Racing expert CHRIS LINES tells you which horses to back and which ones you MUST avoid in Daily Mail Australia’s Melbourne Cup form guide
It’s Melbourne Cup time again, when some once-a-year punters win big with crazy omen bets while most tear up their office sweep tickets while swearing that it’s all rigged anyway – but we’re here to help.
The assignment for any gambler is a daunting one: a huge 24-horse field, mixed form lines from across the globe, handicap conditions, and a two-mile distance which many in the field have never encountered let alone conquered.
For those who don’t care much about the form but just want something to focus on, the assignment is simple: St George’s light grey coat will make him the easiest to spot, there are three female runners – Zardozi, Positivity and The Map – and four female jockeys: Jamie Kah on Okita Soushi, Rachel King on The Map, Winona Costin on Positivity and English visitor Hollie Doyle on Sea King.
Those of Irish heritage can back – with justifiable confidence – the two runners from the Emerald Isle, Vauban and Absurde, while the Kiwis will need to really cross their fingers to get any of Trust In You, or Positivity or Sharp’n’Smart into the placings.
But for those who like to crunch the form – or at least sound like they do – the task is much more difficult.
Buckaroo is most likely to start favourite. He was only beaten a nose two starts back on this track behind Via Sistina, who then came out and crushed a top-class field in the Cox Plate. If that wasn’t enough, Buckaroo then had an impressive fast-finishing second in the Caulfield Cup.
He’s prepared by Chris Waller of Winx fame, and has the services of the jockey they call ‘Magic Man’ in Joao Moreira, who has a tricky task from barrier 21.
The only horse with comparably impressive lead-up form is Zardozi, trained by James Cummings, whose grandfather Bart won a record 12 Melbourne Cups.
Once-a-year punters have a daunting task trying to decide which horse to put their money on – but Daily Mail Australia is here to help (pictured, racegoers at last year’s Cup)
There are 24 horses to choose from this year, bar any late scratchings – and many of them have never raced over the two-mile distance before (pictured, a racegoer celebrates last year)
Bart always ran his Cup horses on the Saturday before the big one, and Zardozi is the only horse in the field this year to have done so, putting in an eye-catching big finish.
Zardozi has had five runs at Flemington; Saturday’s flashing finish followed two wins and two seconds from the previous four. Those who believe in ‘horses for courses’ will be well advised to back her.
Circle of Fire’s odds blew out after drawing the outside barrier for the Cup, and his lead-up form has admittedly been ordinary, albeit against top-class fields.
However, jockey Mark Zahra has ridden the past two Cup winners, the horse did win this year’s Sydney Cup over this distance, and trainer Ciaron Maher is a master of preparing stayers.
Zahra is among the best jockeys in a race in which, frankly, some pretty mediocre riders have got a start for no reason other than they can get down to 50kg.
One that is far from mediocre is Craig Williams, who is fresh off guiding Bella Nippotina to victory in The Everest.
He gets the ride on UK raider Onesmoothoperator, who could hardly have been more impressive in bounding clear to win comfortably in the Geelong Cup.
Irish trainer Willie Mullins, who trained Max Dynamite to two Melbourne Cup placings, is back and so are his highly fancied runners Vauban and Absurde.
Vauban was the hot horse for the Cup last year and loomed up as a winner on the turn but couldn’t run out the distance in warm conditions.
Jockey Mark Zahra celebrates after making it two Cup wins in a row on Without a Fight last year – he’ll be going for his hat-trick on Circle of Fire on Tuesday
The weather forecast is for clear skies and temperatures up to 25 degrees – music to the ears of glamorous stars like Jessie Murphy (pictured at last year’s Cup) but not so good for mudlark horses that will be hoping for a wet track
The trainer has given him less work this time to keep him fresher, and given he runs over this kind of marathon distance every start, you would expect him to be right up there in the closing stages and tough to run down.
Absurde also ran in the Cup last year, and impressively so, as he led up until the final furlong. He should be a better, stronger horse this year.
Jamie Kah will get plenty of backers as Australia’s top female jockey, and she’s in hot form, having ridden outsider Goldrush Guru to victory in the Derby.
She rides local hope Okita Soushi – no, it’s not Japanese – in the Cup and it’s a genuine chance based on his previous start, when he made an early charge for the line and just kept on going when you thought he was bound to be swamped.
