US Baseball Roster Projection for 2028 Olympics: How MLB Players Could Make the Team

By means of Eno Sarris, Brittany Ghiroli and Stephen J. Nesbitt

In the top division clubs, there has been increasing talk lately about an event that is still four years in the future: the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles.

On Monday, Texas Rangers reliever David Robertson jokingly announced that he and 37-year-old closer Kirby Yates plan to pitch for Team USA in 2028, drawing laughs from teammates Jacob deGrom and Corey Seager. Robertson, one of the oldest active players in the majors, smiled and said, “I’m only going to be 44, so I think I have a shot.”

Robertson and Team USA won silver at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, when only players not on the 40-man roster were eligible to play. There is momentum among MLB owners and players to make all major leaguers eligible in 2028, when baseball returns to the Olympics. “I’d love to be a part of that,” Philadelphia Phillies star Bryce Harper said earlier this summer. “The Olympics is something you dream of playing in.”

Robertson entered the 2020 Olympics after two lost seasons due to elbow surgery. He knew it would be his last time pitching and figured it wasn’t a bad way to retire. Robertson had two saves in qualifying and two more in the Olympics. He then signed with the Tampa Bay Rays. He pitched in the postseason that fall. The Olympics helped revive his career.

“I would do it again in a heartbeat,” Robertson said. “I had a blast.”

The United States has won just one Olympic gold (in six tries) and the World Baseball Classic just once (in five tries). It will take all of the best Americans on the field to compete for gold in Los Angeles.

So, we’ve put together a roster of 26 players for Team USA for the 2028 Games. These selections are based on rigorous statistical analysis, gut feelings, heated debate, and (more than anything else) Fangraphs writer Dan Szymborski’s five-year ZiPS projections.

All charts include player ages in 2028 and stats from the ZiPS 2028 projections.

Catcher

Rutschman is a West Coast kid, a former No. 1 overall pick and a two-time All-Star. He’s an easy choice for the starting player on this Team USA roster. (He’s also dominated in the red, white, and blue, posting a .355 batting average for the Collegiate National Team in 2018.) The switch-hitting Rutschman should still be in top form in 2028, even if he’s not catching every weekday.

As exciting as it would be to put Padres super prospect Ethan Salas on this roster — he’ll be just 22 in 2028 and would likely be eligible for either the U.S. or Venezuela teams — we went with O’Hoppe as Rutschman’s backup. The Angels’ “captain” doesn’t have the defensive prowess of Patrick Bailey or Cal Raleigh, who were seriously considered for his sheer strength and penchant for late-game heroics, but O’Hoppe is the youngest of that trio and has shown tremendous potential at the plate.

Also considered: Patrick Bailey, Will Smith, Cal Raleigh, Ethan Salas

Infield

Harper has been incredibly vocal about wanting to compete in the Olympics, and while he certainly won’t be at the most productive stage of his career in 2028, he’s a fierce competitor with a knack for getting into big situations. How quickly will he decline as he ages? That seems to be the biggest factor. Turner, who will be the same age, is in the same category. Could he or Mookie Betts age better than we think and be a better option than, say, Holliday, who everyone thinks can be a superstar in four years?

At 24, Bobby Witt Jr. is already in the running for AL MVP. (Patrick Gorski / USA Today)

Witt, Jr. and Henderson are projected as two of the best players in baseball in 2028, and both could win those titles much sooner. Lewis’ health is a concern, and both he and Winn could easily be in contention with a guy like Neto by the time LA rolls around. Westburg and Mayo are both projected to be superstars in 2028, which only reinforces the belief that if they can figure out the pitching, the Baltimore Orioles should be doing well for a long, long time.

Also considered: Zach Neto, Austin Riley, Jordan Westburg, Alec Bohm, Trea Turner, Mookie Betts, Coby Mayo

Outfield

In Jackson Merrill, we have the perfect combination of age and proven production on the court. It’s easy to put him under center at 25 years old in 2028, as he’s already shown a versatile game with power, speed, and the ability to create contact. Kyle Tucker is at his peak with a similarly versatile game and won’t turn 31 for another four years. After those two years, things get a little trickier.

