you familiar with the weirdness of baseball? All it took for Phillies reliever Jeff Hoffman to pull that off, back on July 28, was about three trillion raindrops in Pittsburgh. Then he marched in after a rain delay, inherited a 1-2 count on Jared Triolo, got him to swing through a slider and voila!

3 — Do first innings get any neater or cleaner than the three pitches it took Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani to zip through his first inning on May 28 against the Pirates? Wait. Don’t answer that too swiftly.

Three pitches. Three outs. But also … one extra-base hit (by Tucupita Marcano, on the first pitch of the game). Luckily, the next two pitches went: Line-drive out … fly-ball double play. The most baseball thing ever.

0 — Finally, hard as we’ve been trying not to pick on the Mets in this column, it doesn’t get much Stranger Than Truer than a walk-off balk, issued by a pitcher (Josh Walker) who threw zero pitches. But that was the Mets season in glorious micro-Met-rocosm.

Here’s that deal. Walker rolls in to relieve Grant Hartwig in an Aug. 1 tilt with the Royals. Tie game. Two outs in the 10th. Leans in for the sign. His PitchCom glitches out. And … oh no!

We’ve been keeping track of pitch counts for the past 36 seasons. In the 80,000 games or so in those 36 seasons, only one other pitcher has ever managed a no-pitch “balk-off” to end any game: Mike Stanton, for the Nationals, on July 15, 2005. But whatever it took in 2023, it felt as though the Mets were gonna find a way to Met!

CRAZY EIGHTS — Who had a Stranger But Truer 2023 than Lucas Giolito? It was wacky enough that he ping-ponged from the White Sox to the Angels to the Guardians in a mere 36 days. But that wasn’t even the Strange But True part.

The Strange But True part was he found a way to allow at least eight runs in a game for all three of those teams. The “good news” for Giolito: He was not the only guy ever to do that for three different teams. But the bad news was, the last pitcher to do it was Bill McGee … in 1899!

DOMINGO’S PERFECT STORM — If baseball made any sense, all perfect games would be thrown by true aces. So if Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw are ever in the mood to go 27-up, 27-down some day, we’re cool with that. We’d even sign off on occasional guest perfectos by Corbin Burnes and Max Scherzer — because at least we could understand how that’s possible.

Instead, we are continually reminded that baseball makes no sense. And could there be any more proof than this: The only perfect game of the past decade was authored this season by world-famous non-ace Domingo Germán of the Yankees. And can we all agree that’s just ridiculous?

Six days before Germán’s perfecto (June 22 versus Seattle) — He faces 23 hitters, gives up 10 runs, gets only 10 outs and never even retires three in a row! (The attractive box-score line: 3 1/3 IP — 8 H, 10 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 4 HR, 93 pitches to get 10 outs!)

Six days later (June 28 at Oakland) — The same human faces 27 hitters, gets all 27 of them out! (The much more presentable line: 9-0-0-0-0-9, 97 pitches to get 27 outs!)

We were so befuddled by this, how could we not ask our friends from STATS if it was as illogical and unprecedented as we suspected? The answer: Well, you could probably guess the answer.

This was baseball’s 20th perfect game since 1909. There was one slight difference between German’s gem and the other 19: He was the only one who faced at least 23 hitters in the previous start and never once retired three in a row … because of course he was!


Michael Lorenzen celebrates the no-hitter with his Phillies teammates.  (Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)

THE LORENZEN EXPRESS — At least Domingo Germán didn’t throw any other no-hitters this year … but Michael Lorenzen did … because why the heck not! He was traded by the Tigers to the Phillies on Aug. 1. He no-hit the Nationals eight days later.

No need to mention that after the no-hitter, his ERA over the final two months was 8.01. Doesn’t matter. He no-hit his way right into the Strange But True Feats of the Year column. Here’s why:

Steve Carlton — spent 15 years pitching for the Phillies, won three Cy Young awards, led all left-handers in baseball in WAR over those 15 seasons, made the Hall of Fame … and pitched zero no-hitters.

Michael Lorenzen — had spent eight days as a Phillie, had never thrown a pitch for the Phillies in Philadelphia before that night, was out of the rotation five weeks later … but has achieved trivia immortality as the answer to a version of this question: Who’s the only Phillie to pitch a no-hitter in Philadelphia since Roy Halladay?

