Just a few months ago, it looked like the Republican presidential primaries would feature a frank and vigorous debate about the leadership and limitations of Donald J. Trump.
But any appetite for criticism of Mr. Trump among Republicans has all but evaporated in a very short time. Voters rallied around him after his criminal indictment in March over allegations related to hush money for a porn star, and potential rivals have hesitated, with little willingness to aim directly at the former president and front-runner for the nomination.
In a live town hall on CNN on Wednesday, the cheers for every falsehood and insult Mr. Trump uttered under heavy questioning by a moderator showed that there was little to no daylight between Mr. Trump and the Republican base. A quirky attempt to disrupt the love-in by Chris Christie – a would-be rival who bought Facebook ads to ask audience members skeptical questions like “Why are you afraid to debate?” – went nowhere.
In surveys And focus groups, a fair share of Republican voters say they prefer a less polarizing, more electable candidate. But a near taboo on criticizing Mr. Trump has made it difficult for rivals, aside from Mr. Christie and one or two others at the bottom of the polls, to stand out.
In what appears to be a repeat of the 2016 Republican primaries, almost none of Mr. Trump’s competitors have openly gone after him, despite his blatant vulnerabilities. Instead, they hope – now as then – that he will somehow self-destruct, thereby inheriting his constituents.
After a jury found Mr. Trump liable on Tuesday for assault and defamation of writer E. Jean Carroll, former vice president Mike Pence, who is considering a 2024 campaign, declined to criticize Mr. Trump. In a interview with NBC NewsMr. Pence said it was “just one more story about my former running mate that I know is a great fascination for members of the national media, but I just don’t think it’s the attention of the American people.”
Neither do other 2024 candidates defended Mr. Trump, like the entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, or downplayed the verdict, including Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina. Ms. Haley, who announced her candidacy in February, even this week defended Mr. Trump for threatening to skip Republican primary debates. “With the numbers he has now, why would he enter a debate stage and run that risk?” she said.
Only two 2024 hopefuls found the verdict in the Carroll case disqualifying for a future president: Mr. Christie and Asa Hutchinson, the former governor of Arkansas. Mr Hutchinson criticized Mr Trump’s “disregard for the rule of law”.
Several months ago, polls had suggested Trump could be a potentially weak candidate, with only 25 to 35 percent support from Republican voters in high-quality polls. The Republican National Committee promised an autopsy of the 2022 midterms expected to address Mr Trump’s role in the party’s surprise losses.
But today, the job in the Republican primaries appears to be closing for a candidate who is openly critical of Mr. Trump.
mr. Hutchinson’s long-running campaign has received no attention. Mr. Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, who promised a decision this month on whether to run, has also yet to spark much interest. Even the occasionally critical Mr. Pence, who softly suggested that Mr. Trump would “account” to history for the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, struggles to get confirmation from the Republican base.
And the RNC midterm autopsy? Supposedly a design did not mention Mr. Trump at all.
David Kochel, a Republican strategist who advised Jeb Bush when he ran against Trump in 2016, said there was no opportunity for a candidate to openly criticize Mr Trump in the 2024 primary.
“Voters have seen Trump as the most attacked president of their lives, and they’re allergic to one of them doing it,” Kochel said. “He’s built up these incredible antibodies partly as a result of how the base perceives he’s been treated.”
A CBS News poll released this month, found that of likely Republican primary voters, only an insignificant handful, 7 percent, wanted a candidate who “criticizes Trump.”
The three candidates that voters are least open to considering, the survey found, are those who have criticized Mr. Trump to varying degrees: Mr. Christie, Mr. Hutchinson and Mr. Pence.
David Carney, a New Hampshire Republican strategist, said he had expected the race to be more competitive now, but a turning point occurred in March with Mr Trump’s impeachment in New York.
“It fell into the narrative of the president over the past five years,” Mr Carney said, referring to Mr Trump’s depiction of himself as a victim of a criminal justice system bent on getting him. Mr. Carney described what he called a “boomerang” effect on the Republican primary. “They’re beating up your man – there’s a demonstration around the flag.”
Mr Trump’s rivals could still see a wave of support between now and next year’s first primaries, but for now he dominates all challengers. A poll average shows him with a 30-point lead over his closest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has yet to formally announce his run. All other candidates, declared and potential, are distant afterthoughts in the race for now.
The former president is insulated from criticism, strategists said, because of the intense and entrenched partisanship of the Republican base, and because many of those voters only get information from right-wing sources, who minimized and glossed over the Jan. 6 attack The Loss of Mr. Trump in 2020.
“They barely have access to the truth,” said Sarah Longwell, an anti-Trump Republican strategist. Ms. Longwell, who hosts a podcast about Republican voters called “The Focus Group,” said a significant portion of primary voters wanted to move forward with Mr. Trump.
But according to Unpleasant bearinga majority of Republican voters do not believe that Mr. Trump really lost in 2020. “Every politician on their team, everyone they know and all the media they consume are all telling them the election was stolen,” Ms Longwell said.
Mr. Christie, Mr. Trump’s most critical 2024 hopeful, recently attacked the former president, calling him “a kid” for denying the 2020 election results and cowardly for suggesting he could dodge Republican debates.
But as Mr. Christie tested the electoral waters during visits to New Hampshire over the past two months, including at the same university where Mr. Trump’s town hall was held on Wednesday, his crowd seemed to lean toward independents and even Democrats, including those who knew him. as the House Conservative on ABC News.
One element that may factor into Mr. Christie’s calculation: next year’s New Hampshire primary could favor an anti-Trump Republican because of an influx of independent voters. Because the Democrats chose South Carolina as their first nominee state — and because President Biden must not appear on the New Hampshire ballot or campaign in the state — up to 100,000 independents are expected to vote in the Republican race, where they can tip the results.
“Independents are open to voting for a Republican candidate,” said Matt Mowers, who was the state director of Christie’s New Hampshire in 2016, “but they are not open to voting for a crazy Republican.”