2024 will be the hottest year on record, EU scientists claim
Forecasts from the European Climate Agency indicate that 2024 is on track to be the warmest year on record. The average temperature on Earth is expected to rise more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. If achieved, this increase will mark an important moment, as this will be the first calendar year in which this critical threshold is exceeded. The extreme temperatures are mainly attributed to human-induced climate change and are also partly amplified by the El Niño weather pattern, which releases additional heat into the atmosphere. This development comes just days ahead of COP29, the UN climate summit in Azerbaijan, which is reinforcing calls for immediate global climate action.
Experts see this latest data as a warning sign for world leaders. Dr. Liz Bentley, Chief Executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, stressed the need for urgent action to curb future warming, to emphasize that each annual breakthrough brings the world closer to exceeding the long-term warming target of 1.5 degrees Celsius. This target, set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement, aimed to prevent serious impacts from climate change by limiting temperature increases over 20 years. However, data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service now suggests that 2024 could surpass the previous record of 1.48 degrees Celsius set in 2023 by reaching at least 1.55 degrees Celsius.
Influence of El Niño and lasting temperature trends
The El Niño phase, which started in mid-2023 and ended in early 2024, contributed to the high temperatures observed this year. Despite the end of this warming phase, global temperatures have remained high, continually breaking daily records. According to climate scientists, this extreme heat has worsened weather-related disasters worldwide, including more intense storms and prolonged heat waves. Professor Ed Hawkins, a climate scientist from the University of Reading, expressed concern about the long-term implications of this trend, indicating that global warming was likely to set new records in the coming years if emissions continue to rise.
Rising temperatures and possible long-term consequences
High levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to maintain the warming trend. This could potentially lead to another record year in 2025. Scientists predict that without a significant drop in emissions, global temperatures could rise by more than 3 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, which could worsen climate-related disasters.
