Retaking land occupied by an enemy during war is a relentlessly difficult task. But an army that tries to do that usually has one big advantage: surprise. The occupier does not know when and where the attackers will strike.
In 1944, the US and its allies cheated the Nazis by believing that an invasion of France would take place on a different part of the Atlantic coast than it did. Today, Ukraine similarly hopes to surprise Russia with the launch of a spring or summer counter-offensive. The Russians know that a major attack is coming, but not the form it will take.
The outcome of that counter-offensive could determine the outcome of the war. A successful campaign by Ukraine to retake territory that Russia now controls could send President Vladimir Putin fearing outright defeat and seeking a face-saving peace deal. A failed counter-offensive could leave Ukraine’s Western allies wondering if the war can be won and potentially push Ukraine toward an unfavorable ceasefire.
In today’s newsletter I provide a preview of the coming phase of the war, with the help of colleagues. The counter-offensive could begin at any time in the coming weeks.
The Land Bridge
The so-called land bridge that Russia built in southeastern Ukraine is probably the focus:
The southern edge of the land bridge is the Crimean peninsula, which was invaded and taken by Russian forces almost a decade ago. Since the start of the larger war last year, Putin has also taken control of the area connecting Crimea to Russia, including the port city of Mariupol and much of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. “The Ukrainians want to break the land bridge,” Julian Barnes, who covers intelligence in Washington, told me.
The territory Russia controls gives it several strategic advantages. First, Ukraine is cut off from about half of its coastline. Second, the territory includes a nuclear power plant near the city of Zaporizhzhia, a major producer of electricity.
Three, and perhaps most important, is that Russia can more easily supply its troops in Crimea. The land bridge is one of two routes for Russian military supplies to Crimea and cities in southern Ukraine, according to Andrew Kramer, chief of the Kiev bureau of The Times. (The other is the Kerch Strait.)
Pierce
Experts have likened the last few months of the war to World War I, with both sides digging in trenches and neither making much progress. Russia lost tens of thousands of troops this year alone to conquer Bakhmuta marginal city in the Donbas.
Ukraine hopes its counter-offensive will break this stalemate. Western allies have supplied the Ukrainian army with billions of dollars worth of equipment in recent months and trained its troops in camps in Germany. The troops have learned a technique known as combined warfare, in which different parts of the military work together to take territory. Tanks smash through enemy lines by rolling over trenches, for example, and infantry then scatter to hold the area.
“The counter-offensive will very likely start in several places, perhaps in the south and east,” Julian said. “Some of them will be feints. Some will be part of the main efforts.”
Ukraine still has fewer troops and less equipment than Russia, but Ukraine’s military has so far proved more effective – with better morale, smarter tactics and more advanced Western weaponry – than Russia’s. The counter-offensive is, in effect, a bet that Ukraine can use those advantages not only to repel Russia, but also to recapture large areas.
As Thomas Gibbons-Neff, a correspondent for Ukraine, said: “If Ukraine succeeds in breaking the land bridge, Russian forces will come under even more pressure and, more importantly, Ukraine will be in a better position to continue attack to the east and south, towards Crimea. .”
Most experts don’t believe Ukraine will recapture Crimea any time soon — or that this war will end with Crimea back under Ukrainian control. Yet Ukraine does not need that outcome to make the counteroffensive a success. Any major progress could lead Putin and his aides to worry that a long war will bring further losses and ultimately endanger Crimea. “The Russian people care about Crimea,” said my colleague Helene Cooper. Before the Soviet era, the region was part of Russia for several decades.
In the favorable scenario for Ukraine, a peace deal in which Russia is expelled everywhere except Crimea and parts of the Donbas region would become plausible. On the other hand, a failed counter-offensive and an unbroken land bridge would give Putin a major psychological victory and a foundation from which to launch future attacks.
An important factor is that Ukraine now has enough weapons for just one major attack. If the Ukrainians have not made progress by autumn, when colder and wetter weather makes battle more difficult, the Russian land bridge could begin to look impregnable.
However, as Helene points out, Ukraine has often exceeded expectations in this war. Even Bakhmut’s fall, while a disappointment, took months longer than analysts expected. In the coming months, Ukraine’s military will attempt to complete what is perhaps its most difficult task since repelling Russia’s initial invasion.
For more
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Blockbuster season
The summer movie season starts next week. Among the films that have thrilled The Times critics:
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