College Football Playoff Stock Price: Why Penn State Is Rising and Michigan Is Falling

September 24, 2024

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College Football Playoff Stock Price: Why Penn State Is Rising and Michigan Is Falling

We’re about a quarter of the way through the college football season, and there’s no shortage of drama. Three of the 12 teams that my preseason model predicted would make the College Football Playoff are no longer in the field, and three teams that were on the bubble have also been eliminated. All in the space of just four weeks.

When I wrote a stock report after Week 2, the teams trending up were Miami, Tennessee, and USC. As it stands, Miami is the projected No. 3 seed as the team to beat in the ACC (72 percent chance of making the playoffs, 40 percent chance of winning the ACC). Tennessee is coming off a road win at Oklahoma and is seeded as the 10th seed with a 73 percent chance of making the field. And despite a road loss to Michigan, USC is holding on to a spot in the projected bracket as the 11th seed with a 45 percent chance. Miami and Tennessee have both increased their projected seeds since two weeks ago (each up one spot), while USC has dropped one spot.

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On the other hand, the three teams I wrote about that were trending downward were Oregon, Notre Dame, and Michigan. Oregon is still in the projected playoff field as the No. 6 seed, and its playoff odds have risen to 87 percent, even if its overall team rating hasn’t risen in my rankings. Notre Dame has moved up since coming on the bubble two weeks ago after a crushing home loss to Northern Illinois, but the Irish’s playoff odds have only risen 5 percentage points to 37 percent.

And Michigan? Yes, the Wolverines just got a season-saving win against USC, but I’m not convinced about the Wolverines yet, and neither is my model.

Replenish stock

Penn State

The Nittany Lions’ playoff odds have increased 8 percentage points over the past two weeks to 80 percent, sixth-highest in the country. More importantly, their overall strength has increased 2.5 points (compared to the average FBS team). The defense has taken a few hits, but should still be a top 20 unit. The biggest improvement is the offense. Penn State ranks seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense, 13th in offensive conversion rate and third in explosive play percentage, according to TruMedia. Sure, the game against Kent State could boost those numbers a bit, but Penn State wiped the floor with the visiting West Virginia defense and defeated a solid Bowling Green team that gave Texas A&M just about everything it could handle in College Station.

The other thing that works out well for Penn State is the schedule. Penn State is projected to be a favorite in all but one game the rest of the year — and even in that one home game against Ohio State, my model gives the Nittany Lions a 48 percent chance of winning. A road game at USC will also be a tough ask, but other than that, the road games to Wisconsin and Minnesota don’t seem as daunting as they did at the start of the season.

According to my model, Penn State wins more than 10 games in 72 percent of simulations, which should earn them a spot in the playoffs.

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Drew Allar ranks second in the FBS in pass efficiency rating. (Matthew O’Haren / Imagn Images)

Boise State

Boise State came within a few bounces of beating Oregon in Eugene, but despite the early blemish, the Broncos’ playoff chances have jumped 13 percentage points, to 36 percent from two weeks ago. I will say that the Group of 5 projection may be a little strange, since I’m not sure how the committee will rate each conference. But the Broncos do have one thing in their favor: Memphis (Navy) and Texas State (Arizona State) have lost in the last two weeks, and neither loss will be as good as an away loss to Oregon. A win against Washington State this week, in a game where it’s favored by about a touchdown, would be a huge boost to Boise State’s resume.

Boise State has arguably the best running back in college football in Ashton Jeanty, who could be the first running back selected in next year’s NFL Draft. He ranks first nationally in EPA per rush and third in percentage of rushes that cover 20-plus yards. Even if the defense stacks the box, Jeanty can burn you. If the Heisman Trophy were given to a non-Power 4 player, Jeanty would be the favorite. And he’s the biggest reason Boise State has the best playoff chances in the Group of 5.

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Stock down

Michigan

Yes, Michigan just beat USC, but it only passed for 32 yards and won on big runs and a pick six. That’s going to be a tough recipe to maintain against quality opponents. Sure, the Alex Orji move at quarterback is the best thing for the team, but ultimately the Wolverines just look like a more athletic/talented version of the Iowa teams of years past. Can they win eight or nine games? Yes. But a playoff run? Unlikely.

Michigan still has Oregon at home and a trip to Ohio State. Don’t miss road trips to Washington, Illinois and Indiana, either. My model gave Michigan just a 2 percent chance of making the Playoff last week, and that number jumped to just 5 percent after USC’s win. That small increase paints a picture of the long-term concerns.

It’s possible that Orji could make the Wolverines’ run game more explosive than it has been the first three weeks. Kalel Mullings figures to be their best running back, and they leaned on him late in the game against USC. And running the ball efficiently while handling the ball well with great defense has been successful in recent years in the Big Ten. I’m just not sure it’s a recipe for being a playoff team. With a loss already under their belt and a tough slate to come, I could see Michigan reaching double figures.

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LSU

I expected some regression on offense after LSU lost a Heisman Trophy quarterback in Jayden Daniels, along with two first-round wide receivers, but I also expected some improvement on defense. So far, LSU just hasn’t been good enough on defense. It ranks 83rd in EPA per play, 74th in defensive success percentage and 82nd in yards per play on first down. It’s also played a tough schedule with USC and South Carolina, and the upcoming SEC slate isn’t easy with Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. The front seven was thin to start the year, and just lost star linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. to a season-ending injury.

My projections two weeks ago had LSU at 24 percent to make the playoffs, and that number has dropped to just 12 percent heading into Week 5. Narrowly escaping South Carolina and being tied with a bad UCLA team at home at halftime isn’t going to give my model confidence in LSU. Could the offense carry the Tigers for a few games? Sure. I’m actually optimistic about the offense for the rest of the season behind Garrett Nussmeier. Unfortunately, LSU hasn’t made the necessary moves on defense to become a playoff contender.