College Football Playoff Bubble Watch: What upsets like Vanderbilt over Alabama remind us

We do it every year.

Alabama only has four potential losses in its entire schedule! It will be favored in every match for the rest of the season!

Missouri’s entire season comes down to just two games!

Tennessee’s path to the Playoff is now a piece of cake!

And every year, college football reminds us of the folly of making assumptions.

A sport built around the performance of 18 to 22 year olds from week to week will always provide variety, and now the sport is played with rosters that fluctuate widely from season to season and teams flying thousands of miles across the country for conference games.

We learn never to expect the unexpected, and Saturday taught us the final lesson that looking ahead to schedules and assuming victory is always a dangerous exercise.

A week full of games without a huge showdown, like last week’s instant classic Georgia-Alabama, gave way to chaos and unexpected losses. For the first time since November 12, 2016, five teams in the top 11 lost. Four lost to unranked teams, and Miami needed a dramatic 25-point comeback in the second half to avoid being added to either list added.

In a world with a 12-team College Football Playoff, that means all these upsets shake up the field, even if losses like Alabama vs. Vanderbilt and Tennessee vs. Arkansas might not knock them out completely. Sowing is important. The field shifts. More games are important.

Texas A&M destroying Missouri isn’t just playing a spoiler anymore. It’s a team making a case to be included in the Playoff conversation. UNLV losing as a favorite at home to Syracuse isn’t just an entertaining Friday night game: It’s a result that reshapes what the Playoff field will look like when it arrives.

The same goes for Michigan and USC, who went on the road and lost: Both teams went from the edge of the Playoff field to staring down steep climbs to get back into contention.

It’s easy to look ahead to the big games and shrug off weekend plans that look a little sleepy. And then days like Saturday come along and remind us again of the unpredictability of that same Saturday.

I can’t wait to forget everything again and experience another Saturday full of surprises.

Each week, Bubble Watch examines who’s in, who’s out and who’s somewhere in the middle, leading up to the first 12-team College Football Playoff. It’s a realistic snapshot of the field, not a projection. The top five ranked conference champions will automatically receive a Playoff berth. Find the bracket projections of Austin Mock’s model here.

ACC

Clemson’s resurgence means the ACC looks like a league well suited to getting two teams into the Playoff, though Miami experienced more drama in remaining undefeated following a cross-country trip at Cal that started at 10:30 PM ET.

Pitt looms with a much-improved offense and no losses.

Duke fell from the ranks of the undefeated, but Syracuse picked up a big road win at UNLV in overtime and could be in the mix as well.

After a loss to BYU, SMU didn’t look like a team that could be a factor in the ACC race early this season. Now, after a win at Louisville and a string of wins over TCU and Florida State? Look after.

Big Ten

The question remains: Does the Big Ten have a fourth Playoff-caliber team? USC and Michigan showed major shortcomings in road losses at Minnesota and Washington. Will these long road trips introduce more randomness to a sport already full of it?

Indiana, 6-0, has been dominant or solid in every win this season and will face Nebraska, Washington and travel to Michigan State before hosting Michigan on Nov. 9 in its first game against a ranked team. Could Curt Cignetti’s team be 9-0 going into the game?

The Big Ten looks solid at the top — especially Ohio State — but the second tier of the league could be left out if Indiana stumbles or Michigan or USC can’t advance at the end of the season.

Big 12

BYU and Texas Tech are thriving, and the Big 12 making an at-large offer seems like a real possibility.

The Red Raiders are coming off solid wins over Arizona State and Arizona since a 21-point loss at Washington State, and it’s worth noting that Texas Tech didn’t have running back Tahj Brooks in the loss at the Palouse.

Iowa State needed heroics to beat Iowa in Iowa City, but was dominant in the four other wins. Cam Rising’s status still appears uncertain, and Utah’s title hopes depend on his health. While chaos reigned in the SEC and Big Ten, the Big 12’s best teams all won or were silent on Saturday.

SEC

No conference had a bigger shakeup in the pecking order on Saturday than the SEC, after Alabama and Tennessee teamed up to become the first SEC teams in the top five to lose to unranked teams on the same day.

Alabama’s loss opens the SEC title race, with Texas standing alone as the last undefeated SEC team. However, Texas A&M is 3-0 in conference play and alone in first place in the standings, looking like an improved team after its season-opening loss to Notre Dame. LSU is the only other team without a conference loss.

Preseason contenders Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee are already a month ahead of the season. Missouri failed to navigate one of the conference’s easiest schedules and the big loss in Aggieland could be the difference between inclusion and expulsion if the Tigers sit at 10-2 at season’s end without a big win on their resume. The Tigers may have to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa to get on the field.

Ole Miss rocked South Carolina in Columbia and got a big boost from Saturday’s chaos after its own shocking loss to Kentucky a week ago.

Group of 5

Army and Navy have two of their best teams in years and continue to destroy everyone. Navy’s average winning margin is 23.4 points and Navy has a quality win over Memphis. The army’s average margin of victory is 29 points. The US champions will have a great chance to make the field, but the Playoff Committee’s nightmare scenario is clearly present. Army and Navy could play a U.S. title game that decides who goes to the Playoff, followed seven days later by … the Army-Navy game that will have no relevance whatsoever as the Playoff field looms.

Boise State looks like the best Group of 5 team overall and may have the Heisman winner in must-see running back Ashton Jeanty. After the non-conference loss to Syracuse, UNLV can get back into contention by beating Boise later this month and doing so again on Championship Weekend. But for now, the Broncos deserve the driver’s seat.

Others

It was a good week not to play football. Thanks to all the chaos, Notre Dame is moving from “in the mix” to “probably in,” but those odds are very much in the Irish’s favor despite the loss to Northern Illinois. Missouri suffering an unexpected loss – in resounding fashion – was a perfect start to the day for Notre Dame, and it was even better to see Alabama, Tennessee and Michigan fall later. The only problem — and it may be minor — is that USC is also coming off a loss, meaning Notre Dame’s chances of pulling off a big win in the season finale take a hit. Army and Navy look dangerous and could be a quality gainer (or huge stumbler) over the next month or two.

Rising Texas A&M is a huge boost to Notre Dame’s resume.

(Photo of Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer: Carly Mackler/Getty Images)