NFL Thanksgiving, Black Friday roundtable: What Dolphins can prove, a new Caleb Williams?
Thanksgiving Day will have a bit of a different feel: the Lions are expected to roll, rivals or not, the Cowboys and Giants will play out the rope, and the best game of the holiday might be a nightcap, when the Dolphins try to stay warm in their room. cold Green Bay. And then there’s Black Friday: can the Chiefs finally put aside an inferior team?
Caleb Williams on the rise, a few coaches on the hot seat… The Athletics NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on all these storylines and more.
Caleb Williams has now played two games under new play-caller Thomas Brown. What are your impressions of both the quarterback and the offense: does the performance correspond to the better statistical output?
Jones: This Caleb Williams is much closer to the player the Bears were hoping to get. Since switching to Thomas Brown, he has become more accurate, decisive and plays with nice timing and rhythm for the most part. In his last two appearances under Shane Waldron, Williams was sacked six and nine times respectively, completed just 53 percent of his passes and ran the ball six times combined for 20 yards. Far too often, Williams was guilty of holding onto the ball for too long, trying to do too much and putting himself and the offense in unfavorable situations. But under Brown’s leadership, Williams is quicker off the ball and takes what the defense gives him: that improved decision-making and execution has led to better production. The quarterback has completed 74 and 68 percent of his passes, gaining 70 and 33 yards, respectively. Chicago still finds it hard to get wins; their losing streak has reached five games. But the Bears lost by just one point to a playoff team in Green Bay and took another talented team (Minnesota) to overtime, so things appear to be moving in the right direction.
Pompeii: Williams felt comfortable calling Brown because Brown’s willingness to rely on quick, rhythm passes has made it easier for the rookie. It appears Brown has a feel for how to take advantage of Williams’ abilities while minimizing some of the inefficiencies around him. When Williams went on the heater in late September/early October he was playing against much softer defenses, but over the last two weeks Williams has stepped up against two of the more challenging defenses he has faced. However, it will be more difficult from now on, starting on Thursday against the Lions. The next step for Williams will be scoring impact wins. It’s one thing to light up social media with big plays; it’s another one to light up the leaderboard.
Nguyen: With Thomas, it appears that all of the Bears’ receivers have been put in a position to play to their strengths. For example, DJ Moore struggled earlier this season, but he is being put in positions where he can catch screens, short passes and run after the catch, which is one of his best attributes. They even line him up in the backfield for handoffs and to create mismatches from that position. Brown has also used movement purposefully to create space in the passing game. Against the Vikings, Williams looked like he was confident in their blitz plan and it was executed – that’s a sign of good game planning and teaching. In his two games where Brown called, he had his best games of the season against the blitz, averaging 0.86 expected points per dropback, which is phenomenal. And whether it was Brown or a voice above, someone told Williams it’s okay to scramble and he’s racked up 103 rushing yards in the last two games combined. Before that, he did his utmost to prove that he is a pocket quarterback, which he is clearly improving at, but the offense is better when he threatens the defense with his legs. It’s just a sample of two games, but so many facets of the Bears’ offense look more defined and the results are visible on the field.
It appears the Giants and Cowboys are in control, but as for the future of head coaches Mike McCarthy and Brian Daboll, could a win in the rivalry game on Thanksgiving Day save the jobs of either?
Nguyen: It looks like Brian Daboll will be out no matter what, but it’s not all his fault. General Manager Joe Schoen signed Daniel Jones to a long-term contract when he didn’t need to and because of that contract they had to cut Jones, which was a bad message for the players. It looks like the team quit last Sunday. It’s hard to imagine their effort level will be much better on Thursday. I’m less sure about Mike McCarthy’s fate. After this disastrous season, all indications point to Jerry Jones going after a big name, but Jones is notoriously loyal to coaches and he could give McCarthy a pass because of all the injuries. Additionally, the front office didn’t do much to improve this roster and it caused problems with their unwillingness to pay their players, but they eventually did. I thought it was strange when Troy Aikman called McCarthy a great coach during a Monday night broadcast that the Cowboys were not a part of. Maybe McCarthy has more support than we think in Dallas.
Pompeii: Regardless of what has and hasn’t been said by the teams’ respective owners, the fate of both coaches has likely already been decided. However, a tough loss to the Cowboys on a national stage could hasten Jerry Jones’ move. It actually wouldn’t be surprising if McCarthy were replaced by Mike Zimmer this weekend if the Cowboys stumble. No team could withstand the Cowboys’ injuries without significant consequences, but Jones is tired of being kicked around. Changing head coaches is one of the few ways he can show that to his fan base.
