India
What if India followed the US election system: what would the 2014, 2019 and 2024 results look like? | India News – Times of India
Imagine if India, with its diverse and populous states, were to adopt a similar Electoral College system for its general elections. How would key states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and West Bengal, known for their significant population density, affect the results? In such a model, securing a majority of votes in a few large states could potentially change the entire outcome, making India’s federal elections more strategic and less about direct popular support. With that in mind, let’s explore what the 2014, 2019 and 2024 Indian elections might look like if they were held under an Electoral College system similar to that of the US.
Understanding the Electoral College System
The US Electoral College is a unique voting mechanism used to elect the president. Each state is allocated a specific number of electoral votes based on its population size, with larger states receiving more votes. In almost every state, the candidate who receives a majority of votes claims all the electoral votes for that state – a winner-takes-all approach. To win the presidency, a candidate must secure more than half of the total 538 electoral votes nationally. This system prioritizes wins in populous and diverse states, because winning these bigger prizes is essential to an overall majority.
India’s current system: First Past the Post
The Indian election process for the Lok Sabha (the House of Representatives) follows the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system. In each constituency, the candidate who receives the most votes wins a seat, regardless of the percentage of the total votes. The party or coalition that wins a majority of Lok Sabha seats forms the government. Unlike the US, each individual vote counts toward one national outcome, often allowing one party or coalition to gain power with just a majority, rather than an absolute majority, of the votes.
Methodology: Reimagining 2014, 2019, and 2024 under an Electoral College
To estimate India’s election results under the Electoral College model, we assigned each state a number of “electoral votes” equal to the Lok Sabha seats, since these are already based on the state’s population. This yielded a total of 543 electoral votes. For simplicity, states were categorized as either NDA (BJP-led coalition) or opposition based on highest vote share. Here, the NDA would receive all the electoral votes of a state if it had a majority vote share there, and all other votes would go to the ‘Others’ category, representing opposition alliances and regional parties.
Hypothetical Electoral College results for 2014, 2019, and 2024
2014 General Election
In the actual 2014 elections, the NDA led by the BJP swept the country, winning 282 of the 543 seats. Under an Electoral College system:
NDA (BJP and allies): 337 electoral votes
Others: 182 electoral votes
The winner-takes-all system would have increased the NDA’s victory, giving it a higher electoral total than under the FPTP due to its dominance in populous states.
2019 General Election
In 2019, the NDA further strengthened its position and won 303 seats. Under an Electoral College model:
Secrecy: 355 electoral votes
Others: 164 electoral votes
The outcome of the electoral vote would again be significantly in favor of the NDA. The swing in favor of the NDA in key states would give the country a large majority, increasing its margin of victory over the FPTP model.
2024 general election
In 2024, the NDA won 293 seats, while the opposition alliance INDIA won 234 seats. Under an Electoral College system:
Secrecy: 342 electoral votes
Others: 177 electoral votes
Despite a lower number of seats compared to 2019, the NDA would still retain a majority in the Electoral College, highlighting the impact of winning populous states under this system.
Challenges and Limitations of an Electoral College for India
While the Electoral College model can provide new insights, it poses several challenges when applied to India:Disproportionate representation: As in the US, an Electoral College could over-represent populous states, making regional superpowers less influential. This could disadvantage smaller states and potentially overlook regional diversity in representation.
Winner-takes-all systemic risks: This approach could lead to a substantial disenfranchisement in states where parties narrowly lose. It would disregard the votes of voters who supported other parties but lost by a narrow margin, potentially reducing confidence in the electoral process.
Encourages strategic targeting: Candidates can focus their resources on high-electoral states, for example Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtraneglecting the needs and voices of smaller or less populated regions. This focus could lead to uneven development and political emphasis between states.
Potential for Electoral College Deadlock: With a multi-party system and strong regional alliances, India could face a greater chance of electoral deadlocks. In the US, the two-party system streamlines the Electoral College outcome, while India’s coalition-based structure would make the process much more complicated and potentially lead to protracted election results.
While intriguing as a theoretical exercise, an electoral college in India would likely lead to challenges in maintaining equitable representation across the country. It could benefit large coalitions, but would risk undermining regional voices. By viewing the 2014, 2019 and 2024 elections through this lens, it becomes clear that the current FPTP system, despite its imperfections, is more closely aligned with India’s federal structure and pluralistic society.
