How unprecedented is Sam Darnold’s resurgence in QB Tiers history? Sando’s Pick Six

If you had the Minnesota Vikings starting 2-0 with Sam Darnold ranking among the NFL’s statistical leaders, set down your Gjallahorn and listen up. You’ll want to know the odds of this fast start turning into a career revival for a quarterback written off by two franchises. Those odds aren’t as terrible as one might think.

The Pick Six column leads this week by resetting expectations for Darnold based on two factors: what we’ve seen from him this season, and what 11 years of Quarterback Tiers data reveals about veteran lower-tier quarterbacks trying to salvage their careers. We’ll also revisit what my former Football GM Podcast co-host Randy Mueller projected for Darnold back in March, which is looking prescient at this early stage.

The full menu this week:

• What are the odds for Sam Darnold?
• Raiders win: Tale of two Harbaughs
• Chiefs vs. Bengals vs. Ravens
• Are these the Saints or ’07 Pats?
• Serious concerns in the AFC South
• Two-minute drill: Callahan’s ire

1. Beating the New York Giants in Week 1 was one thing. Upsetting the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers on Sunday was another. Time to believe in Darnold?

First off, Darnold playing well for the Vikings isn’t a shock to everyone. Before Mueller left The Athletic and joined the New Orleans Saints’ front office last month, the former NFL Executive of the Year made a film-based case for Darnold reviving his career in Minnesota.

You can listen to his thoughts, expressed in March, in the audio above. Mueller lauded the Vikings for doing what so many teams fear: moving on from an expensive veteran quarterback (Kirk Cousins) without knowing what the future holds.

That plan included signing Darnold for one year and $10 million, before it was known Minnesota could maneuver in the draft for the since-injured J.J. McCarthy. Mueller loved the plan partly because he thought Darnold’s 2023 tape with San Francisco showed progress.

“For the first time in this kid’s career, he had answers in his backpack to make decisions that helped him make progressions, reads, and he had an offensive line that actually protected him,” Mueller said then. “I think Sam Darnold was in horrible situations before he got to San Francisco, but he played really good in San Francisco in some film that, for me, was easy to decipher his strengths and weaknesses.”

It’s early to draw conclusions. Darnold started 2-0 with Carolina in 2021 during his last starting opportunity. Then as now, his team’s defense was a driver of team success – better than average by more than two touchdowns per game. The Vikings’ defense, led by second-year coordinator Brian Flores, is off to its best two-game start since at least 2000 by total EPA (expected points added) and EPA per play.

Darnold is keeping interesting company among veteran quarterbacks voted into Tier 4 in the 11 years of QB Tiers.

Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield and Tua Tagovailoa are the encouraging comps. All three climbed into higher tiers after struggling early in their careers and landing in Tier 4, which includes veteran quarterbacks who ideally would not start a full season. So many others faded away. Smith and Mayfield are cleaner comps than Tagovailoa because they changed teams.

Darnold is among 61 quarterbacks voted into Tier 4 since 2014.

Twenty-three of the other 60 are relevant comps for Darnold. That is the number after removing young prospects (20 or fewer career starts, such as Bryce Young this year) and journeymen with more than than 70 (Mark Sanchez, latter-career Joe Flacco etc.).

The three success stories — Smith, Mayfield and Tagovailoa — steadied their careers once paired with supportive head coaches/offensive coordinators and formidable No. 1 receivers. Darnold checks those boxes in Minnesota with coach Kevin O’Connell and wideout Justin Jefferson, who scored on a 97-yard reception from Darnold against the 49ers on Sunday.

We’re really about to put an active player in Canton.@JJettas2

📺: @NFLonCBs pic.twitter.com/cephalTst9

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) September 15, 2024

Darnold ranks third in yards per attempt (9.5) through two games and sixth in passer rating (111.8). He’s 14th in EPA per pass play.

The Houston Texans, Green Bay Packers and New York Jets are next on the schedule for the Vikings. Minnesota will have better feeling by its Week 6 bye as to whether Darnold’s solid start is sustainable.

2. The Harbaugh brothers brought a combined 550-11 advantage over their coaching counterparts into Week 2. Antonio Pierce did not care.

The Pierce-coached Raiders overcame more than reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and the defending AFC North-champion Baltimore Ravens during their 26-23 upset victory in Week 2.

