College Football Playoff Rankings: Miami out, Alabama in with the latest big bid as ACC implications linger

Alabama moved into position to receive an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff and Miami was left out as the selection committee’s penultimate rankings narrowed the field Tuesday night.

Miami fell six spots to No. 12 behind No. 11 Alabama, which occupies the last overall spot heading into championship weekend. Alabama is in the bracket for the time being, but is not guaranteed a spot. Championship games in the ACC and perhaps even the Mountain West could still cost the Crimson Tide a bid to the first 12-team Playoff.

Selection committee chairman Warde Manuel said the committee will not rerank the teams not playing this weekend, leaving all the teams behind Alabama, including No. 13 Mississippi and No. 14 South Carolina, on the outside looking in.

“Nothing will change for us to judge them differently than we do now,” Manuel said during ESPN’s selection show.

Manuel added during a conference call with reporters that teams that do not play will not be rewarded and punished by the results of this weekend’s matches. For example, a Clemson win won’t boost South Carolina, which defeated the Tigers last week. Conversely, if Georgia were to lose the SEC championship game, it would not be held against Alabama, which defeated the Bulldogs.

“We know who won matches against teams competing in these championships,” Manuel said. “We have already taken that into account in the evaluation this week.”

Warde said Alabama’s 3-1 against currently ranked teams and 6-1 against teams above .500, while Miami is 0-1 and 4-2 respectively in those categories, gave the Crimson Tide the edge.

ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips said the conference was “incredibly shocked and disappointed” by Miami’s fall after the Hurricanes lost 42-38 at No. 22 Syracuse last weekend.

“Miami has more wins and fewer losses than the team directly ahead of them and a dominant win over an SEC team (Florida) whose late-season surge includes wins over No. 13 Ole Miss,” Phillips said.

He also cited that Miami’s losses to Syracuse and Georgia Tech were by a combined nine points and that Georgia Tech just played an eight-overtime game at No. 5 Georgia.

“Miami absolutely deserves better from the commission,” Phillips said.

Last year, the ACC believed it had been burned by committee when undefeated Florida State was bumped out of the four-team CFP by Alabama.

Oregon remained No. 1 in the committee’s penultimate Top 25, followed by No. 2 Texas, No. 3 Penn State, No. 4 Notre Dame and No. 5 Georgia after Ohio State cleared a spot in the top five.

The Buckeyes fell four spots but stayed ahead of No. 7 Tennessee, which is important because it could determine which team hosts a first-round playoff game between the Buckeyes (10-2) and Volunteers (10-2).

No. No. 8 SMU, No. 9 Indiana and No. 10 Boise State all moved up one spot. The Hoosiers (11-1) appear safe. The Mustangs (11-1) still have to play in the ACC championship game against No. 17 Clemson (9-3) on Saturday. The winner must secure a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Clemson is likely out with a loss.

SMU’s overall expectations appear less clear, though ACC commissioner Jim Phillips touted his Mustangs The Athletics earlier this week he said the first-year conference member should be there no matter how things go in Charlotte against Clemson.

“We’re certainly pleased that SMU has moved up in the rankings…,” Phillips said Tuesday evening.

The projected top four seeds from the latest rankings are now: Oregon, Texas, SMU and Boise State.

Oregon (12-0) and Penn State (11-1) meet Saturday in the Big Ten championship with a first-round bye and perhaps the No. 1 overall seed on the line. Texas (11-1) and Georgia (10-2) will face off in the SEC championship game, a rematch of the Bulldogs’ regular-season win in Austin with the winner getting a bye.

The intrigue lies in the ACC.

Clemson would be a bid stealer and come in as conference champions. But whose offer would the Tigers accept? The one from Alabama? Or would SMU fall behind the Crimson Tide in the final rankings and be pushed out, leaving the ACC with just one team in the field and the SEC with four?

No. No. 15 Arizona State (10-2) and No. 16 Iowa State (10-2) will play in the Big 12 championship game, with the winner assured of a spot reserved for the top five ranked conference champions and perhaps a first. round bye depending on the outcome of the Mountain West title game between Boise State (11-1) and No. 20 UNLV (10-2), and whether Clemson wins the ACC.

Miami coach Mario Cristobal was one of several people who publicly engaged in politics for their teams in recent days.

“I think so [SEC] Bias will end.”

Mario Cristobal shares how Miami’s resume compares to others in the CFP rankings 👀 pic.twitter.com/oAdp0LfbNw

— ACC Network (@accnetwork) December 3, 2024

Mississippi coach Lane Kiffin and South Carolina coach Shane Beamer have also filed their cases, as has Alabama athletic director Greg Byrne.

Here’s a good overview of the numbers/rankings for this @AlabamaFTBL. Keep in mind that there is a lot of talk about 2v3 losing teams, but that is just one factor. If you look at the @CFBPlayoff Principles for his selection committee, the first item on the list of… pic.twitter.com/EGrp7pVbaA

— Greg Byrne (@Greg_Byrne) December 3, 2024

Which three questions will be answered this weekend?

If UNLV upsets Boise State, can the Broncos, whose only loss at Oregon comes on a last-second field goal, still secure an at-large bid and turn UNLV into a bid stealer?

How far will the losers of the SEC and Big Ten championship games fall and could that affect who hosts first-round games? The bracket you see now may still have significant movement. A Penn State loss to Oregon could very well send the Nittany Lions tumbling behind Ohio State, which won in Happy Valley. A loss at Georgia would be third for the Bulldogs, but their win against Tennessee could break their fall in the final standings.

Could a Clemson win mean a farewell for the Big 12 champion? It doesn’t look like Iowa State or Arizona State can catch Boise State. An upset of UNLV could pave the way for one of those teams to earn a bye, although it should be noted that the Rebels have two wins against Big 12 teams (Kansas, Houston). But if Clemson upsets SMU, is it possible that the Tigers would be the fifth-highest ranked champions, giving both the Big 12 and Mountain West champions top-four seeds?

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(Photo: Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)