Analysing Manchester United manager alternatives to Erik ten Hag: Hoeness, Van Nistelrooy, Tuchel and more
Manchester United fans must feel like they are trapped in a recurring nightmare.
A goalless draw against Aston Villa was underpinned by an improved defensive performance on Sunday, but three consecutive Premier League games without scoring, just eight points from their opening seven matches, and a goal difference of minus three makes for their club’s worst start to a Premier League season.
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And for many people, the natural direction to point the finger in this situation is at the manager.
After a season review in which INEOS spoke with multiple managerial candidates including Thomas Tuchel and Roberto De Zerbi, the decision was made to stick with Erik ten Hag and support him in the transfer market this summer.
Performance data would have likely contributed to such a review and a rudimentary look at the trend of United’s ClubElo rating — which is a measure of team strength that allocates points for every result, weighted by the quality of the opposition faced — offers little reason for optimism in fortunes since the Dutchman arrived.
Ten Hag has spoken confidently about the faith he feels United’s executives have in him, something he reiterated even after the damaging Spurs defeat.
“We made the decision, after a clear review, what we have to improve as an organisation and how to construct a squad,” Ten Hag said. “All decisions were made in togetherness, also knowing it would take some time given how the window went. We are all there on one page, one boat, the ownership, the leadership group, the staff, the players, too.”
Today, that leadership group, including two of the co-owners, Joel Glazer and Sir Jim Ratcliffe, will gather in London for a long-scheduled executive meeting. The performance and future of the manager are expected to form part of the discussions.
One question United executives have to consider when deliberating over Ten Hag’s future is whether or not there are better managerial options out there now than they found and decided against last summer. The contract or job situations of some of those considered then (such as Kieran McKenna who extended his stay at Ipswich and De Zerbi, now of Marseille) have also changed, while others remain in situ (such as Thomas Frank at Brentford and Marco Silva at Fulham), and others (such as Tuchel) are still out of work.
So if United do think about making a change, who should they be considering?
Here The Athletic’s data analyst Mark Carey looks at a selection of possible alternatives focusing largely on those not considered in the summer.
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It has been another difficult period for Erik ten Hag (James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images)
Many fans have expressed frustration over Gareth Southgate’s rumoured links due to his ties with INEOS head of sport Sir Dave Brailsford, but it does speak to the idea that United could benefit from having a manager with a near-ambassadorial presence.
Amid the external noise and sensationalist perspectives that surrounded England’s national team across his tenure, Southgate has proven he can navigate choppy waters and ensure that his players perform on the pitch. Given the ongoing transition occurring at boardroom level, that is not to be underestimated at United in the medium term.
Could Southgate’s ambassadorial style suit the INEOS ethos? (Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)
By the same token, a strong character in the shape of Zinedine Zidane has merit, with the Frenchman leading Real Madrid to three successive Champions League trophies from 2016 to 2018. Zidane has not been famed for his teams playing a particular style of football, with an approach that was more pragmatic than dogmatic.
However, his ability to command a dressing room and sustain a winning mentality are two huge ticks on the checklist. As unlikely as it may be, a well-respected figure who can manage a squad of personalities can sometimes be enough to get results at the elite level.
The same traits can be levelled at Massimiliano Allegri, who is an unattached manager since departing Juventus (for the second time) this summer. Allegri’s own tactical acumen is not to be underestimated, but the authority and standards the 57-year-old demands would be appealing.
Things did not go perfectly to plan in the Italian’s second stint as Juventus manager, winning a solitary Italian Cup since returning to Turin in 2021. His football might not always be maximum entertainment, but a man who is capable of managing up as well as down could be a valuable asset to have as United set their sights on a Premier League title by 2028.
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Sacking a manager during a season can be a thankless task and United have experienced mixed results with interim appointments. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s caretaker position in 2018 resulted in a permanent role that lifted the mood at Old Trafford, while Ralf Rangnick’s interim tenure was underwhelming, to say the least.
Solskjaer has recently said he would be open to returning to the club if the opportunity was offered to him. In light of recent seasons, this may seem appealing to some fans, but there is likely to be some revisionism of Solskjaer’s tenure, which ended poorly. The prospect of another reunion would feel like a step back in United’s progression.
Could United return to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer? (Chloe Knott – Danehouse/Getty Images)
The appeal of hiring a manager who “understands the club” can often be quite reductive. While they may progress into high-profile roles, suggestions of former players Wayne Rooney (Plymouth) or Michael Carrick (Middlesbrough) feel premature in their respective coaching careers. Both have a strong affinity with the club — Carrick having had a caretaker role at United — but sentiment should not be a leading factor in a club’s search.
If United are eyeing former players, they shouldn’t overlook current assistant Ruud van Nistelrooy, who led PSV Eindhoven to second place in the Eredivisie in 2022-23.
Using The Athletic’s playstyle wheel, which outlines how a team look to play compared with Europe’s top seven domestic leagues, we can get a broad idea of the Dutchman’s sole season in the dugout.
Blessed with a stacked forward line containing Johan Bakayoko, Cody Gakpo, Luuk de Jong, and Xavi Simons, PSV adopted a direct style (Patient attack, 19 out of 99) that focused on width from their marauding wingers (Central progression, 53 out of 99). It wasn’t always smooth sailing, but only Benfica averaged higher than PSV’s 2.2 non-penalty expected goals per 90 across Europe’s top seven leagues.
Conflict with the coaching staff and players meant Van Nistelrooy left PSV before the end of the 2022-23 campaign. While the Dutchman can offer a lot to the coaching setup, there is little suggestion that he currently has — nor wants — the management experience required at the elite level.
Kieran McKenna, however, sits in the overlap between “knows the club” and “up-and-coming tactician” after guiding Ipswich Town to back-to-back promotions since joining them for his first job in senior management in December 2021.