Las Vegas also overcame an incredible experience gap.

Career games as a head coach before Sunday: Harbaugh 282, Pierce 10.

“It’s a staggering difference,” an exec from another team said. “Harbaugh is grinding through another year with all the same processes in place. Pierce is probably still learning the names of his coaches’ wives.”

Pierce’s 6-5 record as head coach includes victories against Andy Reid, Sean Payton and, now, John Harbaugh.

Entering Week 2, I had circled the experience gaps in the two Harbaugh games Sunday.

In Carolina, the Los Angeles Chargers’ Jim Harbaugh went into Week 2 with a 268-1 lead over Panthers counterpart Dave Canales in total NFL/NCAA games as a head coach. His team rolled to a 26-3 victory.

Most surprising Sunday: Harbaugh’s Ravens, long a powerhouse on special teams, shanking a punt in the late going, setting up the winning drive for the Raiders.

3. Another week, another close call for the Kansas City Chiefs. Here’s where my mind went after their victories against Baltimore and Cincinnati.

The Chiefs are 2-0 by the narrowest of margins after outlasting Baltimore in Week 1 and converting a fourth-and-16 in the final minute to beat Cincinnati on Sunday.

These were coin-flip games in the end. The Chiefs scored on defense against the Bengals and needed a pass-interference call to convert that fourth-and-16 on a day when Patrick Mahomes tossed two interceptions and Travis Kelce caught a single pass for five yards.

We shouldn’t make blanket statements based off two outcomes that easily could have gone the other way for Kansas City, which won 26-25. But as the Chiefs outlasted another AFC challenger, I recalled a note from colleague Dianna Russini’s column Saturday pointing out how Mahomes and Kelce did not miss a practice all summer.

I thought of the Bengals practicing without key players during their training camp, including Ja’Marr Chase, who was pushing for a new contract. I thought about the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson skipping four of Baltimore’s first five voluntary OTAs, forfeiting $750,000 in incentives.

Are these little things indicators of anything relevant when the Chiefs’ most established stars are their most consistently reliable ones?

“These guys are completely committed and they still have time for State Farm commercials and podcasts,” a rival coach said of the Chiefs’ leaders.

These are the sorts of things that come to mind when the margins are so small and Kansas City prevails without playing its best. On a more granular level, the Chiefs will eventually need to resolve their issues at left tackle, although probably not against the Atlanta Falcons next week.

4. The Saints scored on their first 15 possessions of the season with Derek Carr at quarterback. We did not see this coming.

Carr has started 162 total NFL games. His first two starts with Klint Kubiak as his offensive coordinator have produced the second- and 19th-best team performances of his career for offensive EPA per play.

The second-best production came Sunday during a 44-19 road victory against the Dallas Cowboys. Carr completed his first five passes for 192 yards.

The Saints’ Carr-led drive log looks like it was stolen from the 2007 Patriots.

“These guys are producing like the ’07 Patriots and the ’99 Rams, but those teams threw the f— out of the ball,” a defensive coach said of the Saints. “These guys are running it. It’s only two games, but damn.”

The Saints rank 28th on the Cook Index, passing only 41 percent of the time on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games, before score differential and time remaining tend to influence play calling. Kubiak’s former boss, Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers, ranks 29th at 41.2 percent. That suggests Kubiak is approaching games the way Shanahan would approach them, at least early on.

The Saints handed Cowboys defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer the 10th-worst defensive EPA game of his 365-game career as a coordinator or head coach, per TruMedia.

What’s different about these Saints?

Their first real scheme change on offense since Sean Payton took over in 2006 might be providing a jump-start. Kubiak’s scheme is credible, especially in the run game (Alvin Kamara has 198 yards and four touchdowns). From a personnel standpoint, rookie first-round left tackle Taliese Fuaga has upgraded the line.

The Saints’ defense has played a big role in the 2-0 start, helping New Orleans begin six drives in opponent territory. Only Buffalo has started more drives on fields so short (seven).

That helps explain how New Orleans is plus-62 in point differential against Carolina and Dallas. Since 2000, only the 2019 Patriots (plus-73) had a greater differential through two weeks.

Regression is coming. The Saints’ current pace on offense, if sustained for a season, would eclipse the 2004 Colts for the top spot in offensive EPA per play since 2000. That isn’t happening, but for the first time since the Saints signed Carr, there’s actual reason for optimism on offense.

