Australian federal election 2025 LIVE results and exit polls: ABC election guru Antony Green announces a ‘big swing is happening’ in key state – as major party faces a total wipeout

Liberal insider to me just now: ‘It’s grim, Houston we have a problem!’

He says their scrutineers are as glum as the early figures look bad for the Coalition.

Labor has shown an early lead in Tasmania, Daily Mail Australia political editor Peter van Onselen says.

‘Something interesting is going on in Tasmania in the early counting.It’s early but Labor is tracking well in both Bass and Braddon,’ van Onselen said.

‘If the Liberals lost both seats any chance of winning can be officially ruled out. It would also mean no Liberal held seats in Tasmania.

‘In both 1993 and 2004 early results out of Tasmania quashed opposition attempts to win government. It happened to John Hewson’s Liberals in 1993 and Mark Latham’s Labor Party in 2004.

‘Could history be repeating itself this year for Dutton’s opposition? Maybe, but it’s early and I keep reminding readers that when pre-poll votes land later they will favour the Liberals. But swings to Labor in Tasmania are a concern for Liberals if the early results become a pattern’

The ABC’s Antony Green also pointed out ‘big swings’ toward Labor in Tasmania during the early vote count.

‘There is only five (Tasmanian) electorates and one of them is rock solid and if you look at the change in vote that is occurring there, a big swing to (Labor) and a big swing against the LNP,’ he said.

‘All of the electorates are showing a significant swing so it’s not just one or two polling places, there is something else going on there.’

Green added that ‘only time will tell if these figures are indicative’.

With five percent of the national vote counted the worry for the Coalition is its primary vote. It is falling behind Labor’s.

If that trend continues Peter Dutton is in trouble and I don’t just mean his bid to become PM.

That includes holding onto the Opposition Leadership, perhaps even his own seat.

And to be self-deprecating my predictions of a minority government would also go out the window!

Pre-poll is starting to look like the only thing that can save the Coalition from a disaster.

Nine’s former star political reporter Laurie Oakes isn’t watching his former network’s election night coverage…

No, he’s tuned into the ABC – and he’s not happy.

Oakes has blasted the public broadcaster on social media, insisting the ABC’s chief political correspondent, Laura Tingle, should be playing a more central role in the channel’s election coverage.

‘The ABC has shoved Laura Tingle so far from the centre of its election panel that she is almost out of sight in the wings.

ABC’s veteran political journalist Annabel Crabb has confused viewers on election night over her choice of tie.

During the evening’s coverage of ‘Australia Votes’, Crabb joined a panel of pundits as the polling centres closed along the east coast.

But some viewers were less concerned with exit poll results, taking to social media to comment on the journalist’s choice of attire, namely her strange tie.

‘What’s going on with Annabel Crabb’s tie? Is it made of leather?’ someone asked on X, zooming in on the item of clothing.

One viewer compared the offending garment to an ‘ox tongue’ while another joked: ‘Must be very cold in the ABC studios. Annabel Crabb is forced to wear a hot water bottle across her chest.’

With less than half a per cent of the national vote counted, and none in WA, Labor and the Coalition’s primary votes are neck and neck, with the Greens just above 12 per cent.

It’s too early to make assumptions, but if that result does pan out it is bad news for the Coalition because it’s primary votes will need to be higher than Labor’s to be competitive on the two party vote after preferences.

That was the case in our Ipsos poll that had Labor ahead 51-49 percent after preferences.

If it isn’t replicated tonight, Labor will certainly win as a minority government and majority government can’t be ruled out.

BUT remember pre-polls aren’t in yet and they will favour the Coalition.

One final observation, remembering it is very early: Dan Tehan is looking okay in early results in Wannon where he is under threat from a teal independent.

But being a regional seat, booth by booth results can be lumpy.

Anthony Albanese’s triumphant return to the Lodge is all but secured, at least according to the bookies.

SportsBet are offering odds of just $1.02 for Labor to ‘supply’ the nation’s next prime minister following the election, meaning for every dollar wagered, gamblers have the chance of picking up just a two-cent win.

In comparison, the Coalition was marked at $12.50 to supply the next prime minister, ostensibly in Peter Dutton, but drifted out to $21 shortly before 8pm, while any other result was paying $151.

That’s the worst odds since the election was called.

Of course, as sports fans know only too well, there’s no such thing as a sure bet.

The first seats of the nights have been called.

Bob Katter has retained his outback Queensland seat of Kennedy, while the LNP’s Colin Boyce has held on in central Queensland’s Flynn.

Meanwhile, Labor’s Matt Thistlethwaite has also held on to the safe south-east Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith.