A victory for Jamie might see her challenge for the title of first lady of Australian racing, which has long been held by Gai Waterhouse, who is back again with frontrunner Just Fine.
Just Fine has been very up and down in his performances, but if it’s an ‘up’ day and he can steal a break at the front of the field, his best effort could see him lead for a long way.
Those who place a lot of importance on barrier draws – and it can be crucial over the two miles at Flemington – will be tempted to put some money on grinding stayer Athabascan who will get a soft rails run from barrier two and should have plenty of late energy as others tire.
Here’s your runner-by-runner guide to the 2024 Cup…
1. VAUBAN (Ire) Trainer: Willie Mullins. Jockey: William Buick
Was at a short price in last year’s Cup but found nothing in the straight. After six months of rest he has been running well in high-class staying contests back home. The most genuine stayer in the field, he’ll be right up there in the straight.
2. BUCKAROO (Aus) Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Joao Moreira
Two starts out he was just nosed out on this track by Via Sistina who went on to a smashing victory in the Cox Plate. Backed that up with a second in the Caulfield Cup. If he can conserve energy in the run, he’s got the zip to run past the leaders.
3. CIRCLE OF FIRE (Aus) Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Mark Zahra
Sydney Cup winner hasn’t shown much in his three starts this spring. He’ll run out the two miles, and has the jockey-trainer combo to win it, but must overcome the dreaded outside barrier.
Vauban (pictured) is the most genuine stayer in the field and is a favourite with punters and experts alike
Zahra’s wife Elyse (left) stole the show with her wild celebrations last year – and could be in line for a repeat dose with hubby Mark on a good chance
4. WARP SPEED (Japan) Trainer: Noboru Takagi. Jockey: Akira Sugawara
Caulfield Cup was his first start in six months, and didn’t show much. Will be fitter for that run, but would be a leap of faith to back him. Drawn nicely in 3, and Japan did quinella the Cup in 2006, so can’t be written off.
5. KOVALICA (Aus) Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Damian Lane
A get-back runner who likes to charge home. Often eye-catching but rarely successful; he hasn’t won in his past 15 starts. Never a factor in Cox Plate. Would need everything to go right, but has more ability than many of these.
6. SHARP’N’SMART (Aus) Trainer: Graeme Rogerson. Jockey: Michael Dee
Veteran trainer Graeme Rogerson brings over this Kiwi galloper and knows how to win the Cup. Won big races here and in NZ as a young horse, but been a while since he’s shown that form.
7. JUST FINE (Aus) Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott. Jockey: Jye McNeil
Front runner was a surprise winner of the Bart Cummings two starts back but then dropped out quickly in the MV Gold Cup. Should be prominent at the home turn but hard to see him holding off a quality field.
After a tip that offers great value? You could to a lot worse than Kovalica (pictured)
8. LAND LEGEND (Aus) Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Zac Purton
Showed plenty in winning The Metropolitan two starts back and followed that with a third in the Caulfield Cup despite pulling too hard. Has a touch of class and if he can relax better, could be a contender.
9. ABSURDE (Ire) Trainer: Willie Mullins. Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Back for another crack after he led until the final furlong in last year’s Cup. A more seasoned horse now, he is capable of even better, but hard to gauge form. Jockey has won the Cup three times before.
10. ATHASBASCAN (Aus) Trainer: John O’Shea. Jockey: Zac Lloyd
Runner-up in this year’s Sydney Cup, the former French galloper has been consistent in his two years here. Won last start, and the runner-up from that race then put in a storming finish on the weekend which franks that form. Drawn beautifully in 2.
11. KNIGHT’S CHOICE (Aus) Trainer: Jon Symons & Sheila Laxon. Jockey: Robbie Dolan
Been outclassed in strong races this spring. Would need wet weather to really be a chance, and unlikely to get it. Entitled to be at very long odds.
12. OKITA SOUSHI (Aus) Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Jamie Kah
Peaking at the right time, with a last-start win in the MV Gold Cup. An honest on-pacer who ran midfield in the Cup last year, he has the services of in-form jockey and is capable of sustaining a long run.
13. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (UK) Trainer: Brian Ellison. Jockey: Craig Williams
A little-mentioned UK raider until he won the Geelong Cup with eye-catching acceleration. Looking to follow Media Puzzle, Americain and Dunaden as visitors to do the Geelong-Melbourne double. Genuine chance.
