How the Federal Reserve’s decisions affect mortgage rates
The Federal Reserve has one Interest rate reduction of 0.25% during this week’s policy meeting on November 7. The country’s central bank earlier cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.5% on September 18, the first cut in more than four years.
Over the past two and a half years, the Fed’s rate hikes have had a negative impact on the housing market, making mortgage rates unaffordable.
Lowering interest rates is preferable to raising them, but potential homebuyers shouldn’t expect mortgage rates to drop immediately. The Fed does not directly set home loan rates: rather, its monetary policy decisions act as a guiding hand for banks and lenders across the country.
Because investor expectations are a key driver of mortgage rate movement, interest rates tend to move ahead of, not behind, the Fed.
“The market currently has an assumption about how many reductions will ultimately occur. That assumption is what is priced into the current longer-term interest rate,” he said Matt Graham of Mortgage News daily.
Mortgage rates should decline over the next eighteen months, but they are often volatile and can experience ups and downs on a daily basis regardless of what the Fed does. The overall state of the economy will play a major role in determining when and to what extent interest rates are cut.
“The outlook for mortgage rates will depend on incoming labor market and inflation data, along with any signals from the Fed about future rate cuts,” he said. Odeta Kushideputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation.
Here’s what you need to know about how government interest rate policy affects mortgage rates.
What does the Federal Reserve do?
The Fed was founded by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 setting and monitoring U.S. monetary policy to stabilize the economy. It consists of 12 regional banks and 24 branches, and is led by a board of governors who are voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee. The FOMC sets the benchmark interest rate at which banks borrow and lend money.
In an inflationary environment, the Fed uses rate hikes to make borrowing money more expensive and slow economic growth. Banks typically pass on interest rate increases to consumers in the form of higher interest rates on longer-term loans, including home loans. When the economy is in a recession, the Fed lowers interest rates to stimulate consumer spending and stimulate growth.
Read more: How jobs data could impact mortgage rates in 2024
How does the Fed influence mortgage rates?
The Federal Reserve does not directly set mortgage rates, but influences them by making changes to the federal funds rate, the interest rate that banks charge each other for short-term loans. The Fed’s decisions change the price of credit, which has a domino effect on mortgage rates and the broader housing market.
“When the Fed raises rates to slow the economy, interest rate-sensitive sectors like technology, finance and housing are typically the first to feel the impact,” he said. Alex Thomassenior research analyst at John Burns Research and Consulting.
It’s important to keep an eye on what the Fed is doing: its decisions affect your money in multiple ways, including the annual interest rate on your credit cards, the returns on your savings accounts, and even your stock portfolio.
Read more: What inflation data means for mortgage rates
How many times will the Fed cut rates in 2024?
So far in 2024, the Fed has now made two rate cuts. The next policy decision this year will take place on December 18. According to his Summary of economic projectionsthe Fed plans to make another 0.25% interest rate cut, but that could always change.
If we get a slew of strong economic data between now and then, the Fed could adjust its rate-cutting plan.
Although mortgage rates are expected to fall in 2025, this will be a slow process. It is unlikely that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will fall below 6% anytime soon.
What factors influence mortgage interest rates?
Mortgage rates change for many of the same reasons as home prices: supply, demand, inflation and even the employment rate. Additionally, the individual mortgage rate you qualify for is determined by personal factors such as your credit score and the amount borrowed.
Economic factors that influence mortgage interest rates
- Fed policy changes: When the Fed adjusts the federal funds rate, it affects many aspects of the economy, including mortgage rates. The federal funds rate affects how much it costs banks to lend money, which in turn affects what banks charge consumers to make a profit.
- Inflation: When inflation is high, mortgage rates tend to be high. As inflation erodes purchasing power, lenders set higher interest rates on loans to make up for that loss and guarantee profits.
- Supply and demand: When demand for mortgages is high, lenders tend to increase interest rates. The reason for this is that lenders can only lend a limited amount of capital in the form of home loans. Conversely, when demand for mortgages is low, lenders lower interest rates to attract borrowers.
- The bond market: Mortgage lenders link fixed interest rates, such as fixed-rate mortgages, to bond rates. Mortgage bonds, also called mortgage-backed securities, are bundles of mortgages sold to investors and are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury bond. When bond yields are high, the bond has less value in the market where investors buy and sell securities, causing mortgage rates to rise.
- Other economic indicators: Employment patterns and other aspects of the economy that influence investor confidence, consumer spending and lending also influence mortgage rates. For example, a strong jobs report and a robust economy could indicate greater demand for housing, which could put upward pressure on mortgage rates. When the economy is slowing and unemployment is high, mortgage interest rates tend to be lower.
Personal factors that influence the mortgage interest rate
The specific factors that determine your specific mortgage rate include:
Is Now a Good Time to Take Out a Mortgage?
While timing is crucial in the mortgage market, you have no control over what the Fed does.
You can get the best rates and terms available by making sure your financial profile is healthy and comparing terms and rates from multiple lenders.
Regardless of the economy, the most important thing when shopping for a mortgage is to make sure you can comfortably afford your monthly payments.
“Buying a home is the biggest financial decision anyone will make,” he says Odeta Kushideputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation. If you’ve found a home that fits your lifestyle and budget, buying a home in today’s housing market can make financial sense, Kushi noted.
If it’s too expensive, you’re better off waiting. “Being on the sidelines allows a potential buyer to continue paying off debt, building credit and saving for the down payment and closing costs,” she said.
The bottom line
When the Federal Reserve adjusts the benchmark interest rate, it indirectly affects mortgage rates. The Fed’s rate cuts will help improve home loan rates, although this won’t be dramatic or immediate. Mortgage rates will also respond to inflation, investor expectations and the broader economic outlook. Experts predict that mortgage rates will slowly decline in the coming year.
If you are looking for a mortgage, compare the rates and terms offered by banks and lenders. The more lenders you interview, the better your chances of getting a lower mortgage rate.