Jones: I can’t imagine that the outcome of this match will impact the coach’s job one way or another. I know Jones said an extension remained a possibility for McCarthy, but come on. You can’t bring him back. It’s clear that the Cowboys have reached their ceiling under McCarthy’s leadership. There is too much talent on that roster for Dallas to consistently underperform like they have under his watch. I would keep Daboll though. I believe he is a good coach. He showed great creativity while serving as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator. Daniel Jones was simply awful, and GM Joe Schoen’s decision to let Saquon Barkley walk also hampered Daboll’s efforts. There aren’t many top talents on that roster. I would get rid of Schoen, but keep Daboll and give him more time to work on that roster.
Miami travels to Green Bay. The book on the Dolphins the past two seasons was that they would forfeit big games in cold weather. Are this year’s Dolphins built to last down the stretch and possibly into the postseason, especially with first-year defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver getting a lot out of a defense missing its top pass rushers?
Nguyen: There are some things the offense is doing better than last year, even if they haven’t been as productive. First, Tua Tagovailoa creates plays outside of structure, which hasn’t been his strong point in the NFL — perhaps his offseason weight loss is paying off. Second, he checks the ball more than he forces it to Tyreek Hill. Maybe it’s because Hill is dealing with a wrist injury, but the offense just flows more smoothly when Tagovailoa is willing to check the ball to Achane and Jonnu Smith, who is one of the top under-the-radar free agents of 2024. The defense was already playing at a high level late last year, but was struggling with injuries and was clearly never able to work well with former coordinator Vic Fangio. Maybe the defense plays harder for Weaver. However, they struggled against play-off teams last season. This year is no different. During their three-game win streak, they defeated the Rams, Patriots and Raiders – all three of these teams have losing records. If Miami wants to prove they are a stronger team, they need to beat the Packers.
Pompeii: We have to be careful not to read too much into what the Dolphins did in 2022 and ’23. This is a different team, a team that is evolving positively with three consecutive wins. And the Packers aren’t invincible in Lambeau; in fact, two of their losses have come at home. If the Dolphins can steal a win on Thursday (they’re a 3.5-point underdog), they’ll be well-positioned to make the playoffs, as they only have one team left on their schedule – the Texans – with a winning streak record.
Jones: This Dolphins team is definitely moving in the right direction. A healthy Tagovailoa has reignited the offense and Weaver’s defense has held opponents to under 20 points in each of the last three games (all wins). However, I still have questions. Those wins came against the Rams, Raiders and Patriots. Prior to the win streak, they fell short (30-27) against Buffalo. They still have some work to do before they get back into the playoff race; they need to keep winning and need swings from Denver (currently the seventh seed) and/or the Chargers. I’m going to defer judgment before declaring them capable of surviving the playoffs. I need to see quality wins against teams like Green Bay this week and Houston in Week 15 first.
We’ve written a lot about the Chiefs’ big breakouts in 2024, including last week in Carolina. What would you like to see from this Kansas City team, especially if they take on a Raiders team that eliminated them at home on Christmas Day last year?
Jones: Patrick Mahomes said it best: “I would love to win a game, not on the very last play.” That’s what I want to see from Kansas City. The Chiefs have proven they can win ugly and close. They really need to look like a legitimate Super Bowl contender and beat a bottom feeder like the Raiders. This includes clicking the attack and delivering the defense. There’s no reason why this game should be close – division foe or not, there’s a real talent disparity here. But Kansas City played at the level of the Raiders in the 27-20 Week 8 win, and they’ve done it against other undersized teams as well. Let’s see them look like the elite team they are truly capable of.
Pompeii: According to Mahomes, it would be nice to see the Chiefs put away an inferior opponent and win without it ultimately coming down to a few action items. For that to happen, their defense will have to play more like they did in late September/early October than they did over the last two weeks, when the Chiefs gave up 57 points. It would also help if they could generate more pressure with their front four, and if wide receivers could get open, latch onto Mahomes’ passes and run after the catch to make some big plays.
Nguyen: This offense needs to be more consistent. DeAndre Hopkins is quickly building a bond with Mahomes. They get back Isiah Pacheco, which will give them some much-needed explosiveness in the running game, and maybe they get Marquise Brown back. That’s a lot more firepower than they had at the start of the season. This is still a top-10 offense, but they always seem to do just enough. I want to see myself dominate from start to finish. The defense is still good, but they are not the suffocating unit that won them a Super Bowl last season. The offense will have to carry more of the burden if they want to three-peat.
(Photo: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
