Can Michigan Beat Texas? Big House Showdown Could Have Major Impact on College Football Playoff

ANN ARBOR, Mich. — Texas and Michigan have met only once, a matchup known as Vince Young’s second most famous Rose bowl performance.

Michigan fans are haunted by memories of the Texas quarterback weaving through the Wolverines’ defense for 192 rushing yards and four touchdowns in the 2005 Rose Bowl, a 38-37 thriller that the Longhorns won on a final-second field goal. Young returned to that end zone the following season in Pasadena for an iconic touchdown run that lifted Texas over USC and earned Mack Brown its only national championship.

In the years that followed, Michigan and Texas became emblematic of blue-blood programs that had lost their way. The Longhorns rotated Charlie Strong and Tom Herman before hiring Steve Sarkisian. Michigan rotated Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke before hiring Jim Harbaugh. After a long climb, the programs nearly met at the mountaintop last season, when Texas came within a play of beating Washington in the Sugar Bowl and facing Michigan in the championship game of the College Football Playoff.

On Saturday, the No. 3 Longhorns and No. 10 Wolverines meet in the first installment of a home-and-away series originally scheduled to go down in 2014. In a fitting sign of the times, the location of Saturday’s game was moved from Austin to Ann Arbor as part of exit negotiations when Texas and Oklahoma left the Big 12 for the SEC, allowing Fox to air the game in its extended afternoon slot. Now, Michigan’s 23-game home winning streak is on the line.

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What happens Saturday will set the stage for CFP races in the Big Ten and SEC. A win over the Wolverines would cement Texas as a CFP favorite, while an upset by the Longhorns would give Michigan a huge boost in its quest for a fourth consecutive CFP appearance. Postseason implications aside, the spectacle of two storied programs meeting in Michigan Stadium will be one of the highlights of the September college football schedule.

“There’s going to be a lot of people here, all the TV crews,” Michigan cornerback Will Johnson said. “It’s going to be like Rose Bowls, Ohio State games, those types of games. I think we’re going to play our best football.”

Texas won its only meeting with Michigan in the 2005 Rose Bowl. (Donald Miralle/Getty Images)

Three matches to keep an eye on

Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant against the Texas offensive line. Texas has one of the best offensive lines in college football, led by left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr., a first-team all-time pick The Athletics‘s preseason All-America team. Michigan has two of the best interior linemen in the country in Graham and Grant. Both players will be asked to play more snaps this season, and their ability to hold their own in the fourth quarter will be crucial.

Colston Loveland vs. the Texas defense. Loveland was the top target for Michigan’s new quarterback, Davis Warren, against Fresno State, with eight receptions for 87 yards and a touchdown. Michigan’s wide receivers didn’t put anything on film against Fresno State that would scare opposing defenses, meaning it could be up to Loveland to find open space against a defense that’s ready for the ball to come his way.

Wink Martindale vs. Steve Sarkisian. Football nerds will love the play within the play as these two play callers try to outsmart each other. Martindale, a veteran NFL defensive coordinator in his first season at Michigan, has plenty of ways to disrupt an offense. Sarkisian, one of the best offense minds in college football, has plenty of ways to keep a defense on its heels. Expect both to have something in the bag to keep the other guessing.

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What we will talk about after the match

We’re going to talk about Michigan’s quarterbacks, of course. There’s also a good chance we’ll talk about Donovan Edwards, who has a history of appearing in big games.

As evidence of this, here are Edwards’ splits from the past two years in matches with Top 25 opponents and matches against unranked opponents:

Edwards’ performance in the CFP championship game raised expectations for his senior season and helped land him on the cover of EA College Football 25 alongside Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers and Colorado’s Travis Hunter. But his performance against Fresno State resembled some of his early games last season, as Edwards struggled to find running lanes and finished with 27 yards on 11 carries.

Earlier this week, running backs coach Tony Alford said some of the same things we heard when Edwards struggled last season. Alford mentioned the importance of taking the yards you can get instead of trying to hit a home run on every carry and said he talked to Edwards after the game about keeping a positive attitude when the long runs aren’t happening.

“Frustration? Absolutely. We all get frustrated sometimes,” Alford said. “You still have a responsibility to lead in a positive way and keep going because people are going to be looking at you. How do you respond when things aren’t going as well as you personally would like? We’ve talked about that and I’m very happy and pleased with the way he’s responded to that.”

Edwards didn’t really hit his stride last season until Michigan played Penn State in November, which happened to be Michigan’s first game of the season against a ranked opponent. Perhaps Edwards needs a top-five opponent in Week 2 to get off to a better start.

“Nobody in this building is worried about Donovan Edwards and what’s coming for him,” Alford said. “He’s going to be just fine.”

