2025 NFL Draft: Projection model ranks 5 teams most likely to pick No. 1 overall
In the final minutes of the Carolina Panthers’ win over the New York Giants last Sunday, I started thinking about how the outcome would impact the 2025 NFL Draft.
Even ten weeks into the season, many teams still have a legitimate shot at landing the No. 1 pick. Eleven teams currently have only two or three wins, so every loss counts. And some are more important than others when you’re talking about the draft order. The Giants’ loss to the equally putrid Panthers gives New York a much better chance to secure a spot at the top of the draft than Carolina has now.
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But are the 2-8 Giants the favorites to land the No. 1 pick? No. Not according to my NFL projection model.
Using the model, we will analyze the five teams that have the best chance of securing the top spot in the draft. As a reminder, the model simulates the season more than 100,000 times to arrive at the most likely outcomes. And while these simulations are typically used for playoff and Super Bowl projections, they do not discriminate against bad teams and can also project draft order.
One of the most important factors in figuring out which team is most likely to pick No. 1 is simply record. That’s painfully obvious, but it needs to be said. A single win can make a big difference: Remember when the New York Jets’ back-to-back wins over the Los Angeles Rams and Cleveland Browns a few years ago cost them the opportunity to draft Trevor Lawrence? The second big part of this equation is each team’s remaining schedule. When we take into account a team’s record and remaining strength of schedule, we can paint a pretty good picture of who is most likely to get the chance to draft their next franchise quarterback or Colorado’s two-way star, Travis Hunter – the new number 1 on the list. Dane Brugler’s most recent large board.
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Raiders odds to pick No. 1: 30 percent
Why are the Raiders No. 1? Two reasons. First, they have the twelfth toughest schedule for the rest of the season. Second, my projection sees the Raiders as the second-worst team in the NFL, behind only the Panthers. And honestly, if you told me the Panthers would outperform the Raiders by the end of the season, I’d believe it. The Panthers appear to have a direction within their organization. I’m not sure the Raiders can say the same.
The Raiders will play five teams in the playoff race the rest of the way and two others — the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints — who are expected to get healthier as the season progresses and won’t be easy wins by any means .
Main remaining game: Week 16 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)
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Giants’ odds of picking No. 1: 15 percent
Like I said, losing to the Panthers was huge for the Giants’ draft position. Not only do they now own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Panthers – when it comes down to it, strength of schedule is the first tiebreaker in determining draft positioning – but the Giants lost! No team want to lose, but for a team in dire need of a quarterback, losing the rest of the way is in its best interest (although you could probably say that about most of the teams on this list).
The Giants face an average schedule the rest of the way (18th toughest), which, combined with the loss to the Panthers, puts them at No. 2 in these rankings.
Main remaining game: Week 14 vs. New Orleans (3-7)
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Panthers odds to pick No. 1: 12 percent
While it will benefit the Panthers if they lose games, they are likely prioritizing the maturation of 2023 No. 1 pick and starting quarterback Bryce Young. The Panthers will certainly benefit from adding high-quality talent to their roster, but Young bouncing back from the disastrous start to his career would be much more beneficial if they look to turn things around. And if that means a few more wins and a slightly worse draft position, then so be it.
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In terms of schedule, the Panthers sit in the middle of the table with an average remaining schedule (15th). The nice thing for them is that I project them as the worst team in the NFL (mainly because of their defense), so wins will be hard to come by. The only team with three wins or less that they will face for the rest of the season is the Dallas Cowboys. However, their Week 13 matchup against the Bucs is the one to circle as they have a good chance of pulling off an upset there, which would hugely hurt their chances of picking the No. 1 pick.
Main remaining game: Week 13 vs. Tampa Bay (4-6)
Browns chances to pick No. 1: 10 percent
The Browns are in the all-too-familiar position of being on the cusp of a top-five pick. While this franchise has been moving in the right direction in some ways over the last few years, it looks like the Deshaun Watson deal is on the verge of a comeback.
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Now, the Browns are probably the best team on this list — and in some ways they are — but they’re playing the fifth-hardest remaining schedule. That’s going to take its toll on the win column.
The fate of the Browns’ first-round pick next year will likely hinge on the next three weeks. Cleveland faces New Orleans at home in what should be a coin game, although the Browns should probably be the favorite in that one. They then play the Pittsburgh Steelers at home on “Thursday Night Football” before taking on the Denver Broncos. If they overachieve in that stretch, they’ll be out of the running for the No. 1 pick, but an 0-3 run would give them a good chance at the first pick.
Main remaining game: Week 11 in New Orleans
Jaguars’ odds of picking No. 1: 9 percent
This one is the toughest because of the uncertainty surrounding Lawrence’s injury. I project Lawrence to miss four weeks, so that puts the Jags ahead of the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans for the No. 5 spot on this list. However, if he returns sooner and is healthy, the Titans — who have two games remaining against Jacksonville — would move up to this spot.
That said, the Jags have been atrocious this year, even with Lawrence in the lineup. They have a relatively easy run, so they could start winning, but even with Lawrence expected to return, it’s hard to see this team winning more than five games.
The most important part of the Jaguars’ schedule is Weeks 16 and 17 against the Raiders and Titans. If Lawrence returns, they will be favored in those games. If he doesn’t, they’re underdogs.
Main remaining game: Week 17 vs. Tennessee (2-7)
Five more teams with the best odds to pick No. 1
• New England Patriots (3-7): 9 percent
• Tennessee Titans: 8 percent
• Dallas Cowboys (3-6): 3 percent
• New York Jets (3-7): 2 percent
• New Orleans Saints: 2 percent
(Photo: Adam Pretty/Getty Images)