14.ZARDOZI (Aus) Trainer: James Cummings. Jockey: Andrea Atzeni
Came within a length of completing a rare Oaks double in the autumn, and unlucky not to win the Metropolitan this spring. The only runner backing up from Saturday, this consistent mare is racing in great heart and loves Flemington.
15. SEA KING (UK) Trainer: Harry Eustace. Jockey: Hollie Doyle
English galloper has the services of UK’s top female jockey. Has won four of seven this preparation, and showed he’s adapted nicely to Australian conditions by winning the Bendigo Cup with a gut-busting sustained run. Gets benefit of No.1 barrier.
16. VALIANT KING (Aus) Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Craig Newitt
Hasn’t showed much in his four local starts since arriving last spring. Did run on creditably without threatening in the Caulfield Cup, but needs a big improvement to challenge here.
17. FANCY MAN (Aus) Trainer: Annabel Neasham. Jockey: Ron Stewart
Had almost a year off after winning last year’s Queensland Cup. Has been going okay this spring, but hard to make a case for him winning this.
Legendary trainer Gai Waterhouse (pictured) will be hoping to add to her 2013 Melbourne Cup victory as she pins her hopes on frontrunner Just Fine
18. INTERPRETATION (Aus) Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Teo Nugent
Unlucky not to run a place in last year’s Cup when he rattled home. Put in his best run since by taking second in the Geelong Cup with another powerful finish. If he can replicate that form, look for him flashing home late.
19. MANZOICE (Aus) Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Declan Bates
The fifth Waller runner hasn’t won a race since taking out the 2022 VRC Derby. Two lead-up runs have been unflattering, and would need a sharp improvement to be competitive in this.
20. MOSTLY CLOUDY (Aus) Trainer: Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young. Jockey: Karis Teetan
Consistent stayer blotted copybook with a rearward finish in the Bart Cummings. Has had a month off to freshen. She’s a true stayer but not quite up to this class.
21. POSITIVITY (Aus) Trainer: Andrew Forsman. Jockey: Winona Costin
The ex-NZ mare looked a Cup smoky with top showings to start this preparation, but the past two runs have been pretty humdrum. Lightly raced and has more room for improvement than most, but will need it.
22. SAINT GEORGE (Aus) Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Tyler Schiller
Ex-English stallion who hasn’t won in four local starts but worked to the line very nicely in the MV Gold Cup. Is prepared by a trainer who has a habit of sharply improving raw stayers. Minimum weight knockout chance.
23. THE MAP (Aus) Trainer: Dan Clarken & Oopy MacGillivray. Jockey: Rachel King
SA mare has performed well in strong races. Lead-up form hasn’t been particularly eye-catching. Lightweight hope but must contend with an awkward barrier.
24. TRUST IN YOU (NZ) Trainer: Bruce Wallace & Grant Cooksley. Jockey: Mark Du Plessis
Kiwi gelding has had a couple of decent runs leading in but one win on 16 races on good tracks indicates he’s not going to get the conditions to suit here.
TIPS: THE BEST AND WORST CHANCES
It’s hard to ever be confident about picking the winner of the Cup, as evident from the face that last year’s winner Without a Fight was the first in ten years to have been in single-figure odds.
But for those looking to tie me down to one selection, I’d say Buckaroo, provided you can get odds of at least $5.00. From a wide barrier, he’ll need to somehow find a spot without using up too much energy, as he’s not a genuine stayer and will need to switch off in the run. Joao Moreira will likely look to tuck him away, and weave into the clear in the straight.
For those going for quinellas, trifectas and first fours – which can be extremely lucrative given the amount of silly money in the betting pools – I’ll be basing my bets around six horses.
Buckaroo is Daily Mail Australia racing expert Chris Lines’s tip to be first past the post in the race that stops a nation
Behind Buckaroo, I fancy the consistent, super fit and in-form mare Zardozi, who relishes this track.
A third pick, and one for the value betters, is Kovalica. Been a long time between wins and has gone under the radar this preparation, but trainer Chris Waller seems to quietly prepared him to peak for this one race.
The other three I’d put in are Okita Soushi, Sea King and Onesmoothoperator, who are are all coming off wins that suggest they will see out the distance strongly.
1. Buckaroo
2. Zardozi
3. Kovalica
4. Okita Soushi
5. Sea King
6. Onesmoothoperator