Wow. Baseball. Is it amazing, or what?

DREAM WEAVER — You should know that Luke Weaver did not throw any no-hitters for the Reds this year (or for his other two teams — the Mariners and Yankees — either). But he, too, did exemplary work in proving our recurring thesis about baseball: It. Makes. No. Sense.

On one handFrom May 31 to July 8, Weaver made eight starts for the Reds. You decide how that went.

• His ERA: 8.66

Slash line of hitters he faced: .342/.392/.613

• What that means: He basically turned the entire league into 2012 Miguel Cabrera (who hit .330/.393/.606 that year).

So that was a disaster, huh? Um, don’t answer yet, because …

On the other hand … how’d the Reds make out in those eight starts? Would you believe …

They went 8-0!

You’d think we were making that up, right? And then you’d remember … this is the Strange But True Feats of the Year column!

BOX-SCORE CORNER — You don’t need us to point out that certain trips to the mound are Strange But True material. You just need to consult the box scores. They tell you all you need to know about games like this …

Ben Lively, Aug. 1 at WrigleyIn the Cubs’ 20-9 thrashing of the Reds, Lively was more like Ben Deadly:

4 IP, 13 H, 13 R, 13 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 4 HR, 1 HBP, 94 pitches to get 12 outs!

So what’s up with that? You know how hard it is to give up 13 hits and 13 earned runs but not even get 12 outs? Nobody had done that since Les (not a McDonald’s entrée) McCrabb … on April 16, 1942! … But you know how much harder it is to give up 13 earned runs and four homers? So hard that, since earned runs became an official stat more than a century ago, just one pitcher has done that. His name: Ben Lively.

Luis Cessa, April 16 versus the PhilliesWe’re not sure how this column turned into a Reds Rotation’s Greatest Hits collection. But it wouldn’t have been possible to compile these Strange But True Pitching Feats of the year without this sparkling start by Cessa:

3 IP, 14 H, 11 R, 11 ER, 3 BB, 0 K, 1 HR, 1 HBP, 1 WP, 88 pitches to get nine outs.

So what’s up with that? Before we could even look this up, loyal reader Allan Wood beat us to it. You know how many pitchers since 1900 have given up that many runs and that many hits but not even gotten 10 outs? Just one. Right … Luis Cessa.

Josh Fleming, May 28 versus the Dodgers — Meanwhile, in non-Reds box-score developments, Fleming’s final start of the year for the Rays was a classic in more ways than one:

6 IP, 12 H, 10 R, 8 ER, 2 BB, 3 K … and 5 HR!

So what’s up with that? Ha. Trick question. You won’t believe it. Yes, this man gave up 12 hits, 10 runs and five looonnnggg balls — but it was all worth it. Not just because he saved the bullpen, but also because … his team won (11-10)! He’s the first pitcher to get bruised for that many runs, hits and homers in a game his team won since the legendary Dodger, Ralph Branca, was allowed to stick around for all nine innings in a scenic 17-10 game in Pittsburgh on June 25, 1949.


Chase Anderson gave up an unlucky 13 runs to the Angels in an infamous third inning. (John Leyba / USA Today)

CUT TO THE CHASE — Every trip to the mound at Coors Field is an opportunity, all right — an opportunity to wind up in the Strange But True Feats of the Year column. So congratulations to Chase Anderson, for doing his part in a messy little 25-1 loss to the Angels on June 24.

Here is how he kicked off a fun little 13-run third inning that day:

First pitch — Mike Trout home run.

Second pitch — Brandon Drury home run.

Third pitch — Matt Thaiss home run.

That’s three pitches, three home runs. And you don’t see that much. In fact, home runs on three pitches in a row, at any point in any inning, is a thing that’s happened only one other time to any active pitcher … and it was the same pitcher.

No kidding. Back on Sept. 17, 2020, when Anderson was a Blue Jay, he served up three in a row to the Yankees in the fourth inning. And that would make no sense at all, except it’s …

Baseball!

NO-HIT PANDA-MONIUM — We don’t ordinarily take these Strange But True expeditions into the wilds of the minor leagues. But we’re making an exception here for the beloved Rocket City Trash Pandas, of the always-entertaining Double-A Southern League, because …

The good news: On April 9, the Trash Pandas did one of those things that are supposed to feel like a dream come true — by throwing a no-hitter, in an all-time minor-league classic, against Chattanooga. But now comes …

The not quite as good as that news: They managed to throw that no-hitter and lose, which doesn’t happen much, even in the Southern League. And that isn’t even the Strange But True part, because you should definitely read on to …

The not even as good as that last thing news: They pulled off the rarified feat of throwing a no-hitter … and allowing seven runs … but also … allowing all seven of those runs in the same inning.

