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The college football postseason enters a new era in 2024 with the advent of the 12-team College Football Playoff, featuring automatic bids for the five highest-ranked conference champions plus seven at-large selections. Bracket intrigue will only increase throughout the fall, but one thing is for certain: More teams will have a realistic shot at a national title than ever before.
But how many more? It’s expected that many of the nation’s elite programs will find their way into the top 12 most years, but the expanded field leaves room for some surprises, especially in the first year of a new system. Below, The Athletics‘s college football writers make their picks for this season’s most tantalizing sleeper College Football Playoff teams. Programs that were ranked in the preseason Coaches Poll and topped their league’s preseason media poll were eliminated from consideration.
This might be the Hokies’ best team since Frank Beamer retired. Tech found something in quarterback Kyron Drones, winning five of its last seven games, including a bowl, to close out 2023. Drones threw 17 touchdowns with just three interceptions and rushed for 818 yards last season, sparking a long-dormant offense that features defensive lineman Antwaun Powell-Ryland (14.5 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks) and a loaded secondary returner on the unit that head coach Brent Pry specializes in. The Hokies rank in the top five in the country in return roster production, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Maybe there’s room for a slow-burning sleeper to tuck into the 12-team field. — Kyle Tucker
The Cyclones return nine starters on both offense and defense, including breakout quarterback Rocco Becht, its top four receivers, the defense’s top five tacklers and leading rusher Abu Sama. Iowa State defeated Oklahoma State and Kansas State last year and concludes this season with a trip to Utah and a home game against K-State. — Scott Dochterman
Jeff Brohm led the Cardinals to a 10-win season and an ACC championship game in his first year at the helm, and he has some key pieces in place for what should be a solid defense, including end Ashton Gillotte. Can Texas Tech transfer quarterback Tyler Shough thrive in Brohm’s system? There will be plenty of opportunities to climb the rankings with games against Notre Dame, Clemson and Miami. — Jesse Tempel
Believe in the second-year jump. Louisville has 15 players with at least five starts in 2023 and bolstered that group with a robust transfer portal class. The schedule is also favorable: Louisville plays only two of the top eight teams in the ACC preseason poll (Clemson and Miami), and the road trip to South Bend is a prime opportunity to bolster a playoff résumé. —Kennington Smith III
Don’t we talk and write enough about the Mountaineers? Quarterback Garrett Greene has a chance to compete for the Heisman. Neal Brown’s team has a chance to beat Penn State and make an immediate statement in Week 1. West Virginia has seven home games, which could tip the balance with plenty of showcase opportunities, as Penn State, Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor and UCF all travel to Morgantown. — Audrey Snijder
The Bobcats finished top of the West Division in the Sun Belt preseason poll but still finished behind East-leading Appalachian State in the overall voting, qualifying them as a G5 sleeper. GJ Kinne’s first team went 8-5, including a season-opening road win over Baylor, and Kinne dipped into the transfer portal this offseason for quarterback Jordan McCloud, the reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year for James Madison. The schedule is favorable, too: The Bobcats have winnable but respectable nonconference games at home against Arizona State and UTSA, plus a Sun Belt slate that avoids the East Division’s top five teams based on the preseason poll. — Justin Williams
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UCF
The Knights were the only Big 12 newcomers to reach a bowl game last season, and head coach Gus Malzahn has dramatically improved his roster through the transfer portal, adding 27 new players with 327 college starts between them. Quarterback KJ Jefferson comes over from Arkansas to lead an offense that features two 1,400-yard rushers from a year ago in RJ Harvey and Peny Boone (Toledo transfer). They’ll be scoring big. — Manny Navarro
UNLV
