A Lions-Chiefs Super Bowl? Mahomes Reclaiming MVP? The Athletic Staff’s 2024 NFL Predictions
The 2024 season is here. The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs kick off tonight, followed by a Friday night game between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles.
Without wasting time, let’s take a look at The AthleticsNFL recommendations for MVP, Super Bowl champion and more.
Forty-two employees responded (some chose not to answer all, so there are not always 42 responses). Here’s what they think.
Patrick Mahomes has won the award twice already — in 2018 and 2022 — so why not a third time as the Kansas City Chiefs attempt to three-peat? Our staff overwhelmingly voted for the soon-to-be 29-year-old quarterback to do just that.
While quarterbacks dominated our MVP voting, they were second in this category. Tyreek Hill finished fourth in AP Offensive Player of the Year voting two seasons ago and was second last season when he led the league with 1,799 receiving yards, 13 TDs and a personal-best 112.4 receiving yards per game. Our staff expects him to continue his dominance by catching passes from Tua Tagovailoa in Mike McDaniel’s offense in Miami.
In his three NFL seasons, Micah Parsons has finished second, second and third in the Defensive Player of the Year voting. His sack totals have climbed a little each year — from 13 to 13 1/2 to 14 — and signs point to the former Penn State star linebacker breaking out in 2024. Myles Garrett won it last season after a 14-sack campaign that followed five straight double-digit seasons. It appears to be a Parsons-Garrett battle heading into the season, and we’ll see them on the same field on Sunday when the Cowboys visit the Browns.
GALLING DEEPER
The NFL’s Most Intriguing Players: 24 to Watch for the 2024 Season
Six quarterbacks were selected within the first 12 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft, and three are among the five rookies who received votes from our staff in that category. No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams received 31 of the 42 total votes. Expectations are high for the Bears quarterback, to say the least.
GALLING DEEPER
Ten bold predictions for the 2024 NFL season: Packers win NFC North, but Caleb Williams for MVP?
As long as Mahomes is in Kansas City, this feels like the safest bet. The Chiefs have won the last two Super Bowls, three of the last five and played in four of the last five. Mahomes has been named MVP in each of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl victories. The Bengals and Texans both received four votes. Cincinnati lost the 2021 Super Bowl to the Los Angeles Rams, and the Texans haven’t reached a conference title game since joining the league in 2002.
GALLING DEEPER
NFL Executives Rank AFC Teams: Who Threatens the Chiefs? How High Can the Texans Climb?
The Lions made the playoffs for the first time since 2016 last season and reached the NFC Championship Game — losing to the 49ers 34-31 — for the first time since 1991. Can Dan Campbell lead Detroit to its first Super Bowl in franchise history? The Packers and 49ers won’t make it easy, according to our staff.
Surprise…it’s the Chiefs. Okay, that’s not really a surprise. But that’s what happens when you win back-to-back Super Bowls and have Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Chris Jones on your side. The 49ers finished with the second-most votes, fitting after losing to the Chiefs in overtime in last season’s Super Bowl.
Kansas City occupied the top three vote-getting matchups, receiving votes against six different opponents. But our staff likes the Chiefs-Lions showdown best, followed by Chiefs-Packers and a Chiefs-49ers rematch. The best non-Chiefs Super Bowls? Texans vs. Eagles and Bengals vs. Lions.
