Exit polls miss the mark again: results from Haryana and J&K prove pollsters wrong | India News – Times of India

NEW DELHI: The exit polls I’m wrong again. In Haryana, the BJP has won an emphatic victory over the Congress, while in J&K, the National Conference-Congress alliance has secured a majority. Both results are contrary to what pollsters had predicted in the exit polls.
The exit polls in Haryana had predicted a clean sweep for the Congress, with most pollsters giving the old party more than 50 seats and the BJP less than 30. In J&K, the pollsters had predicted a failed meeting with the National Conference. -Congress alliance in favor of the BJP.
The exit polls had predicted a good performance by the Congress in Haryana. Matrize gave 55 to 62 seats to the Congress, and only 18 to 24 seats to the ruling BJP. People’s Pulse gave the Congress 49 to 61 seats, while the BJP gave 20 to 32 seats. Dainik Bhaskar predicted 44 to 54 seats for the Congress and 15 to 29 seats for the BJP. Dhruv Research gave 50 to 64 seats to the Congress and 22 to 32 seats to the BJP. However, the actual results are far off, raising questions about the reliability of the exit poll process.
In J&K, all the exit polls had given the National Conference-Congress alliance an advantage but had predicted a deadlocked assembly. The C-Voter survey had predicted that the National Conference-Congress alliance would win 40-48 seats, while the BJP would win 20-25 seats. Dainik Bhaskar predicted that the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance would win 35 to 40 seats and the BJP would secure 20 to 25 seats. Opinion polls by Axis My India predicted the NC-Congress alliance to win between 35 and 45 seats and the BJP 24-34 seats. However, the final results show a comfortable majority for the Congress-NC alliance.
National Conference Vice President Omar Abdullah was not wrong when he called the exit polls “just a waste of time.” “I’m surprised that channels are bothering with exit polls, especially after the fiasco of the recent general election. I’m ignoring all the noise on channels, social media, WhatsApp etc because the only numbers that matter will be out on October 8 be made. The rest is just a matter of time,” Abdullah had posted on X, despite the fact that most exit polls had given his party a lead.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, all exit polls failed to capture the voters as they predicted a landslide victory for the ruling BJP-led NDA. However, it turned out that the NDA ended up with just 293 seats when the actual results came. Unlike 2014 and 2019, the BJP failed to win a simple majority on its own and ended up with 240 seats. This was 63 seats fewer than the 303 seats they had won earlier in 2019. The Congress-led INDIA bloc won 235 seats, proving that most exit polls are inaccurate. There have also been several elections in the past where the exit polls failed to predict the results correctly.