India
Maharashtra election results: Congress’s best and worst ever show in the state; ‘Traitors’ Shinde and Pawar prove they are true heirs | India News – Times of India
The Ladki Bahin Yojana, the cash transfer scheme for women, is widely seen as a game changer. The consolidation of the OBC vote and the pro-Hindutva vote has acted as a force multiplier.
For the Mahayuti alliance of BJP, CM Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP, this is a remarkable turnaround. The BJP, apart from scoring a hat-trick of victories in the parliamentary elections (crossing the 100-seat mark each time), has won its largest-ever mandate in the state, with the tally of 132 surpassing the tally of 122 in 2014. The victory, led by Vice Chairman CM Devendra Fadnavis, heralds his return as a strong contender for the top position.
It is also the worst ever showing for the Congress in its erstwhile bastion Maharashtra (which sends the largest number of MPs to Lok Sabha after UP). During the Modi wave of 2014, the party was reduced to 42 seats. Now it has managed to win less than half that number, with just 16 seats.
Equally importantly, the verdict has legitimized Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. They can now claim to be the true heirs to the party leadership. Shiv Sena has won 57 seats compared to Shiv Sena’s (UBT) 20. And Ajit Pawar’s NCP has won 41 seats, compared to NCP’s (Sharad Pawar) 10 seats.
Uddhav Thackeray, who was appointed party chief by his father Bal Thackeray, could be staring into political oblivion having lost control of the party’s voting base to a non-Thackeray. For 84-year-old Sharad Pawar, whose pragmatic political stance has helped him play long innings, this marks an existential crisis and perhaps the end of the road for the party he envisioned.
The Ladki Bahin plan, among other sops, a good monsoon and counter-consolidation of OBCs in response to Maratha quota aggression during the LS polls, were factors that persisted across regions to bring about a saffron wave.
The consolidation of Hindutva through slogans like Yogi Adityanath’s ‘Batenge Toh Katenge’ tapped into concerns within the Hindu community that the Muslim vote had consolidated behind MVA.
Within Mahayuti, the BJP has achieved a strike rate of 88.5%, with victories in 132 of the 149 seats contested. This is all the more impressive as the party contested the largest number of seats of the six main parties. Shiv Sena’s pass percentage was 70.4% while that of NCP was 69.4%. Within MVA, Shiv Sena has the highest strike rate of 21%, winning 20 of the 95 seats contested. Congress’ strike rate is 15.8% while that of the NCP (SP) is 11.6%.
Observers also said Mahayuti’s setback in the LS polls was largely a vote against the incumbent, and not against the state leadership. “There was an anti-Modi mood in the LS polls and a concerted campaign by the INDIA bloc. The concerns about changing the Constitution if the BJP had absolute majority was a major issue,” said an NCP member.
In Vidarbha and Marathwada, where farmers’ anger over low cotton and soybean crop prices was expected to go against the government, Mahayuti emerged victorious. The opposition was unable to exploit the issue and Mahayuti countered this by offering up to 20% support to MSP to cover price fluctuations if elected. In the run-up to the elections, the country had also announced a free energy program for farmers with agricultural pumps up to 7.5 HP.
In Marathwada, the Maratha quota agitation had scarred the BJP in the LS polls, leading to the defeat of stalwarts like Raosaheb Danve and Pankaja Munde. But Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange’s impact waned in these elections after he withdrew his initial plan to field candidates. Counter-consolidation of OBCs in response to the Maratha agitation helped BJP.
In north Maharashtra, Mahayuti suffered a major setback in the LS polls due to export restrictions on onion crop. Ahead of the Assembly elections, Center has reduced export duties on onions and abolished minimum export price.
In western Maharashtra, where NCP factions were expected to clash, Ajit Pawar’s party dominated. This is mainly because most of the NCP’s satraps, who have a following in their constituencies irrespective of their party affiliations, had aligned themselves with Ajit Pawar. Their control over the national network of cooperative sugar mills, banks and dairies helped them get through.
In the largely urban Konkan and Mumbai metropolitan region, Mahayuti’s dominance in the LS polls continued during the Assembly elections. In Mumbai, once the Shiv Sena stronghold, the BJP dominated with fifteen seats. Sena UBT won a respectable 10 seats, higher than Eknath Shinde’s 6 seats. Sena UBT won the Mahim seat where Shiv Sena Bhavan is located.
But ultimately, it was Mahayuti’s recognition of the growing number of women voters that paid him the biggest dividends. The gender ratio among women voters has increased from 929 in 2011 to 933 in 2024. Ladki Bahin Yojana, inspired by the MP’s Ladli Behna scheme, has been crucial to Mahayuti’s victory. It provides a monthly allowance of Rs 1,500 to underprivileged women between the ages of 21 and 65 with an annual household income of less than Rs 2.5 lakh. Mahayuti promised to increase it to Rs 2,100 if elected, claiming that MVA would stop the scheme if voted to power.
Over 2.4 crore women received the grant in their bank accounts on voting day. Many had received stipend worth Rs 7,500 in three installments. The installments were rolled out in August, while the November stipend was paid in October to circumvent the code of conduct.
Besides, the state also announced three free gas cylinders for 52 lakh households and free higher education for girls from families with an annual income of less than Rs 8 lakh. It is clear that the women-focused programs enthused women voters as there was a six percentage point increase in women voter turnout in the state – from 59.2% in the 2019 Assembly elections to 65.2%.
