Patrick Mahomes’ turnover problems, Derrick Henry’s dominance, more from Week 4: Quick Outs

Week 4 is in the books – and it still feels weird to say this isn’t technically the quarter-point of the season anymore. Whatever. September football is now over, so mentally we are moving into a new part of the NFL season.

On this episode of Quick Outs, we have a pair of AFC star quarterbacks who don’t quite play like themselves, a worthy opponent for Brian Flores, and a little appreciation for one of the rarest runners the sport has ever seen.

Time to dive in.

GO DEEPER

NFL Power Rankings Week 5: Belief in the Vikings and rookie check-in

Let’s talk about it: Patrick Mahomes’ turnover problems

There’s too much Texas Tech in Patrick Mahomes’ game right now.

Mahomes has five picks to start the season: at least one in every game, two in a close loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. That total – currently the third-highest in the NFL – is the most Mahomes has ever pitched through the first four games of a season.

We’ve done this song and dance before with Mahomes. I know that. He (and the Chiefs in general) also couldn’t stop turning the ball over early in the 2021 season. However, a majority of the interceptions that season felt fluctuating. Drops, tipped passes, miscommunication: everything that could go wrong outside of the quarterback’s control went wrong.

That’s not really the case right now. The funky interception Mahomes threw to Roquan Smith in the opener may seem like a fluke, but I’m willing to put the others on the Kansas City QB.

.@Bengal take down Mahomes on the first play of the drive!

📺: #CINvsKC on CBS/Paramount
📱: pic.twitter.com/q9G42w9vi0

—NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024

Against the Bengals, Mahomes threw his first interception by trying to squeeze a deep sit route past a zone defender in Cover 2. The zone linebacker had no one to cover on his side of the field and melted back to the middle to pick off Mahomes.

Later in the game, Mahomes threw a 50-50 ball to 165-pound Xavier Worthy against CB Cam Taylor-Britt. Taylor-Britt undoubtedly made a crazy one-handed catch, but there’s simply no world in which throwing a contested go-ball to Worthy against a much bigger cornerback makes any sense.

GO DEEPER

Chiefs survive everyone’s best shot, but the margin for error is shrinking with a Rice injury

Mahomes’ interception in the end zone against the Atlanta Falcons was a classic case of not seeing a safety fly across the field to find the ball. Against the Los Angeles Chargers last weekend, Mahomes simply overthrew his man on a closely contested corner course. (I don’t hit him that hard for that because it’s a throw I know he can make, but you have to hit it eventually.)

By the end of the season, Mahomes will likely be doing well. He’s the best quarterback in the league and a back-to-back defending Super Bowl champion, so there’s no reason to doubt this is just a blip on the radar.

However, turnovers are a legitimate issue at this point, and they have played a significant role in all of the Chiefs’ games this close.

Statistical check: Trevor Lawrence’s divergent course

One month into the season, Trevor Lawrence’s deflection rate is the third-worst in the NFL at 16.4 percent, according to PFF. Only Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson were worse. The first was on the bench for Andy Dalton; the latter is seen as the league’s biggest spreader, even by its most optimistic supporters.

Lawrence is an eminently frustrating player. For the better part of the past three years, the film has portrayed Lawrence in a positive light, despite the adversity surrounding him. A few failures here and there would highlight his biggest opponents, but Lawrence was overall a top performer at the position. The team-wide results just weren’t there.

That’s just not the case right now. Lawrence is less precise than ever, plain and simple. Those two or three failures per game turned into five or six. He’s not much different or worse when it comes to decision-making, creation, or aggressiveness – the throws just don’t connect.

GO DEEPER

NFL QB Stock Report, Week 5: Is Justin Herbert Underutilized? Jayden Daniels rises in rank

Lawrence always had some weird misses, like I said, but it’s never been this bad. In other seasons, it typically hovers around an 11 percent deviation, with a previous high of 12.4 percent. Those are mediocre numbers, but not debilitating by any means.

If you’re a Jaguars fan, the angle is that Lawrence’s average target depth is much higher this year, so he should naturally miss more throws. That’s true. Lawrence’s average target depth of 10.3 meters is almost two meters above his previous career high. But even keeping the difficulty in mind, Lawrence misses far more than he should. Lawrence currently has a completion percentage of -8.5 above expected, according to Next Gen Stats; his previous career low was -5.3 percent during that cursed rookie season under Urban Meyer.

I’m a little concerned that Lawrence needs a little career rehabilitation. He’s not the same player we saw peak at the end of 2022 or battle through exasperating circumstances in 2023. He’s not broken beyond repair, either, but there’s a level of uncertainty and shakiness in the way he’s playing now that wasn’t there in years past. .

