Mandel’s Final Thoughts: Georgia, Ohio State and Texas at the top. After that, guess again
And now, 18 thoughts on an early September Saturday that dared AP voters to just blow up their ballots and start over.
1. Two weeks in, I feel confident that Georgia, Ohio State and Texas are the correct top three teams. After that, I’d be guessing just the same as you. A lot of highly ranked teams had close calls against inferior opponents. And one top-five team flat-out lost at home to NIU as a 28-point favorite.
2. This was supposed to be the year Marcus Freeman led Notre Dame back to national title contention, not to yet another Week 2 home loss to a Group of 5 opponent. (2022 Marshall, meet 2024 NIU.) He already had a stacked, veteran defense before landing renowned offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock from LSU and transfer quarterback Riley Leonard from Duke. But on Saturday, Leonard went just 20 of 32 for 163 yards and two interceptions against a MAC opponent. NIU took advantage of that second pick to sit on the ball for five minutes before hitting a last-minute field goal to stun the Irish 16-14.
From Day 1, Freeman has been unofficially auditioning for the job he already landed, at age 35, after Brian Kelly bolted. After a rough Year 1, he was trending in the right direction. But Saturday was an absolute confidence crusher that sapped all the momentum from Notre Dame’s season-opening win at Texas A&M. If anything, it brought back questions long ago assumed buried about the state of Freeman’s program. Yes, Notre Dame can still reach the 12-team Playoff, but only if Saturday’s game proves to be a complete fluke.
GO DEEPER
Sampson: Notre Dame has been here before under Marcus Freeman. That’s the problem
3. A team like NIU will never experience a national title but winning at Notre Dame Stadium as a huge underdog surely feels as sweet. The Huskies coach, Thomas Hammock, himself a former NIU star running back, was sobbing during his NBC postgame interview. The program has had its moments over the last two decades, most notably the Jordan Lynch era circa 2012-13, but this was by far its biggest win. I would not have suggested before the season that the MAC could produce the G5’s CFP rep, but I can’t imagine another G5 team will earn a more significant nonconference win.
“THEY BELIEVED.”
Northern Illinois HC Thomas Hammock spoke from the heart after an incredible upset over Notre Dame. @NIU_Football pic.twitter.com/pFrS5ok5U7
— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) September 7, 2024
4. No. 10 Michigan came out Saturday against No. 3 Texas wearing the same uniforms and playing in the same stadium as the 2023 national champions — but that’s where the resemblances ended. The Longhorns’ 31-12 rout at the Big House confirmed the most dire concerns about the Wolverines’ depleted offense. Much more stunning was the ease with which Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers (24 of 36, 246 yards, three TDs, no INTs) shredded a Michigan defense that still boasts star power.
The Horns controlled the line of scrimmage, and Steve Sarkisian was his usual masterful self in scheming guys open, most notably tight end Gunnar Helm (seven catches, 98 yards). It should be a nice confidence boost for Texas as it embarks on its first-ever SEC schedule.
5. New Wolverines head coach Sherrone Moore, who took over when Jim Harbaugh left for the Chargers, succeeded in keeping the defending champs’ roster together, but he didn’t do much to upgrade it either. I was surprised last spring when he did not bring in a transfer quarterback to compete for the starting job. Two games in, I’m bewildered by it. Davis Warren seems like a serviceable backup who’s been thrust into the starting job, which does not speak well for the guy he beat out, Alex Orji. We’ll see if Moore gives Orji more reps next week against Arkansas State.
6. Nebraska’s 28-10 rout of old rival Colorado was exactly the kind of party long-suffering Huskers fans have been thirsting for. Five-star freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola looked the part (23 of 30, 185 yards, 1 TD, no INTs), and Matt Rhule’s second team looked faster on offense and fiercer on defense. For Deion and Shedeur Sanders, on the other hand, it was a depressingly familiar plot. Colorado gave up six sacks and ran for just 16 yards, leaving Shedeur Sanders (23 of 38, 244 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and Travis Hunter (10 catches, 110 yards) to play their own game of catch after the outcome was long decided.