Senior Coalition figures have already scheduled meetings for Sunday morning to discuss who might replace Dutton in the event of a poor result.

Frontbencher Jane Hume, seen as a potential future deputy leader, contacted colleagues on Friday asking for meetings on the morning after election night, according to The Sydney Morning Herald.

Several sources confirmed Ms Hume’s move and said the purpose of the meetings was likely to discuss the party’s future leadership.

One Coalition MP, who remained nameless, said Dutton would need to gain at least five to 10 seats to remain leader.

The Coalition’s campaign spokesman, Senator James Paterson, has appeared on the ABC and immediately started to contextualise an expected loss this evening for the Opposition.

Senator Paterson has pointed out that history is against the Coalition winning, with nearly 100 years having passed since the last time a first term opposition won its way back into government.

He also pointed out that when Tony Abbott contested his first election as leader in 2010 he picked up seven seats from Labor – a clear marker the Coalition must think Peter Dutton can also achieve, or it wouldn’t have been mentioned.

Remembering that given another three years Abbott went on to win the 2013 election.

Another comparison that might emerge this evening between 2010 and this year’s election is the Coalition’s bid to reduce the Labor Party to a minority government.

Karl Stefanovic believes Peter Dutton will be rolled as the leader of the Opposition if he fails to secure an upset victory in the federal election tonight.

Speaking from the W Hotel in Brisbane’s inner-city this evening, Stefanovic said Dutton would need a miracle to win when the votes were counted tonight – and that his entire political career was at stake.

‘It’s certainly the calm before the storm here at Liberal party headquarters in Brisbane,’ he said

‘Peter arrived a short time ago with his entire family straight upstairs, where they’ll watch those all-important numbers come in.

‘It is a huge mountain to climb and he left no stone unturned during this five-week campaign, crisscrossing the nation from end to end, doing something in the order of 60,000km to try and secure every possible vote.

‘But it is a massive mountain for him to climb, there is no doubt about that.’

Stefanovic said that Dutton would ‘need a miracle of 2019 magnitude’ when then Liberal Prime Minister Scott Morrison pulled off an upset victory against Labor leader Bill Shorten.

‘That’s exactly what they’ll need, if not more,’ Stefanovic said.

‘You have the feeling, though, if things don’t go his way, it may not just be the leadership of the country that is up for grabs tonight, but possibly leadership of the Coalition.

‘Let’s see how things pan out.’

All the polls make it clear the Labor Party are likely to win this election, either as a minority government or perhaps with a narrow majority.

We’ll likely have to wait a while until we know one way or the other.

If Labor do form majority government it is hard to imagine Dutton surviving as leader, assuming he holds onto his Brisbane seat. I say that because a win by Labor with a majority probably means a tight shave in Dickson, one Dutton may not even survive.

There are question marks over who would replace him, with no standout candidates. Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor is one option. Deputy Liberal leader Sussan Ley another. Or perhaps generational change to someone like shadow defence minister Andrew Hastie is a possibility.

But if Labor gets back with a majority you would have to assume someone will come after Dutton’s job, even if he doesn’t pull the pin of his own accord.

But if Labor falls into minority, it is a very different story.

A narrow minority, say Labor winning 74 or 75 seats in the 150-seat chamber, could still see ambition to lead by others cause leadership tensions inside the Liberal Party after this election result is known.

But you would expect Dutton to fight to keep his job if he can lay claim to taking away Labor’s majority, even if only just.

If Labor’s share of seats falls further than 74, Dutton likely keeps his job unchallenged.

If Labor’s share of seats somehow falls even further, into the high 60s, it would still be more likely to form government as a minority administration, but that would take days or weeks to materialise.

Were that to happen it wouldn’t be Dutton under leadership pressure, it would be Anthony Albanese. He’d be luck to stay PM for more than six or 12 months.

That could even be the case of Labor’s share dropped to 70 or 71 seats. Why?

Because after what looked like a strong campaign supported by good polls and personal numbers, to only win like that would be regarded as failure at the end. After expectations rose to a point where such a victory became pyrrhic.

Polls have now also closed in South Australia and the Northern Territory.

Only polls in WA are still open.

Not for the first time, Anthony Albanese has been ridiculed for his handwriting.

The PM shared an image (pictured below) on Saturday of a hand-scrawled note outlining his key election pledges.

‘Lower taxes, stronger Medicare, 20% off student debt, free TAFE and 5% deposits for first home buyers,’ the PM wrote.’

But his, er, rather unusual cursive was immediately criticised online.

‘My six-year-old grandson has better handwriting,’ wrote one.