With our James Wood selection, we dream of his loud tools with a small sample of strong results, but Wood, Wyatt Langford, Colton Cowser or Riley Greene could grow over the next four years and push our veterans aside (check out the four-year projections below). At the other extreme is Mookie Betts, a current star who will be 35 when the Olympics resume. He appears to have what it takes to age gracefully — he makes great contact and is now a five-tool beast — but there is only one player over 35 who is guaranteed to be above average in the league this year. Age comes to all.

Also considered: Wyatt Langford, Colton Cowser, Riley Greene, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Steven Kwan

Designated hitter

Is this recency bias for a guy who is now being treated like Barry Bonds? Probably. Like Harper, though, Judge is a star who can draw viewers to the screen and bridge the gap between the older stars and the younger group that will make up the bulk of this roster. Judge will be 36 at the next Olympics, making him the oldest position player on the roster. While it is generally assumed that a player’s baserunning and defense decline the fastest, we have seen sluggers hit for power in their mid-30s and beyond. Judge’s presence in the lineup could still be a threat, provided he is healthy enough to play. If not, it’s easy to see the team opting for one of the infielders/outfielders we cut to give the DH role some versatility. Walker could develop into that guy, and Buxton has already flashed his potential, though his injury history is perhaps the most concerning of this entire group.

Also considered: Christian Yelich, Christian Walker, Triston Casas, Byron Buxton

Starting rotation

Right now, this looks like a nasty rotation, full of fire and ice. You have Paul Skenes sitting at 100, Spencer Strider with perhaps the two most dominant single pitches in either arsenal, a frontrunner for the NL Cy Young this year, perhaps the best control in the league in George Kirby, and then a horse like no other in Logan Webb, who has led the league in innings pitched the last three seasons. This would be a dominant rotation.

George Kirby could be part of an Olympic rotation in 2028, but projecting pitchers that far out is a risky business. (Jonathan Dyer/USA Today)

But don’t write it down with a pen. From the top ten pitchers in the league Four seasons ago, there were only two healthy pitchers in the major leagues. Two! That’s what injuries have done to the game. We now have an injured player in our rotation. One of those 10 healthy pitchers—Luis Castillo—could be an argument for including pitchers like Webb, Kirby, and Logan Gilbert, because they’ve probably shown they can stay healthy.

The reality is that this is going to be the hardest part of the roster to figure out. Teams will want to protect themselves from losing a key arm and may choose to emphasize nagging pain to keep their pitcher out of games. We’ve even seen this with WBC teams in the past. In 2028, the most enthusiastic and healthy pitchers (young or old) will be making a case for their own inclusion and it’s going to be pretty tough to figure out who those players are in four years. It may even be tough to figure out in 2027.

Bullpen

Trying to predict which flamethrowers will still be pitching effectively four years from now is a fool’s errand, but we’ve brought in a balanced bullpen that already looks terrible. While we could have filled an entire pitching staff with bad starters who weren’t in the rotation — Tyler Glasnow, Garrett Crochet, Dylan Cease — we stuck with Burnes, Ragans, and Greene.

Greene, the Reds’ All-Star starter, is a Los Angeles native who won gold for Team USA at both the Under-15 and Under-18 Baseball World Cups. “It would be incredible to do it on an Olympic platform,” he said. There you have it. He’s in! If Greene’s heater can hit 98 mph as a starter, imagine him cooking in a one-inning out of the ‘pen.

For the “true relievers” portion of the roster, we have the hardest-throwing man in baseball — Miller — plus two other current closers, the right-handed Williams and the left-handed Hader, and a likely future closer in Kerkering. Considering how emotional Kerkering’s father, a retired Marine, was when he made his debut for the Phillies last fall, it would be something special to see him pitch for Team USA.

Also considered: Tyler Glasnow, Garrett Crochet, Dylan Cease, Logan Gilbert, Zac Gallen, Ben Joyce, Ryan Helsley, Griffin Jax, Pete Fairbanks, Tanner Scott, Clay Holmes, Jackson Jobe, Noah Schultz

Below are ZiPS’s projected top 10 position players and starters in 2028. Predicting is tough, and planning four years out is even tougher, but these lists do give a good sense of how age and production could change by the time the Olympics roll around again.

Position players:

Jugs:

— The AthleticsC. Trent Rosecrans contributed to this story.

(Top photo of Henderson, Skenes and Witt: Getty; G Fiume, Orlando Ramirez, Nic Antaya)