Hopefully things normalize as the season progresses. Still, it’s hard to imagine the atmosphere around the NFL’s only winless team getting much better.

Can we just understand how ridiculous Derrick Henry is?

He’s a 6-foot-4, 247-pound home run hitter — an optical illusion at running back. Any other runner with anything close to that build is a powerhouse, but Henry has always done his best work at the edge and with a runway.

Plus, it’s a wonder Henry is still a player at age 30 with more than 2,000 NFL titles to his name, regardless of the beating he took at Alabama. The dreaded retreating ‘cliff’ should have come for Henry, but he continues to outrun Father Time and run through enemy defenses. He looks as good as ever in the purple and black of Baltimore.

GET OUT KING

Watch on NBC! pic.twitter.com/fJ5A4eP6on

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 30, 2024

Henry gives the Ravens the meat between the tackles they needed in Gus Edwards’ absence, but what he offers them in space is the real catalyst for success. Henry currently ranks second in explosive rushes (12-plus yards) this season with nine, per TruMedia. The only player ahead of Henry is Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (10 explosive runs).

Part of that explosive ability is related to what Lamar Jackson offers a rushing attack in terms of space. The same goes for Taylor playing next to Richardson, but Henry really has a unique talent in the open field for a big man. In 2024 alone, Henry has six runs hitting at least 18 MPH, according to Next Gen Stats. All the players ahead of him on that list are quarterbacks (like Jayden Daniels, Kyler Murray, and of course Jackson). It doesn’t mean that a man as big as Henry can go with those guys.

Henry has been doing this for a long time too. Since entering the league in 2016, Henry has hit at least 18 MPH on 85 runs. No other player who weighs at least 240 pounds has more than 35 pounds over that span – and it’s quarterback Cam Newton with that number. The only other running back with double-digit 18-plus MPH runs over that span is Najee Harris (12).

There’s just no other guy like Henry. He has the size and violence to ruin anyone’s day with the meanest stiff arm you’ve ever seen before you hit the accelerator and break away from every other defender on the field. Henry is definitely one of them, and we have to appreciate how crazy cool it is that he’s playing next to Jackson in Baltimore’s backfield.

GO DEEPER

2024 NFL Playoff Projections: Can the Commanders Team Be Beat in the NFC East?

Scramble Drill: Jordan Love vs. Brian Flores

Jordan Love threw three picks in a loss, but I swear he had the right idea attacking Brian Flores’ defense.

In theory, Love is the perfect quarterback to deal with Flores’ blitz-laden defense. He is both tough and creative in the wallet. Plus, he throws with unwavering confidence – the kind of confidence that burns you as much as it does you good. That’s the kind of mentality you need to beat a Flores defense that sends bodies and forces you to make throws down the field and into traffic.

The problem for the Packers is that the volatility that comes with the defensive style got to them in the first half.

.@k_grugierhill gets its hands on the INT!

📺: @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/iJVu45ANrt

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) September 29, 2024

Love’s first interception came when he approached Christian Watson. The Vikings put the backers in the right A and B gaps, but both jumped out and dropped them in coverage. Love tried to beat them with the throw coming in from the left side, but linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill made an unreal call in traffic.

Later in the half, Love threw another interception on another pressure. Flores put five defenders on the line and provoked Green Bay into a manly protection scheme. The defensive linemen above the left guard stabbed inside, while the edge defender took the ball wide and opened a huge lane for a flashy off-ball linebacker to pop Love as he attempted to throw a high-low concept. The ball tipped off his tight end’s hands straight to a Viking defender.

But from that moment on, Love did what he had to do. He kept throwing from tight pockets and driving the ball into contested windows, kept bouncing in and around the pocket to buy time when needed, and most of all, he didn’t stop ripping the ball into any holes in the field that were open left by Flores’ blitzes. He didn’t back down or get out of hand like most guys do against Flores.

GO DEEPER

Jordan Love is struggling but shows franchise QB courage in his comeback

Love finished the day 7 of 17 for 188 yards, one touchdown and one pick on throws of at least 15 yards. The completions, attempts and yards were more than any other quarterback on the week. It wasn’t perfect by any means, but Love did the right thing by continuing to fight fire with fire, eventually bringing the Packers close enough to put the game away.

Teams and quarterbacks around the league need to consider the damage Love did by playing like a psychopath in the second half. If Flores wants to call it an unhinged style of defense, the quarterback will have to play equally unhinged to beat him.