Balloons float over Taiwan before an election. Experts see a sign from China.

The balloon flights can still be part of it the ‘gray zone’ tactic which China uses to warn Taiwan of its military strength and capabilities, without falling into a bare-bones confrontation. The timing of the balloon flights, just before Taiwan’s elections, was significant, he said Ko Yong Sen, a research associate at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, a think tank in Taipei funded by Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense. Mr. Ko did that analyzed the pattern of recent observations.

“It’s more of an intimidation effect at a rather sensitive time, as we in Taiwan have our elections on January 13,” Mr. Ko said in an interview. China, he said, “may want to tone it down a bit. People say it has recklessly used big weapons like planes and ships for intimidation, so it has shifted to balloons that can be used for certain types of intimidation and lower intensity intimidation.”

The elections will see Taiwanese voters choose a president and legislature, and Beijing has made no secret of its desire to see the ruling Democratic Progressive Party lose power. The party opposes Beijing’s claims to Taiwan and has reaffirmed Taiwan’s distinctive identity and claims to the nation. Decades ago the party supported Taiwan’s independence, but now says it accepts the more ambiguous status quo of democratic self-determination.

Lai Ching-te, the Democratic Progressive Party’s presidential candidate, topped most polls through Wednesday. But Hou Yu-ih, the candidate for the Nationalist Party, which favors closer ties with China, is only a few percentage points behind Mr Lai. in some recent studiesand the Nationalists could emerge as the largest party in the legislature, ending the Democratic Progressive Party’s majority.

When asked late last month about the first reports of balloons near Taiwan, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian did not confirm or deny flights, but suggested thatSince Taiwan was part of China, any dispute over balloons crossing the median line between the two sides was moot. He also accused the Democratic Progressive Party of stoking the issue “to cheat votes.”