2025 Social Security COLA: Experts Predict You’ll Get So Much More Money
If you receive Social Security benefits, you may want to mark your calendars for mid-October, since that’s the date the Social Security Administration typically releases the following year’s Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA). The SSA makes an annual adjustment to account for inflation in the form of a percentage increase.
The adjustment affects monthly benefits for individuals enrolled in the Social Security program, including the standard Social Security benefit, as well as SSDI, SSI and others. Exactly how much will be added to your monthly check won’t be revealed until the official COLA is released, but experts who track inflation trends have been able to make predictions with impressive accuracy.
The latest forecast points to a lower increase compared to 2024’s 3.2%. Below are the latest expert predictions for the 2025 COLA. We’ll continue to provide updates as more are announced, including the official SSA COLA increase that should be released in a few weeks.
For more information, don’t miss the four actions that could cost you your Social Security benefits and how to apply for Social Security Disability Insurance.
What is the Social Security COLA?
To keep up with the effects of inflation, Social Security recipients typically receive an annual cost-of-living adjustment with their January check. The adjustment is based on the average change over time in the prices paid for consumer goods and services and is determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Department of Labor. The Social Security Administration sets the COLA in the third quarter of each year.
Which government benefits are adjusted using COLA?
Social Security isn’t the only government benefit affected by the COLA. Social Security Disability Insurance, Supplemental Security Income, Medicare, and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (including food stamps and other programs) all use the COLA to account for inflation when setting benefits.
What Experts Predict the 2025 COLA Will Be
The Senior Citizens Associationan independent advocacy group for seniors, has predicted a lower COLA for 2025 compared to 3.2% in 2024The latest predictions from the League point to a COLA of 2.5%, which is slightly lower than the August forecast of 2.57%.
If the 2025 COLA is 2.5%, that would equate to a $48 increase in the monthly benefit, bringing the average monthly total to $1,968. The League also points out that while the latest forecast is lower than in recent years, 2.5% is still within the 20-year historical average of 2.6%.
The adjustment is being closely watched by seniors, as the annual COLA change is designed to help them keep up with rising costs. And while the annual COLA increase has been as high as 8.7% in recent years, some say that’s not enough to cover inflation. According to a survey by the Senior Citizens League69% of respondents said their household expenses rose faster than the COLA last year, with food and housing costs being the highest.
COLA increases year on year
| Year | Increase compared to last year |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 3.2% |
| 2023 | 8.7% |
| 2022 | 5.9% |
| 2021 | 1.3% |
| 2020 | 1.6% |
Note: The Social Security Administration typically announces the adjustment in the second week of October. The new rate goes into effect the following January.
Please note that these are estimates and can change each month based on the previous month’s inflation. While they are usually somewhat in line with the official rate, they are not always accurate.
For more information, read why SSI recipients aren’t getting benefits this month and what to do if you received too much monthly benefit.