How Strange But True is it to give up seven runs in a no-hitter? Oh, you know. No big-league team has ever done it. And the only other time it’s known to have happened in the minor leagues was Aug. 31, 1948, in the late, great Pony League, when Louis Blackmore of the Wellsville Red Sox did it in a game in which there wasn’t much need for anybody to get a hit … since he also sprinkled in 17 walks that day!

So is that how the Trash Pandas did it? Eh, not exactly. Their attractive seven-run inning … in the middle of a no-hitter, remember … went like this:

Walk … walk … infield-fly rule popup (one out) … walk … strikeout (two outs) … walk (one run) … three-run error on the center fielder (four runs – oops!) … new pitcher … hit-by-pitch … hit-by-pitch … hit-by-pitch (five runs) … walk (six runs) … run-scoring wild pitch (seven runs) … hit-by-pitch … strikeout (three outs).

So what are the odds of giving up seven runs in a no-hitter, no matter how many innings it takes? This took some math. But here goes …

In the last 105 big-league games in which a team gave up no hits, you know how many runs those 105 teams gave up? That would be six — in all 105 of those games combined! But somehow, the Trash Pandas gave up seven … in one inning. And if you’ve never seen anything like that, we can help with that too!

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Weird & Wild: Marveling at the Trash Pandas’ no-hitter loss and the Rays’ winning streak

THE GHOST OF HARVEY HADDIX — But the Milwaukee Brewers don’t need to check in with any Trash Pandas to know that throwing a no-hitter can be overrated. They lived it Sept. 10 — in one of the Strangest But Truest games of any year.

For nine innings that day, Corbin Burnes and Devin Williams no-hit the Yankees in the Bronx. Then reliever Abner Uribe stomped out of the bullpen and made it 10 hitless innings. If the Brewers had just remembered to score a run or 12 in those 10 innings, they’d have had a way better time.

Instead, this game kept going — through the 11th inning, through the 12th inning, into the 13th inning — during which … the Yankees went from getting no hits in any inning to getting at least one hit … and scoring … in every inning, from the 11th through the 13th, because … it’s baseball … and … it makes no sense.

So on a day when the Brewers gave up no hits for 10 innings, they still lost, 4-3. And how Strange But True was that? You’ve come to the right place.

On one hand … teams that spin off nine hitless innings tend to win a lot. In the division-play era (1969-2023), 150 teams have pitched exactly nine innings of hit-free, run-free domination in either a regular-season or postseason game. The record of those teams is a perfect 150-0. OK, sure.

Or 10 is also cool … because no team in the modern era has pitched exactly 10 hitless, scoreless innings in a game and lost, either. The record of teams that do that: 4-0 … as we’d all expect. However …

On the other hand … here comes the Strangest But Truest no-hitter fact ever: No team has ever taken a no-hitter into the 11th inning … and won that game! This is true. Those teams are now 0-4. Really.

So if your favorite team ever finds itself throwing a no-hitter in the 11th inning, don’t say we didn’t warn you. It may seem like a beautiful thing while you’re watching it. But in reality, it’s more dangerous than you think, just because it’s …

Baseball!

(Top photo of Kyle Schwarber: Rich Graessle / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Emily Ratajkowski shows off her flawless figure in orange bikini after revealing she plans to write a book about her divorce from Sebastian Bear-McClard https://usmail24.com/emily-ratajkowski-shows-flawless-figure-orange-bikini-htmlns_mchannelrssns_campaign1490ito1490/ https://usmail24.com/emily-ratajkowski-shows-flawless-figure-orange-bikini-htmlns_mchannelrssns_campaign1490ito1490/#respond Fri, 08 Dec 2023 20:40:11 +0000 https://usmail24.com/emily-ratajkowski-shows-flawless-figure-orange-bikini-htmlns_mchannelrssns_campaign1490ito1490/

By Amy Lamare for Dailymail.Com Published: 3:33 PM EST, December 8, 2023 | Updated: 3:33 PM EST, December 8, 2023 Emily Ratajkowski showed off her incredible figure in a selfie on Instagram on Friday. The brunette beauty, 32, wore a tiny orange print bikini, a bandeau top and thong bottoms. A giraffe-print sarong was wrapped […]

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Emily Ratajkowski showed off her incredible figure in a selfie on Instagram on Friday.

