By Sam Blum, Brittany Ghiroli and Stephen J. Nesbitt
Baltimore Orioles to get: Left-handed pitcher Trevor Rogers
Miami Marlins to get: OF Kyle Stowers and IF Connor Norby
Sam Blum: What a great addition to the Miami Marlins. Norby is one of the Orioles’ top prospects and was recently called up to the big leagues.
Rogers is valuable as a left-handed starter under team control through 2026. That said, the 26-year-old hasn’t been very good. Outside of his 2021 All-Star season, he’s been a below-average starter. Plus, many of his projected numbers this year are worse than his already less-than-stellar stats.
His walk rate has increased from 8.4 percent in 2021 to 9.7 percent this year. His average exit velocity has increased from 87.7 mph in 2021 to 90.5, both of which are well above league averages. He also missed most of last season with an arm injury.
That said, left-handed starters are scarce. And the Orioles need starting pitching depth. John Means and Kyle Bradish are both out, Albert Suarez regressed in July, and Cole Irvin has been moved to the bullpen.
This is still a significant overpayment. With the hours ticking and the market shrinking, it appears they have decided to subtract from their prospect wealth to add a position of need. Such is the luxury of drafting and developing so many capable prospects.
Norby hasn’t performed in his first nine games in the big leagues. But he’s projected as a very solid big-league player with a decent amount of pop. Kyle Stowers is now theoretically getting his chance in the majors. The 2019 second-round pick has been fairly productive in 19 games with the big league club this season.
The Orioles should have gotten a better starting pitcher with this haul. Maybe they were out of options. But kudos to the Marlins for capitalizing on this seller’s market and getting back two players who could be important parts of their future.
Marlins: a
Golden Orioles: D
Orioles acquire LHP Trevor Rogers from the Marlins, source tells us @TheAthletic.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 30, 2024
Brittany Ghiroli: I’m a little disappointed with this deal for Baltimore, which on the surface seems like a boon for Miami. The O’s were interested in multiple pitchers from the Marlins, and Rogers, aside from being a guy who can get them innings, is a bit of a reclamation project for an organization that excels at developing hitters but has yet to replicate that success on the big-league pitching side.
Last year, the Orioles banked on Jack Flaherty to pitch better in Baltimore and it was a disaster. Maybe the front office sees something it can do with Rogers, but the price was pretty steep. Stowers is a big-league ready player who was simply the odd one out in a numbers game. Norby was on the big team and the Orioles’ fifth-best prospect, meaning he could have been a top-three prospect for many teams given how deep Baltimore’s farm is. Of course, Stowers had no role with the big club and was cut in the days leading up to the deadline. And it’s a seller’s market, as we’ve seen with other moves. It still feels like the Orioles overpaid here, and Baltimore fans can only hope that more moves are in the pipeline.
Golden Orioles: C+
Marlins: a
GO DEEPER
Eno’s Take on Trevor Rogers Trade: Orioles Win Innings, But Fastball Velocity Is a Concern
Stephen J. Nesbitt: Well, it’s not Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet, but the Orioles have found the left-handed pitcher to balance out their rotation, adding Rogers alongside fellow newcomer Zach Eflin, ace Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer. Rogers’ best days are believed to be yet to come, and more specifically, outside of Miami. He often didn’t pitch well there. Rogers had a 4.69 ERA at home and a 3.84 ERA away. Pitching at Camden Yards, with its expansive left field, should do him a favor against right-handed pull hitters.
Rogers was an All-Star and Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021 but hit a wall the following year, more than doubling his ERA to 5.47. He’s pitched well of late, making this an ideal time for the rebuilding Marlins to capitalize on the inherent value of having a starter under club control through 2026. We’ve been waiting years for Miami to move more of its starting pitchers to bolster the lineup — as they did last spring, trading Pablo López for Luis Arraez — but it wasn’t the trade I saw coming, with the Orioles giving up a pair of potential position players.
Baltimore is giving up a lot for a player who currently would not start for them in the postseason. At the time of this trade, Baseball America ranked Norby, who was the No. 7 prospect in their system, the second best prospect traded to date at this deadline. Stowers, a 2019 second-round pick, has hit well in his limited time in the majors but, like Norby, is blocked in the Orioles’ system. Controllable pitching is expensive. But this is more than I’d be comfortable trading for a starter whose standout rookie season looks like an outlier.
Marlins: a
Golden Orioles: C
(Photo by Rogers: Rich Story/Getty Images)