Daily Mail Australia previously examined what Albo’s hand writing says about him.

And it makes for interesting reading…

The early numbers are starting to come in now but they are utterly meaningless.

Single early booths, less than a fraction of a percent of the vote are isolated and unless when trying to watch for trends.

They really mean nothing.

Give it another 30 minutes to an hour and we will see what the VERY early state of play tells us.

Queensland senator James McGrath claims he doesn’t think Australia will know who the PM is tonight.

‘I think when everybody goes to bed too many seats will be too close to call,’ he told the ABC.

‘There is a high soft vote out there still and there are a number of unique and different contests across the country.’

It echoes comments made by Peter Dutton who said there was a large number of ‘quiet Australians’ who would be backing the Coalition.

But even Senator McGrath thinks the path to power for the Coalition has narrowed to a ‘goat track’.

‘There is a very narrow pathway – it is a goat track, there are lots of billy goats on it and lots of rock slides, but we’re not going to know tonight, I don’t think,’ he added.

This election is going to be unique. Results might still be up in the air when the AEC stops counting and we all go to bed.

That’s because of the unusually low major party primary votes and the fact there are so many minor parties and independents whose preferences will be influential in tight contests.

While it may be obvious Labor will win, somehow, because its share of seats is well above that of the Coalition, don’t be surprised if analysts are loathe to call close seats until very late or in the days to come.

Pre-poll votes get counted tonight, but there are more than seven million of them and they get added after 9pm.

Only after all the first preference votes have been counted do AEC officials start counting preferences.

Predictive models will make assumptions around preference flows, but much of what you see in telecasts will be predictive rather than actual preferences.

They could be wrong and need to get adjusted as the evening pans out. If the models make incorrect assumptions, seats that look like going one way could wildly swing when the real numbers are included.

Even if everything goes well, there is a good chance the winner – likely Albo – won’t be able to claim a victory with certainty when he takes to the stage. Unless he waits until very late, or only claims the win as a minority government, perhaps saying he has to wait for the count to finish before knowing he has a majority.

Which of course may never happen.

As for Dutton, with pre-poll votes coming in late and many more postal votes to come in the days ahead, if he does better than expected he may not want to concede this evening. Or at least wait until late before doing so.

With such low major party primary votes expected and so many crossbenchers trying to win their current seats, alongside new entrants hoping to win, it could be a long evening even if we get a hunch of what’s on the cards very early.

The first official exit poll is indicating that Labor is on track for another three years in office.

An exit poll of nearly 3,700 voters at 19 electorates across Australia, carried out by NewsCorp, showed Labor and the Coalition were matched on the primary vote with 32 per cent.

But independents and Greens’ preferences could push it in Labor’s favour in some keys seats.

The exit polls indicates a 2.2 per cent swing to Labor, while the Coalition looks as if it perform even worse than it did in 2022.

It sometimes feels like the major parties, especially Labor, over inflate their chances of overrunning Greens MPs, but it just might happen at this election.

Three years’ ago the Greens picked up three seats in Queensland of all places, new MPs joining leader Adam Bandt (pictured, below) in the House of Representatives.

Usually the power base for the Greens is in the senate where it hopes to hold the balance of power.

At this election the minor party hopes to have power in the lower house, if Labor drops to a minority government as expected.

But the major parties are coming after the Greens at this year’s election, and both the Liberals and Labor think they are a chance to snatch back at least some of the seats they lost three years ago.

Labor has high hopes of picking up Griffith in Brisbane, maybe even the CBD seat of Brisbane too, but that could be more difficult.

The Liberals want Ryan back, normally a safe seat for them. It’s a 50-50 proposition at best.

But the Greens aren’t sitting back merely hoping to retain their four lower house seats. They are going after Labor in the NSW north coast seat of Richmond where Labor strategists worry their MP could be in some bother.

Greens are also targeting Labor MP Josh Burns in his inner Melbourne seat, but I suspect Burns will hang on.

While the minor party is in the mix in lower house contests, it’s how it performs in the senate that will have the biggest impact on the next parliament.

A Green Senator is up for re-election in every state, and the odds are based on how the minor party is polling it will win a seat in every contest.

That will maintain its influence as the biggest balance of power minor party in the upper house. Meaning the Greens will often hold sway over policy decision making whenever Labor and the Coalition disagree.

No matter which major party wins this federal election.

The first exit poll has been published – and it’s not looking good for the Coalition.

The Liberal Party is at risk of losing the blue-ribbon South Australian electorate of Sturt, according to NCA Newswire.

Liberal incumbent James Stevens secured almost 38 per cent of the primary vote in the poll which asked 193 voters across three booths how they marked their first reference vote.