The brunette beauty, 32, wore a tiny orange print bikini, a bandeau top and thong bottoms.

A giraffe-print sarong was wrapped around the My Body author’s slim hips and a royal blue New York Mets baseball cap sat on her head.

EmRata – who plans to write a book about her divorce – appeared to be enjoying a getaway in a luxury hotel suite in a tropical location.

The warm weather break is a nice break from the cold of New York City for the mother of one.

Emily Ratajkowski showed off her incredible figure in a selfie on Instagram on Friday. The brunette beauty, 32, wore a tiny orange print bikini, a bandeau top and thong bottoms

The founder of Immorata swimwear appears on the cover of the current issue of Vogue Australia and in the accompanying article she talked about her divorce from Sebastian Bear-McClard.

The couple married in 2018 after a whirlwind courtship, welcomed their son Sylvester in 2021 and split in 2022 amid rumors that Sebastian cheated on Emily.

The iCarly alum revealed that she plans to write a book about her divorce, hoping it can reduce some of the stigma surrounding it.

“I can’t believe there aren’t more books about failed first marriages,” she said.

“I’ve read a lot of literature on divorce, but it’s usually about families that end after the children grow up,” she told the publication.

“I think so many women divorce at a younger age, and it’s such a taboo and there’s such a stigma around it,” Emily continued.

The author of My Body pointed out that the institution of marriage should be different today because women are financially able to provide for themselves.

“Our world has changed so much because women earn, if not the same wages, more money than their partners,” she said.

The Immorata swimwear founder appears on the cover of the current issue of Vogue Australia and in the accompanying article she opens up about her divorce from Sebastian Bear-McClard

The Immorata swimwear founder appears on the cover of the current issue of Vogue Australia and in the accompanying article she opens up about her divorce from Sebastian Bear-McClard

The couple married in 2018 after a whirlwind courtship, welcomed their son Sylvester in 2021 and split in 2022 amid rumors that Sebastian cheated on Emily.

The couple married in 2018 after a whirlwind courtship, welcomed their son Sylvester in 2021 and split in 2022 amid rumors that Sebastian cheated on Emily.

The iCarly alum revealed that she plans to write a book about her divorce in hopes that it can reduce some of the stigma surrounding it

The iCarly alum revealed that she plans to write a book about her divorce in hopes that it can reduce some of the stigma surrounding it

“I can't believe there aren't more books about failed first marriages,” she said.

“I can’t believe there aren’t more books about failed first marriages,” she said. “I’ve read a lot of literature on divorce, but it’s usually about families that end after the children grow up,” she told the publication.

“And then also carrying the burden of the emotional and physical responsibilities of the home birth,” she added.

Emily also pointed out that women don’t have to get married the way women from previous generations did.

“Marriage isn’t always as fair as it used to be, or at least not as it should have been,” she explained.

She added: “I’m not sure it was ever a fair deal, so there should be no shame for them to walk away from that bad deal. I would like to write more about that.’

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Stark: 5 things to watch on the 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot https://usmail24.com/baseball-hall-of-fame-2024-ballot-storylines/ https://usmail24.com/baseball-hall-of-fame-2024-ballot-storylines/#respond Wed, 22 Nov 2023 18:06:51 +0000 https://usmail24.com/baseball-hall-of-fame-2024-ballot-storylines/

Nine weeks from today, we’ll find out who gets to live out the weekend of a lifetime next July in magical Cooperstown, N.Y. Spoiler alert: Adrián Beltré’s friends and loved ones had better make those dinner reservations ASAP! But there were 25 other names on the 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot that was announced […]

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Nine weeks from today, we’ll find out who gets to live out the weekend of a lifetime next July in magical Cooperstown, N.Y. Spoiler alert: Adrián Beltré’s friends and loved ones had better make those dinner reservations ASAP!

But there were 25 other names on the 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot that was announced on Monday. And when I looked over those names, I could already see the storylines forming in my brain.

So here they come — my Five Things to Watch on the latest, greatest Hall ballot.

