Predicting the College Football Playoffs Rankings: It’s Alabama vs. SMU, Miami and the ACC
The College Football Playoff bracket was turned upside down again during Rivalry Week. What will the penultimate rankings of the selection committee look like on Tuesday evening?
You can’t start a conversation about the rankings without mentioning Ohio State. The Buckeyes, who were in second place last week, lost to rival Michigan for the fourth straight year, this time as a three-touchdown favorite. That will not only shake up the top of the Playoff rankings this week, but the ripples will be felt during conference championship weekend as Penn State now plays Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. So how far will Ohio State fall? Are the Buckeyes in line to host a home game in the first round? Tuesday’s rankings will give us a clearer picture.
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Ohio State wasn’t the only top-10 team upset, either. No. 6 Miami blew a 21-0 road lead at Syracuse and is now in danger of missing the Playoff, having already cost itself a spot in the ACC title game (by sending Clemson to Charlotte). The big question will be whether Miami (10-2) scores better than Alabama (9-3), as the bids are filling up in a big way and that’s likely where the bubble line will be drawn. It’s never certain until the bracket is set, but if the Hurricanes fall behind Alabama, their chances of making the Playoff are slim.
Here’s what my model predicts the rankings will be on Tuesday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN):
Projected CFP Top 25 after week 14
| Rank | Team | File | Previous | SOS | AP poll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
12-0 |
1 |
63 |
1 |
|
|
2 |
11-1 |
3 |
49 |
2 |
|
|
3 |
11-1 |
4 |
53 |
3 |
|
|
4 |
11-1 |
5 |
48 |
4 |
|
|
5 |
10-2 |
2 |
34 |
7 |
|
|
6 |
10-2 |
7 |
11 |
5 |
|
|
7 |
10-2 |
8 |
60 |
6 |
|
|
8 |
11-1 |
9 |
71 |
8 |
|
|
9 |
11-1 |
10 |
72 |
9 |
|
|
10 |
9-3 |
13 |
19 |
11 |
|
|
11 |
10-2 |
6 |
68 |
14 |
|
|
12 |
9-3 |
14 |
51 |
15 |
|
|
13 |
11-1 |
11 |
93 |
10 |
|
|
14 |
9-3 |
15 |
12 |
13 |
|
|
15 |
10-2 |
16 |
42 |
12 |
|
|
16 |
10-2 |
18 |
46 |
16 |
|
|
17 |
10-2 |
19 |
55 |
17 |
|
|
18 |
9-3 |
21 |
26 |
22 |
|
|
19 |
9-3 |
12 |
70 |
18 |
|
|
20 |
9-3 |
25 |
47 |
20 |
|
|
21 |
9-3 |
23 |
54 |
21 |
|
|
22 |
9-3 |
NO |
67 |
23 |
|
|
23 |
10-2 |
22 |
94 |
19 |
|
|
24 |
10-1 |
NO |
126 |
24 |
|
|
25 |
8-4 |
NO |
21 |
25 |
Next five: Duke, Tulane, Texas A&M, Iowa State, LSU
Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame should all rise after the Ohio State loss. Like last week, I wouldn’t be shocked if the committee ranked Notre Dame over Penn State. I wouldn’t agree — and neither would my model — but the committee could use the Irish’s 14-point win over USC as justification. Penn State defeated USC by three in overtime earlier this year.
Does Ohio State fall to No. 5? Or will it be behind Georgia? Some make the argument that the Buckeyes should fall under Tennessee, as they did in the AP poll, but in my opinion that is incorrect. In the eyes of the committee, Ohio State has two better wins against Penn State and Indiana and the tougher schedule. People may not like it, but Ohio State is still in a good position to host a Playoff game despite the loss to Michigan. In fact, I’d be shocked if it wasn’t.
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Perhaps the most uncertainty this week concerns the ACC title game and the final major bid. SMU beating Clemson makes things pretty simple as the Mustangs would get an automatic bid and a first round bye and Clemson would be out. However, if SMU loses, Clemson is in position to get an automatic bid and SMU would then face, you guessed it, Alabama for the last remaining spot, if the Tide is indeed ahead of Miami.
I don’t think SMU should be punished too harshly for a loss in a conference championship game, but given how tough Alabama’s schedule is, especially compared to SMU’s, the Crimson Tide will be in the conversation. Of course, many things will come into play in the discussion. If SMU were to lose by multiple scores, I think this is probably the solution. If it’s a close game, that might keep the Mustangs in. But there’s also the fact that Alabama has the name recognition and comes from the SEC.
Is that a fair process? Not necessarily. Alabama would again benefit from jumping a team after the conference championship game, as it did last year over Florida State. But because the resumes are so close, this will be a debate, and if I had to guess, Alabama would get the benefit of the doubt.
As for the rest of the series, there’s a chance Big 12 champion could move ahead of Clemson if it wins the ACC title, which would push the Tigers down the seeding list. With the AAC likely eliminated, the winner of the Mountain West gets a spot in the Playoff – and Boise State has a good shot at the No. 3 seed if Clemson has the upper hand in the ACC.
(Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb/The Athletic; Photos: Brian Bahr, James Gilbert, Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
