2025 NFL Draft: Giants next three games will go a long way in determining the draft spot

Well, was it worth it, New York Giants fans? “DeVito mania” added some much-needed fun to a disastrous 2023 season, but in retrospect it’s pretty easy to see that the consequences of that fun were also disastrous. There’s no way around it: Tommy DeVito’s three-game winning streak last year cost the team a top-three pick and the chance to add one of the top three quarterbacks selected in the NFL Draft from 2024.

Instead, the Giants had to settle for the sixth pick — after failing to trade for Drake Maye — while missing the opportunity to draft Michael Penix Jr., JJ McCarthy and Bo Nix. Relitigating that decision is a story for another time, but as DeVito prepares to take charge of the Giants once again, it’s worth remembering what happened last year when the QB led the Giants to a led to a number of valuable victories.

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Will he do it again this year? We’ll find out soon, but if he does, it could be even more expensive. It’s believed that this crop of draft-eligible quarterbacks in 2025 won’t be nearly as strong as last year, and it’s possible that only one or two will emerge as players worth drafting in the first round to be selected.

For the QB-desperate Giants, this means depth positioning is paramount.

There is good news on that front: they are not facing an easy future. Of their seven remaining games, our NFL projection model has them favored in just one (against Dallas on Thanksgiving).

It should go without saying that no one should expect the Giants to lose on purpose. They’re not going to refuel.

“I think we all have to commit to doing everything we can to finish the season the right way,” Giants coach Brian Daboll said recently.

It’s clear that winning games is what Daboll is supposed to do. It’s probably also in his best interest when it comes to job security. But the fact remains that losing and securing the highest possible draft pick is probably the best outcome for the future of the franchise.

Through that lens, the next three games are the most crucial for the Giants. As you can see in the chart above, on paper they look like the most winnable games for New York, although Week 17 against the Colts is also close.

First up are the Buccaneers (4-6), who are coming off a four-game losing streak but are getting healthier after their bye week. Still, it’s a good time for DeVito to debut, with Tampa Bay’s defense putting up some atrocious stats over the past four weeks: It ranks last in the league in EPA/play (-0.20), according to TruMedia. But while DeVito seems primed for some success, so could Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield. The Giants’ defense ranks 31st in opponent passer rating at 104.7.

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After the Bucs game, the Giants have a short week and then fly to Dallas for a Thanksgiving Day division game with the Cowboys (3-7). These two teams have played each other before, although that Week 4 game (a 20-15 Cowboys win at MetLife Stadium) feels like ages ago. Neither team looks the same as it did in September. In fact, neither team will even start the same quarterback. This one looks like it will be DeVito vs. Cooper Rush, as opposed to Daniel Jones vs. Dak Prescott.

The Cowboys’ season was derailed two weeks after that win over the Giants. They were pounded 47-9 by the Detroit Lions in Week 6, snapping a five-game losing streak. During that stretch they also lost Prescott to a season-ending hamstring injury, which has turned out to be a disaster. Suffice it to say, this game can get ugly quickly.

Last in this crucial three-game stretch are the Saints (4-7), who are on a two-game winning streak since firing coach Dennis Allen and promoting Darren Rizzi. New Orleans looks rejuvenated under its interim head coach, but who knows how long that will last?

Listen…if your team stinks, it’s a tough year as an NFL fan. You can’t get around that. @ConorOrr and I tried to find a silver lining for every team battling through a losing season.

Including the New York Giants.

Full show: pic.twitter.com/u2uU6kEUyj

— Robert Mays (@robertmays) November 20, 2024

Current draft positioning

Heading into Week 12, the Giants are in third place, behind the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) and the Tennessee Titans (2-8). according to Tankathon. Although the Giants and Titans have the same record, the Titans would get the better draft pick due to their inferior strength of schedule.

As this season comes to a close, that will be an important number to keep an eye on. The strength of schedule is the first tiebreaker the league uses to determine draft position between teams with the same record. The team with the lowest strength of schedule, the total winning percentage of a team’s opponents, gets the better pick. Right now, that’s bad news for the Giants. Their schedule strength (.520) is one of the highest among the teams competing for the No. 1 pick.

What that means for Giants fans in terms of rooting interest, however, is simple: root against anyone who has played the Giants or will play the rest of the year. The more losses these teams pile up, the lower the Giants’ schedule becomes.

As for which teams Giants fans should root for, it’s pretty much any team with four wins or fewer. There are many at the moment, fourteen to be precise. However, the good news for Giants fans hoping to make the best choice is that the team has a good chance.

According to our projection model, the Giants currently have a 12 percent chance of becoming No. 1. That trails only the QB-needy Raiders (35 percent) and puts them ahead of the Browns (11 percent), who may have done the Giants a huge favor by winning Thursday night. They entered Thursday with a 28 percent chance of securing the top pick.

Here are the odds for the remaining teams with two and three wins:

• Titans (10 percent)
• Jaguars (10 percent)
• Patriots (8 percent)
• Panthers (7 percent)
• Cowboys (4 percent)
• Jets (3 percent)

As the Giants enter the final stages of their season, there is little doubt that it is in their best interest to lose most, if not all, of their remaining games. As a fan, that’s not always easy to make the case for, but for those who need motivation, all you have to do is look back at last season and see what “DeVito mania” cost the Giants.

(Photo by Tommy DeVito: Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)