1. Can Adrián Beltré make ballot history?


Adrián Beltré throws out the first pitch before Game 2 of the 2023 World Series. (Raymond Carlin III / USA Today)

Could Adrián Beltré really become the first position player to get elected to the Hall of Fame unanimously? It’s a fascinating question to contemplate, isn’t it?

Derek Jeter missed by one vote. Ken Griffey Jr. missed by three. Ty Cobb was four away. Cal Ripken Jr. was eight away.

Babe Ruth wasn’t unanimous. Willie Mays wasn’t unanimous. Henry Aaron and Ted Williams weren’t unanimous. It’s bizarre even to type those words.

But Hall of Fame voting is in its ninth decade of making way too little sense. So even if the voters of the 21st century seem a lot more rational than their predecessors of 50, 60 and 70 years ago, there are always questions. Don’t expect that to change between now and Jan. 23, when the results are announced.

So let’s ask again: Is it possible that Beltré could join the great Mariano Rivera as the only unanimous Hall of Famers? I’ll take the “under,” but seriously, what reason could any voter find to not check Beltré’s name?

Who could not vote for a third baseman with 3,166 hits? Can’t answer that … if only because no true full-time third baseman ever got that many. (George Brett finished with 3,154 hits. Paul Molitor topped 3,300 but spent more time at DH than at third.)

Who could not vote for a third baseman so smooth that he owns five Gold Glove awards and the most career Fielding Runs of any third baseman in history not named Brooks Robinson?

Who could not vote for a third baseman who once won a home run title, led his league in hits and was still winning Gold Gloves and collecting MVP votes at age 37?

Who could not vote for a third baseman who rolled up 93.5 career WAR, according to Baseball Reference? You understand that puts Beltré in legend territory, right? He ranks 25th in WAR among all position players whose careers began after 1900. And every non-Hall of Famer in that group is in the team picture of the All-PED team.

I’m sure somebody will find a reason not to vote for him. But even if Beltré isn’t unanimous, he could still rack up the highest first-ballot percentage by a third baseman in history. Brett was at 98.2 percent. Mike Schmidt was at 96.5. If Beltré isn’t somewhere in that range, I can’t wait to hear the reasoning from those voters who leave his name unchecked.

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Make your Hall of Fame picks in our first-ever The Athletic MLB reader survey

2. Are we finally going to have a Hall of Famer who spent his whole career on a Rocky Mountain High?


Todd Helton is on the verge of election. (Christian Petersen / Getty Images)

Four elections ago, Larry Walker knocked down the big billboard at the Colorado state line that used to say: THE ROAD TO COOPERSTOWN — YOU CAN’T GET THERE FROM HERE. So now that the road is finally open, is it Todd Helton’s turn?

Helton spent 17 seasons playing for the Rockies. He finished his career with a .316/.414/.539/.953 slash line. You know how many players whose career started after 1930 have topped that? Exactly two: Ted Williams and Stan Musial.

So do we even have to ask whether Helton would already be a Hall of Famer if he’d put up those numbers anywhere else? That’s obvious.

But what’s also obvious is that Coors Field is like no place else. And Helton is the first player ever to play his whole career in Colorado and find himself on the precipice of the Hall of Fame. So even if the Coors Cooperstown Curse isn’t what it used to be, has it magically evaporated all of a sudden? Don’t be so sure of that.

Nevertheless, there’s an excellent chance Helton’s time has arrived. He was the biggest shooting star on the ballot last year, jumping by an amazing 20 percent. So he missed election by 11 votes last year, his fifth on this ballot. And history tells us that pretty much everybody who comes that close gets his ticket to Cooperstown punched the next year.

In the past 50 elections, only 10 other players returned to the ballot after coming up short by 11 votes or fewer. Of that group, just Jim Bunning didn’t get elected the next time he was up. And Bunning got his plaque eventually (via the Veterans Committee).

So Todd Helton is going to be the first career-long Rockie to make it onto that podium. The drama over these next two months is whether that happens now or later. And “now” is an excellent bet.

3. Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley: Together again?


Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley will reunite on the Hall ballot.  (Hunter Martin / Getty Images)

They were the Trammell and Whitaker of their generation. Will Hall of Fame voters value that?

