There is no such thing, the American 18th-century founder Benjamin Franklin said, as “a good war or a bad peace.” The current president is about to test Dictum to the utmost.
Donald Trump indicated yesterday that he and Vladimir Putin start negotiations immediately when the war in Ukraine ends.
This comes a day after he had taken FOX News that he believes that Ukraine may be 'one day', adding that it is time for the government of Volodymyr Zensky to the billions of dollars and help of the US under Joe Biden to be paid back.
“I told them that I want it equivalent, such as $ 500 billion in rare earth,” said Trump, referring to the untouched metals and minerals among the steppes of Eastern Ulprain that can be invaluable for the American electronics and electric vehicle industry .
At the same time, the US Minister of Defense Pete Hegseeth stated that it is 'unrealistic' for Ukraine to demand a return to his limits from before 2014, prior to the Russian annexation of Crimea. He also made it clear that Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO.
At first glance, the peace plan that Washington has in mind is close to a defeat for Ukraine.
Russia will be retaining the Donbas in the east, a large part of which has been under control for years about rebels supported by Russia, as well as vast areas in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions that form the so -called 'Landbrug' for Crimea.
Donald Trump indicated yesterday that he and Vladimir Putin will immediately start negotiations for the end of the war in Ukraine
Zensky (photo) is likely to decide that an unjust peace scheme is better than a war that he will eventually lose without American support, writes Mark Almond
Russia currently has 20 percent of the grounds within the borders of Ukraine from 1991. But there are strong reasons for Zensky to accept, even if it could spell the end of his political career.
Under his leadership, Ukraine has done the impossible and rejected an invasion of his much larger, intensely aggressive neighbor.
Certainly, when Putin ordered the first Blitzkrieg in February 2022, he did not expect that the resistance would endure more than a few days.
Ukraine has even launched a counterface and seized packages of the Western Russian country in Kursk, although this is unlikely that this will be an effective negotiating instrument, it might be a retreat as a starting point for negotiations.
Russian victims, an estimated 200,000 dead, are probably three or even five times higher than those of Ukraine. But Moscow can resist those losses much better.
Zensky will probably decide that an unjust peace regulation is better than a war that he will eventually lose without American support.
The worst consequence of defying Trump could be the US and Russia, jointly change more heat on Ukraine – unthinkable, you could say, but nothing is impossible with Donald Trump in the White House.
US President Donald Trump (L) talks to Russian President Vladimir Putin while attending the APEC Economic Leaders' meeting in 2017 in the central Vietnamese city of Danang
At least with American mining companies that run into the eastern territories of Ukraine to store the rare earthy sources, Kyiv can be hopeful that Putin will no longer invade. American companies are a better buffer than any peace force.
European countries are divided on the issue of managing their own troops to guarantee peace. Nobody will enjoy the prospect of jeopardizing their soldiers.
But the Russian despoot will not give up the war just because he has won peace. Russia is now a fully militarized economy and there is no return without a financial implosion.
And their generals now have three years of experience in warfare with drones and other modern equipment – do not experience European land stocks.
Peace in Ukraine will activate wars elsewhere. Putin could decide to grab the oil fields of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan.
The frightening question for the West is whether he wants the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania – and what NATO will do if he does.
Mark Almond is director of the Crisis Research Institute in Oxford
