NILE GARDINER: The longer this war continues under bumbling Joe Biden, the more it endangers us all. That’s why Donald Trump is our best hope for averting World War III

Donald Trump claims he will negotiate an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine “on day one” of his presidency, in January next year.

The new Leader of the Free World is known for his tough language and uncompromising approach. It is likely that he will demand urgent peace talks once he returns to the White House, but implementing an immediate ceasefire will be a huge challenge.

Still, President Trump is determined to make a deal and I believe he could be our best hope for averting World War III.

The past four years have been catastrophic for global stability. As American influence waned under Joe Biden’s sclerotic administration, we have seen a succession of threats emerge in response to American weakness.

In Afghanistan, the chaotic and hasty withdrawal of allied forces allowed the Taliban to withdraw, despite all the promises of Western leaders. Biden’s lack of leadership in this area proved a total humiliation for the United States.

It sent a clear signal to the communists in Beijing that they could expand aggressively without US opposition. The message was heard even more clearly in Moscow, where Vladimir Putin calculated that if Russia invaded Ukraine, America might protest, but there would be no full-scale war with NATO. It is highly unlikely that Russia would have dared to march on Kiev in 2022 if Trump had been in power.

Putin, of course, did not count on the tenacity of Ukrainian resistance, nor on the way Britain under Boris Johnson would unite European opposition to Putin’s so-called ‘special operation’. But the Kremlin dictator was correct in his assessment of Biden’s lack of resolve.

In Tehran, the ayatollahs saw this too. Iran’s military rise, using proxy armies in Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and Yemen, has been blatant, as has its pursuit of a nuclear weapon.

Donald Trump is known for his tough language and uncompromising approach. He is determined to make a deal and I believe he could be our best hope for averting World War III, writes NILE GARDINER.

As US influence waned under Joe Biden’s sclerotic administration, we have seen a succession of threats emerge in response to US weakness

All eyes are currently on Putin and his willingness to use nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

But an even greater threat of all-out nuclear war will threaten the world if Ali Khamenei and his mullahs manage to build an atomic device with a working detonator. Their fanaticism is so great that it is not unlikely that they would be willing to use it against Israel.

Trump understands all this, and he recognizes that the US is the only superpower on earth with the power to prevent it. He wouldn’t have allowed Iran to become the international bully state it is today, just as he took down North Korea when Kim Jong-Un (the man Trump called “little rocket man”) started testing missiles toward of America. .

It is also unlikely that Hamas would have committed the sickening October 7 atrocities last year if Biden had not been in power. The Gaza terrorists took advantage of American weakness, with horrific consequences for everyone.

This combination of disasters has brought the planet to the brink of an all-consuming conflagration. At this point, Biden’s extremely risky decision to allow American defenders to fire long-range weapons at Russia has been met with a new wave of Russian aggression.

These ATACM missiles (pronounced ‘Attack-em’) have been used on targets deep behind Russian lines. But they failed to deliver a decisive blow.

And the immediate result was that Putin was given the exact excuse that he wanted to test his own latest long-range missiles, the hypersonic Rubezh weapon.

One exploded over the city of Dnipro last Thursday, fired from Russia’s remote region of Astrakhan, more than 400 miles away, and traveling that distance in just 10 minutes, according to Reuters news agency.

Biden’s extremely risky decision to allow US long-range weapons to be fired at Russia by Ukraine’s defenders has been accompanied by a new wave of Russian aggression – and given Vladimir Putin the excuse that he wanted to test his own latest long-range weapons. range missiles

This time the charge consisted of conventional explosives. But the Rubezh is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead over a distance of more than 3,000 kilometers. If fired from this side of the Urals, it could hit London, Berlin or Paris within minutes. The result would be destruction and millions of deaths – as well as certain nuclear retaliations by NATO.

Putin could also feel emboldened by attacking Ukraine’s military supply chain, for example by hitting a depot outside the Polish border with a ballistic missile. If that were to happen, how would NATO respond?

One thing is certain: the current leadership vacuum in Washington under the Biden administration would falter and put us all at risk.

What advantage Biden saw in using ATACM missiles so late in the day is difficult to fathom. They are unlikely to be a game-changer and have undoubtedly created a more dangerous situation for Trump to inherit.

The truth is that we have seen little real strategic thinking from Biden and his advisers during the war in Ukraine. It is clumsy, stupid management.

Putin knows this and is strengthened by it. He sees Trump as a much more effective and powerful opponent, especially now that the returning president has an emphatic mandate from the voters – with a majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives, and any serious threats of legal action against him are likely to disappear.

Trump’s first step toward peace could be to reimpose restrictions on the use of U.S. weapons beyond Ukraine’s borders. Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky is well aware of this and will likely adjust his own battle plans accordingly.

A US decision to withdraw authorization to use ATACMs does not automatically mean that Britain and France will follow suit and suspend the use of Storm Shadow missiles. But the pressure will be on British and European allies to support the US strategy.

Ukrainian soldiers conduct exercises during military exercises on a training ground. As tragic as it is, Ukraine faces a monumental task to regain all the territory it has lost to Russia since 2014.

It is essential for future peace that Putin cannot be allowed to annex any more of Ukraine, and Trump is all too aware of how Russia’s Kursk region, where Kiev has made a major incursion , by Zelensky can be used as a bargaining chip in any form. peace agreement.

But it is also essential that the war does not drag on. As tragic as it is, Ukraine faces a very difficult task to regain all the territory it has lost to Russia since 2014 – even President Zelensky admits that occupied Crimea cannot be taken back by force of arms.

And the longer the war drags on, the more it escalates, endangering the world, pushing Europe closer to all-out conflict and sucking up American resources desperately needed in other theaters like the Middle East and the Pacific, where we are confronted with an increasingly belligerent China.

Putin respects no one, but he recognizes the difference between strength and weakness. So will Trump – and he will be aware that the best way to weaken Putin will be to restore peace. This may be painful for Ukraine in the short term, but it will leave Moscow with a long-term problem.

The Russian economy is now completely dependent on war. When the fighting stops, arms production stops too, leading to massive unemployment and recession. Putin’s best hope for restoring financial stability will be for the West to lift sanctions.

That gives Trump all the power. Instead of lifting sanctions, he could threaten to impose even more sanctions. There are plenty of opportunities for the West to tighten its stranglehold on Moscow.

Many of Europe’s leaders are ideologically opposed to Trump, but there is no doubt that he will be able to strike a deal in his favor, and in America’s, that will ultimately benefit the entire planet.

– Nile Gardiner is a former assistant to Margaret Thatcher