Not so long ago, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley hung out in the middle of the infield for an incredible 1,227 games together, the most in National League history. And not all of those games were in Philadelphia, by the way. (They also teamed up for 14 games for the Dodgers at the end of the 2015 season.)

But now it’s time for them to make yet one more cool reunion — on the new Hall of Fame ballot.

It’s Utley’s first year on the ballot, and he’s as intriguing as any first-timer on the list. It’s Rollins’ third spin through the process. And at first, I thought: Hey, that’s fun. But then my next thought was: Wait. Has this ever happened? Have two longtime double-play partners ever taken a ride together on the Cooperstown Express?

I knew, you see, that Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker somehow never appeared on the same ballot. That’s the voters’ fault, not theirs, of course. Whitaker remains one of the writers’ worst one-and-done’s ever, getting bounced following his first election in 2001 after receiving just 2.9 percent of the vote. Which meant he was missing in action once Trammell arrived in 2002.

So I had to turn to my friends at STATS Perform to see if there was any parallel in history to Rollins and Utley. And let’s start with this: No double-play combination in the history of baseball ever played as many games together as these two guys and then showed up on the Hall ballot together. Wow.

STATS’ Tom Paquette dug deeper on this. Besides Rollins/ Utley and Trammell/Whitaker, he found only six double-play duos in the modern era (1901-present) that played at least 1,000 games together. But to find the last time any of those combinations appeared on the same Hall ballot, you have to go back nearly 40 years.

Nellie Fox and Luis Aparicio spent 1,035 games in the same infield in the 1950s and ’60s. Then, between 1979 and 1984, they made it onto six Hall ballots together, a streak that ended with Aparicio’s election in ’84.

Before them, you have to travel back another four decades to find any other member of the 1,000-Game DP Combo Club that appeared on the same ballot. The only other was the fabled Joe Tinker/Johnny Evers tag team. But don’t look for any YouTube footage on those two. They played their last game together for the Cubs in 1913. Then they appeared on six Hall ballots in the 1930s and ’40s.

So is it possible that Rollins and Utley are in for a longer ride than six years? Since Rollins has eight years of eligibility left, it’s theoretically possible. But is one of them going to get elected by 2031? Or both of them? Or neither? Good question. And if that answer is one of them, then which one?

Rollins has the more traditional selling points on his side: An MVP trophy, four Gold Gloves, more than 2,400 hits, 200 homers, 400 steals and 857 extra-base hits. And how many other shortstops in history can say that? That would be none. Yet he attracted only 50 votes last year. So is he going to find another 242 votes out there? That seems hard.

Utley, meanwhile, has a very different case. He’s basically an analytics cult hero, whose monster peak (six seasons, from 2005-10, in which he averaged 7.6 WAR) has the potential to make him a popular name to check, especially when you add in all the winning his teams did.

But Utley never even got to 1,900 hits. And the writers haven’t elected a player with under 2,000 in almost 50 years (since Ralph Kiner, in 1975). Yet if I had to place a friendly wager on this, I’d still bet Utley gets more votes this year than Rollins.

You know what would be really interesting, though? What are the chances these two can somehow elevate each other’s candidacy — just by generating perspective and conversation about who’s more deserving? It’s a question worth asking, if only because I’ve always wondered what might have happened if Trammell and Whitaker had gotten the chance to do that.

4. Will Billy Wagner and Gary Sheffield run out of time?


Billy Wagner received 68.1 percent of the vote in the last election. (Ronald Martinez / Allsport)

It’s Gary Sheffield’s 10th and final year on this ballot. It’s Billy Wagner’s ninth, so he has two more shots at this. But is that enough time?

Fourteen years after he took his final ferocious hack, Sheffield attracted 54 more votes last year than he’d gotten the year before, so he’s now at 55.0 percent. Thirteen years after his final save, Wagner’s vote count rocketed upward by 64 votes last year — the biggest one-year jump by any reliever in Hall voting history. He made it all the way to 68.1 percent.

If one of them is going to make it to 75 percent, Wagner is the obvious favorite. He was only 27 votes — 6.9 percentage points — away from election last year. So are there really 27 voters so dug in on keeping him out of Cooperstown that he can’t find those votes? History would suggest that’s highly unlikely.

Five previous relievers — Trevor Hoffman, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter, Hoyt Wilhelm and Rollie Fingers — have crossed the 60 percent barrier with at least two years left on the ballot. All five of them got elected within two years.