What in the name of Randall Cunningham? (Or Stacey Augmon?) Actually, it’s Barry Odom, who was a very good defensive coordinator at Missouri and a less good head coach there, but who has found his niche out West. UNLV was the second pick in the Mountain West, and the only big question is how it will replace quarterback Jayden Maiava, who transferred to USC (after initially committing to Georgia). That question needs to be resolved quickly, because three early nonconference games will be crucial for any CFP hopes: at Houston, at Kansas, at home against Syracuse. It’ll be tough, but UNLV making the first expanded CFP would be a great story. — Seth Emerson
If the Rebels can figure out how to replace Maiava, they’ll be dangerous. The Rebels reached the Mountain West Championship Game in Odom’s first season, and his team has a ton of talent at quarterback. But we all know how important quarterbacks are in college football. — Daniel Shirley
Call me crazy, but I believe in the Scarlet Knights this year. Greg Schiano has done a great job recruiting in the program’s backyard and brings back a ton of talent from a team that led Ohio State into halftime last season. They get a new quarterback in Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis, and running back Kyle Monangai is one of the top running backs the country doesn’t talk about enough. The schedule also breaks down right into battle: The Scarlet Knights won’t play Penn State, Oregon, Ohio State, Iowa or Michigan this year. — Cameron Teague Robinson
Want to go all out? Let’s go all out. The parameters for this exercise essentially require a team to be in a high-leverage situation, where one or two unexpected twists upend all assumptions. I give you the Badgers, who will face Alabama at home in mid-September — the first time an SEC team has played in Camp Randall Stadium since 1971. Things will be crazy, and the Crimson Tide will be coached by someone other than Nick Saban. Then there’s USC on the road two weeks later. Not insurmountable! And finally, Oregon, at home in mid-November, when the climate can be particularly unfriendly to those unfamiliar with late fall in the Midwest. Even if the Badgers lose one or two of those games, that’s no longer fatal in a 12-team playoff. And Tyler Van Dyke at quarterback is a high-leverage wild card himself. — Brian Hamilton
The Bulls made a big leap forward in Alex Golesh’s first season as head coach, going from 1-11 to 7-6 with a 45-0 bowl win over Syracuse. With star quarterback Byrum Brown back and a defense that can only get better, Tampa is one to keep an eye on. The non-conference schedule is tough with Alabama and Miami, but the conference schedule could be favorable, with USF playing four of the bottom five teams in the AAC preseason poll, plus league-leading Memphis at home. If the Bulls get through their first five games 3-2, watch for a late run. — Chris Vannini
SMU
The ACC race feels like a bit of a wild card, so why not pick the conference’s newcomer to make waves in Year 1? Last year’s Mustangs ranked No. 8 in the FBS in scoring offense en route to an 11-3 record and an AAC championship. Quarterback Preston Stone returns after throwing for 3,197 yards (26th in the FBS) and 28 touchdowns (11th) with a passing efficiency rating of 161.3 (13th) as a redshirt sophomore. Of course, the Mustangs were trounced by undefeated Liberty for the G5 New Year’s Six bid last year, so there’s an extra chip on their shoulder against the committee. — Jayna Bardahl
I’m a big believer in new coach Jon Sumrall after his time at Troy, where he inherited a program that won a combined 15 games in the previous three seasons and went 23-4 in his two years there with back-to-back Sun Belt titles. Sumrall brought both coordinators with him to Tulane and has done a solid job of adding portal talent to an already athletic Green Wave roster. The schedule offers opportunities to impress the committee with a home game against Kansas State and a road trip to Oklahoma. And Memphis, the AAC preseason favorite, will travel to New Orleans in the final game of the regular season. — Sam Khan Jr.
The Sun Belt contenders could cannibalize themselves as playoff contenders, and Liberty’s strong schedule likely won’t be all that impressive. That leaves room for someone else to break through and earn the G5’s guaranteed spot in the 12-team playoff. Coming off a reset year with nine wins (two against Power 5 schools), the Bulldogs return quarterback Mikey Keene and have the schedule to make a nice run, even with head coach Jeff Tedford set to retire this summer. — Antonio Morales
(Top illustration photos: Chris Jones, Vincent Carchietta / USA Today)