McKenna held roles as United academy coach and progressed to the first-team setup under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Ralf Rangnick, but committed his future to Ipswich by signing a new four-year deal this summer, making an impending move elsewhere highly unlikely in the short term. However, United fans are keenly monitoring the Northern Irishman’s progress in the Premier League.
McKenna is both an up-and-coming tactician and also ‘knows the club’ (Bryn Lennon/Getty Images)
With United’s game model alarmingly unclear at the moment, perhaps what INEOS should consider is a manager who is capable of punching above their weight relative in the football food chain.
Brest’s Eric Roy would jump out, having led his side to the Champions League for the first time in their history after a third-place finish in Ligue 1 last season. Similarly, Heidenheim’s Frank Schmidt has performed miracles in guiding his hometown club from the fifth tier of German football into the Bundesliga and now the UEFA Conference League this season.
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Beyond Xabi Alonso’s invincible Bayer Leverkusen, Stuttgart were the Bundesliga’s overachievers after Sebastian Hoeness led them to a second-place finish above Bayern Munich. Having been appointed at the end of the 2022-23 season, the 41-year-old guided Stuttgart away from the relegation zone and into this year’s Champions League within 18 months.
From a low-possession, counter-attacking team last campaign, Hoeness has transformed Stuttgart into a dominant, progressive side that can suffocate teams in their own defensive third (Field tilt, 86 out of 99) and press from the front (Intensity, 78 out of 99).
Hoeness has guided Stuttgart into the Champions League (Harry Langer/DeFodi Images via Getty Images)
Only Alonso’s Leverkusen (73) generated more shot-ending high turnovers than Stuttgart (61) last season, as Hoeness had a tangible impact on Stuttgart’s style across the board.
Dino Toppmoller is this season’s version of Hoeness, with Eintracht Frankfurt catching the eye after winning four of their opening five league games. Having served as Julian Nagelsmann’s assistant coach at RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich, it is unsurprising that Toppmoller likes his side to play with a front-foot approach on and off the ball.
The 43-year-old has the attacking duo of Omar Marmoush and Hugo Ekitike to call upon as Frankfurt’s main attacking threats and is quickly emerging as one of Europe’s best young coaches.
Topmoller is a rising star of football management (Cathrin Mueller/Getty Images)
Staying in Germany, Thomas Tuchel remains on the shortlist for most clubs after leaving Bayern Munich in the summer.
Despite a disappointing season relative to Bayern’s standards, the underlying numbers from Tuchel’s side show how dominant they have still been in both boxes. Competing with a history-making, invincible Bayer Leverkusen side was not part of the plan, but Bayern’s 1.6 xG difference per 90 — which accounts for the quality of chances created and conceded — was the best of any side across Europe’s top five leagues.
For context, United’s xG difference sat at -0.3 per 90 — good enough for… 72nd on the list.
Tuchel’s tactical acumen is undeniable, but question marks over his temperament might be a factor that works against him. Across his three most recent roles at Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea and Bayern Munich, he averaged a tenure of one year, nine months and 15 days. If United are looking for stability with a long-term vision, Tuchel might not be the best man to hand the keys to. United met Tuchel in the summer, getting to the point of discussing financials but ultimately did not employ him, so any issues that prevented a deal at that point would need resolving, too.
Across the border, United have frequently looked to the Netherlands for player and coaching talent, but might they have missed one crucial man? Peter Bosz led PSV to the Eredivisie title last season with the most potent attacking numbers in Europe (2.7 non-penalty expected goals per 90) and they look to be continuing their form this season with seven league wins in seven games.
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Despite losing the individual talent of Gakpo, Simons, Noni Madueke and Ibrahima Sangare in recent windows, Bosz got his side working as a cohesive unit to bulldoze their way to the league title. As you can see by their stylistic evolution over time, Bosz shifted the dial on nearly every measure after taking over from Van Nistelrooy.
There have been mixed fortunes for Bosz during his time as manager of Ajax, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen and Lyon, but the Dutchman has got this PSV side cooking since he took over in 2023.
In Italy, Gian Piero Gasperini finally got the silverware his career has warranted after leading Atalanta to Europa League glory in the summer — becoming the oldest coach to win a final of a major European competition on his debut.
Gasperini would bring a wealth of experience and a front-foot, aggressive style of play on and off the ball — one that can frustrate the elite sides as shown recently in Atalanta’s goalless draw with Arsenal in the Champions League.
The remit would be entirely different at a club on the scale of United, but Gasperini has evidenced his ability to overperform with the tools he has at his disposal. As The Athletic’s James Horncastle has previously stated, the 66-year-old does not get the credit he deserves for his achievements in Bergamo.
“They’ve normalised the extraordinary!”@JamesHorncastle discusses Gian Piero Gasperini’s incredible work at Atalanta…
🎙️ @julesbreach pic.twitter.com/IYOvjlutjH
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) April 11, 2024
Finally, why not consider Bournemouth’s Andoni Iraola, who has garnered praise across the Premier League for his own aggressive, counter-pressing style of play?
Bournemouth’s direct approach will often see the ball played long into the opposition’s third before squeezing the space and regaining the ball in advanced positions. In the early weeks of the season, only Tottenham Hotspur have won possession more in the attacking third than Bournemouth’s 47 occasions as Iraola’s style looks to be deeply embedded in his squad.
Iraola has settled well into the Premier League but at a much smaller club than United (Andrew Matthews/PA Images via Getty Images)
It might not be to everyone’s taste, but a well-drilled, clear identity is not to be underestimated in a coach — it is something United still look to be searching for this season under Ten Hag.
(Top photo: Getty Images)
