Will hurricanes become even stronger as the planet warms?
Hurricane Milton, which increased from a tropical storm on Sunday to a Category 5 hurricane on Monday, is a prime example of how quickly hurricanes can escalate. With sustained winds of up to 180 mph (298 km/h), Milton weakened slightly before possibly making landfall on the Florida coast around October 9 or 10, 2024. This begs the question: how powerful can hurricanes become?
There is a theoretical upper limit to hurricane strength, known as maximum potential intensity. Although current models place this limit at approximately 200 mph (322 km/h), it has not been resolved. As climate change progresses, ocean temperatures are expected to rise, which could push this threshold higher. According to Kerry Emanuel, an atmospheric scientist at MIT, storms of more than 220 miles per hour could be possible by the end of the century if carbon emissions are not curbed.
What affects hurricane force?
Hurricanes get their energy from warm ocean water. The higher the sea temperature, the more fuel a storm needs to intensify. In addition to the ocean heat, factors such as wind shear and atmospheric conditions play a crucial role. For example, too much wind shear can disrupt the structure of a hurricane and weaken it.
However, the trend towards stronger storms is undeniable. Research by James Kossin, a retired NOAA climate scientist, shows that the number of major hurricanes has increased in recent decades and more and more storms are reaching their full potential intensity.
Should there be a category 6?
Currently, the Saffir-Simpson scale limits hurricane strength to Category 5, which includes storms with sustained winds exceeding 155 miles per hour. However, some scientists, including Michael Wehner of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, believe a new Category 6 should be introduced for storms traveling at more than 200 miles per hour.