The Buffs defense has improved from 2023, but there remains a considerable gap between their offensive skill talent and their offensive line. Maybe AFLAC can help close it.
GO DEEPER
Stewart Mandel’s 12-team Playoff projections after Week 2
7. The best player in the country so far has been Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty, who followed up a 267-yard, six-touchdown clinic at Georgia Southern by running for another 192 yards and three TDs against No. 7 Oregon. It wasn’t quite enough to top the Ducks, who won 37-34 on a last-second field goal, thanks in large part to an 85-yard Tez Johnson punt-return touchdown and 100-yard Noah Whittington kick-return TD.
Without those, Oregon might have been in trouble, as its normally explosive offense is not clicking. Following key losses on the inside of their offensive line, the Ducks through two games have already allowed seven sacks. That’s two more than they gave up in either the 2022 or 2023 seasons.
8. On the night Alabama dedicated Nick Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium, the Tide’s offense gave a performance that would have frustrated their former coach to no end. Fourth-ranked Alabama scored on just two of its first 11 possessions against pesky USF and led just 21-16 with 6:45 left before exploding for back-to-back-to-back long touchdowns to win with a deceiving final score of 42-16. Kalen DeBoer’s team is not lacking for weapons, such as running back Jam Miller (15 carries, 140 yards) and freshman receiver Ryan Williams (four catches, 68 yards), but on this night, the Tide’s offensive line brought back troubling memories of its rocky 2023 campaign.
9. Saturday night’s Tennessee-NC State game in Charlotte was shaping up to be Vols quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s coming-out party, but his defense upstaged him. The No. 14 Vols shut down Wolfpack quarterback Grayson McCall, the former Coastal Carolina standout, and held No. 24 NC State to just 143 total yards in a 51-10 blowout. We knew Tennessee had an elite pass-rusher in James Pearce, but nose tackle Omari Thomas and the rest of the Vols’ D-line dominated the Wolfpack. Iamaleava (16 of 23, 211 yards) had his moments as well, but he also threw a pick six that became NC State’s only touchdown.
10. Here’s one I did not see coming: South Carolina, a week removed from eking out a 23-19 home win against Old Dominion, going on the road and suffocating Kentucky in a 31-6 beatdown. The Gamecocks D, led by five-star freshman pass rusher Dylan Stewart, notched five sacks and a pick six of Wildcats quarterback Brock Vandagriff while allowing just 188 total yards.
In addition to starting 1-0 in SEC play, Shane Beamer’s team, 5-7 last season, messed things up for ESPN’s GameDay. The show was expected to be in Lexington next weekend for Georgia at Kentucky. Now: LSU at South Carolina.
11. Former star quarterback Brock Purdy led Iowa State’s ascent under Matt Campbell a few years ago. Enter Rocco Becht, a sophomore in his second year as the starter. Down 19-7 against rival Iowa’s notoriously salty defense, Becht hit Jaylin Noel for a 75-yard touchdown, then in the final minute, connected with Noel again for a 30-yard gain to set up Kyle Konrady’s game-winning 54-yard field goal. With the 20-19 victory, Campbell has beaten Kirk Ferentz two of the past three years after losing his first five Cy-Hawk games.
#IowaState reels #Iowa back in after Rocco Becht hits Jaylin Noel for a 75-yard TD pass. The battle for the #CYHawk trophy is close. pic.twitter.com/OrgAiUwoOm
— College Football Buzz (@CFBBUZ) September 7, 2024
12. The Big 12 dodged a pair of upsets in the early window Saturday when No. 16 Oklahoma State, down 21-7 at one point, held off Arkansas 39-31 in double overtime, and No. 17 Kansas State, down 20-10 at halftime, survived 34-27 at Tulane.