GALLING DEEPER
NFL Hope-O-Meter Results: Fan Optimism Rankings for All 32 Teams
What they said
“Mike McCarthy. McCarthy has proven he can win in the regular season with three straight 12-5 seasons. But that regular season success hasn’t translated to the playoffs. If that doesn’t change, the Cowboys’ coach will.” — Dan Duggan, Giants Writer
“Nick Sirianni. If you fire and replace both coordinators, the pressure is on you. It’s win or get fired.” — Adam Jahns, Bears Writer
“Robert Saleh. He enters his fourth year in New York with an 18-33 record. Saleh’s personality and position in the league’s most talked-about city have given him more cred than his results have warranted. With Aaron Rodgers back from injury, Saleh and the Jets have no excuses. If this team doesn’t make a run, big changes are coming to New York.” — Josh Kendall, Falcons Writer
“Sean McDermott. He’s going to get a limited amount of chances with Josh Allen to prove he can get the Bills back to the Super Bowl.” — Paul Dehner Jr., Bengals writer
GALLING DEEPER
NFL Win Projections for All 32 Teams in 2024: Experts React to Our Model
“Mike McCarthy: He has 36 regular season wins and one playoff win in the last three seasons and is on an expiring contract with Bill Belichick as a free agent coach. That’s a lot of pressure.” — Jeff Howe, NFL Writer
“Robert Saleh. If he can’t win this season with that defense and a healthy Aaron Rodgers, he might not be around for much longer.” — Adam Hirshfield, NFL Editor
“Nick Sirianni. Was last season’s second-half collapse a fluke or a sign of a bigger problem? The Eagles are talented, but a slow start will turn up the volume and pressure on the man in charge.” — Doug Haller, Cardinals Writer
“Dave Canales. He’s the least proven head coach in the league in terms of overall track record, which means he has the most to prove. There are other coaches who are under more pressure this season, but they are much more experienced/proven.” — Mike Sando, NFL Writer
“Dennis Allen. The Saints are on the short list of mediocre teams that could bottom out this year because some of their top talent is getting older and worse. They have issues at quarterback and could struggle on both the offensive and defensive lines. Things are looking a little dull in New Orleans, and Allen needs to prove that’s not the case.” — Joe Buscaglia, Bills Writer
What they said
“Arizona. Last year you saw the culture come together, now the talent level has gone up a whole season with Kyler Murray.” — Dehner
“The Falcons are in a really good position. The building spirit with Raheem Morris is through the roof, and Kirk Cousins and OC Zac Robinson should really help the skill players shine. They’re also in a very winnable division.” — How
“Tennessee Titans, as they come out of an aggressive offseason following another double-digit loss season, will claw their way into contention in the AFC South and have a shot at the playoffs.” — Mike Jones, NFL Writer
“Denver Broncos. I believe the Sean Payton-Bo Nix combo will work well. I’m not a big fan of the skill-position pieces around Nix, but this is the first time since Payton coached Drew Brees that I’ve seen him have complete confidence in a quarterback. I can see a second-place finish in the AFC West and a possible wild-card spot.” — Larry Holder, NFL Writer
Free daily NFL updates delivered straight to your inbox.
Free daily NFL updates delivered straight to your inbox.
“The Chargers — they have the talent to turn things around and they have a head coach who knows how to win.” — Dan Pompei, NFL Writer
“Cardinals. I’m going to go deep for this one, because anyone can name the Bears. But the Cardinals could be a crafty team for the biggest turnaround, even if they’re still far from a serious contender. They were more competitive than the typical 4-13 team in Jonathan Gannon’s first season as head coach. They were also 1-8 without Kyler Murray and 3-5 after he returned to the lineup. A healthy Murray paired with Marvin Harrison Jr. could quickly turn things around for the Cardinals.” — Duggan
“Seattle Seahawks. Geno Smith should have a nice bounce-back season and the Seahawks defense should be much better with more youth under new head coach Mike Macdonald. The Seahawks also have a very favorable schedule, which should allow them to make a run at the playoffs.” — Nate Taylor, Chiefs Writer
“Falcons. Atlanta gets a new coach with a strong defensive background and leadership skills in Raheem Morris, and a proven quarterback in Kirk Cousins to pair with emerging playmakers Bijan Robinson and Drake London. It also helps that the Falcons play in the NFC South.” — Joe Person, writer of the Panthers
“Washington. The Commanders won just four games last year. I think they can double that and maybe even compete for the NFC East title if things go badly for the Eagles and Cowboys. Dan Quinn improves the defense and Jayden Daniels shows they have a franchise QB.” — Jon Machota, Cowboys Writer
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletics; Photos: Todd Rosenberg, Cooper Neill, Kara Durrette / Getty Images)
