Half of England's population will end up in A&E every year by 2034 if the NHS does not 'go fake' and shift more care from hospitals to the community, the country's top doctor has warned.
Professor Sir Stephen Powis, national medical director of NHS England, said that if the NHS wants to 'avoid a situation of emergency room overcrowding' in ten years' time, it will have to 'fake it' in moving care from hospital to the community .
A&Es across the country have reported extreme pressure in recent weeks, with many reporting critical incidents coupled with worrying reports about the care patients have received.
In a keynote speech on 'The Current State of the NHS' at the Liverpool Medical Institution last night, Sir Stephen said: 'My main focus today is on moving care into the community.
'Because we know that if A&E visits increase at the same rate as over the last decade, NHS staff will have to manage six million extra A&E visits every year from 2034.
'That would mean almost half the population visiting the emergency room at least once a year – that is simply not feasible for a 21st century healthcare system.
'Instead, millions of patients will need to get the care and support they need outside of hospital.
'The NHS is already on the right track to make this a reality – whether it's rolling out high-tech virtual wards or two-hour emergency response teams.'
Professor Sir Stephen Powis (pictured), national medical director of NHS England, said that if the NHS 'wants to avoid a situation of emergency department overcrowding' in ten years' time, it must 'fake' moving care from the hospital to the community to move.
Half of England's population will end up in A&E every year by 2034 if the NHS doesn't 'go fake' and shift more care from hospitals to the community
Emergency departments in England had their busiest year on record in 2024, with 27.42 million visitors across the year – 7.1% more than in 2023, according to NHS England.
Rough projections suggest that there could be 33,505,330 visitors in 2034.
Sir Stephen also addressed medical students, doctors and recently retired doctors and will urge them to take part in the 10-year health plan.
“If the NHS is to avoid a situation of emergency department overcrowding in ten years' time, we must ensure that care moves from the hospital to the community,” he added.
'The mechanism how we do this is still under discussion.
'So as doctors of the past, present and future, we need your experience and expertise to support us to go further and faster.
'I urge everyone in this room to put forward your experiences of what works and what doesn't in the NHS – so we can make best practice mainstream across the country as part of the 10-year health plan.' , he said. added.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting has invited patients and NHS staff to take part in a 'national conversation' to shape the plan, a central part of Labour's health policy.
The party has pledged to 'build an NHS fit for the future', with a greater focus on preventing ill health, shifting care from hospitals to the community and harnessing the latest technology to improve care.
Sir Stephen's comments come after a report last week showing patients dying in corridors, sometimes going undiscovered for hours, while sick people are left to fend for themselves.
Emergency departments in England had their busiest year on record in 2024, with 27.42 million visitors across the year – 7.1% more than in 2023, according to NHS England
Described as 'harrowing', the Royal College of Nursing (RCN) report notes patients sitting in chairs for days – so-called 'chair care' – people left in corridors, delays in treatment and elderly people who are unable to go to the toilet. help due to lack of bells and too few staff.
The RCN found that patients are regularly treated in bathrooms, shower rooms, cloakrooms, funeral rooms and even viewing rooms where families visit deceased relatives.
It has also called for immediate action from the government to end 'corridor care', which it says has been normalized and does not only take place in the winter months.
Leading doctors from the Royal College of Physicians (RCP) have raised concerns and said there must be a 'zero tolerance' approach to care in the NHS corridors.
In December, more than 54,000 patients in England waited more than 12 hours to be admitted to a bed, while research shows that patients who spend more than 12 hours in A&E are twice as likely to die within 30 days as patients who spend more than 2 hours. hours are treated.