5. ‘We suck right now’ is putting it mildly in the AFC South

The Houston Texans are 2-0.

The rest of the AFC South is 0-6 and difficult to watch.

“We suck right now,” was how Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence summed up his team’s offense.

The Jags are not alone.

These are long seasons, and for as embarrassing as it must have been for the Colts to fall 16-10 at Green Bay to the Malik Willis-quarterbacked Packers, Indy has lost two games by a total of eight points. It shouldn’t be reason to panic. It’s just tough when your passing game lacks the precision to sustain drives and your run defense allows 200 yards each week, and your best defensive lineman, DeForest Buckner, keeps getting hurt.

“We got to hit our base plays because we can’t always just rely on the big shots,” Colts receiver Michael Pittman said.

That’s going to be tough with quarterback Anthony Richardson averaging 13.7 air yards per attempt, by far the highest average in the league. Lawrence ranks second at 11.2, an indication these offenses are lacking the rhythm created when quarterbacks connect on routine shorter passes consistently. Nothing looks easy for these passing games.

We knew Tennessee’s Will Levis would struggle, and we knew Richardson would lack consistency as a passer. But if this is what the Jaguars are going to look like three years into the Doug Pederson/Lawrence marriage, so much for that $55 million-a-year extension Lawrence recently signed, right? Road games against Buffalo and Houston over the next two weeks will turn up the pressure.

6. Two-minute drill: No punches pulled

Titans coach Brian Callahan’s harsh words for Levis stood out Sunday after the second-year quarterback’s latest costly turnover.

“It was dumb,” the Titans’ new coach said of Levis’ ill-fated lateral attempt. “It was the same exact thing he did last week, and he cost us points in the red zone, and that is what it is. He’s a grownup and he knows better and so I was really irritated that he cost us three points in a game that we probably needed it.”

Levis tried to lateral the ball instead of taking a sack when the Titans were in field-goal range during their 24-17 loss to the Jets.

The sack-fumble Callahan referenced cost the Titans 4.6 EPA, which reflects the points lost on the would-be field-goal try, plus the Jets’ expectation for scoring on the ensuing drive. Against Chicago last week, two Levis turnovers cost Tennessee a combined 12.5 EPA in a game the Titans lost by seven.

Callahan’s harsh words might not have stood out as much years ago, but coaches today generally aren’t so pointed toward their players in public. It’ll be interesting to see how Callahan’s style develops. …

It’s tough finding true surprise teams in the NFL, but my case for Arizona centered around Kyler Murray’s return to fuller health with greater knowledge of coordinator Drew Petzing’s offense. Beating the Rams 41-10 was shocking nonetheless.

Murray’s stock tanked in early 2022 when reports revealed the Cardinals had placed a “homework clause” in his new contract. The torn ACL he suffered in 2023 prevented him from doing anything on the field to change perceptions. Yes, Murray’s size is limiting, but when healthy, he’s a talented dual threat-player for any team that can tailor its system to his strengths.

We saw that Sunday when Murray passed for 266 yards and three touchdowns, and carried five times for 59 yards. He held the ball for longer than eight seconds before finding tight end Elijah Higgins for an 18-yard touchdown — not how anyone would draw it up, but a reflection of what Murray can do outside of structure.

Another note on the Cardinals: They rank among the NFL’s top five in snaps played by rookie draft choices. That included 43 offensive snaps from first-rounder Marvin Harrison, whose four receptions for 130 yards all came in the first quarter. …

The 90 percent make rate (35 of 39) for field goals of 50 yards or longer is about 20 percentage points higher than the season-long totals have been recently. The make rate through two weeks was 91 percent in 2008, but teams attempted only 11 in the first two weeks that season. That’s the difference now. Rate and volume are both higher than in the past. …

The Chiefs (nine seasons) and Bills (five) own the longest active consecutive streaks of reaching the playoffs. Guess who is third? Not San Francisco. Not Dallas. Not Philadelphia or Baltimore. It’s the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who emerged from Detroit with a 20-16 victory against the Lions and a 2-0 start to the season. That’s a quality victory for a team that can improve to 3-0 when Denver visits next week.

(Top photo: Adam Bettcher / Getty Images)