On the other hand, Hoffman was at 67.3 percent in 2016 and still came up short the next year. So does Wagner have a 7 percentage point leap in him this time around? We love election night drama, right? That story has all the makings.

Sheffield, meanwhile, has a bigger mountain to climb because he’s trying to do something extremely rare. Over the past 50 elections, only one man has made the unlikely pole vault from 55 percent (or lower) in his next-to-last year to getting elected at the buzzer. And that was Larry Walker, who was at 54.6 percent with one year to go — and then eked in by six votes on his final turn.

But does a guy with Sheffield’s ties to performance-enhancing drugs, vague as they might be, have that sort of jump in him? Seems unlikely, but we’re about to find out.

5. Can Joe Mauer channel his inner Ernie Banks?


Joe Mauer was the AL MVP in 2009. (John Biever / Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)

Once upon a time, in a baseball galaxy far, far away, there was a future Hall of Famer named Ernie Banks. Just like Joe Mauer, his career was divided between time at two positions. Just like Mauer, he was special at one, not so much at the other.

In his nine seasons at what was then looked at as primarily a defensive position, Banks was the greatest hitting shortstop of his time. But then, in part two of his career, when he moved to an offensive position (first base), let’s just say he didn’t remind anybody of Willie McCovey.

So what happened when Banks finally appeared on a Hall of Fame ballot? He cruised to first-ballot election in 1977, with 83.8 percent of the vote. And why do we tell this tale of Mr. Cub at a time like this? Because it seems instructive to how voters could view Mauer in his first go-round on this ballot.

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Joe Mauer ‘humbled and honored’ to be considered for Cooperstown

In his 10 seasons as a catcher for the Twins, Mauer did stuff at the plate no catcher had ever done. Three batting titles. An MVP award. A 135 OPS+. That’s not just greatness at that position. That’s historic greatness — for a full decade, remember.

But then concussions forced him to spend the last five seasons of his career at first base. And you know how that went. In his time at first, Mauer batted only .278, slugged a minuscule .388, never made another All-Star team and never showed up on a single MVP ballot. So now that his debut on the Hall ballot has finally arrived, here’s the question:

Why wouldn’t the voters treat him like they once treated Ernie Banks? At a position where he played 10 seasons, Mauer was clearly way over the Hall of Fame line. So how heavily does he deserve to be penalized for honoring his contract by playing another position, where he wasn’t That Guy?

On a ballot that’s jammed with so many fun first-ballot names — Beltré, Utley, David Wright, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, etc. — nobody is a more fascinating candidate to watch than the pride of St. Paul, Joe Mauer. But where is his vote total headed? That, my friends, is the reason columns like this exist.


(Top photo of Adrián Beltré in 2012: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)

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Bowden’s 24 predictions for the 2023-2024 MLB season: signings, trades, hires and more https://usmail24.com/mlb-offseason-predictions-2023-signings-trades/ https://usmail24.com/mlb-offseason-predictions-2023-signings-trades/#respond Wed, 08 Nov 2023 20:03:44 +0000 https://usmail24.com/mlb-offseason-predictions-2023-signings-trades/

Free agency officially started Monday, but the managers, not the players, stole the show, culminating in the Cubs’ stunning move to land Craig Counsell. To be honest, I still am shocked following yesterday’s series of management moves, which also included the hirings of the Mets (Carlos Mendoza) and Guardians (Stephen Vogt). Another unpredictable MLB season […]

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Free agency officially started Monday, but the managers, not the players, stole the show, culminating in the Cubs’ stunning move to land Craig Counsell. To be honest, I still am shocked following yesterday’s series of management moves, which also included the hirings of the Mets (Carlos Mendoza) and Guardians (Stephen Vogt).

Another unpredictable MLB season is upon us and while the trades and signings haven’t really started yet, we’ve seen some notable transactions, including several teams exercising club options on potential free agents like Alex Cobb (Giants), José Leclerc (Rangers) and Kyle Hendricks (Cubs). We’ve seen teams cut ties with the faces of their franchise, as the White Sox declined their option on Tim Anderson and the Reds did the same with Joey Votto. We’ve seen players like Eduardo Rodriguez and Marcus Stroman opt out of contracts (with the Tigers and Cubs, respectively) and players like Josh Bell opt out of contracts (with the Marlins). We even saw a trade, when the Tigers acquired Mark Canha from the Brewers for a minor league reliever. The Marlins have hired Peter Bendix as president of baseball operations and the Red Sox selected Craig Breslow as their chief baseball officer. Do you have all that?

