4 Lessons from Iran’s Presidential Elections
The victory of reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian in Iran’s presidential election is a sign of change from the government of Ebrahim Raisi, a conservative Shiite Muslim cleric and the previous president who died in a helicopter crash in May.
Mr Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old heart surgeon who served as a lawmaker and health minister in previous reformist governments, defeated conservative candidate Saeed Jalili in the runoff on Friday, the government announced on Saturday.
These are the main conclusions of the elections.
A sharp choice led to a higher turnout in the elections
The second round was a political choice that put Iranians who had boycotted the first round of the election on edge. Turnout in the first round was about 40 percent, continuing the downward trend seen in recent parliamentary elections. Faced with candidates who represented radically different visions of Iran’s future, many voters who had not gone to the polls in the first round decided to cast their ballots in the second round.
When voting closed on Friday, turnout had risen nearly 10 percentage points, to 49.8 percent. according to state mediaMr. Pezeshkian’s campaign slogan, “Save Iran,” appears to have resonated with those who wanted change, albeit incremental change in a limited political and social environment.
The Iranian government also conducted a public campaign to encourage voters to vote.
While Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei retains ultimate power in Iran, elections provide a semblance of legitimacy to the country’s authoritarian theocracy.
A return to the reform agenda
Mr Pezeshkian’s victory marks the return of Iran’s relatively moderate reform agenda after years of being sidelined.
He opposed Iran’s mandatory hijab law, promised to disband Iran’s morality police and lift restrictions on the internet, and said he wanted peaceful relations with the West.
But as he tried to convince Iranians to vote for him, Mr Pezeshkian, who served in parliament for 16 years and was health minister for four, had to deal with the disappointment of voters who saw little change under two previous presidents despite being promised some.
Mohammad Khatami, a reformer, and Hassan Rouhani, a moderate centrist, won overwhelming victories in their respective elections, but as leaders they were limited by Mr. Khamenei’s ultimate power.
Will anything change in Iran?
Mr. Pezeshkian has said he wants to bridge the divide between conservative and moderate voters and that he can set the domestic policy agenda and influence the shape of foreign policy.
But the country remains a theocracy, led by an appointed cleric, Mr Khamenei, who makes the final decisions on major matters of state.
But the president could change the tone of the country, analysts said. Mr. Pezeshkian is expected to steer Iran away from hardline policies such as compulsory hijab, which led to widespread discontent, an uprising and a crackdown by the authorities under Mr. Raisi.
He is also expected to negotiate with the United States to resolve the standoff over the nuclear program and try to lift associated sanctions.
Mr. Pezeshkian’s candidacy was backed by a team of seasoned technocrats, and his cabinet is likely to reflect that. He has pledged to work with his rivals to solve some of Iran’s most persistent problems, including an economy weakened by years of harsh international sanctions.
In 2018, former President Donald J. Trump unilaterally withdrew from a nuclear deal between Iran and the West, even though international inspectors said Iran was complying with its terms.
One of his key tasks will be to tackle inflation, which has sent prices of fresh fruit, vegetables and meat soaring.
But to revive the economy, Mr. Pezeshkian will have to work out a deal with the United States to lift sanctions on his oil revenues and banking transactions. Despite U.S. efforts, Iran is not isolated internationally and has forged close ties with Russia, China and India. But sanctions are hampering its economic growth and trade.
Can Iran improve relations with the West?
Mr. Pezeshkian has presented foreign policy as an economic issue and has said he is prepared to negotiate with Western powers, namely the United States, to lift sanctions on Iran. He has also expressed his willingness to resume nuclear negotiations — which are intertwined with the sanctions — and generally reduce tensions.
“Whoever ends his relations with the world will be stopped. Why should we fight with the whole world?” Pezeshkian told Iranian media during the election campaign.
This stands in stark contrast to his rival, Mr Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator who opposed Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with international powers because it made too many concessions. During his presidential campaign, he also rejected any accommodation with the West and instead sought to build stronger ties with Russia and China.
Under Mr. Raisi, the previous president, Iran continued to develop its missile arsenal and its nuclear program, reaching the status of a nuclear threshold state, with a breakout time of a week to build a simple atomic bomb, experts say. The country also became an increasingly powerful but unpredictable player in the Middle East crisis.
Iran funds, arms and trains a network of military groups across the Middle East, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as militant groups in Iraq and Syria. The network, known in the region as the “axis of resistance,” has helped advance Iran’s strategic interests by both expanding its influence and serving as a forward defense.
As for Iran’s hostility toward Israel, that is a matter of state policy determined at the highest levels. The new president is unlikely to deviate from it.