Meanwhile, Labor challenger Claire Clutterham secured 71 votes, or almost 37 per cent of the vote.

But Stevens’ first reference vote share fell five points from his 2022 performance, meaning his seat could be at risk.

He holds the seat with a tight 0.5 per cent margin.

Polls are now officially closed on the east coast of Australia.

A One Nation voter has revealed what he thinks of Albanese – and it’s just what you’d expect.

‘I voted for One Nation – that’s probably the best party,’ the young male voter told Sky News earlier.

‘I’m sick of Albanese and Dutton. Dutton’s better but Albanese is just a f**kwit.’

The blunt-talking voter was praised by Pauline Hanson.

‘One Nation: We’ve got the guts to say what you’re thinking,’ Senator Hanson wrote on X.

Adam Bandt thought he was posing for a simple ‘happy birthday’ video selfie.

But the Greens leader was caught out by the man behind the camera who criticised the left-wing party’s stance on Israel.

‘Let’s say together: I’ve demonised the Jewish community for my own political gain,’ the man said, as Bandt quickly lurched away.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has described the Greens as an ‘antisemitic, Jew-hating party’.

Votes will start to be counted on the east coast after 6pm, two hours later WA will join the party.

So what are the seats to watch this evening? Daily Mail Australia’s political editor Peter van Onselen has crunched the numbers, hit the phones to talk to candidates and party officials, and come up with the following as his assessment of the state of play seat-by-seat in the battlegrounds that matter.

Use this as your yardstick throughout the evening for how the election is unfolding, and we will circle back to these seats as the results come in. As well as any others we might have missed, but that’s unlikely.

Labor held seats at risk from the Coalition:

I think in descending order these are the Labor held seats most at risk of falling to the Liberals, with their margins in brackets.

Gilmore in NSW (0.2 percent)

Aston in Melbourne (3.6 percent)

Bullwinkel in Perth (3.3 percent)

Paterson in NSW (2.6 percent)

Werriwa in Sydney (5.3 percent)

After these five it becomes more difficult for the Liberals to pick up further Labor seats, but I still have them as the narrow favourites in three more, but all three are very close:

Lingiari in the NT (1.7 percent)

Hawke in Victoria (7.6 percent)

McEwen in Victoria (3.8 percent)

After that I can see three 50-50 toss of the coin seats the Coalition are fighting to claim:

Bennelong in Sydney (0.04 percent)

Tangney in Perth (2.8 percent)

Bendigo in regional Victoria (11.2 percent)

Beyond the above there are nine more seats Labor holds that the Australian electoral commission classifies as marginal, but I don’t see Labor losing any of them except maybe Blair but even then I think they’ll just miss out.

Lyons in Tassie (0.9 percent)

Robertson in NSW (2.2 percent)

Boothby in Adelaide (3.3 percent)

Chisholm in Melbourne (3.3 percent)

Parramatta in Sydney (3.7 percent)

Hunter in NSW (4.8 percent)

Reid in Sydney (5.2 percent)

Blair in Queensland (5.2 percent)

Bruce in Melbourne (5.3 percent)

Finally, a few roughies that aren’t even marginal Labor seats to keep your eyes on where big swings might go the Liberal Party’s way, but not by enough to win, unless something extraordinary happens which you never know in one or two of them.

Labor has its eyes on a number of Liberal held seats it hopes to win.

The ones I think they are a chance of picking up (in order) in are:

They should win some of these. If they pick up more than two or three, majority governnent for Labor is well and truly on the cards.

Beyond the above showdowns between the major parties, watch out for the following contests:

Labor might get Fowler back off the independent who won it at the last election.

Labor might get Griffith back from the Greens, perhaps even Brisbane too.

But Labor is at risk of losing Richmond on the NSW north coast to the Greens.

The Nationals might lose Cowper to an independent. And Liberals are trying to stave off an independent in Wannon and a Teal in Bradfield.

The Liberals hope to win against teals in Curtin, Kooyong and Goldstein. They want win all three, but that’s the order of likelihood in my view. They might not win any of them.

Liberals will also reclaim the seats of Moore in WA, Monash in Victoria and Calare in NSW. Sitting Coalition MPs in all three seats were elected three years ago but defected to the crossbench. All three are running against their old parties as independents this time around but I expect them all to lose.

So that’s the snapshot of what to watch out for this evening. Also, pre-poll votes – there were more than seven million of them – and they won’t get added to the count until after 9pm at the earliest. I would expect them to favour the Coalition, because they usually do. So don’t assume results are set in stone until we see what those numbers do, especially in very close seats.