The odds of Donald Trump winning the White House are now -156 after Joe Biden’s decision to retire. According to bookmakers, there is a 61 percent chance that he will become the next president in November.
That’s down slightly from a day ago, when the president’s chances of winning were estimated at 64 percent, suggesting some uncertainty as Democrats consider a new nominee.
In contrast, Biden’s chances essentially plummeted, according to Predict it – as His vice-chairman, Kamala Harrissaw her odds jump dramatically to +163. That’s up from the +900 we saw just a few days ago on July 16, and a huge increase from June, before Biden’s disastrous debate performance, when her odds were even lower at +2400.
That means bookmakers are 12 times more likely to win than they were a month ago, when bookmakers put Biden’s odds at about 50-50.
That statistic has now halved six times as the election approaches. And as it is, other figures have surprising chances, too, from California’s Gavin Newsom to former First Lady Michelle Obama.
The odds of Donald Trump entering the White House are now -178 after Joe Biden’s decision to retire. This means that bookmakers give him a 62 percent chance of becoming the next president.
It was a slight drop from a day ago, when the president’s chances of winning were estimated at 64 percent, and hints at some uncertainty as Democrats consider a replacement for the recently resigned Biden.
While not the most reliable information aggregator, as journalists and political operatives are not allowed to vote, the site and its odds marker are widely regarded as an effective and reliable way to predict elections.
It is also the only presidential odds market that has a federal exemption for research purposes. Such markets are not strictly legal.
But despite repeated attempts by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to undo this, it is an example. And now Trump appears to be comfortably in the lead, despite a minor misstep apparently caused by Biden’s decision to withdraw.
He started the day with a line of -178, which has now dropped to -156.
Harris entered last week as an outsider with odds of 10-1, even though she was seen by many as the obvious replacement as many called for Biden to withdraw.
That prospect came almost one step closer to reality on Sunday, after her old running mate went to X to make the long-awaited announcement.
Within seconds her chances increased by nine percent, having already improved by about 17 percent in the past week.
The second most dramatic change was shown by Biden, whose stock price dropped from +567 to nearly 100-1 in seconds, having fallen 48 percent since his debate last month.
Likely replacement Kamala Harris, Biden’s vice president, saw her odds rise dramatically to +178 – up from the +900 seen a few days ago
This is a developing story. Check back for updates.
