National League Division Series predictions: our experts make their picks

The Wild Card round has ended and the stage is set for the National League Division Series, which features not one but two legendary rivalries: Mets-Phillies and Dodgers-Padres. If the regular season games are any indication, the battle between Phillies and Mets could be a slugfest. The two teams nearly split the regular season head-to-head, although the Phillies hold a narrow lead, 7-6. The Padres may have finished five games behind the Dodgers in the NL West standings, but they have the regular season advantage at No. 1, 8-5.

As everyone knows, the late season is a different animal. Anything can happen. Here our experts have done their best to predict an outcome.

Note: Playoff seed in brackets.

New York Mets (6) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (2)

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Stephen J. Nesbitt (Philadelphia): The argument for the Mets is based entirely on vibes, which actually makes it incredibly difficult not to pick them. I want to write about Mets magic. Bad. I have seen miracles. But the Phillies are stinking good. They didn’t play great ball in the second half, but they remain the most complete team in the tournament. This core has been here before. They are used to the spotlight on these cold October evenings. And they have some absolute dogs on the pitching staff, from Zack Wheeler to Orion Kerkering, Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez in the Philly pen.

Andy McCullough (Philadelphia): It’s tough to compete against the Mets, but someone has to do it.

Andrew Baggarly (New York): I picked the Phillies to win the World Series. So if I want to be consistent and intellectually honest, then obviously I have to pick them to win this round. I can’t get that catchy “OMG” song out of my head either.

Zack Meisel (Philadelphia): It’s the Phillies’ moment. They’ll leave the Mets grimacing. (Get it? Sorry.)

Sahadev Sharma (Philadelphia): With magical endings, Phils are deeper in every area.

Jen McCaffrey (Philadelphia): It’s hard to bet against the Mets right now, but the Phillies are too deep on all fronts. This series feels like it’s destined for a Game 5.

Patrick Mooney (Philadelphia): This feels like a bonus round for the Mets.

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Sam Blum (New York): Two years ago it was the Phillies. Last year it was the Diamondbacks. This postseason format seems to encourage a Cinderella run. The Mets look like that team this year.

Eno Sarris (Philadelphia): The Phillies should be better at every stage of the game, but damn, those Mets vibes are strong.

Katie Woo (New York): Nearly every available statistic leads me to pick Philadelphia. Their rotation is better than New York’s, as is their bullpen. Citizens Bank Park is one of the most intimidating sports venues. And yet the Mets continue to win in ways that defy logic and reason. Why stop now?

Keith Law (Philadelphia): No disrespect to Grimace, but the Phillies are the stronger team in just about every aspect, and they bring much better starting pitching than the Brewers.

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Kaitlyn McGrath (Philadelphia): I picked the Phillies to win the World Series, so I have to ride them or die. The Mets have momentum, but the Phillies are the deeper team and I think their layoff will prove to be an advantage against a Mets team that has been playing a lot of baseball lately.

C. Trent Rosecrans (Philadelphia): It almost feels like Zack Wheeler is giving the Phillies a one-game lead to start the series, and that’s always hard to overcome.

Melissa Lockard (Philadelphia): The Mets have a magical feel, but the Phillies are built for the postseason. The third time should be the charm for this core.

Noah Furtado (New York): Mets magic, continued.

The Dodgers may be No. 1, but they aren’t in the majority of our experts’ roster. (Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

San Diego Padres (4) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (1)

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Stephen J. Nesbitt (San Diego): The Dodgers’ rotation is suspect. There, I said it! Deeply suspicious! I think it’s important to start pitching in October, and I still think that category is undeniably leaning toward San Diego, even with Joe Musgrove injured. Listen, this is going to be a super fun series. Both lineups are powerful. The bullpens can lock in leads. (And they’ll be asked to do some heavy lifting.) But the Padres played well against the Dodgers this season, going 8-5 head-to-head, and I think they’ll continue to be good in this series.

Andy McCullough (Los Angeles): The Padres may have the more complete team, but the Dodgers have star power. Specifically: Shohei Ohtani.

Andrew Baggarly (San Diego): Padres in 4. (For entertainment purposes only and intended for users 18 years of age or older.)

Zack Meisel (San Diego): A short series and a lot of days off is a perfect setup for a loaded Padres pen.

Sahadev Sharma (San Diego): A little concerned about Musgrove, but I still like that the dads are accepting of this.

Jen McCaffrey (Los Angeles): The Dodgers have been beat up all year and still found ways to win.

Patrick Mooney (San Diego): San Diego’s bullpen and timely hitting should frustrate an opponent who will feel all the pressure.

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Sam Blum (San Diego): The Dodgers may be the best team in baseball during the regular season, but their pitching situation is far from ready for the postseason. This could be another quick playoff exit in Los Angeles.

Eno Sarris (San Diego): The Padres can bang with the Dodgers bats and have a better pitching staff.

Katie Woo (San Diego): The Dodgers-Padres rivalry is real. Confronting the three-headed dragon Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman is tough, but these Padres are not afraid. Pitching also matters here, and the Padres have the upper hand even with Joe Musgrove injured. Dylan Cease is a real ace and Michael King is a budding star. Jack Flaherty has helped build the Dodgers’ rotation, but starting pitching has been the biggest concern for Los Angeles all season. They’ve done a good job of revamping their rotation in the regular season, but shortcomings will quickly become apparent in October.

Keith Law (San Diego): The Dodgers were the better team over the course of the regular season, but they don’t bring the healthier roster into this series, and I have no confidence in any of their starting pitchers. Meanwhile, the Padres can at least start the series with Cease and Darvish, and potentially work around the loss of Joe Musgrove in a five-game set.

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Kaitlyn McGrath (San Diego): I pick the Padres just because of the atmosphere. They actually topped the Dodgers 8-5 in season series. They’re coming off their Wild Card Series win over the Braves and they look like a team ready to do something special this postseason.

C. Trent Rosecrans (San Diego): The biggest question is how the Dodgers will cover their innings. It will be difficult and the Padres have the weapons to take advantage of that uncertainty.

Melissa Lockard (San Diego): The Padres may be a little Joe Musgrove, but their pitching is still healthier than the Dodgers and the lineup is clicking.

Noah Furtado (Los Angeles): I think this one will play all five games. Both teams are comparably talented, although the Padres likely have the more complete roster. But I’ll take the Dodgers in Game 5 at Dodger Stadium.

(Top photo: Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)