The losers of those games will be kicking themselves for some time, though. Offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino’s Razorbacks racked up 648 yards but lost three turnovers and got stopped twice on fourth down. Meanwhile, Tulane redshirt freshman quarterback Darian Mensah put on a show, with four 30-plus-yard completions, and it appeared he’d thrown a tying TD with 17 seconds left. But officials negated it on a non-existent offensive pass interference call. Mensah then threw a dagger interception.
This was an offensive pass interference on Tulane.
The Wave got robbed pic.twitter.com/ApTZ5Wb1ws
— Boot Krewe Media (@BootKreweMedia) September 7, 2024
Perhaps one or both quality wins will end up boosting the Big 12’s at-large chances.
13. Clemson heard all our mockery after last week’s Georgia game and took it out on respected G5 team Appalachian State. Behind a near-perfect performance from quarterback Cade Klubnik (24 of 26, 378 yards, five TDs, no INTs), the Tigers scored 35 points in the first quarter and 56 before halftime in a 66-20 blowout. It served as a friendly reminder that despite losing its opener 34-3, Clemson could well turn around and win the ACC. And also that Georgia remains a holy terror.
14. The offensive wizardry Hugh Freeze showed at Ole Miss and Liberty has yet to make an appearance at Auburn. In the second game of Freeze’s second season, visiting Cal smothered the Tigers passing game, picking off Payton Thorne four times and holding Auburn to 286 total yards in a 21-14 win. Auburn fans will surely call for the head of Thorne, who has never been able to replicate his great 2021 season at Michigan State, but it’s hard to say how much of the problem is him and how much is the Tigers woeful offensive line.
15. A year ago on this same weekend, Illinois went to Kansas and fell behind 34-7, losing 34-23. So it was a big deal for Bret Bielema’s team to not only win Saturday’s rematch, 23-17, but also to stifle the 19th-ranked Jayhawks veteran offense. Kansas’ star quarterback Jalon Daniels finished just 18 of 32 for 141 yards and threw three picks against the Illini’s defense. Perhaps this means Illinois is poised for another season like 2022 when it won eight games and gave Michigan fits. Or perhaps KU is not yet ready for preseason Top 25s.
16. Last week, Syracuse coach Fran Brown joked that he should send a bottle of champagne to Ohio State’s Ryan Day for letting quarterback Kyle McCord become a free agent. McCord looked even better in his ACC debut, going 32 of 46 for 381 yards, four touchdowns and no picks in a 31-28 home win over Georgia Tech. Brown, formerly Georgia’s defensive backs coach, was fairly unknown before getting the job last winter but earned instant credibility from the fan base when Syracuse became the surprise landing spot for the Buckeyes’ 2023 starter. It looks like the pair will be a factor in their new conference this fall.
17. The realignment gods tried to kick Washington State and Oregon State to the curb, but they’re not exiting quietly. The Cougars throttled Big 12 foe Texas Tech 37-16 in an AfterDark game on Fox, with quarterback John Mateer responsible for 197 of his team’s 301 yards on the ground. Next week brings a mid-September Apple Cup against Washington in Seattle. Meanwhile, the Beavers won 21-0 at San Diego State in advance of a huge grudge match at home next week against the hated Ducks. That one is also on Fox.
The two programs’ futures remain uncertain. For now, they’ve opted against continuing their Mountain West scheduling partnership next season, presumably to schedule more P4 opponents. For one week at least, it will feel like old times on those campuses.
18. Finally, when UAB savior coach Bill Clark had to step down for health reasons before the 2022 season, offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent stepped in as interim head coach and went 7-6. That wasn’t good enough for UAB, which made a big-splash hire with Trent Dilfer, despite his never having coached college football.
Vincent is now the head coach at Louisiana-Monroe, which on Saturday whooped Dilfer’s Blazers 32-6. Dilfer, the former NFL quarterback and ESPN analyst, has three FBS wins in his first 14 games at UAB.
As always, the splashiest hire is rarely the best hire.
(Photo of Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers celebrating after a touchdown: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
