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Trump and the fun factor

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When Donald Trump was indicted on criminal charges in New York City two months ago, I tried to make sense of the political spat with my colleague Nate Cohn, the Times’ chief political analyst. After delving into traditional fundraising and polling markers, Nate mentioned another standard I’ve been pondering over the past few days: Do Trump’s legal challenges make him more (or less) likeable?

The question is tricky because it suggests that the reasons some Americans are drawn to politicians are separate from the seriousness of their position. But after Trump’s arraignment in federal court in Miami this week, I’m reminded of its importance. Nate didn’t like Trump as a matter of course, but rather identified a group of voters who are attracted to showmanship and celebrity, separate themselves from Trump’s base, and follow politics only casually or not at all.

These voters are important to Trump’s 2024 campaign. Five percent of Trump’s 2016 voters were not involved in politics, a study by the Democracy Funda pro-democracy group, found, and that’s the kind of margin that made all the difference in such a close battle.

What distinguishes this group? Maybe you have a friend who doesn’t care about politics but can’t believe Trump said THAT. Or who recognizes the disparaging nicknames he gave Republicans in the 2016 primary, such as “Little Marco” Rubio and “Lyin’ Ted” Cruz, nicknames that have stuck outside Republican circles.

Such awareness is part of the effect of Trump’s celebrity and ability to attract attention in a way that no other candidate can. When Trump was at his political peak, that quality extended from his most ardent supporters to political outsiders who were attracted to his style — or at least entertained by it.

However, in the run-up to the 2024 election, Trump’s campaign for supporters is failing to live up to its 2016 efforts. In both of Trump’s indictments, the number of people who showed up to the courthouse to defend him was smaller than expected. I’ve heard from Republican leaders — on Capitol Hill and in states with early elections like Iowa — saying they’ve gotten fewer calls to defend Trump than they expected. Even his return to CNN last month at a widely criticized town hall fell short of the ratings Trump once issued for cable networks.

Perhaps most importantly, Trump himself looks miserable. Even with Republican voters largely rallying behind him, and while he remains the frontrunner to secure the Republican nomination despite his successive legal troubles, he seems to be grappling with the reality that his freedom is under threat.

“Some birthday,” he grunted in Miami this week, ignoring an obvious attempt by supporters to cheer him up the week he turned 77.

According to my colleagues Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman, who have closely followed Trump’s political career, his speech in New Jersey following his indictment dragged down, rather than boosted, the party’s mood. Trump turned what was meant to be a moment of defiance into a familiar litany of grievances. He was citing the tone of personal victimization that Republicans have told me cost their votes in the 2022 midterm elections when Trump focused on the lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him.

It’s not just that the charges are distracting Trump from expressing an affirmative vision for the country. They can also keep him from being the freest version of himself.

In a competitive Republican primary where another candidate could gain traction in the electorate (a possibility yet to be seen), Trump’s inability to evoke his freewheeling style is the kind of hard-to-quantify factor that could keep him from winning votes. – and leave opportunities for opponents.

Trump could, of course, return at any time to the casual approach that earned him so much attention in 2016 and since. His main Republican competitors are already afraid how much media attention they will lose to his charges this summer, my colleagues Jonathan Swan and Jonathan Weisman reported.

Still, these factors are part of the reason many Democrats feel good about a possible match between President Biden and Trump. They argue that the electorate is simply exhausted by the chaos he has brought to national politics and that his legal troubles are a reminder of that aspect of his presidency. What was once fun (for some) isn’t anymore.

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“Our goal was mostly to have fun,” says Kevin Laferriere, a comedian who posts about his family life on TikTok. “Then we heard from dads saying sincere things like, ‘I’m the only stay-at-home dad I know, and your content made me feel seen.'”

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