College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: Could Colorado’s Deion Sanders sneak onto the field?

On Saturday, with Deion Sanders and Colorado stuck at home and Travis Hunter on a Heisman Trophy media tour of national pregame shows, the Buffaloes were among the biggest winners in the College Football Playoff race.

Iowa State lost at home to Texas Tech, cutting the list of undefeated Big 12 teams to just one. Not long after, Kansas State stumbled in Houston, suffering its second Big 12 loss and falling behind the Buffaloes in the conference standings after beating Colorado last month.

Now Colorado, which won one conference game a season ago and trailed 28-0 at halftime against Nebraska in Week 2, has a real path to the Playoff. Here’s the thing about the current version of the Playoff: Every conference race has relevance. And the Buffaloes are in the thick of the Big 12 race.

Two weeks ago, six teams in the league had one or fewer conference losses. After the inevitable chaos arrived at the most overt power conference, only three remain. And one of them is Colorado.

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BYU is the Big 12’s only remaining undefeated team and the Buffaloes are now tied with Iowa State for second place. The Buffaloes travel to Texas Tech this weekend and close out the season with games against three teams that are in the bottom four of the conference. Neither BYU nor Iowa State will face Colorado.

Iowa State still has Kansas State and Cincinnati, two teams in the top half of the conference. BYU still has a good chance to finish 12-0, but travels to rival Utah and Arizona State and hosts improving Kansas and Houston.

Colorado wide receiver-defensive back Travis Hunter is one of the favorites in the Heisman Trophy race. (Ron Chenoy / Image Images)

All Colorado needs to control its Playoff destiny is one loss at Iowa State. If the country does not achieve this, it can still qualify for the Big 12 Championship Game via tiebreakers. (Remark: How the tiebreakers are applied will likely depend on whether BYU loses and, if so, who loses.)

At that point, Sanders and the Buffs would be 60 minutes away from the Playoff.

It’s a new world of college football, and no power conference team can be counted out before the heart of conference play arrives. Colorado is living proof of that.

Each week, Bubble Watch examines who’s in, who’s out and who’s somewhere in the middle, leading up to the first 12-team College Football Playoff. It’s a realistic snapshot of the field, not a projection. The top five ranked conference champions will automatically receive a Playoff berth. Find the bracket projections of Austin Mock’s model here.

ACC

Clemson’s ugly home loss to Louisville dealt a huge blow to the ACC’s chances of placing two teams in the race.

But it does eliminate the possibility of an ugly tiebreaker scenario between three teams that are undefeated in conference play. Clemson does not have a win that will impact the committee and has two losses. The Tigers will need a lot of help to make an at-large bid if they don’t win the ACC.

SMU has a decent resume, but at 11-1 still may not qualify for an at-large bid if it can’t win the ACC. Miami is the only team in the league with a great opportunity to do this. If chaos erupts in the final month of the season, Pitt and Louisville still threaten to steal an ACC title game spot.

Big Ten

Ohio State’s win over Penn State was a huge win for the Big Ten. The chances of getting three teams into the Playoff seem almost certain, and four are well within reach. Indiana remains dominant, moving to 9-0 with an average margin of victory of 32.9 points and winning all nine games by at least 14.

An Ohio State loss to Penn State could have potentially turned the Indiana-Ohio State game on Nov. 23 into a Playoff elimination game. Instead, both teams could still have legitimate Playoff hopes with a loss, although it will be a nervous Selection Sunday if the loser doesn’t play for the title in Indianapolis.

One of the league’s top four teams might be very sad to see a drop in the final rankings, but it’s hard to imagine anyone else in the league clawing their way into legitimate Playoff contention.

Big 12

The losses to Kansas State and Iowa State opened the door for an impossibly sexy Playoff proposition (see above), but it wreaked havoc on the league’s hopes for an at-large bid. Iowa State is the only team in the league with a real chance, but it will have to take the lead and hope that Kansas State keeps winning to win at Iowa State. Farmageddon look as good as possible.

Even then, it may take BYU reaching the Big 12 title game and losing to Iowa State, Colorado or K-State for the league to get more than one team.

SEC

The SEC has five teams with one loss in the conference. Good luck figuring out who makes it to Atlanta. The race for the automatic bid will be unpredictable in the long term.

The four teams “in the mix” have a real chance to force their way into or out of the field during the final month of the season, especially with the ACC and Big 12 coughing up bids on an upset-filled Saturday as Clemson, Iowa State and Kansas State all lost.

Vanderbilt and Missouri are coming off two conference losses, but there are too many teams between them and the top to reasonably reach Atlanta. Plus, both have ugly losses (Georgia State to Vanderbilt, A&M/Alabama to Mizzou) that make an at-large bid seem nearly impossible.

Group of 5

Ashton Jeanty’s Heisman campaign has slowed in recent weeks, but Boise State’s playoff hopes have skyrocketed as the competition has diminished. And if we get a surprise winner in the Big 12 … could the Broncos sneak into the No. 4 seed with the Group 5 automatic bid? It’s possible, but we’ll have a better idea of ​​the odds when the committee releases its first rankings on Tuesday. If Boise State is ranked higher than any Power 4 conference champion on Selection Sunday, it will be seeded No. 4 in the quarterfinals.

Boise State has a chance to avoid a rematch with UNLV if Colorado State continues to win. The Rams are tied at 4-0 at the top of the Mountain West standings and none of the three play each other in the final month of the season, so it could come down to a tiebreaker if Colorado State loses. Army is still a threat in the United States, but doesn’t have the resume strength of Boise State and seems unlikely to make the committee’s Top 25 despite being one of only five remaining undefeated FBS teams.

Marine and Memphis: Thanks for playing. The Midshipmen lost for the second straight week, and Memphis went on the road, giving up 44 points in a loss to UTSA. Those two are removed from the Playoff conversation.

Others

The Irish didn’t need any more help, but they got it from the ACC and Big 12.

Mock’s model gives the Irish an 89 percent chance of making the field, and Notre Dame continues to move up as well. Army will be the toughest game for the Irish, and rival USC continues to decline, dropping to 4-5 with a loss Saturday in Washington.

(Top photo: Christian Petersen/Getty Images)