The big steps, which will keep us on the edge of our seats for weeks, are yet to come. So let’s try to guess how this could all turn out. Here are 24 predictions for the 2023-2024 offseason, which should be another fun and wild winter. Share your own predictions in the comments section.

GO DEEPER

Top 40 MLB Free Agents: Contract Predictions, Best Team Fit for Ohtani, Yamamoto and more


1. None of the seven players who received the $20.325 million one-year qualifying offer (Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Josh Hader, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray) will accept it, as they all aim to a longer-term deals in free agency.

2. Ohtani will surprise many by signing with the world champion Texas Rangers. The contract includes incentives, escalator clauses and compensation bonuses that will make him the highest-paid player in the history of the sport. The Dodgers and Mariners finish second in the Shohei sweepstakes.

3. Aaron Nola signed a five-year, $125 million deal with the Dodgers about 24 hours after learning they lost Ohtani.

4. The Phillies, after falling short in their efforts to bring back Nola, quickly turned around and signed lefty Jordan Montgomery to a five-year, $127 million contract.


Juan Soto will be a free agent after next season. Will the Padres trade him? (Brad Penner/USA Today)

5. The Yankees are making a blockbuster trade with the Padres to land three-time All-Star Juan Soto. And then …

6. … New York turns around and signs Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a seven-year, $211 million deal that ultimately pushes the Yankees payroll to its highest level ever under owner Hal Steinbrenner.

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7. The Giants are signing outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to the largest contract of any position player in this year’s free-agent class aside from Ohtani, Bellinger and Chapman.

8. The Cubs are bringing back Bellinger on a six-year, $144 million deal to play first base.

9. The Astros hire Joe Espada as their next manager, promoting him after six seasons as their bench coach.

10. Managers Lou Piniella and Jim Leyland will be elected to the Hall of Fame during voting at the Winter Meetings by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee.


After a 101-win season, will the Orioles expand their young core? (Tommy Gilligan/USA Today)

11. The Orioles shock the baseball world, signing both Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson to franchise-record-breaking long-term deals. In response, O’s fans break the season ticket sales record during the Angelos family’s ownership period.

12. The Dodgers’ Julio Urías and the Rays’ Wander Franco will face long-term suspensions following reviews of their respective cases, leaving both ineligible for Major League baseball in 2024.

13. The Twins, coming off an AL Central-winning campaign, remain patient and don’t make any major moves this offseason.

14. The Angels are turning to one of their own, hiring Darin Erstad as their new manager to succeed Phil Nevin.

15. The Washington Nationals are ultimately sold and the new ownership group includes future Hall of Fame executive Theo Epstein, who will serve as the club’s CEO and president.

16. Bruce Bochy of the Rangers and Skip Schumaker of the Marlins are named managers of the year for their respective leagues. Bochy general manager Chris Young is named MLB Executive of the Year.

17. Joe Maddon and Buck Showalter will not be hired as managers this season. Both, along with Dusty Baker, never succeed in the majors again. Baker ends up serving as a consultant to a team while waiting for the call from Cooperstown.


The Cardinals missed Yadier Molina in 2023. Could he return to the dugout in 2024? (Jeff Curry/USA Today)

18. Yadier Molina joins the Cardinals coaching staff and becomes the most prominent manager-in-waiting in the sport.

19. The much-discussed move of the Oakland A to Las Vegas is approved by the MLB. The A’s will play the 2024 season at the Coliseum and the next three years in Vegas at their Triple-A field, which is being upgraded to serve as their home until a new major league stadium is built.

20. MLB begins more concrete discussions about expansion, but specifies that it won’t happen for another five to seven years. Nashville, Charlotte and Montreal will be early favorites to land new franchises. The league plans to have four divisions of four teams in each league.

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21. MLB adopts the Automated Ball-Strike System with a challenge format for the 2024 season.

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22. Shohei Ohtani and Ronald Acuña Jr. are named the MVPs of their respective leagues.

23. Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell have been named Cy Young Award winners.

24. Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll take home Rookie of the Year honors.

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(Top photo of Shohei Ohtani: John McCoy / Getty Images)

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