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3 questions with …

…Sam Khan jr., The Athletics‘s Texpert:

1. These teams were very close in last year’s CFP championship game. We know Michigan is a much different team than last year, but what about Texas? What’s the same and what’s different about the Longhorns?

There has been change, but also a significant amount of carryover from Texas’ 2023 roster to 2024. Steve Sarkisian noted that there are 46 players who traveled to last year’s Week 2 win at Alabama who will be making the trip. That’s more than half the traveling roster. And many of them are at key positions such as quarterback (Quinn Ewers), offensive line (four of the five starters return, and all five of this year’s starters traveled to Tuscaloosa last year), linebacker (super sophomores Anthony Hill and David Gbenda) and several players in the secondary, including their best player there, Jahdae Barron.

But there’s a lot that’s new. The entire offensive skill set is new. Starting receivers, running back Jonathon Brooks and tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders are all in the NFL. So are the dynamic duo of defensive tackles T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy, who set the tone for Texas’ defense in 2023. Their star corner from last year, Ryan Watts, is also in the league. Replacing all of those players was a big part of the offseason, whether it was done through the transfer portal (the receivers) or by developing returning players for their bigger roles (the defensive line).

Even with those changes, there’s one thing that’s helped Texas’ continuity: its coaching staff. The Longhorns have the same offensive, defensive and special teams coordinators that Sarkisian originally hired in 2021. There have been a few position coaching changes, including two this offseason, but the stability of the staff and the consistency of the scheme have been crucial in keeping Texas from taking any steps backward.

2. Put yourself in the shoes of Michigan OC Kirk Campbell. How would you try to attack this Texas defense with a new starting quarterback and a new offensive line?

Don’t be afraid of the Texas defensive front. Go right in and let that unit prove it can stop the run game. Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton, the guys who replaced Sweat and Murphy, are good, experienced players, but they’re not as dominant as their predecessors — at least not yet. Michigan’s identity is its power run game. Keep doing that until you have to adapt.

Colorado State didn’t go all out against the Longhorns last week, but the Rams did find some success as Justin Marshall finished with 106 yards and an average of 4.2 yards per carry. Because this Texas offense is so explosive, if I were Campbell, I’d try to control the clock and minimize possessions. Go for it and lean on your big men to win at the line of scrimmage.

3. What does Michigan need to do defensively to slow down Texas’ offense?

Keeping everything in front of them, which is easier said than done. Texas has a lot of speed on the perimeter. Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden, Johntay Cook II and freshman Ryan Wingo are all explosive receivers who can go far. Not getting beat up and minimizing big plays will be key. That will start on the front line, containing Texas’ run game.

Sarkisian likes to build on the run with the play-action passing game, and the more success the Longhorns have in the run game, the more dangerous they are on shot plays down the field. If Michigan can shut down Jaydon Blue, Quintrevion Wisner and Jerrick Gibson early, the Wolverines will be less susceptible to Sarkisian’s attempts to stretch the field.

Consequences for the GVB

The Athletics‘s model gives Texas an 80 percent chance of making the CFP and Michigan a 25 percent chance after Week 1 results. According to Austin Mock, a Texas win would boost the Longhorns’ chances to 88.2 percent and give them room to survive a loss to Oklahoma or Georgia in October. Losing to Michigan wouldn’t be devastating to Texas’ CFP chances, as the model still gives the Longhorns a 63 percent chance of earning a bid, but they would have less margin for error in the SEC.

Michigan’s CFP odds would rise to 41.1 percent with a win and drop to 14 percent with a loss. The Wolverines have three other games against teams currently ranked in the Top 25: No. 13 USC on Sept. 21, No. 7 Oregon on Nov. 2 and No. 2 Ohio State on Nov. 30. An early loss doesn’t eliminate anyone in the 12-team Playoff era, but Michigan would need to win at least one of those games to have a chance.

Prediction

Texas 24, Michigan 17Astute readers will notice that just a week ago I predicted Michigan would beat Texas and finish 10-2. Now I turn around and root for the Longhorns. What’s going on?

Well… we finally got to see Michigan’s offense on the field instead of hearing about it secondhand. A good rule of thumb is to take every positive preseason report and discount it by about 50 percent. I did that, but I still may have underestimated how difficult it would be for Michigan to replace its departed stars on offense.

Even with the increased competition, I expect Michigan’s offense to look more dynamic against Texas. Sherrone Moore knows how to set up a run game that’s a headache for the other team to defend. But Michigan’s opener raised too many questions to answer in one week, and Texas is talented enough to exploit Michigan’s offensive limitations.

(Top photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)