College Football Playoff Rankings: Alabama, Clemson on the outside looking in as Arizona State rises

Alabama fell to No. 13 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday night and Mississippi fell to No. 14, leaving the SEC with just three teams in the projected field of 12 heading into the final weekend of the regular season.

Oregon, Ohio State, Texas and Penn State remained the top four in the rankings, and Notre Dame moved up to No. 5. Miami (10-1) moved up to No. 6, Georgia (9-2) was No. 7, and Tennessee (9-2) is now number 8, three spots higher than last week.

No. 9 SMU entered the bracket for the first time, giving the ACC two teams in the 12-team pool alongside Miami.

Indiana (10-1) fell five spots to No. 10 after losing to Ohio State, but remained in the expected field.

“Indiana played well at times against Ohio State, and obviously Ohio State pulled away in the second half,” said committee chairman Ward Manuel, who is also Michigan’s athletic director. “We felt like SMU has been playing some really dominant football lately.”

The projected top-four seeds to go to conference champions and get a bye in the first round also remained the same as last week: Oregon (Big Ten), Texas (SEC), Miami (ACC) and No. 11 Boise State (Mountain West) are located in those places.

No. 12 Clemson (9-2), another ACC team, is currently the first team out of the bracket.

Another turbulent week in the Big 12 produced a new top-ranked team in the conference, No. 16 Arizona State (9-2), which defeated BYU last week. The Sun Devils would be the projected No. 12 seed. Next in the Big 12 was No. 18 Iowa State, No. 19 BYU, No. 24 Kansas State and No. 25 Colorado.

Right behind the Sun Devils at No. 17 is Tulane, the highest-ranked team in the American Athletic Conference. The Green Wave has already clinched a spot in the AAC title game against Army, which fell out of the rankings after losing to Notre Dame.

No conference had a wilder week than the SEC, where three ranked teams – Alabama, Ole Miss and Texas A&M – lost to unranked opponents on the road. The Aggies (8-3) fell five spots to No. 20.

The Crimson Tide (8-3) and Rebels (8-3) are the first two SEC teams to leave the field. They all face an unranked rival this weekend and can’t compete to win the SEC Championship. Texas A&M hosts Texas on Saturday, with the winner taking on Georgia in the SEC title game.

The other state rivalry game with playoffs on both sides takes place in South Carolina, where Clemson (9-2) hosts the 15th-ranked Gamecocks (8-3).

Guessing game

Perhaps the most interesting answer Manuel gave during the conference call with reporters this week was about whether the committee will ever discuss which team would win a hypothetical game.

The short answer: No.

“If it starts to creep into the conversation, I make sure we break it off. We don’t project,” Manuel said. ‘We don’t know. As I mentioned earlier, fourteen teams in the Top 25 have lost in the past two weeks. So it’s hard to predict if this team will play that team that will win? If this team plays that team, who will Vegas and the sports book favor? We can’t comment on that because we can only deal with what happens on the playing field. That’s the best and fairest way to judge the teams, by looking at what’s happening on the playing field. We can’t get into projection.”

It just means…less?

When the committee started ranking teams the first week of November, it seemed like the SEC was a lock to get four teams in the field, and that there was a real chance for five playoff teams.

Now, getting past the three will take an upset or two, preferably in the ACC.

“Winning is important to us. We appreciate how the teams play and ultimately the scoreboard matters,” said Manuel.

SMU has secured its spot in the ACC title game and Miami can join the Mustangs with a win this weekend in Syracuse.

If SMU and Miami can each reach the title game in Charlotte, NC with just one loss, the conference appears to be in good shape to both make the Playoff.

If Miami lost this weekend, Clemson would go to the ACC championship game. Whether the Tigers go with two losses and a win against South Carolina or three losses could also help determine whether the SEC can get a fourth team into the bracket.

The Crimson Tide, who have only missed the playoffs twice in a decade when there were only four teams, appear to be the best bet to take advantage of any setbacks. Alabama is ranked higher than Ole Miss and has a win against South Carolina that could help it hold off the Gamecocks.

A wild card for the SEC could be Texas A&M. With the Aggies still in play to win the conference, they could steal bids. Although perhaps the offer the Aggies steal will be from another SEC team, like Tennessee?

G5 pinch

For the second week in a row, the Big 12 is chasing Boise State and beyond a ranking that would secure a first-round bye.

Now the Big 12, which still has nine teams competing to reach the conference title game, also has to be on guard.

With Tulane just one spot behind Arizona State, there’s a chance the AAC champion could grab one of the five bids that go to the conference champions, leaving out the Big 12 altogether. Arizona State and Iowa State are the most likely participants in the championship game.

It may be difficult to catch up to Boise State without the Broncos losing. Their most likely opponent in the Mountain West championship game, UNLV, is ranked No. 22 and has a pair of wins against Big 12 teams Houston and Kansas.

Stopping Tulane doesn’t seem that difficult as long as the Big 12 champion comes from the currently ranked teams.

The Green Wave play Memphis (9-2) on Thanksgiving night, but with Army out of the rankings, they probably won’t be much affected in the AAC title game.

Tulane is also coming off a loss at home to Kansas State in September, which could be an issue when matching resumes with a Big 12 champion.

Required reading

(Photo: Brian Bahr/Getty Images)